scholarly journals The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-Making

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kebing Chen ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Shaokun He ◽  
Tao Xu ◽  
Yixuan Zhong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Importance Ranking ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
The One

The controlled outflows from a reservoir are highly dependent on the decisions made by the reservoir operators who mainly rely on available hydrologic information, such as past outflows, reservoir water level and forecasted inflows. In this study, Random Forests (RF) algorithm is used to build reservoir outflow simulation model to evaluate the value of hydrologic information. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. As input variables of the model, the classic hydrologic information is divided into past, current and future information. Several different simulation models are established based on the combinations of these three groups of information. The influences and value of hydrologic information on reservoir outflow decision-making are evaluated from two different perspectives, the one is the simulation result of different models and the other is the importance ranking of the input variables in RF algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to reasonably simulate outflow decisions of TGR. It is shown that past outflow is the most important information and the forecasted inflows are more important in the flood season than in the non-flood season for reservoir operation decision-making.

Learning from failures: Design improvements using a multiple criteria decision-making process

2003 ◽  
Vol 217 (4) ◽  
pp. 207-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
G G Davidson ◽  
A W Labib
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Mathematical Representation ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Invaluable Tool ◽  
History Of

This paper proposes a new concept of decision analysis based on a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) process. This is achieved through the provision of a systematic and generic methodology for the implementation of design improvements based on experience of past failures. This is illustrated in the form of a case study identifying the changes made to Concorde after the 2000 accident. The proposed model uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) mathematical model as a backbone and integrates elements of a modified failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). The AHP has proven to be an invaluable tool for decision support since it allows a fully documented and transparent decision to be made with full accountability. In addition, it facilitates the task of justifying improvement decisions. The paper is divided as follows: the first section presents an outline of the background to the Concorde accident and its history of related (non-catastrophic) malfunctions. The AHP methodology and its mathematical representation are then presented with the integrated FMEA applied to the Concorde accident. The case study arrives at the same conclusion as engineers working on Concorde after the accident: that the aircraft may fly again if the lining of the fuel tanks are modified.

scholarly journals Research and Application of Key Technologies for Dynamic Control of Reservoir Water Level in Flood Season

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3576
Author(s):  
Jun Zhang ◽  
Yaowu Min ◽  
Baofei Feng ◽  
Weixin Duan
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Dynamic Control ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Danjiangkou Reservoir ◽  
Flood Season

In today’s reservoir operation study, it is urgent to solve the issues on improving flood resource utilization, maximizing reservoir impoundment, and guaranteeing water supply through real-time regulation optimization under the premise of ensuring flood control safety and taking risks properly. Based on previous studies, the key real-time operation technologies for dynamic control of reservoir water levels in flood season are summarized. The Danjiangkou Reservoir was taken as an example, the division of flood stages, reservoir water level requirements for improving water supply guarantee, dynamic control indexes of reservoir water level for beneficial use in stages during the flood season, and flood control dispatching indexes are proposed. Moreover, a practicable real-time flood forecast operation scheme for Danjiangkou Reservoir was compiled. Its application in 2017 indicated that the established scheme can provide strong technical support to ensure the overall benefits of Danjiangkou Reservoir, including flood control, water supply, and power generation.

scholarly journals A fuzzy-TOPSIS model for maintenance outsourcing considering the quality of submitted tender documents

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-453
Author(s):  
Maysa Alshraideh ◽  
Shereen Ababneh ◽  
Elif Elcin Gunay ◽  
Omar Al-Araidah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Selection Criteria ◽  
Fuzzy Topsis ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Maintenance Outsourcing ◽  
Multiple Experts ◽  
Decision Making Model

The paper provides a multiple-experts Fuzzy-TOPSIS decision-making model for the selection among maintenance contractors based on the quality of tendering documents. The study introduces a set of selection criteria utilizing benefit and cost criteria from literature. The proposed model aggregates subjective linguistic assessments of multiple experts that express their opinions on the degree of importance of criteria and allows multiple decisionmakers to evaluate the compliance of contractors’ documents. For a case study, the model is applied to select among contractors tendering to maintain the heavy-duty cranes of an international steel company from literature. Several decision-making scenarios are investigated, and major changes in the final decision are observed. The changes in obtained results illustrate the need to better address uncertainties in rating and tendering an overqualified contractor at a higher cost.

scholarly journals Modelling groundwater level fluctuation in an Indian coastal aquifer

Water SA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (4 October) ◽  
Author(s):  
Safieh Javadinejad ◽  
Rebwar Dara ◽  
Forough Jafary
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Coastal Aquifer ◽  
M5 Model Tree ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Soft Computing Techniques ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Lag Times ◽  
Observation Wells

Estimating groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations is a vital requirement in hydrology and hydraulic engineering, and is commonly addressed through artificial intelligence (AI) models. The purpose of this research was to estimate groundwater levels using new modelling methods. The implementation of two separate soft computing techniques, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) and an M5 model tree (M5-MT), was examined. The models are used in the estimation of monthly GWLs observed in a shallow unconfined coastal aquifer. Data for the water level were collected from observation wells located near Ganjimatta, India, and used to estimate GWL fluctuation. To do this, two scenarios were provided to achieve optimal input variables for modelling the GWL at the present time. The input parameters applied for developing the proposed models were a monthly time-series of summed rainfall, the mean temperature (within its lag times that have an effect on groundwater), and historical GWL observations throughout the period 1996–2006. The efficiency of each proposed model for Ganjimatt was investigated in stages of trial and error. A performance evaluation showed that the M5-MT outperformed the MLPNN model in estimating the GWL in the aquifer case study. Based on the M5-MT approach, the development of this model gives acceptable results for the Indian coastal aquifers. It is recommended that water managers and decision makers apply these new methods to monitor groundwater conditions and inform future planning.

scholarly journals The Impact of Reservoir Fluctuations on Reactivated Large Landslides: A Case Study

Geofluids ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javed Iqbal ◽  
Xinbin Tu ◽  
Wei Gao
Keyword(s):  
Slip Surface ◽  
Strength Reduction ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Silty Mudstone ◽  
Jinsha River ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
The Impact

Filling of Xiangjiaba Reservoir Lake in the Southwest China triggered and reactivated numerous landslides due to water fluctuation. In order to understand the relationship between reservoirs and slope instability, a typical reservoir landslide (Dasha landslide) at the right bank of Jinsha River was selected as a case study for in-depth investigations. The detailed field investigations were carried out to identify the landslide with respect to its surroundings and to find out the slip surface. Boreholes were drilled to find out the subsurface lithology and the depth of failure of Dasha landslide. The in situ geotechnical tests were performed, and the soil samples from exposed slip surface were retrieved for geotechnical laboratory analysis. Finally, stability analysis was done using the 3D strength reduction method under different conditions of reservoir water level fluctuations and rainfall conditions. The in-depth investigations show that the Dasha landslide is a bedding rockslide which was once activated in 1986. The topography of Dasha landslide is relatively flat, while the back scarp and local terrain is relatively steep. The total volume of landslides is about 580×104 m3 with an average thickness of 20 m. Bedrock in the landslide area is composed of Suining Formation of the Jurassic age. The main rock type is silty mudstone with sandstone, and the bedding orientation is 300~310° ∠ 7~22°. The factor of safety (FOS) of Dasha landslide obtained by 3D strength reduction cannot meet the minimum safety requirement under the working condition of reservoir level fluctuation as designed, with effect of rainfall and rapid drawdown.

Revising the Kano model for designing an employee compensation system

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-91
Author(s):  
Hossein Vaez Shahrestani ◽  
Arash Shahin ◽  
Hadi Teimouri ◽  
Ali Shaemi Barzoki
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Compensation System ◽  
Kano Model ◽  
Employee Compensation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Compensation Systems ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The One

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to revise the Kano model with a focus on one-dimensional attributes; and second, to use the revised model for categorizing and prioritizing various employee compensation strategies. Design/methodology/approach The Kano evaluation table has been revised and the one-dimensional attribute has been further extended to three categories of OO, OM and OA. In the next step, the literature review-based identified strategies have been categorized and prioritized according to the developed Kano model. Consequently, an employee compensation system has been proposed to a process-based manufacturing company as a case study. Findings Findings indicated that out of the 44 employee compensation strategies, typically 6 were must-be, 13 were one-dimensional, 18 were attractive and 7 were indifferent. Also, the results of the revised Kano model indicated that typically out of the 13 one-dimensional strategies, 7 were one-dimensional tending toward must-be (OM); and 6 were one-dimensional tending toward attractive (OA). Research limitations/implications The case study was limited to one company. The validity of the proposed model can be further studied in a larger population. This study provides managers with a more accurate instrument of decision making in selecting more differentiated employee compensation strategies, which, in turn, might lead to more employee satisfaction. Originality/value Theoretically, this study is different from existing studies, since almost none of the previous studies extended the Kano evaluation table for one-dimensional attributes. Practically, this study is another evidence of the application of the Kano model in the field of human resource management and in particular contributes to the design of employee compensation systems.

A novel model for risk management of outsourced construction projects using decision-making methods: a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Mahmoudi ◽  
Mehdi Abbasi ◽  
Xiaopeng Deng ◽  
Muhammad Ikram ◽  
Salman Yeganeh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Suitable Alternative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
First Time

PurposeSelecting a suitable contract to outsource construction projects is an ongoing concern for project managers and organizational directors. This study aims to propose a comprehensive model to manage the risks of outsourced construction project contracts.Design/methodology/approachTo employ the proposed model, firstly, the types of contracts and risks in the organization should be identified, then, to prioritize the contracts, the identified risks are considered as criteria. After receiving the experts' opinions, the best–worst method (BWM) integrated with grey relation analysis (GRA) method was used to prioritize the contracts. BWM and GRA are multi-criteria decision-making methods with different approaches and applications. In the current study, BWM has been employed to calculate the weights of criteria because it has better performance than other methods such as the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). After calculating the weights of criteria, the GRA method has been utilized for ranking the alternatives.FindingsAccording to the results obtained from the case study, the cost plus award fee contract is the most suitable alternative for outsourcing construction projects. The proposed methodology can be practically applied through different types of the projects such as construction or “engineering, procurement and construction”.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a conceptual model has been proposed to select an appropriate contract for construction projects. Also, for the first time, the BWM integrated with GRA method has been used to prioritize project contracts based on the potential risks. The proposed model can contribute to project managers for selecting a suitable contract with the least risk in construction projects.

Strategic Decision Making for Outsourcing Information Systems with a Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision-Making Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Modiri ◽  
Mohammad Dashti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Service Support ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Network Process ◽  
Selection Of

Today, IS supplier selection is one of the most critical steps in the outsourcing process; the success of outsourcing is highly dependent on the selection of IS suppliers. This paper proposes a new hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, which uses decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, analytic network process (ANP), and Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje(VIKOR) to evaluate four potential suppliers using seven factors and five decision makers using a realistic case study. the results showed that Service support is importance for outsourcing. The proposed model can help practitioners improve their decision making process.

scholarly journals Decision-Making Tool for Enhancing the Sustainable Management of Cultural Institutions: Season Content Programming at Palau De La Música Catalana

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5785
Author(s):  
Maria del Mar Casanovas-Rubio ◽  
Carolina Christen ◽  
Luz María Valarezo ◽  
Jaume Bofill ◽  
Nela Filimon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Cultural Institutions ◽  
Cultural Institution ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Cultural Sector

There has been an increasing relevance of the cultural sector in the economic and social development of different countries. However, this sector continues without much input from multi-criteria decision-making (MDCM) techniques and sustainability analysis, which are widely used in other sectors. This paper proposes an MCDM model to assess the sustainability of a musical institution’s program. To define the parameters of the proposed model, qualitative interviews with relevant representatives of Catalan cultural institutions and highly recognized professionals in the sector were performed. The content of the 2015–2016 season of the ‘Palau de la Música Catalana’, a relevant Catalan musical institution located in Barcelona, was used as a case study to empirically test the method. The method allows the calculation of a season value index (SVI), which serves to make more sustainable decisions on musical season programs according to the established criteria. The sensitivity analysis carried out for different scenarios shows the robustness of the method. The research suggests that more complex decision settings, such as MCDM methods that are widely used in other sectors, can be easily applied to the sustainable management of any type of cultural institution. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this method was never applied to a cultural institution and with real data.

ANALYSIS AND EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE IMPETUS AND RESISTANCE OF BPR BASED ON A MECHANICAL DYNAMICS MODEL

2008 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 137-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHU PING YI ◽  
TING WANG ◽  
YI WANG ◽  
DE HAI YU
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systems Analysis ◽  
Business Process Reengineering ◽  
Process Reengineering ◽  
Dynamics Analysis ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Important Input ◽  
Mechanical Dynamics

This paper provides concrete support for business process reengineering (BPR) related decision-making, through analysis of the mechanism of impetus and resistance. We categorize the impetus and resistance according to their domains. We then construct a dynamic model of BPR by using the principles and methods of systems analysis, in conjunction with the theory of mechanical dynamics. On this basis, dynamics analysis of the two forces was carried out and the mechanism of effect was also discussed. In the case study, experimental analysis of BPR in CF Company was carried out with the proposed model. The results showed that the model is applied to analyze the impetus and resistance in BPR as important input into the decision-making for BPR, thus compelling to implement BPR for the enterprise.

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