Development of Composite Indicators of Cyclical Response in Business Surveys

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-41
Author(s):  
L. A. Kitrar ◽  
T. M. Lipkind
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Economic Behavior ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Composite Indicators ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Output

The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Property such as a statistically significant lead in time series or earlier publication allows them to be combined into indicators of early response. The composite Business Activity Indicator (BAI) in the basic sectors of the Russian economy is calculated by the authors for the first time based on the results of regular (monthly and quarterly) business surveys of Rosstat for 1998–2020 with a large-scale coverage of sampling units. In 2020, the number of survey respondents averaged about 20,000 organizations of all sizes. The index reflects the «common» profile in the dynamics of short-term fluctuations of the key parameters of the economic environment, which consists of the «balances of opinions» of respondents to the questions unified for all sectoral surveys and connected with the reference quantitative statistics with cross-correlation coefficients that are statistically significantly different from zero, with a lead at least one quarter. This is its main difference from the well-known indices of economic sentiment and entrepreneurial confidence. The main components of the BAI are the new composite indices of real demand, current output, real employment, total profits and economic situation. They aggregate the relevant «order» statistics for the basic sectors of the national economy, including the main kinds of industrial activities, retail trade, construction, and services.The article provides a methodological substantiation and an extended procedure for identifying the BAI components; their composition is formed for the entire set of retrospective results of business tendency monitoring in Russia. A new Aggregate Economic Vulnerability Indicator with a counterdirectional profile and varying degrees of symmetry of its dynamics relative to the short-term movement of the BAI is being introduced as the main limitation of business activity. Proactive monitoring of emerging vulnerabilities in the business environment is necessary to warn their large-scale accumulation, prevent the risks of economic downturns and ensure the highest possible macroeconomic stability. This integrated approach makes it possible to determine the novelty of the proposed measurements of short-term cyclical fluctuations in economic development.

Plant Foods versus Compounds in Carcinogenesis; Observational versus Experimental Human Studies

2003 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kampman ◽  
Arts ◽  
Hollman
Keyword(s):  
Biological Markers ◽  
Observational Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Human Studies ◽  
Study Endpoint ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Plant Foods

The protective role of plant foods and its constituents in cancer prevention is under renewed debate since the results of recent observational studies on colorectal cancer as well as large-scale human experimental studies on colorectal adenoma recurrence are disappointing. However, most short-term experimental human studies do show that plant foods favourably modulate potential cancer-preventive mechanisms. Which methodological pitfalls may explain the inconsistencies within and between different study designs? What are the advantages and limitations of the different study approaches? Observational studies do have the advantage to study the population at large with ultimate disease as the study endpoint. These studies are limited by the difficulty to estimate intake of individual compounds by questionnaires and the lack of biological markers of relevant exposure. Controlled experimental short-term studies in humans rely on biological markers of disease as intermediate endpoints. Relatively low sensitivity and specificity of these markers may complicate extrapolation of results. In the case of long-term and large-scale human intervention studies with disease endpoints, issues such as time, dose and duration of intervention, compliance and choice of the study population influence the interpretation of results. An integrated approach combining designs, and implementing new techniques to identify biomarkers, may clarify the role of plant foods in carcinogenesis.

Financial Performance of ECIL, Hyderabad – An Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Jyothi ◽  
Dr. T. Satyanarayana Chary
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Present Position ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Comprehensive Manner

Financial performance of individual organizations differ very significantly, however, the performance is distinguishable between public sector companies and private sector companies as their nature and size of investment and business environment is different . The ECIL is a very vast growing company which requires additional funds on a regular basis, whether internal or external. Particularly, the company needs both long term and short-term finances in view of its present position and enormous scope for improvement in the services provided. The present paper is a modest attempt to discuss the financial performance analysis of ECIL, Hyderabad in terms operating profits, capital employed ratios and turnover in a comprehensive manner over a period of 10 years.

DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE OCEANOGRAPHIC MODELING AND OBSERVATION NETWORK (REMO) FOR PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY STUDIES AND OCEAN FORECASTING

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Antonio Moreira Lima
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Height Anomaly ◽  
The North ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Ocean Forecasting

This paper is concerned with the planning, implementation and some results of the Oceanographic Modeling and Observation Network, named REMO, for Brazilian regional waters. Ocean forecasting has been an important scientific issue over the last decade due to studies related to climate change as well as applications related to short-range oceanic forecasts. The South Atlantic Ocean has a deficit of oceanographic measurements when compared to other ocean basins such as the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific Ocean. It is a challenge to design an ocean forecasting system for a region with poor observational coverage of in-situ data. Fortunately, most ocean forecasting systems heavily rely on the assimilation of surface fields such as sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) or sea surface temperature (SST), acquired by environmental satellites, that can accurately provide information that constrain major surface current systems and their mesoscale activity. An integrated approach is proposed here in which the large scale circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is modeled in a first step, and gradually nested into higher resolution regional models that are able to resolve important processes such as the Brazil Current and associated mesoscale variability, continental shelf waves, local and remote wind forcing, and others. This article presents the overall strategy to develop the models using a network of Brazilian institutions and their related expertise along with international collaboration. This work has some similarity with goals of the international project Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment OceanView (GODAE OceanView).

scholarly journals BattleNet: Capturing Advantageous Battlefield in RTS Games (Student Abstract)

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (10) ◽  
pp. 13849-13850
Author(s):  
Donghyeon Lee ◽  
Man-Je Kim ◽  
Chang Wook Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Outcome Predictor ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rts Game

In a real-time strategy (RTS) game, StarCraft II, players need to know the consequences before making a decision in combat. We propose a combat outcome predictor which utilizes terrain information as well as squad information. For training the model, we generated a StarCraft II combat dataset by simulating diverse and large-scale combat situations. The overall accuracy of our model was 89.7%. Our predictor can be integrated into the artificial intelligence agent for RTS games as a short-term decision-making module.

scholarly journals Strategic resources and smallholder performance at the bottom of the pyramid

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Olthaar ◽  
Wilfred Dolfsma ◽  
Clemens Lutz ◽  
Florian Noseleit
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Agricultural Economics ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Bottom Of The Pyramid ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Strategic Resources ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Resource Based Theory

In a competitive business environment at the Bottom of the Pyramid smallholders supplying global value chains may be thought to be at the whims of downstream large-scale players and local market forces, leaving no room for strategic entrepreneurial behavior. In such a context we test the relationship between the use of strategic resources and firm performance. We adopt the Resource Based Theory and show that seemingly homogenous smallholders deploy resources differently and, consequently, some do outperform others. We argue that the ‘resource-based theory’ results in a more fine-grained understanding of smallholder performance than approaches generally applied in agricultural economics. We develop a mixed-method approach that allows one to pinpoint relevant, industry-specific resources, and allows for empirical identification of the relative contribution of each resource to competitive advantage. The results show that proper use of quality labor, storage facilities, time of selling, and availability of animals are key capabilities.

scholarly journals Blastocyst formation, embryo transfer and breed comparison in the first reported large scale cloning of camels

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
P. O. Olsson ◽  
A. H. Tinson ◽  
N. Al Shamsi ◽  
K. S. Kuhad ◽  
R. Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Embryo Transfer ◽  
Nuclear Transfer ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Donor Cell ◽  
Blastocyst Formation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Embryo Formation ◽  
Large Expansion ◽  
Breed Differences ◽  
Breed Comparison

AbstractCloning, through somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT), has the potential for a large expansion of genetically favorable traits in a population in a relatively short term. In the present study we aimed to produce multiple cloned camels from racing, show and dairy exemplars. We compared several parameters including oocyte source, donor cell and breed differences, transfer methods, embryo formation and pregnancy rates and maintenance following SCNT. We successfully achieved 47 pregnancies, 28 births and 19 cloned offspring who are at present healthy and have developed normally. Here we report cloned camels from surgical embryo transfer and correlate blastocyst formation rates with the ability to achieve pregnancies. We found no difference in the parameters affecting production of clones by camel breed, and show clear differences on oocyte source in cloning outcomes. Taken together we demonstrate that large scale cloning of camels is possible and that further improvements can be achieved.

How to increase customer repeated bookings in the short-term room rental market? A large-scale granular data investigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 143 ◽  
pp. 113495
Author(s):  
Jiang Wu ◽  
Jingxuan Cai ◽  
Xin (Robert) Luo ◽  
Jose Benitez
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rental Market ◽  
Data Investigation

scholarly journals The New SWOT for a Sustainable World

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Leandro Pereira ◽  
Miguel Pinto ◽  
Renato Lopes da Costa ◽  
Álvaro Dias ◽  
Rui Gonçalves
Keyword(s):  
Open Innovation ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Core ◽  
Essential Tool ◽  
Management Positions ◽  
Forward Looking

In today’s complex and changing business environment the concern with sustainability has gained more notoriety. However, companies still do not have a sustainable perspective, but a short-term one, where their values are constantly forgotten and this concept is no longer welcomed. This research demonstrates the need for companies to adapt and to start acting in this direction. Following a set of interviews conducted with professionals with management positions of high responsibility, findings reveal that although sustainability is on the management mind, strategies and tools need to be adapted to be at the core of the organization’s strategic formulation. To support this process, a new SWOT analysis to fit a forward-looking sustainable world is proposed. Furthermore, due to the aggregative nature of the model, it represents an essential tool for an open innovation. “SWOT i” integrates the concern with sustainability as one of its pillars, placing the values and impacts that each decision can have at the center of the strategic formulation, allowing their performance to leverage.

scholarly journals The Role of Risk Preferences in Responses to Messaging About COVID-19 Vaccine Take-Up

2021 ◽  
pp. 194855062199962
Author(s):  
Jennifer S. Trueblood ◽  
Abigail B. Sussman ◽  
Daniel O’Leary
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Flu Vaccine ◽  
Nationally Representative

Development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine is widely considered as one of the best paths to ending the current health crisis. While the ability to distribute a vaccine in the short-term remains uncertain, the availability of a vaccine alone will not be sufficient to stop disease spread. Instead, policy makers will need to overcome the additional hurdle of rapid widespread adoption. In a large-scale nationally representative survey ( N = 34,200), the current work identifies monetary risk preferences as a correlate of take-up of an anticipated COVID-19 vaccine. A complementary experiment ( N = 1,003) leverages this insight to create effective messaging encouraging vaccine take-up. Individual differences in risk preferences moderate responses to messaging that provides benchmarks for vaccine efficacy (by comparing it to the flu vaccine), while messaging that describes pro-social benefits of vaccination (specifically herd immunity) speeds vaccine take-up irrespective of risk preferences. Findings suggest that policy makers should consider risk preferences when targeting vaccine-related communications.

Overburdened Gauls: the case of Florus and Sacrovir’s revolt of 21 CE

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Kreiner
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Scale Resistance ◽  
Military Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In 21 CE, a series of localized movements broke out in Gallia Comata due to heavy debts among provincials according to Tacitus. Modern scholars have long argued that the indebtedness occurred because of rising interest rates, resulting from dwindling currency in circulation after decades of free-spending following Augustus’ victory at Actium, and that Gallic communities were subjected to an additional tribute to support the wars of Germanicus (14–16 CE), which continued unabated after the wars and pushed Gauls beyond their means. These claims are misguided, however, in that there is no certain evidence of a special tax to support Germanicus’ wars and that the argument for a dwindling circulation of currency in Gaul falters under closer inspection. Rather, the pressing statal and military needs imposed on communities in Gallia Comata after 9 CE on top of routine exactions could significantly increase burden levels levied on provincial populations, thus contributing to rising debts. Through examining how Roman logistics and conscription operated in this period, it is possible to trace how populations were impacted by such demands and which communities were most heavily affected by them, too. Individually, the impact of each factor is unlikely to have been burdensome enough to have caused large-scale resistance, it is only the cumulative effect that these explanations had on top of routine Roman extraction schemes that could create the conditions for this revolt. This paper argues that in extraordinary circumstances, such as the period after the Varian Disaster for Gallia Comata, the costs of supporting military campaigns places real short-term strains on local economies, which creates the conditions for revolt. The benefit of this approach is that it may explain other episodes of anti-fiscal resistance that broke out during or within a decade of wars in neighboring regions.

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