REACHABILITY OF THE INDICATORS OF THE «DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL» SUBPROGRAMME OF THE STATE PROGRAM«SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION» TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
The aim of the study is to assess the reachability of some indicators of the subprogram І«Development of national intellectual capital» of the State program «Scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation» taking into account mathematical modeling of demographic processes. The object of the study is the educational structure of the Russian population in accordance with the International Standard Classification of Education as amended in 2011. The work uses the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and regulatory documents of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education. A balance mathematical model in the form of differential equations describing changes in educational levels over time and in different age groups is proposed as a tool for studying the educational structure of the population of Russia. Numerical experiments were conducted that made it possible to forecast changes in the graduations of bachelors, masters, specialists and candidates of sciences until 2031. Based on this forecast, conclusions were drawn about the attainability of indicators of the above state program. This work was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia as part of the implementation of the State task of the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution Directorate of Scientific and Technological Programs No. 075-01395-20-00.