Paradox Negative Effects of the mid-Pliocene Warming on the Climatic Suitability of Six Mediterranean Sandfly Species in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-156
Author(s):  
Attila J. Trájer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Mediterranean Species ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference

The Pliocene era could be the last time when sandfly (Diptera: Psychodidae) species were widespread in Europe. Within the Pliocene, the mid-Pliocene period is an important model period in the investigation of the future effects of anthropogenic climate change. In this study, the mid-Pliocene potential distribution of six Mediterranean sandfly species was modelled based on the M2 mid-Pliocene cold and mid-Pliocene warm paleoclimatic reconstructions. It was found that the cold period’s potential occurrence of sandfly species could be notably more extended than the distribution of the taxa in the warm period. The difference is less expressed in the case of the West Mediterranean species, but it is particularly visible in the circum-Mediterranean and East Mediterranean taxa. It can be concluded that not the changes in the mean annual temperature, but the increase of the precipitation patterns and the wetter climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period resulted in the observed differences. The results imply that the use of mid-Pliocene warming as a model of the present climatic changes can be handled with caution in the performing of biogeographic proxies for vector sandflies related to the anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals The Realization of Extreme Tornadic Storm Events under Future Anthropogenic Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (14) ◽  
pp. 5251-5265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Trapp ◽  
Kimberly A. Hoogewind
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Basic Question ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Atmospheric State ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract This research seeks to answer the basic question of how current-day extreme tornadic storm events might be realized under future anthropogenic climate change. The pseudo global warming (PGW) methodology was adapted for this purpose. Three contributions to the CMIP5 archive were used to obtain the mean 3D atmospheric state simulated during May 1990–99 and May 2090–99. The climate change differences (or Δs) in temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and winds were added to NWP analyses of three high-end tornadic storm events, and this modified atmospheric state was then used for initial and boundary conditions for real-data WRF Model simulations of the events at high resolution. Comparison of an ensemble of these simulations with control simulations (CTRL) facilitated assessment of PGW effects. In contrast to the robust development of supercellular convection in each CTRL, the combined effects of increased convective inhibition (CIN) and decreased parcel lifting under PGW led to a failure of convection initiation in many of the experiments. Those experiments that had sufficient matching between the CIN and lifting tended to generate stronger convective updrafts than CTRL, although not in proportion to the projected higher levels of convective available potential energy (CAPE) under PGW. In addition, the experiments with enhanced updrafts also tended to have enhanced vertical rotation. In fact, such supercellular convection was even found in simulations that were driven with PGW-reduced environmental wind shear. Notably, the PGW modifications did not induce a change in the convective morphology in any of the PGW experiments with significant convective storminess.

scholarly journals Consequences of barriers and changing seasonality on population dynamics and harvest of migratory ungulates

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-605
Author(s):  
Bram Van Moorter ◽  
Steinar Engen ◽  
John M. Fryxell ◽  
Manuela Panzacchi ◽  
Erlend B. Nilsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Behavioral Avoidance ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Global Threat

AbstractMany animal populations providing ecosystem services, including harvest, live in seasonal environments and migrate between seasonally distinct ranges. Unfortunately, two major sources of human-induced global change threaten these populations: climate change and anthropogenic barriers. Anthropogenic infrastructure developments present a global threat to animal migrations through increased migration mortality or behavioral avoidance. Climate change alters the seasonal and spatial dynamics of resources and therefore the effects of migration on population performance. We formulated a population model with ideal-free migration to investigate changes in population size and harvest yield due to barriers and seasonal dynamics. The model predicted an increasing proportion of migrants when the difference between areas in seasonality or carrying capacity increased. Both migration cost and behavioral avoidance of barriers substantially reduced population size and harvest yields. Not surprisingly, the negative effects of barriers were largest when the population benefited most from migration. Despite the overall decline in harvest yield from a migratory population due to barriers, barriers could result in locally increased yield from the resident population following reduced competition from migrants. Our approach and results enhance the understanding of how global warming and infrastructure development worldwide may change population dynamics and harvest offtake affecting livelihoods and rural economies.

scholarly journals Impact of internal variability on climate change for the upcoming decades: analysis of the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE large ensembles

2019 ◽  
Vol 156 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse ◽  
Marco Braun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The pace of climate change can have a direct impact on the efforts required to adapt. For short timescales, however, this pace can be masked by internal variability (IV). Over a few decades, this can cause climate change effects to exceed what would be expected from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alone or, to the contrary, cause slowdowns or even hiatuses. This phenomenon is difficult to explore using ensembles such as CMIP5, which are composed of multiple climate models and thus combine both IV and inter-model differences. This study instead uses CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, two state-of-the-art large ensembles (LE) that comprise multiple realizations from a single climate model and a single GHG emission scenario, to quantify the relationship between IV and climate change over the next decades in Canada and the USA. The mean annual temperature and the 3-day maximum and minimum temperatures are assessed. Results indicate that under the RCP8.5, temperatures within most of the individual large ensemble members will increase in a roughly linear manner between 2021 and 2060. However, members of the large ensembles in which a slowdown of warming is found during the 2021–2040 period are two to five times more likely to experience a period of very fast warming in the following decades. The opposite scenario, where the changes expected by 2050 would occur early because of IV, remains fairly uncommon for the mean annual temperature, but occurs in 5 to 15% of the large ensemble members for the temperature extremes.

scholarly journals Representing the majority and not the minority: the importance of the individual in communicating climate change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Illingworth ◽  
Alice Bell ◽  
Stuart Capstick ◽  
Adam Corner ◽  
Piers Forster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Lived Experiences ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Action ◽  
Individual Needs ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. This research presents three case studies, through which a creative approach to developing dialogue around climate change is outlined. By working with three distinct communities and encouraging them to discuss and write poetry about how climate change affects them, we demonstrate how such an approach might be adopted at this level. By analysing the discussions and poetry that arose out of these workshops we show how this community-level approach to communicating climate change is an essential counterpart to wider-scale quantitative research. The engagement of each community with climate change is dependent on the lived experiences of their members; a failure to recognise this results in less effective communications and can also cause communities to feel isolated and helpless. By considering the individual needs and aspirations of these communities we can support effective dialogue around the topic of climate change, and in doing so can better engender positive action against the negative effects of anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals The Shrinking Resource Base of Pastoralism: Saami Reindeer Husbandry in a Climate of Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. C. Tyler ◽  
Inger Hanssen-Bauer ◽  
Eirik J. Førland ◽  
Christian Nellemann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Constraints ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Human Intervention ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Reindeer Husbandry ◽  
Grazing Systems ◽  
Pasture Area ◽  
Military Activity

The productive performance of large ungulates in extensive pastoral grazing systems is modulated simultaneously by the effects of climate change and human intervention independent of climate change. The latter includes the expansion of private, civil and military activity and infrastructure and the erosion of land rights. We used Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway as a model in which to examine trends in, and to compare the influence of, both effects on a pastoral grazing system. Downscaled projections of mean annual temperature over the principal winter pasture area (Finnmarksvidda) closely matched empirical observations across 34 years to 2018. The area, therefore, is not only warming but seems likely to continue to do so. Warming notwithstanding, 50-year (1969–2018) records of local weather (temperature, precipitation and characteristics of the snowpack) demonstrate considerable annual and decadal variation which also seems likely to continue and alternately to amplify and to counter net warming. Warming, moreover, has both positive and negative effects on ecosystem services that influence reindeer. The effects of climate change on reindeer pastoralism are evidently neither temporally nor spatially uniform, nor indeed is the role of climate change as a driver of change in pastoralism even clear. The effects of human intervention on the system, by contrast, are clear and largely negative. Gradual liberalization of grazing rights from the 18th Century has been countered by extensive loss of reindeer pasture. Access to ~50% of traditional winter pasture was lost in the 19th Century owing to the closure of international borders to the passage of herders and their reindeer. Subsequent to this the area of undisturbed pasture within Norway has decreased by 71%. Loss of pasture due to piecemeal development of infrastructure and to administrative encroachment that erodes herders' freedom of action on the land that remains to them, are the principal threats to reindeer husbandry in Norway today. These tangible effects far exceed the putative effects of current climate change on the system. The situation confronting Saami reindeer pastoralism is not unique: loss of pasture and administrative, economic, legal and social constraints bedevil extensive pastoral grazing systems across the globe.

scholarly journals Trends of Hydroclimate Variables in the Upper Huai River Basin: Implications of Managing Water Resource for Climate Change Mitigation

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Abel Girma ◽  
Denghua Yan ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Xinshan Song ◽  
Tianlin Qin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Huai River Basin ◽  
Slope Test ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Average Annual Precipitation

The present study attempted to investigate the trends of mean annual temperature, precipitation, and streamflow changes to determine their relationships in the upper Huai river basin. The Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s slope test estimator, and innovative trend detection (ф) (ITA) methods were used to detect the trends. According to the findings, average annual precipitation shows a descending trend (ф = −0.17) in most stations. An increasing trend was found only in Fuyang station (ф = 1.02). In all stations, the trends of mean annual temperature (ф = 0.36) were abruptly increased. During the past 57 years, the mean air temperature has considerably increased by 12°C/10a. The river streamflow showed a dramatic declining trend in all stations for the duration of the study period (1960–2016) (ф = −4.29). The climate variability in the study region affects the quantity of the streamflow. The river streamflow exhibits decreasing trends from 1965 onwards. The main possible reason for the declining stream flow in the study area is the declining amount of precipitation on some specific months due to the occurrence of climate change. The outcomes of this study could create awareness for the policymakers and members of the scientific community, informing them about the hydroclimatic evolutions across the study basin, and become an inordinate resource for advanced scientific research.

scholarly journals Brief communication: Do 1.0 °C, 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C matter for the future evolution of Alpine glaciers?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loris Compagno ◽  
Sarah Eggs ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Harry Zekollari ◽  
Daniel Farinotti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Global Average ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. With the Paris Agreement, the urgency of limiting ongoing anthropogenic climate change has been recognized. More recent discussions have focused on the difference of limiting the increase in global average temperatures below 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. Here, we assess the impacts that such different scenarios would have on both the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps and the water resources they provide. Our results show that the different temperature targets 5 have important implications for the changes predicted until 2100, and that glaciers might start recovering after the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Patterns and controls of soil respiration and its temperature sensitivity in grassland ecosystems across China

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiguang Feng ◽  
Jingsheng Wang ◽  
Yanjun Song ◽  
Biao Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Respiration ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Temperature Sensitivity ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Grassland Types

Abstract. Soil respiration (Rs), a key process in the terrestrial carbon cycle, is very sensitive to climate change. In this study, we synthesized 54 measurements of annual Rs and 171 estimates of Q10 value (the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration) in grasslands across China. We quantitatively analyzed their spatial patterns and controlling factors in five grassland types, including temperate typical steppe, temperate meadow steppe, temperate desert steppe, alpine grassland, and warm-tropical grassland. Results showed that the mean (± SE) annual Rs was 582.0 ± 57.9 g C m−2 yr−1 across Chinese grasslands. Annual Rs significantly differed among grassland types, and positively correlated with mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, soil organic carbon content and aboveground biomass, but negatively correlated with latitude and soil pH (P < 0.05). Among these factors, mean annual precipitation was the primary factor controlling the spatial variation of annual Rs in Chinese grasslands. The mean contributions of growing season Rs and heterotrophic respiration to annual Rs were 78.7 % and 72.8 %, respectively. Moreover, the mean (± SE) of Q10 across Chinese grasslands was 2.60 ± 0.08, ranging from 1.03 to 8.13, and varied largely within and among grassland types, and among soil temperature measurement depths. Generally, the seasonal variation of soil respiration in Chinese grasslands cannot be well explained by soil temperature using the van't Hoff equation. Longitude and altitude were the dominant driving factors and accounted for 26.0 % of the variation in Q10 derived by soil temperature at the depth of 5 cm. Overall, our findings advance our understanding of the spatial variation and environmental control of soil respiration and Q10 across Chinese grasslands, and also improve our ability to predict soil carbon efflux under climate change on the regional scale.

scholarly journals Are GRACE-era Terrestrial Water Trends Driven by Anthropogenic Climate Change?

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. T. Fasullo ◽  
D. M. Lawrence ◽  
S. C. Swenson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Anomalous Nature

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. The findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.

scholarly journals Representing the majority and not the minority: the importance of the individual in communicating climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Illingworth ◽  
Alice Bell ◽  
Stuart Capstick ◽  
Adam Corner ◽  
Piers Forster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Lived Experiences ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Action ◽  
Individual Needs ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. This research presents three case studies, through which a creative approach to developing dialogue around climate change is outlined. By working with three distinct communities and encouraging them to discuss and write poetry about how climate change affects them, we demonstrate how such an approach might be adopted at this level. By analysing the discussions and poetry that arose out of these workshops we show how this community-level approach to communicating climate change is an essential counterpart to wider-scale quantitative research. The engagement of each community with climate change is dependent on the lived experiences of their members; a failure to recognize this results in less effective communications and can also cause communities to feel isolated and helpless. By considering the individual needs and aspirations of these communities we can support effective dialogue around the topic of climate change, and in doing so can better engender positive action against the negative effects of anthropogenic climate change.

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