scholarly journals Prediction of Future Natural Suitable Areas for Rice under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1580
Author(s):  
Peng Su ◽  
Anyu Zhang ◽  
Ran Wang ◽  
Jing’ai Wang ◽  
Yuan Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Maxent Model

Extreme temperature events, which are part of global climate change, are a growing threat to crop production, especially to such temperature-sensitive crops as rice. As a result, the traditional rice-growing areas are also likely to shift. The MaxEnt model was used for predicting the areas potentially suitable for rice in the short term (2016–2035) and in the medium term (2046–2065) and under two scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, namely representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (the intermediate scenario) and RCP 8.5 (sometimes referred to as the worst-case scenario). The predictions, on verification, were seen to be highly accurate: the AUC—area under the curve—value of the MaxEnt model was > 0.85. The model made the following predictions. (1) Areas highly suitable for rice crops will continue to be concentrated mainly in the current major rice-production areas, and areas only marginally suitable will be concentrated mainly in the rainforest region. (2) Overall, although the current pattern of the distribution of such areas would remain more or less unchanged, their extent will mainly decrease in the subtropics but increase in the tropics and in high-latitude regions. (3) The extent of such areas will decrease in the short term but increase in the medium term.

scholarly journals Climate change and snow tourism in Australia

1999 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. König
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Ski Resorts ◽  
Australian Alps ◽  
Ski Industry

Abstract. This paper examines impacts of climate change as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCQ on the snow-reliability ofthe Australian ski fields. It is shown that with a «best case» climate scenario for the Australian Alps, all but one resort (Mt Baw Baw) would have at least 60 days of natural snowcover in 2030 and would therefore still be snow-reliable. With a «worst case» scenario in 2070 on the other hand, none of Australia's current ski resorts would be able to operate a profitable ski industry. Possible adaptation strategies of the ski industry to climate change are suggested. It is demonstrated that the more technical adaptation strategies such as snow-making, super-grooming, and snow-farming are well-developed in Australia, while clearly not enough has been done in both the development of non-snow related activities in winter and an enhanced all-season Visitation. This paper therefore argues that Australian ski resorts need to diversify more than they do today or they will ultimately close due to the negative effects of climate change.

Variations of disinfection by-product levels in small drinking water utilities according to climate change scenarios: a first assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Delpla ◽  
A. Scheili ◽  
S. Guilherme ◽  
G. Cool ◽  
M. J. Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Treatment ◽  
Drinking Water Treatment ◽  
Water Utilities ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Small Water ◽  
Water Treatment Process

In Québec, Canada, shifts in climate patterns (i.e., rainfall increase) could have consequences on source water quality due to the intensification of surface/groundwater runoff contamination events, leading to a decline in drinking water treatment efficiency and ultimately disinfection by-products (DBPs) formation following treatment. To assess the impacts of climate change (CC) scenarios on DBP formation, a suite of models linking climate to DBPs was used. This study applies three emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for three 30-year horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080) in order to produce inputs to test several DBP models (total trihalomethanes (TTHMs), haloacetic acids and haloacetonitriles). An annual increase is estimated for all DBPs for each CC scenario and horizon. The highest seasonal increases were estimated for winter for all DBP groups or species. In the worst-case scenario (A2-2080), TTHMs could be affected more particularly during winter (+34.0%), followed by spring (+16.1%) and fall (+4.4%), whereas summer concentrations would remain stable (−0.3 to +0.4%). Potentially, small water utilities applying only a disinfection step could be more affected by rising TTHMs concentrations associated with CC than those having implemented a complete water treatment process (coagulation–flocculation, filtration and disinfection) with +13.6% and +8.2% increases respectively (A2-2080).

scholarly journals Predicting the impact of COVID-19 on fertility in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 325 ◽  
pp. 06008
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Fahrudin Alfana ◽  
Hidayati Nur Rohmah ◽  
Salma Nurulhuda ◽  
Mohammad Isnaini Sadali
Keyword(s):  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Basic Data ◽  
Contraceptive Methods ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Births ◽  
Pregnancy And Birth ◽  
Special Region

The aim of this research is to explain the predicted impact of Covid-19 on fertility in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY). The indicators used are the number of pregnancies and the number of births. To get pregnancy and birth predictions, various basic data were processed using the Spectrum program using the DemProj and Famplan modules, then analyzed by descriptive analysis. The basic data is collected from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and other relevant agencies. The result shows that birth and pregnancies in DIY will increase. This prediction is based on the decreasing use of short -term contraceptive methods during the pandemic. In the worst-case scenario, the rise in pregnancies between 2019-2020 would be 67,862 cases, meanwhile births are expected to increase by 37.56 thousand cases during the same period.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1803
Author(s):  
Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Precipitation and temperature around the world are expected to be altered by climate change. This will cause regional alterations to the hydrological cycle. For proper water management, anticipating these changes is necessary. In this study, the basin of Lake Erken (Sweden) was simulated with the recently released software SWAT+ to study such alterations in a short (2026–2050), medium (2051–2075) and long (2076–2100) period, under two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85). Seven global climate models from the latest projections of future climates that are available (CIMP 6) were compared and ensembled. A bias-correction of the models’ data was performed with five different methods to select the most appropriate one. Results showed that the temperature is expected to increase in the future from 2 to 4 °C, and precipitation from 6% to 20%, depending on the scenario. As a result, water discharge would also increase by about 18% in the best-case scenario and by 50% in the worst-case scenario, and the surface runoff would increase between 5% and 30%. The floods and torrential precipitations would also increase in the basin. This trend could lead to soil impoverishment and reduced water availability in the basin, which could damage the watershed’s forests. In addition, rising temperatures would result in a 65% reduction in the snow water equivalent at best and 92% at worst.

scholarly journals Effect of Global Warming on Indian Agriculture

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruchita Shah ◽  
Rohit Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Nutrient Management ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Indian Agriculture ◽  
Cropping Season ◽  
Lower Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

<p><em>Agriculture is the backbone of Indian economy</em><em> which in turn relies on the monsoon season. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that the global mean surface temperature will likely rise and may result into uneven climatic changes such as irregular rainfall patterns, increased surface temperature and elevated CO<sub>2</sub> content in the atmosphere. Research studies indicate that weathering parameters influence strongly (67%) compared to other factors like soil and nutrient management (33%) during the cropping season. Researchers have confirmed that crop yield falls by 3</em><em>-</em><em>5% for every 1°F increase in the temperature. Present study shows that the crop production is dependent on temperature and shows a funnel shape for all the seasons. At lower temperature both the properties are almost linearly correlated, whereas at higher temperatures, it increases but with large scattering. The findings may be helpful to study the effect of climate change on the crop production.</em></p>

scholarly journals Determination of the Area Affected by Agricultural Burning

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel F. Prato ◽  
Jose I. Huertas
Keyword(s):  
Burning Rate ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Area Source ◽  
Influence Area ◽  
Agricultural Burning ◽  
Area Of Influence

Agricultural burning is still a common practice around the world. It is associated with the high emission of air pollutants, including short-term climate change forcing pollutants such as black carbon and PM2.5. The legal requirements to start any regulatory actions to control them is the identification of its area of influence. However, this task is challenging from the experimental and modeling point of view, since it is a short-term event with a moving area source of pollutants. In this work, we assessed this agricultural burning influence-area using the US Environmental authorities recommended air dispersion model (AERMOD). We considered different sizes and geometries of burning areas located on flat terrains, and several crops burning under the worst-case scenario of meteorological conditions. The influence area was determined as the largest area where the short-term concentrations of pollutants (1 h or one day) exceed the local air quality standards. We found that this area is a band around the burning area whose size increases with the burning rate but not with its size. Finally, we suggested alternatives of public policy to regulate this activity, which is based on limiting the burning-rate in the way that no existing households remain inside the resulting influence-area. However, this policy should be understood as a transition towards a policy that forbids agricultural burning.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 404-414
Author(s):  
Satchit Balsari ◽  
Caleb Dresser ◽  
Jennifer Leaning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Human Migration ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Civil Strife ◽  
Changing Climate

Abstract Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

scholarly journals Consequences of climate change in the availability of water in the Southeast of the Iberian Peninsula. Evaluation of the INVEST hydrological model in future scenarios

2018 ◽  
pp. 26-42
Author(s):  
Pedro Pérez Cutillas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Península Ibérica

El sureste de la Península Ibérica se caracteriza por una trascendental escasez de agua, cada vez más agravada por los efectos del cambio climático. Para valorar sus consecuencias, se elaboró un análisis combinado de 30 cuencas mediante el modelo hidrológico del programa de evaluación de servicios ecosistémicos InVEST. La metodología empleada se basó en escenarios de concentración de gases de efecto invernadero, representados en niveles de fuerza de radiación de condición intermedia (RCP4.5) y extrema (RCP8.5); y proyectados para dos periodos, a corto plazo (2020-2050) y medio plazo (2070-2100). Los resultados mostraron unas tendencias de cambio en los escenarios analizados, con descensos promedio respecto a los registros actuales del 15% en precipitación, y aumentos promedio del 5% en la evapotranspiración de referencia. La reducción en la disponibilidad hídrica de las cuencas, proporcionaron tasas de variación negativas entre el 30 y 50% para los escenarios más realistas (RCP45 2050 y RCP45 2100). Los efectos en la disminución de los recursos hídricos debidos al cambio climático son evidentes, siendo necesarias soluciones urgentes relacionadas con la gestión del agua y sus demandas futuras. Water scarcity characterizes the environments of the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, and it is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change. An analysis of 30 basins was perform to assess their consequences through the hydrological model of the ecosystem services assessme nt InVEST. Scenarios of concentration of greenhouse gases were used, that represent intermediate and extreme conditions in the level of radiative forcing values (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), projected for two periods, short term (2020 - 2050) and medium term (2070 - 2 100). In the analyzed scenarios, the results indicated some trends of change, showing average decreases of 15% in precipitation, and average increases of 5% in potential evapotranspiration, regarding current values. Water yield showed a decrease, with nega tive variation rates between 30 and 50% for the most realistic scenarios (RCP45 2050 and RCP45 2100). The effects on the decrease of water resources due to climate change are visible, therefore solutions related to water management and future services will be demanded.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (16) ◽  
pp. 1-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Montenegro Lapola ◽  
Ruediger Schaldach ◽  
Joseph Alcamo ◽  
Alberte Bondeau ◽  
Siwa Msangi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Worst Case

Abstract Climate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e.g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause additional deforestation of 181 000 km2 (+20%) in the Amazon and 240 000 km2 (+273%) in the Cerrado compared to a scenario of moderate climate change. Putting an end to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon forest by 2020 (and of the Cerrado by 2025) would require either a reduction of 26%–40% in livestock production until 2050 or a doubling of average livestock density from 0.74 to 1.46 head per hectare. These results suggest that (i) climate change can affect land use in ways not previously explored, such as the reduction of yields entailing further deforestation, and (ii) there is a need for an integrated/multidisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon.

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