Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to consider the implicit effect of the underlying foreign currency exposure on the performance characteristics of country exchange traded funds.
Design/methodology/approach
To arrive at an overall estimation of the exchange-traded fund (ETF)’s tracking error, the mean of the three measures of tracking error was calculated for both the hedged (r_LC) and unhedged (r_NAV) return series. Since tracking error does not capture all the risk inherent in a country index fund, the study extends the analysis using the Sortino and Modified Sharpe ratios.
Findings
The decision to hedge currency risk should not be taken on the sole basis of historical volatilities. The investor must also factor in transactions costs, the possible roll of futures contracts and prevailing interest rate differentials. If the rate on the foreign currency is greater than the dollar (euro) rate, the investor will pay for the hedge. If the rate on the foreign currency is less than the dollar (euro) rate, the investor will gain on the trade. Given that hedging entails additional costs, in cases where the neutralization of currency volatility only reduces risk modestly, it would be advisable to leave the exchange rate risk unhedged. We propose two metrics for ETF investors deciding whether to hedge a country ETF’s underlying currency risk.
Originality/value
The results highlight a key finding: while the majority of country funds accurately track the performance of the underlying foreign index when measured in the local currency, returns in the fund currency can be much more volatile. In breaking down the sources of country fund volatility, the paper demonstrates the impact of the underlying currency movements on overall fund risk. In cases where the currency impact has a significant impact on fund tracking errors, an index-oriented investor benefits from neutralizing the exchange rate effect. Additionally, as the Sortino and Modified Sharpe measures suggest that the underlying currency exposure offers in most cases a better risk-adjusted return for country exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the listing currency, we also calculate the risk minimizing foreign currency exposure for each fund and propose a decision rule based on the net currency variance to decide whether to hedge the ETF’s currency risk. The optimal hedge ratio indicates that US-based investors should only partially hedge the underlying currency risk while European-based investors are better off fully hedging currency risk.
Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies
