scholarly journals Prediksi Pajak Mineral Non Logam dan Batuan dengan Metode Monte Carlo

2019 ◽  
pp. 32-37
Author(s):  
Julius Santony
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Work Plan ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
District Government

Regional government in Indonesia annually sets a target for tax revenues of non-metallic minerals and rocks. Setting targets is very important as a guideline in preparing the current year's budget work plan. So far, the target of non-metal mineral and rock tax revenues has been prepared based on a joint agreement between the regional government and the regional legislature. The prediction of non-metal mineral and rock tax revenues using Monte Carlo simulation can be a solution to predict the next few years. This prediction uses data between 2009 - 2018 taken from the tax and retribution management body one of the districts in Indonesia. Testing the results of predictions is done by comparing the results of predictions with data from 2016 - 2018. The test results show that the average accuracy rate reaches 82.05%. So this study greatly helped the district government in setting the target for the acceptance of non-metal minerals and rock taxes.

scholarly journals Prediksi Pajak Mineral Non Logam dan Batuan dengan Metode Monte Carlo

2019 ◽  
pp. 32-37
Author(s):  
Julius Santony
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Work Plan ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
District Government

Regional government in Indonesia annually sets a target for tax revenues of non-metallic minerals and rocks. Setting targets is very important as a guideline in preparing the current year's budget work plan. So far, the target of non-metal mineral and rock tax revenues has been prepared based on a joint agreement between the regional government and the regional legislature. The prediction of non-metal mineral and rock tax revenues using Monte Carlo simulation can be a solution to predict the next few years. This prediction uses data between 2009 - 2018 taken from the tax and retribution management body one of the districts in Indonesia. Testing the results of predictions is done by comparing the results of predictions with data from 2016 - 2018. The test results show that the average accuracy rate reaches 82.05%. So this study greatly helped the district government in setting the target for the acceptance of non-metal minerals and rock taxes.

scholarly journals Optimalisasi Prediksi Biaya Komisi Penjualan Mobil Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

KOMTEKINFO ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-151
Author(s):  
Zupri Henra Hartomi ◽  
Yuhandri ◽  
Julius Santony
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Marketing Performance ◽  
Potential Market ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Car Sales ◽  
The Cost

Sales are the main source of income for every company. Every company in marketing a product, should control the potential market for profit. Predicting the number of sales is important in analyzing sales progress. This study aims to assist companies in predicting car sales and car commission cost budgets based on sales data from the previous year.The data used in the study are car sales data for 2017 and 2018 in the Arengka Automall Pekanbaru Showroom (SAA Pekanbaru).Data processing in research uses the Monte Carlo method.The results of tests that have been carried out state that car sales by Marketing within 1 year resulted in an average accuracy rate of 94% and sales commission fee of Rp 411.000.000.From these results in accordance with calculations performed manually so that with a large accuracy value, the application of the simulation using this Monte Carlo Method feasible to be applied by companies in future decision making to plan the estimated budget for the cost of a car sales commission and as a means to assess Marketing performance at SAA Pekanbaru.

Proposition of a New Conformity Criterion for the Assessment of the Concrete Compressive Strength

2017 ◽  
Vol 259 ◽  
pp. 106-110
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Szczygielska ◽  
Viktar V. Tur
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Compressive Strength ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Probability Density Function ◽  
Concrete Strength ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Concrete Compressive Strength ◽  
Strength Assessment ◽  
Probability Density Function Pdf

A new conformity criterion for concrete strength assessment that could be used at the initial production stage, is proposed. As an innovative conformity criterion was evaluated based on Order Statistics Theory, it is independent from the type probability density function (PDF) in population, estimation of the standard deviation, shape of the specimen and the level of autocorrelation of the test results. Proposed criterion was evaluated and positively verified both AOQL-concept using Monte Carlo simulation and the test results obtained under real production.

scholarly journals Simulasi Penjadwalan Proyek Pembangunan Jembatan Gantung dengan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
pp. 36-42
Author(s):  
Julius Santony
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Suspension Bridge ◽  
Work Schedule ◽  
Bridge Construction ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Construction Activity

The scheduling of a suspension bridge construction project is very influential in determining the success of construction which has risks and uncertainties in the construction of a suspension bridge. So we need a suspension bridge project scheduling to predict the work schedule for each suspension bridge construction activity. To overcome all the risks and uncertainties in the construction of a suspension bridge, a Monte Carlo method simulation is needed to process 10 activities in a suspension bridge construction project. The accuracy rate using Monte Carlo simulation is 93.99% for predictions for 2017, 2018 for 98.77% and 86.75% for 2019. So this Monte Carlo simulation can be used in predicting the scheduling of a suspension bridge construction project.

Rethinking Observed Power

Methodology ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuyan Sun ◽  
Wei Pan ◽  
Lihshing Leigh Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Power Analysis ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Study ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Journal Editors

Observed power analysis is recommended by many scholarly journal editors and reviewers, especially for studies with statistically nonsignificant test results. However, researchers may not fully realize that blind observance of this recommendation could lead to an unfruitful effort, despite the repeated warnings from methodologists. Through both a review of 14 published empirical studies and a Monte Carlo simulation study, the present study demonstrates that observed power is usually not as informative or helpful as we think because (a) observed power for a nonsignificant test is generally low and, therefore, does not provide additional information to the test; and (b) a low observed power does not always indicate that the test is underpowered. Implications and suggestions of statistical power analysis for quantitative researchers are discussed.

scholarly journals Reassessment of Remaining Strength of Subsea Corroded Pipeline Using Bayesian Updating

2015 ◽  
Vol 773-774 ◽  
pp. 221-225
Author(s):  
Zafarullah Nizamani ◽  
Zahiraniza Mustaffa
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Strength Evaluation ◽  
Subsea Pipeline ◽  
Burst Test ◽  
Design Life

System strength evaluation of subsea pipeline, which has already completed its design life, is an important issue to deal with especially when hydrocarbon is the material to be transported. The remaining strength of pipeline in terms of probability of failure can be determined using assessment of maximum operating pressure and its capacity by using burst test results. Monte Carlo simulation is used to find probability of failure and then with burst test results the existing probability of failure can be updated using Bayesian updating technique.

scholarly journals Monte Carlo Simulation in Predicting the Level of Culinary Sales Revenue (Case Study at Radja Minas Padang)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ihksan ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
High Level ◽  
The City

Radja Minas is one of the culinary places located in the city of Padang with more than 30 employees. With the development of Radja Minas, of course, a good management strategy is needed. One way to do a revenue simulation, sales revenue simulation is a process of drawing or predicting sales. This study aims to predict the average sales revenue, so that it becomes a recommendation for use in making management strategies. The data processed in this research is sales data from 2017 to 2019 which comes from Radja Minas. This data will be processed using the monte Carlo method. The results of the tests that have been done have an accuracy rate of 92.66%. The high level of accuracy from the results of predictive data processing, this research is very precise and suitable for optimizing sales revenue. So that this research becomes a recommendation to be used in making a management strategy at Radja Minas in the future.

scholarly journals Community Participation in Providing Information on Circumstances, Needs and Attitudes in Preparation District Government Annual Work Plan (DGAWP) Sekadau Regency West Kalimantan Province in 2019

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martoyo Martoyo ◽  
Bima Sujendra
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Community Participation ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Work Plan ◽  
Government Work ◽  
District Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Many

The local government work plan is a translation of the medium-term regional development plan for a period of 1 (one) year. In the process, however, the regional government of the Sekadau Regency was able to accept only a small part of the community's proposals when drafting. The purpose of this study was to find out and analyze how community participation in the preparation of the Sekadau Regional Government Work Plan in West Kalimantan Province in 2019. The research method used in this study was a qualitative method. The results of the participation of the Sekadau Regency community in providing information on conditions, needs and attitudes in the preparation of the Sekadau regency local government work plan in 2019 have not received a good response from the government, as shown by the many community proposals, but the The community still does not know whether the proposal has been accepted or not accepted by the government. The conclusion of this study is the participation of the Sekadau Regency community in the preparation of the Sekadau Regency local government work plan in 2019, which has not yet received a good response.

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