scholarly journals Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Jing Yang ◽  
Robert Bergquist
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Parasite Stage ◽  
Near Future

Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S. mansoni and S. haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.

scholarly journals Reservoir yield intercomparison of large dams in Jaguaribe Basin-CE in climate change scenarios

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato de Oliveira Fernandes ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Great Divergence ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reservoir Yield

ABSTRACT Climate changes can have different impacts on water resources. Strategies to adapt to climate changes depend on impact studies. In this context, this study aimed to estimate the impact that changes in precipitation, projected by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) may cause on reservoir yield (Q90) of large reservoirs (Castanhão and Banabuiú), located in the Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceará. The rainfall data are from 20 GCMs using two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The precipitation projections were used as input data for the rainfall-runoff model (SMAP) and, after the reservoirs’ inflow generation, the reservoir yields were simulated in the AcquaNet model, for the time periods of 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results were analyzed and presented a great divergence, in sign (increase or decrease) and in the magnitude of change of Q90. However, most Q90 projections indicated reduction in both reservoirs, for the two periods, especially at the end of the 21th century.

scholarly journals Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Simulate the Current Temperature Only If the Shortwave Radiation Anomaly of the 2000s Has Been Omitted

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Antero Ollila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Paris Climate Agreement

The research article of Gillett et al. was published in Nature Climate Change (NCC) in March 2021. The objective of the NCC study was to simulate human-induced forcings to warming by applying 13 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate models. NCC did not accept the author’s remarks as a “Matters arising” article. The purpose of this article is to detail the original three remarks and one additional remark: 1) the discrepancy between the graphs and reported numerical values, 2) the forcings of aerosols and clouds, 3) the positive water feedback, and 4) the calculation basis of the Paris agreement. The most important finding is that General Circulation Models (GCMs) used in simulations omit the significant shortwave anomaly from 2001 to 2019, which causes a temperature error of 0.3°C according to climate change physics of Gillett et al. For the year 2019, this error is 0.8°C showing the magnitude of shortwave anomaly impact. The main reason for this error turns out to be the positive water feedback generally applied in climate models. The scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement is faulty for the same reason.

Reliability of current Spanish irrigation designs in a changed climate: a case study

2010 ◽  
Vol 149 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. UTSET ◽  
B. DEL RÍO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Northern Spain ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Near Future

SUMMARYA very serious effort to modernize irrigation systems is being made in Spain, to reduce water and energy losses in an environmentally sustainable way. This is expensive and it is important that the new irrigation systems work properly over a long period. The systems have been designed taking into account historical evapotranspiration (ET) averages during the months of maximum demand, as well as the crop-specific ET values (Kc coefficients) of typical crops. However, the increase in ET rates due to global warming could mean that the capacity of these new and expensive irrigation systems to fulfil the crop water requirements may be exceeded in the near future. However, the expected increase in CO2 concentration could diminish crop transpiration rates for similar water demands from the atmosphere, thereby reducing irrigation requirements. A methodology was developed in order to estimate crop water requirements under climate change conditions. The reliability of a new irrigation system designed in Valladolid, Northern Spain was tested. The regionalized climate change scenarios for Valladolid, provided by the National Institute of Meteorology, were used for the periods 2011–40, 2041–70 and 2071–2100 and the A2 and B2 emission scenarios were considered using the ECHAM and coupled general circulation model (CGCM) global circulation models. A historical series of daily meteorological data for Valladolid was used to generate statistical ET distributions through the LARS-WG generator. Simulations considered each of the above periods, global circulation models (GCM) and emission scenarios. Furthermore, the Kc of the typical irrigated crops of the zone (maize, potato and sugar beet) were reduced for each period, GCM and emission scenario according to the relationships between CO2 concentrations and transpiration obtained by Kruijt et al. (2008). The results indicated that, on average, historical ET rates provide a sufficiently robust indicator to enable estimations of the crop ET in the future, particularly considering the CO2 effect in reducing crop transpiration. However, ET variability is significantly increased after 2040, especially for the A2 emission scenario. The results show that ET variability rather than global increase is the most serious risk that current irrigation systems must face in the near future in Northern Spain, as consequence of climate change. Such variability should be included in irrigation designs.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 10157-10195 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Basheer ◽  
H. Lu ◽  
A. Omer ◽  
A. B. Ali ◽  
A. M. S. Abdelgader
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
National Park ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. The fate of seasonal rivers ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge, which related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in Dinder River Basin (DRB), and infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in the Sudan. Two global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with hydrological model (SWAT) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under the most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow was more sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during (1960s, 1970s and 1980s), the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration of the flora and fauna habitats'.

scholarly journals Pan-spectral observing system simulation experiments of shortwave reflectance and long-wave radiance for climate model evaluation

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1943-1954 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Feldman ◽  
W. D. Collins ◽  
J. L. Paige
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Spectral Measurements ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Hadley Centre

Abstract. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectrally resolved shortwave reflectances and long-wave radiances describe the response of the Earth's surface and atmosphere to feedback processes and human-induced forcings. In order to evaluate proposed long-duration spectral measurements, we have projected 21st Century changes from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 Emissions Scenario onto shortwave reflectance spectra from 300 to 2500 nm and long-wave radiance spectra from 2000 to 200 cm−1 at 8 nm and 1 cm−1 resolution, respectively. The radiative transfer calculations have been rigorously validated against published standards and produce complementary signals describing the climate system forcings and feedbacks. Additional demonstration experiments were performed with the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) models for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The calculations contain readily distinguishable signatures of low clouds, snow/ice, aerosols, temperature gradients, and water vapour distributions. The goal of this effort is to understand both how climate change alters reflected solar and emitted infrared spectra of the Earth and determine whether spectral measurements enhance our detection and attribution of climate change. This effort also presents a path forward to understand the characteristics of hyperspectral observational records needed to confront models and inline instrument simulation. Such simulation will enable a diverse set of comparisons between model results from coupled model intercomparisons and existing and proposed satellite instrument measurement systems.

scholarly journals ROUTINE, EXTREME AND ENGINEERING METEOROLOGY ANALYSIS FOR KARACHI COASTAL AREA

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Muhammad Taqui ◽  
Jabir Hussain Syed ◽  
Ghulam Hassan Askari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Interdisciplinary Field

Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi, which is industrial centre and economic hub needs focus in research and development of every field of Engineering, Science and Technology. Urbanization and industrialization is resulting bad weather conditions which prolongs until a climate change. Since, Meteorology serves as interdisciplinary field of study, an analytical study of real and region-specific meteorological data is conducted which focuses on routine, extreme and engineering meteorology of metropolitan city Karachi. Results of study endorse the meteorological parameters relationship and establish the variability of those parameters for Karachi Coastal Area. The rise of temperature, decreasing trend of atmospheric pressure, increment in precipitation and fall in relative humidity depict the effects of urbanization and industrialization. The recorded extreme maximum temperature of 45.50C (on June 11, 1988) and the extreme minimum temperature of 4.5 0C(on January 1, 2007) is observed at Karachi south meteorological station. The estimated temperature rise in 32 years is 0.9 0C, which is crossing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted/estimated limit of 2oC rise per century. The maximum annual precipitation of 487.0mm appearing in 1994 and the minimum annual precipitation of 2.5mm appearing in 1987 is observed at same station which is representative meteorological station for Karachi Coast. Further Engineering meteorological parameters for heating ventilation air condition (HVAC) system design for industrial purpose are deduced as supporting data for coastal area site study for industrial as well as any follow-up engineering work in the specified region.

scholarly journals Response of ENSO and the Mean State of the Tropical Pacific to Extratropical Cooling and Warming: A Study Using the IAP Coupled Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (22) ◽  
pp. 5902-5917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Yu ◽  
D-Z. Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The coupled model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) is used to investigate the effects of extratropical cooling and warming on the tropical Pacific climate. The IAP coupled model is a fully coupled GCM without any flux correction. The model has been used in many aspects of climate modeling, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate change and paleoclimate simulations. In this study, the IAP coupled model is subjected to cooling or heating over the extratropical Pacific. As in an earlier study, the cooling and heating is imposed over the extratropical region poleward of 10°N–10°S. Consistent with earlier findings, an elevated (reduced) level of ENSO activity in response to an increase (decrease) in the cooling over the extratropical region is found. The changes in the time-mean structure of the equatorial upper ocean are also found to be very different between the case in which ocean–atmosphere is coupled over the equatorial region and the case in which the ocean–atmosphere over the equatorial region is decoupled. For example, in the uncoupled run, the thermocline water across the entire equatorial Pacific is cooled in response to an increase in the extratropical cooling. In the corresponding coupled run, the changes in the equatorial upper-ocean temperature in the extratropical cooling resemble a La Niña situation—a deeper thermocline in the western and central Pacific accompanied by a shallower thermocline in the eastern Pacific. Conversely, with coupling, the response of the equatorial upper ocean to extratropical cooling resembles an El Niño situation. These results ascertain the role of extratropical ocean in determining the amplitude of ENSO. The results also underscore the importance of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the interaction between the tropical Pacific and the extratropical Pacific.

scholarly journals The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (11) ◽  
pp. 2341-2359 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Roberts ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
C. Senior ◽  
H. T. Hewitt ◽  
C. Bates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

AbstractThe time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short time scales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal time scales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such time scales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability and the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modeling capability to address these requirements—specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g., flooding, drought, tropical and midlatitude storms).

scholarly journals The study of potential evapotranspiration in future periods due to climate change in west of Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Rajabi ◽  
Zahra Babakhani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Change Effect ◽  
Climate Change Effect

Purpose This study aims to present the climate change effect on potential evapotranspiration (ETP) in future periods. Design/methodology/approach Daily minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation weather parameters have been downscaled by global circulation model (GCM) and Lars-WG outputs. Weather data have been estimated according to the Had-CM3 GCM and by A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in three periods: 2011-2030, 2045-2046 and 2080-2099. To select the more suitable method for ETP estimation, the Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) method and the Priestly–Taylor (P-T) method have been compared with the Penman-Monteith (P-M) method. Regarding the fact that the H-S method has been in better accordance with the P-M method, ETP in future periods has been estimated by this method for different scenarios. Findings In all five stations, in all three scenarios and in all three periods, ETP will increase. The highest ETP increase will occur in the A1B scenario and then in the A1 scenario. The lowest increase will occur in the B1 scenario. In the 2020 decade, the highest ETP increase in three scenarios will occur in Khorramabad and then Hamedan. Kermanshah, Sanandaj and Ilam stations come at third to fifth place, respectively, with a close increase in amount. In the 2050 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios are close to each other in all the five stations. In the 2080 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios will be close to each other in four stations, namely, Kermanshah, Sanandaj, Khorramabad and Hamedan, and Ilam station will have a higher increase compared with the other four stations. Originality/value Meanwhile, the highest ETP increase will occur in hot months of the year, which are significant with regard to irrigation and water resources.

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