scholarly journals Electric consumption predictions objects of socio-economic systems based on the ranked values

2020 ◽  
pp. 107-111
Author(s):  
В.И. Гнатюк ◽  
О.Р. Кивчун ◽  
Д.Г. Морозов
Keyword(s):  
Power Consumption ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Experimental Verification ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
Predicted Values

Авторами предлагается алгоритм прогнозирования электропотребления объектов социально-экономических систем на основе значений ранговых норм. В его основу положено понятие ранговой нормы, представляющей собой неотрицательный функционал, заданный в векторном ранговом пространстве и обобщающий понятие длины вектора или абсолютного значения параметра. Основными этапами алгоритма являются: импорт данных по электропотреблению, расчёт ранговых норм, прогнозирование значений ранговых норм и исходных значений электропотребления, восстановление прогнозных значений ранговых норм, сравнение результатов прогнозирования и выбор наилучшего прогноза. Эксперементальная проверка алгоритма была реализована на данных по электропотреблению регионов Российской Федерации. Анализ результатов прогнозов позволил определить, что средние относительные и абсолютные ошибки метода прогнозирования на основе значений ранговых норм, меньше. Данный факт позволяет сделать вывод о том, что для среднесрочного прогнозирования целесообразнее использовать метод на основе значений ранговых норм. The authors propose an algorithm for predicting the power consumption of objects of socio-economic systems based on the values of rank norms. It is based on the concept of a rank norm, which is a non-negative functional specified in a vector rank space and generalizing the concept of the length of a vector or the absolute value of a parameter. The main stages of the algorithm are: importing data on power consumption, calculating rank norms, predicting the values of rank norms and initial values of power consumption, restoring the predicted values of rank norms, comparing forecast results and choosing the best forecast. Experimental verification of the algorithm was carried out on data on power consumption of the regions of the Russian Federation. Analysis of the forecast results allowed us to determine that the average relative and absolute errors of the forecasting method based on the values of rank norms are less. This fact allows us to conclude that it is more expedient to use the method based on the values of rank norms for medium-term forecasting.

Improving the medium-term forecasting methodology: a model of big challenges

2019 ◽  
pp. 62-68
Author(s):  
I.A. Kirichenko ◽  
R.R. Gumerov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article analyzes some new requirements to the methodology of medium-term forecasting of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the framework of the «big challenges» model. The main «big challenges» of the global and Russian economy are identified, the main requirements for the medium-term forecasting of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the transition to the model of «big challenges» are considered.

scholarly journals Methods of Evaluation of Tolerance yo Physical Activity Based on Six-Minute Walking Test During Outpatient Rehabilitation of Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-10
Author(s):  
Tatyana V. Mikhailovskaya ◽  
Irina E. Mishina ◽  
Olga A. Nazarova ◽  
Yuri V. Dovgalyuk ◽  
Julia V. Chistyakova
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Ischemic Heart Disease ◽  
Cardiac Rehabilitation ◽  
Ischemic Heart ◽  
Outpatient Rehabilitation ◽  
Walking Test ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
Predicted Values

Background.Even though the six-minute walking test is a simple and widely available tool for the evaluation of the functional capacity of cardiac patients, its interpretation is associated with some difficulties and contradictions.Aims:To evaluate the dynamics of tolerance to physical activity during outpatient rehabilitation of patients with ischemic heart disease using predicted values of distance in the six-minute walking test.Materials and methods.97 patients (70 men and 27 women, average age 59.6 [50; 60] years) after acute coronary syndrome and after myocardial revascularization were included. The six-minute walking test was performed at the beginning of the 3-weeks stage of cardiac rehabilitation and before the patients discharge. The results of the test were reported as an absolute value, a change in absolute value, and the percentage of predicted values, estimated with the reference equation by Enright and colleagues.Results.The absolute value of distance in the six-minute walking test was increased significantly from 418 [385; 465] m to 485 [440; 525] m (p0.001). The number of patients with a distance less than 300 m was decreased significantly (12 patients, 12% vs 2 patients, 2%,p0.001). In most patients, the absolute increase in distance was 30 m and more (81 people, 84%). After comparing the perceived data with the calculated predicted values, it was revealed that the distance raised from 79 [71; 82]% to 92 [88; 96]% of the predicted values. And 56 patients (58%) had a distance equal to 90% or more from its predicted value.Conclusions.During the third stage of cardiac rehabilitation the significant increase of the absolute value of the six-minute walking test, the growth of the percentage of predicted values, and the decrease of patients with a distance less than 300 m were found. All these estimation methods may be used to demonstrate and prove favourable changes of tolerance to physical activity in patients with ischemic heart disease.

scholarly journals Poverty in the Russian Federation: possibilities and specifics of the use of the AROPE multi-criteria index in the poverty monitoring system of the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Marina A. Kartseva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Level ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Absolute Income ◽  
Poverty Status ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Absolute

The article presents a comparative analysis of the level and structure of poverty of the Russian population using two different concepts of poverty definition — the absolute income criterion currently used by Rosstat, and the AROPE indicator of poverty and social exclusion. The paper also attempts to assess how the change of the methodology for determining poverty can affect the existence of the poverty status of individuals. The study is carried out both at a national level and at a federal district level. The empirical basis of the paper is selective observation of income of the population and participation in social programmes, conducted by Rosstat in 2017. The results show that in transition from the absolute income criterion to the multi-criteria AROPE index, the poverty level of the population of the Russian Federation significantly increases. The highest growth of poverty is among people over working age. The age structure of poverty also changes significantly. With AROPE, the proportion of older persons among the poor increases and the proportion of children decreases. It is also shown in the article that the transition from the current official methodology of poverty definition to the definition in accordance with AROPE’s methodology can lead to loss of the poverty status by part of the population, which, in case of the official transition to using AROPE index as a criterion for receiving social support, can have a negative impact on their socio-economic situation. The obtained results vary significantly by federal districts of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Shifts in interregional proportions in population settlement over the territory of Russia in 2002-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-37
Author(s):  
Pavel Kirillov ◽  
Alla Makhrova
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Population Redistribution ◽  
Migratory Movement ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
The Russian Federation

Abstract The article deals with the trends of population size changes in the regions of the Russian Federation between 2002 and 2017 on the basis of data of all-Russian population censuses and current statistics. Components of population growth (natural and migratory movement of the population) are analyzed. In order to take into account the current situation of population size changes in the regions, which are largely of a “turning point” nature and partly inconsistent with the medium-term dynamics since the 2002 Census, the analysis is focused on the period from 2014 to 2017. The paper presents estimates of population size shifts at regional and macro-regional levels, identifies general and local growth centers and depopulation zones. Conclusions are drawn about general shifts in the proportions of population settlement over the territory of Russia and in certain macro-regions (federal districts). General conclusions about the trends of population redistribution across the territory of the country are given in the final part of the study.

Energy Analysis of Impact-Shear Interaction of Counter Flows of Ground Loose Material in Centrifugal Disintegrator

Mining Revue ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 30-39
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Nadutyi ◽  
Oleksandr Tytov ◽  
Dmytrii Kolosov ◽  
Vitalii Sukhariev ◽  
Taras Usatyi
Keyword(s):  
Power Consumption ◽  
Technological Process ◽  
Loose Material ◽  
Energy Analysis ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Shear Deformations ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
Distribution Of Power

Abstract The distribution of power consumption of centrifugal two-shaft disintegrator for impact and shear destruction of material as functions of its technological and structural parameters, as well as parameters of material being ground, has been substantiated. An analytical apparatus has been developed to determine the degree of influence of each factor. Factors affecting the absolute value of the consumed power of the disintegrator have also been established. The results of the work make it possible to optimize the technological process in order to reduce the yield of bream fragments of destruction, which is observed when the share of energy of shear deformations increases, in order to obtain cuboid fractions of disintegration products. They allow to create a methodology for determining the rational parameters of a centrifugal double-shaft disintegrator.

scholarly journals Directions of wage optimization in construction

2021 ◽  
Vol 296 ◽  
pp. 06006
Author(s):  
I.V. Yamshchikovа ◽  
T.G. Doroshenko ◽  
N.B. Mikheeva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Subsistence Level ◽  
Median Salary ◽  
Irkutsk Region ◽  
Calculation Methodology ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Government

The article analyses the method proposed by the Government of the Russian Federation for adjusting the principle of determining the minimum subsistence level, based on the median salary. The article shows the result of the analysis of changes in wages in construction when calculating, using the median salary in relation to the “absolute” principle of calculating the minimum subsistence level, the calculation of the size of the minimum subsistence level in Russia as a whole, and on the territory of the Irkutsk region is analysed. It is shown that the transition to the calculation of the median salary in the Irkutsk region will decrease the subsistence level in relation to the existing one. Based on our analysis, the conclusion is made that in order to calculate the minimum subsistence level for medial salary, it is necessary to revise the calculation methodology.

scholarly journals INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marat R. Safiullin ◽  
Azat R. Kadyrov ◽  
Gulnaz M. Galeeva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Sporting Events ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Infrastructure Investments

This article considers the problems of infrastructure financing, which is necessary for the successful development of regional economic systems. To identify the current problems in the development of investment attractiveness of the Russian regions, we selected the following factors: availability and level of provision of industrial, social, transport, and other infrastructure with facilities, government expenses on the creation and development of regional infrastructure. The study consists of several stages and is based on data published on the official websites of the World Bank, Gazprombank, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and the Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation. The study shows that the absolute leaders in terms of infrastructure investments are such countries as China, the United States, and India. In the total amount of infrastructure investments, transport infrastructure and telecommunications have an absolute advantage. In recent years, one of the development priorities of the Russian regions has been investing in physical culture and sports infrastructure facilities. This is due to major international sporting events and increasing the investment attractiveness of the regions. An important trend in the development of infrastructural support for the development of regional economic systems has been the conclusion of international investment transactions (IIT) and regional agreements. Most countries and regions, leading in the inflow of foreign direct investment, are the leaders in terms of infrastructure development at the same time.

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