Causal Relationship among various Development Indices: A Panel Study

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Distributed Lag Models ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The concept of development has been regarded as a broader phenomenon encompassing various interrelated factors leading to improvement in the overall human wellbeing. So, it is important to understand the interlinkages between various dimensions of development. The present study was an attempt to analyze the causal relationship between the four aspects of development measured by the indices, namely the Economic Development Index (EDI), Social Development Index (SDI), Environment Development Index (ENDI), and Institutional Development Index (IDI) for a panel of 102 counties from 1996 to 2015. The long?run relationship between these indices through the panel ARDL model were also examined. The results indicated that there existed a bi-directional causal relationship between EDI and SDI, IDI and SDI, ENDI and SDI, and between IDI and ENDI. The one-way causality runs from IDI to EDI and ENDI to EDI. Further, given the nature of the variables considered here, panel autoregressive distributed lag models were used to examine the long?run relationship between the indices of development. The results showed that the impact of development indices with one another was statistically significant in the long run.

scholarly journals Bank Characteristics Effect on Capital Structure: Evidence from PMG and CS-ARDL

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 310
Author(s):  
Ahmet Erülgen ◽  
Husam Rjoub ◽  
Ahmet Adalıer
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Hierarchy Theory ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main aim of this paper was to investigate the impact of bank characteristics on capital structure empirically. The study employed a panel data analysis, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) estimators were utilized, for the period spans between the years 2008 and 2018. Both the borrowing (leverage) ratio and equity ratio used in the analysis cover short-term deposits and long-term deposits as a fundamental determinant variable on the capital structure. The main findings confirm that the deposit ratio has a positive relationship with the size of the bank. In other words, big banks use more foreign sources than small banks to use the tax shield advantage. At the same time, a percentage increase in bank size and liquidity ratio enhance the bank deposit rate by 0.0068% and 0.479%, respectively, in the long-run, while a percentage change in interest income coverage will reduce the bank deposit rate by 0.004% in the long-run. Meanwhile, the significant causal relationship of growth rate with the bank deposit rate could not be established. In addition, the short-run coefficients of the variables reveal that size, interest coverage, and liquidity have a positive and significant causal relationship with bank deposit rate in the short-run. The findings of the study are in line with the results of capital structure theories, especially the hierarchy theory and balancing theory.

scholarly journals Determinants of VMT in Urban Areas:A Panel Study of 87 U.S. Urban Areas 1982-2009

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Starr McMullen ◽  
Nathan Eckstein
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Geographic Region ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses econometric techniques to examine the determinants of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in a panel study using data from a cross section of 87 U.S. urban areas over the period 1982-2009. We use standard OLS regression as well as two-stage least squares techniques to examine the impact of factors such as urban density, lane-miles, per capita income, real fuel cost, transit mileage, and various industry mix variables on per capita VMT. We use a distributed lag model to estimate long-run elasticities and find that the long-run price elasticity of demand for per capita VMT is approximately five times larger than in the short run. Preliminary empirical results show the per capita demand for VMT in urban areas is positively and significantly impacted by lane miles, personal income, and the percent of employment in the construction and public sectors. Fuel price and transit use and the percent of employment in manufacturing, retail, and wholesale sectors are all found to be statistically significant and negatively related to VMT per capita. After correcting for endogeneity, urban population density exerts a negative, but not always statistically significant, impact on per capita VMT. Finally, per capita VMT is found to differ significantly by geographic region, being higher the more western and the larger the population size of an urban area.

scholarly journals Impact of Investment in Tourism Infrastructure Development on Attracting International Visitors: A Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach Using Vietnam’s Data

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Quang Hai Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
International Visitors ◽  
The Impact

Investment in tourism infrastructure development to make destinations and services increasingly attractive is considered a key measure in developing a country’s tourist destinations. This paper investigates the impact of investment in tourism infrastructure components on international visitor attraction using data from Vietnam for the period 1995–2019. The results of analyzing panel data by the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach show that, in the long-run, investing in the three components of tourism infrastructure, namely transport and communications infrastructure, the hotel and restaurant industry, and recreation facilities, has a strong and positive impact on international visitor attraction. In addition, different short-run impacts of the three tourism infrastructure components on the whole market and each major international visitor market are also found.

scholarly journals The Impact of International Migration, Immigration and Human Development Index on Economic Growth (A Case Study of Afghanistan)

2019 ◽  
pp. 103-122
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Development ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Today, Migration is one of the most common phenomena in Afghanistan. Undoubtedly, migration is not free of economic effects. Labor is one of the inputs of production and human capital is the main reason for economic growth and development of a country. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of international migration, migration and human development index on economic growth in Afghanistan. For this purpose, annual data of Afghanistan during the time period of (2003-2017) were investigated by using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results show that in the short and long term, the human development index has a positive and significant effect on economic growth and the increase of the country's immigrants has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Also, the increase in the number of out-migration has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, although no significant relationship was found in the long run.

Using distributed lag models to predict regional budget revenues

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1154-1172
Author(s):  
Yu.V. Granitsa
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Key Indicator ◽  
Distributed Lag Models ◽  
Regional Budget ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Financial Result

Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models. Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors. Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis. Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term. Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

The impact of the regional capital on center-periphery interactions – the case of Lviv and its surrounding region

2021 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-43
Author(s):  
Iryna Leshchukh ◽  
Olha Mulska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Regional Center ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The One ◽  
Index Value ◽  
Regional Capital ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Strong Inverse Relationship

o analyse the impact of Lviv on centre-periphery interactions the authors calculated the Socio-Economic Development Index for different districts of the region and considered the distance of each district from the regional capital. The Socio-Economic Development Index (Іr) of each district was calculated as the arithmetic mean of indices of its economic (Іе) and social (Іs) development. A strong inverse relationship was found between districts’ indices and their distances from the regional capital (R = –0.69). The indices were used to classify districts into three categories: central, semi-peripheral, and peripheral. The central category includes districts located within a 50-km radius of Lviv and their indices range from 0.5 to 0.7. Semi-peripheral districts are located within the radius of 50-75 km and their Іr values range from 0.3 to 0.5. Peripheral districts are located at the furthest distance from the regional centre, and their Іr values are below 0.3. Because the correlation between the distance from the regional center and index value for some districts was not consistent with the general pattern, two subtypes of districts were also added – core and ancillary. The authors demonstrate that the impact of the regional capital on the socio-economic development of administrative districts decreases with their increasing distance from the regional center. The level of socio-economic development in districts depends, on the one hand, on the strength of impulses generated by the regional center, and on the other hand, is determined by the local economic capacity and ability to absorb the impacts of the regional center and other local growth poles.

scholarly journals The Impact of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to scrutinize the impact of financial development, energy consumption, industrialization, and trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1984–2018. To do so, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run nexus among the variables. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) were used for a more robust examination of the empirical findings. The result of cointegration confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Findings from the ARDL indicate that industrialization, energy consumption, and financial development (measured by domestic credit) positively influence economic growth in the long run. However, financial development (measured by money supply) and trade openness demonstrate a negative effect on economic growth. The positive nexus among industrialization, financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth explains that these variables were stimulating growth in Indonesia. The error correction term indicates a 68% annual adjustment from any deviation in the previous period’s long-run equilibrium economic growth. These findings provide a strong testimony that industrialization and financial development are key to sustained long-run economic growth in Indonesia.

scholarly journals The impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Abubakar Aminu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigated the impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria utilizing the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of cointegration covering the period of 25 years from 1995 to 2019. The findings reveal that education tax and investment in human capital have positive and significant effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy over the sampled period. The paper recommends that in order to boost the economy, Nigeria would need to, among other policy frameworks, provide a suitable environment for ensuring macro-economic stability through effective utilization of income from education tax that will encourage increased investment in human capital in the public sector. In addition to income from education tax, for effective and speedy economic growth and development in Nigeria, the government, beneficiaries (students/parents), employers of labor and other stakeholders in the society should share the responsibility for financing primary, secondary and tertiary education, so as to provide a solid foundation for human capital development. However, as revealed in this paper, the contribution of education tax and investment in human capital is most likely to be realized over a long-run period than in the short term. Keywords: Education Tax; Investment; Human capital; Economic growth

scholarly journals Impact of Domestic Public Debt on Economic Growth - An Empirical Study in the Indian Context

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 101-116
Author(s):  
Srinivasa Rao Gangadharan ◽  
Lakshmi Padmakumari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Ordinary Least Square Regression ◽  
The Impact

This study is an empirical investigation to assess the impact of domestic debt on India’s Economic growth during the period 1980 – 2014. We use data on Domestic Debt, Net Fiscal Deficit, Exports, Savings, Real Gross Domestic Product, Population and Terms of Trade. This study adopts the ARDL Co-Integration and Granger Causality techniques to investigate the relation between the key variables. The study also employs various post estimation tests to validate the fitness and stability of the models based on Gauss Markov assumptions, after employing the ordinary least square regression on various models. We find that debt negatively impacts economic growth while savings has a positive impact. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique used to test the robustness suggests existence of co-integration among the variables. However, none of the long run co-efficient is significant. The granger causality and co-integration test results support the traditional view that debt negatively impacts economic growth.

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