scholarly journals The Realization of Extreme Tornadic Storm Events under Future Anthropogenic Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (14) ◽  
pp. 5251-5265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Trapp ◽  
Kimberly A. Hoogewind
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Basic Question ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Atmospheric State ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract This research seeks to answer the basic question of how current-day extreme tornadic storm events might be realized under future anthropogenic climate change. The pseudo global warming (PGW) methodology was adapted for this purpose. Three contributions to the CMIP5 archive were used to obtain the mean 3D atmospheric state simulated during May 1990–99 and May 2090–99. The climate change differences (or Δs) in temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and winds were added to NWP analyses of three high-end tornadic storm events, and this modified atmospheric state was then used for initial and boundary conditions for real-data WRF Model simulations of the events at high resolution. Comparison of an ensemble of these simulations with control simulations (CTRL) facilitated assessment of PGW effects. In contrast to the robust development of supercellular convection in each CTRL, the combined effects of increased convective inhibition (CIN) and decreased parcel lifting under PGW led to a failure of convection initiation in many of the experiments. Those experiments that had sufficient matching between the CIN and lifting tended to generate stronger convective updrafts than CTRL, although not in proportion to the projected higher levels of convective available potential energy (CAPE) under PGW. In addition, the experiments with enhanced updrafts also tended to have enhanced vertical rotation. In fact, such supercellular convection was even found in simulations that were driven with PGW-reduced environmental wind shear. Notably, the PGW modifications did not induce a change in the convective morphology in any of the PGW experiments with significant convective storminess.

Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-57
Author(s):  
Emily Bercos-Hickey ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
William A. Gallus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Tornadic Storms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractThe impact of climate change on severe storms and tornadoes remains uncertain, largely owing to inconsistencies in observational data and limitations of climate models. We performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. The choice of events includes winter, nocturnal, and spring tornadic storms to provide insight into how the timing and seasonality of storms may affect their response to climate change. Updraft helicity (UH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), and convective inhibition (CIN) were used to determine the favorability for the three tornadic storm events in the different climate states. We found that from the pre-industrial to present, the potential for tornadic storms decreased in the winter event and increased in the nocturnal and spring events. With future climate change, the potential for tornadic storms increased in the winter and nocturnal events in association with increased CAPE, and decreased in the spring event despite greater CAPE.

Paradox Negative Effects of the mid-Pliocene Warming on the Climatic Suitability of Six Mediterranean Sandfly Species in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-156
Author(s):  
Attila J. Trájer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Mediterranean Species ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference

The Pliocene era could be the last time when sandfly (Diptera: Psychodidae) species were widespread in Europe. Within the Pliocene, the mid-Pliocene period is an important model period in the investigation of the future effects of anthropogenic climate change. In this study, the mid-Pliocene potential distribution of six Mediterranean sandfly species was modelled based on the M2 mid-Pliocene cold and mid-Pliocene warm paleoclimatic reconstructions. It was found that the cold period’s potential occurrence of sandfly species could be notably more extended than the distribution of the taxa in the warm period. The difference is less expressed in the case of the West Mediterranean species, but it is particularly visible in the circum-Mediterranean and East Mediterranean taxa. It can be concluded that not the changes in the mean annual temperature, but the increase of the precipitation patterns and the wetter climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period resulted in the observed differences. The results imply that the use of mid-Pliocene warming as a model of the present climatic changes can be handled with caution in the performing of biogeographic proxies for vector sandflies related to the anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals Are GRACE-era Terrestrial Water Trends Driven by Anthropogenic Climate Change?

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. T. Fasullo ◽  
D. M. Lawrence ◽  
S. C. Swenson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Anomalous Nature

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. The findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.

scholarly journals Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep G. Canadell ◽  
C. P. Meyer ◽  
Garry D. Cook ◽  
Andrew Dowdy ◽  
Peter R. Briggs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
The Past ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractFire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia’s forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change.

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Scopes Trial: Young-Earth Creationism, Creation Science, and the Evangelical Denial of Climate Change

Religions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
K. L. Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Crisis ◽  
Biblical Authority ◽  
Scopes Trial ◽  
Creation Science ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
Young Earth Creationism ◽  
American Evangelicalism

In the century since the Scopes Trial, one of the most influential dogmas to shape American evangelicalism has been that of young-earth creationism. This article explains why, with its arm of “creation science,” young-earth creationism is a significant factor in evangelicals’ widespread denial of anthropogenic climate change. Young-earth creationism has become closely intertwined with doctrines such as the Bible’s divine authority and the Imago Dei, as well as with social issues such as abortion and euthanasia. Addressing this aspect of the environmental crisis among evangelicals will require a re-orientation of biblical authority so as to approach social issues through a hermeneutic that is able to acknowledge the reality and imminent threat of climate change.

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