The practical application of design risk assessment models

2003 ◽  
Vol 217 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Crossland ◽  
J Sims Williams ◽  
C McMahon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Functional Requirements ◽  
Product Model ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Basic Product ◽  
First Case ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Technical Risk

This paper describes three case studies of the application of quantitative design risk assessment methods in practice. The studies arose out of a survey of risk practice in design which showed that leading edge companies use quantitative methods of risk assessment in assessing both project risk, which may be defined as the risk to cost and time-scale, and technical risk, which may be defined as the risk that the designed artefact will not meet its functional requirements. The first case study concerns a coastal defence programme and is primarily concerned with technical risk. The second study is concerned with the installation of a replacement bridge and is primarily concerned with project risk. The final study describes an aerospace engine design programme that involved both technical and project risks The paper first presents a generic overview of the risk management process and then describes, for each of the three study domains, how risk is identified, how risk assessment is carried out, including prioritization and uncertainty modelling, what risk treatment steps are undertaken and how risks are monitored. Outcomes in the three studies are shown to be a whole-life cost-benefit uncertainty model for assessing design alternatives, a method for incorporating uncertainty into task criticality as well as task duration in the activity network for a design project and a method for aggregating uncertainty in design attributes over the basic product model.

Project Risk Management Process for Professionals

2018 ◽  
pp. 277-299
Author(s):  
Tamas Toth ◽  
Zoltan Sebestyen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Minimum Requirements ◽  
Integrated Project ◽  
Assessment Procedures ◽  
Project Risk Analysis ◽  
Project Risk Assessment

This chapter will provide an instantly applicable integrated project risk analysis method, which tracks the probabilities of the occurrences of harmful events perceived by the owners from the conceptual phase to the end of the project. The chapter follows a threefold structure. First, the paper provides a revised integrated project risk assessment framework that enhances conventional risk category-based methods. Second, the minimum requirements of the owners are clarified to attain the main goal of project risk assessment and to identify the harmful events jeopardizing this goal. Third, the widely known risk assessment procedures are revised, and a methodology for taking and selecting proper risks is provided. Finally, a new valuation approach to the monitoring phase is introduced, which is able to capture the current market value of the project based on the risk management and controlling system's data.

Project Risk Management Process for Professionals

2018 ◽  
pp. 725-747
Author(s):  
Tamas Toth ◽  
Zoltan Sebestyen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Minimum Requirements ◽  
Integrated Project ◽  
Assessment Procedures ◽  
Project Risk Analysis ◽  
Project Risk Assessment

This chapter will provide an instantly applicable integrated project risk analysis method, which tracks the probabilities of the occurrences of harmful events perceived by the owners from the conceptual phase to the end of the project. The chapter follows a threefold structure. First, the paper provides a revised integrated project risk assessment framework that enhances conventional risk category-based methods. Second, the minimum requirements of the owners are clarified to attain the main goal of project risk assessment and to identify the harmful events jeopardizing this goal. Third, the widely known risk assessment procedures are revised, and a methodology for taking and selecting proper risks is provided. Finally, a new valuation approach to the monitoring phase is introduced, which is able to capture the current market value of the project based on the risk management and controlling system's data.

Project Risk Management Process for Professionals

2016 ◽  
pp. 128-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamas Toth ◽  
Zoltan Sebestyen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Minimum Requirements ◽  
Integrated Project ◽  
Assessment Procedures ◽  
Project Risk Analysis ◽  
Project Risk Assessment

This chapter will provide an instantly applicable integrated project risk analysis method, which tracks the probabilities of the occurrences of harmful events perceived by the owners from the conceptual phase to the end of the project. The chapter follows a threefold structure. First, the paper provides a revised integrated project risk assessment framework that enhances conventional risk category-based methods. Second, the minimum requirements of the owners are clarified to attain the main goal of project risk assessment and to identify the harmful events jeopardizing this goal. Third, the widely known risk assessment procedures are revised, and a methodology for taking and selecting proper risks is provided. Finally, a new valuation approach to the monitoring phase is introduced, which is able to capture the current market value of the project based on the risk management and controlling system's data.

scholarly journals SELECTION AND APPLICATION OF APPROPRIATE ANALYTICAL METHODS NEEDED TO ASSESS THE RISKS REDUCING THE SECURITY OF THE PROTECTED SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Josef Reitšpís ◽  
Martin Mašľan ◽  
Igor Britchenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Analytical Methods ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Input Information ◽  
Risk Management Process

Risk assessment is one of the prerequisites for understanding its causes and possible consequences. We base our risk assessment on the principles described in the European standard EN 31000 - Risk Management Process. This standard comprehensively describes the continuous activities that are necessary in managing risks and minimizing their possible adverse effects on the operation of the system under investigation. In this activity, it is necessary to first identify the existing risks, then analyze and evaluate the identified risks. In the analysis of existing risks, it is possible to use both qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, or combine them. We use qualitative methods in cases where we do not have a sufficient amount of input information, these are more subjective. Quantitative methods are more accurate, but also more demanding on input information and time. The choice of a suitable analytical method is a basic prerequisite for knowledge of risks and their evaluation. The values of individual risks obtained in this way are the basis for determining the measures that are necessary to minimize them, i.e., to adjust them to an acceptable level. The draft measures are always based on the value of the individual components used to calculate the risk number, as well as on the value of the asset , which needs to be protected. Appropriately chosen analytical methods are one of the basic prerequisites for the consistent application of the principles of risk management, as a continuous process aimed at increasing the overall security of the system under study. In the article, the author describes the procedures used in risk assessment, as well as specific analytical methods that can be used in working with risks. The aim of identifying risk factors is to create a list of events that could cause undesirable disruption to ongoing processes. At this stage, we define all the risks that will be subsequently analyzed and evaluated. When identifying, we can use methods such as, e.g. SWOT, PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) or CA (Checklist Analysis). Methods suitable for determining the causes and creating scenarios for the course of a risk event are ETA (Event Tree Analysis) or FTA (Fault Tree Analysis). The basic analysis of the system can be performed using the FMEA method (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), which provides a numerical risk assessment. By comparison with the numerical value of the risk that we are willing to accept, we obtain 2 groups of risks. Acceptable, which will be given regular attention and unacceptable, which we will focus on in risk management and we will try to minimize its negative affect on the functioning of the system under study.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Moored and Passing Ships

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 6825
Author(s):  
Peter Vidmar ◽  
Marko Perkovič ◽  
Lucjan Gucma ◽  
Kinga Łazuga
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Cruise Ships ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Port Area ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
The Impact

Accidents in port areas are generally relatively minor given the lower prevailing speeds, but dangerous cargo terminals located in the vicinity of populated areas present some risk of accidents with catastrophic consequences. The maritime risk assessment frameworks have been developed in many ports, but few include studies incorporating collisions between sailing and moored ships. This paper presents the risk assessment framework for such accidents. Moreover, it presents the important role of harbour regulations in the navigation risk management process within the port area. Today’s port regulations are created mostly based on the good practice of pilots and other experts, whereas quantitative methods are used less frequently. The intention of the presented case study was to demonstrate how quantitative risk assessment may be used in port policy development, which is why the method created is general and may be used in any terminal with dangerous cargo. The multi-stage method consists of several steps that make up a complex methodology, consisting of expert study, real-time simulation—a simulation of a collision in port is presented—and analytical-empirical calculations for consequence assessment. The case studies of the developed method are presented based on two real accidents, one in the Police port along the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway, and the second in the Port of Koper in Slovenia. The results of this study present the parameters of the ship’s safe approach to the terminal area, such as velocity and approaching angle. These parameters are used to calculate the impact forces in the case of a collision between a moored and passing ship and its consequences on ship integrity as well as on mooring arrangement. Based on probability and consequences, the risk is evaluated and discussed in the sense of port safety. The presented method could be used as the framework for risk assessment of collisions in a port area, particularly when dealing with dangerous cargo or sensitive vessels such as cruise ships.

scholarly journals CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES TO CREATING A RISK-BASED BUDGET CONTROL SYSTEM

2018 ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Iryna NEDBALIUK
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Control System ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Budget Control ◽  
Budgetary Control ◽  
Oriented System

Introduction. The current state of the development of the budgetary system is characterized by a number of controversial and uncoordinated moments that increase the possibility of the emergence of budgetary risks and require minimization of possible budget losses associated with the existence of budgetary risks through the formation of a risk-based budget control system. Purpose. Formulation of conceptual approaches to the creation of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control. Results. The article defines the notion of “budget risk” and analyzes the risk factors of the budget system depending on the stage of the budget process. The components of the risk management process are determined, including identification, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control. A risk-based budget control system has been established, it should focus on minimizing the negative consequences of risk in accordance with the above risk classification; identification of budgetary risks at the planning stage, formation and approval, execution and analysis of the latter's results; risk assessment by qualitative and quantitative methods. Conclusions. On the basis of the definition of the concept of “fiduciary risk” and its main characteristics, it is possible to distinguish conceptual approaches to the creation of a riskoriented system of budget control, which include: – firstly, the analysis of the risk factors of the budgetary system depending on the stage of the budget process; – secondly, compliance with the risk management process, including identification, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control; – thirdly, the formation of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control, which should be guided by the minimization of the negative consequences of the risk in accordance with the above classification of risk; identification of budget risks at the planning, formation and approval stage, implementation and analysis of the results of the latter; Assessing the level of risk by qualitative and quantitative methods, including monitoring and risk assessment at national and local level. Thus, the introduction of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control is not aimed at eliminating the consequences of negative external and internal influences, but to prevent their occurrence will reduce the negative consequences of violations in the system of budgetary control.

RISK ASSESSMENT ON DESIGN AND BUILD PROJECTS – A COMPARISON OF CONTRACTORS, CONSULTANTS AND OWNERS PERCEPTIONS

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabihah Saaidin ◽  
Intan Rohani Endut ◽  
Siti Akmar Abu Samah ◽  
Ahmad Ruslan Mohd Rizduan ◽  
Nur Nabihah Abd Razak
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Survey Questionnaire ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Risk Management Process

Design and Build (DB) has been classified as the most risky project due to the complexities and uniqueness of the project itself. Appropriate identification, analyzing, controlling and monitoring for the project risk are required to minimize the risk in DB projects. It is essential that all parties play an important role in minimizing risk inherent in design and build projects. Therefore, this study has been carried out to conduct risk assessment on design and build projects by the comparison of contractors, consultants and owners perceptions. To achieve the objective, the survey questionnaire was distributed among contractor, consultant and owner, that were directly involved in design and build projects. A total of 128 useable questionnaires were received and analyzed using mean ranking, Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney Test. The result of these analyses shows that the contractors, consultants and owners have the same insight in risk factors presented namely: “client financial capability” and “inadequate cash flow by contractor”. There are no significant differences in between all parties except “bureaucracy in government agencies” and “inflation”. This study helps to increase understanding of contractors and owners on the importance of implementing risk management process at early stage of the projects.

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Implementasi Probability Impact Matriks (PIM) Untuk Mengidentifikasi Kemungkinan dan Dampak Risiko Proyek

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-47
Author(s):  
Sufa'atin Sufa'atin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Construction ◽  
Index Terms ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
The Impact

One of the obstacles in project construction is that the project is experiencing delays. The delay is influenced by several factors including the absence of risk recording, the unavoidability of the opportunities and the impact of risks that arise in the project and its handling, and the neglected risks that may disrupt the project. Project risk is the cumulative effect of an uncertain event opportunity, which affects the project objectives. Several methods can be used to handle the occurrence of project risk, one of the methods used to perform a risk assessment is the Probability Impact Matrix (PIM). PIM is a method that can be used to analyze risk qualitatively based on probability and its impact. By using the PIM method, some of the opportunities and impacts of risks that may arise in the project can be identified. In addition, the PIM method can minimize the risks that arise in the project and quickly resolve the risks. Index Terms— Project, Risk, PIM, Possibility, Impact

scholarly journals A Framework for Project Risk Assessment in Dynamic Networks: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Megaproject Construction

IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Amir Farmahini Farahani ◽  
Kaveh Khalili-Damghani ◽  
Hosein Didehkhani ◽  
Amir Homayoun Sarfaraz ◽  
Mehdi Hajirezaie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Dynamic Networks ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Risk Assessment
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