Trend Detection in Precipitation Data in Climatic Station

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Zeleňáková ◽  
Pavol Purcz ◽  
Helena Hlavatá
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Precipitation Time Series ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rainfall Seasonality ◽  
Hydroclimatic Variables

Trends and changes in precipitation extremes have been a focus of research over the past decade. Observations show that changes are occurring in the amount, intensity, frequency and type of precipitation. Climate variability has created the need to study subsequent changes in hydroclimatic variables (e.g. rainfall, streamflow and evapotranspira-tion) to understand the regional effects of climate change. Mainly agricultural activities and water management activi-ties – water supply, urban drainage, and hydraulic structures management are patterned according to rainfall seasonality. Trend detection in precipitation time series is crucial for water resources management. Many researchers all over the word have investigated hydrologic variables trends at various temporal scales. In this paper we investigate the trends in precipitation time series in climatic station Košice, Slovakia in the period 1981–2013. We address the topic of trend detection in precipitation time series combining novel and traditional tools in order to simultaneously tackle the issue of seasonality and interannual variability, which usually characterize natural processes. The analysis proves that, in the case study area, statistically significant trends in precipitation have been undergoing in the last decades, although they have no significant impacts on water resources.

A new approach to detect extreme events: a case study using remotely-sensed precipitation time-series data

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 100618
Author(s):  
Philipe Riskalla Leal ◽  
Ricardo José de Paula Souza e Guimarães ◽  
Fábio Dall Cortivo ◽  
Rayana Santos Araújo Palharini ◽  
Milton Kampel
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Precipitation Time Series ◽  
New Approach

scholarly journals Hydrological simulation of flood transformations in the upper Danube River: Case study of large flood events

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 337-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronika Bačová Mitková ◽  
Pavla Pekárová ◽  
Pavol Miklánek ◽  
Ján Pekár
Keyword(s):  
Natural Transformation ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
The Danube River ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
River Reach ◽  
Flood Waves

Abstract The problem of understand natural processes as factors that restrict, limit or even jeopardize the interests of human society is currently of great concern. The natural transformation of flood waves is increasingly affected and disturbed by artificial interventions in river basins. The Danube River basin is an area of high economic and water management importance. Channel training can result in changes in the transformation of flood waves and different hydrographic shapes of flood waves compared with the past. The estimation and evolution of the transformation of historical flood waves under recent river conditions is only possible by model simulations. For this purpose a nonlinear reservoir cascade model was constructed. The NLN-Danube nonlinear reservoir river model was used to simulate the transformation of flood waves in four sections of the Danube River from Kienstock (Austria) to Štúrovo (Slovakia) under relatively recent river reach conditions. The model was individually calibrated for two extreme events in August 2002 and June 2013. Some floods that occurred on the Danube during the period of 1991–2002 were used for the validation of the model. The model was used to identify changes in the transformational properties of the Danube channel in the selected river reach for some historical summer floods (1899, 1954 1965 and 1975). Finally, a simulation of flood wave propagation of the most destructive Danube flood of the last millennium (August 1501) is discussed.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis and Trend Detection of the Hydrological Extremes of the Danube River at Bratislava

2021 ◽  
Vol 906 (1) ◽  
pp. 012101
Author(s):  
Veronika Bacová Mitková
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
The Danube River ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Measured Water

Abstract The territory of the Danube River Basin is one of the most flood-endangered regions in Europe. The flow regime conditions of the Danube River are continually changing. These changes are the result of natural processes and anthropogenic activities. In the present study, we focused on the statistical analysis and trend detection of the hydrological extremes of the Danube River at Bratislava. This paper firstly analyses the changes in correlation between water levels of the Danube River at Bratislava and Kienstock. Studied period of 1991-2013 included one or three hour measured water levels of the Danube River at Bratislava and Kienstock and shorter periods (1991–1995, 1999–2002, and 2004—2013) were selected for identification of the water level changes at Bratislava. One of the factors that recall the necessity to establish empirical - regression relationships was increasing of water levels of the Danube River at Bratislava (due to sediments accumulation at Bratislava). The results of the analysis indicated an increasing of water levels corresponding to the same flood discharges observed in the past. We also can say that travel time of the Danube floods between Kienstock and Bratislava did not change significantly during the analysed period. In the second part of the paper, we have identified changes in commonly used hydrological characteristics of annual maximum discharges, annual discharges and daily discharges of the Danube River at Bratislava during the period of 1876–2019. We examined whether there is a significant trend in discharges of the Danube River at Bratislava.

Navigating Uncertain Waters : Geographies of Water and Conflict, Shifting Terms and Debates

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leila M. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Critical Assessment ◽  
War And Peace ◽  
The Past ◽  
Water Wars ◽  
The Common ◽  
International Water ◽  
Critical Resources

The debate over whether or not future water scarcities will contribute to heightened conflict and violent war is far from over. In the past decade, there has been a proliferation of books with titles such as Water Wars: Coming Conflicts in the Middle East, Rivers of Discord: International Water Disputes in the Middle East, and Rivers of Fire: The Conflict over Water in the Middle East, with many more undoubtedly planned or in press. This chapter serves as a critical assessment of some of the major themes of this literature and also contributes several concepts and case study examples in order to shift and reframe some of the common bases and assumptions of ongoing discussions. In particular, the concept of scale is used to argue for a broadened notion of “sociopolitical conflict” associated with water resources to overcome weaknesses inherent to dichotomous state-centered understandings of “war” and “peace.” Given the changing nature of contemporary conflicts, “peace” cannot justifiably be understood as the absence of war. Many people, livelihoods, places, and economies are marked by diffuse and persistent conflict. Whether disruptions take the form of gang warfare in cities, the frequency of preventable deaths caused by lack of access to basic needs, or conflict over access to and sharing of critical resources, times of “peace” are notably marked by political instability, death, vulnerability, and other features commonly associated with warfare. Further, given interconnections between environments, people, and places, conflicts at specific sites cannot be abstracted from situations and conditions at other locations and scales. Even if a state is not at “war,” situations of resource use or access may still be marked in important ways by sociopolitical conflict, either past conflicts or ongoing conflicts across other sites and scales. In short, narrow attention to stateto- state warfare detracts from the complexity of relationships between the changing geographies of water resources and sociopolitical conflicts. A multiscalar perspective that highlights manifold and interrelated geographies of “water and conflict” across historical and geographical scales and among multiple sites and actors brings this into relief.

scholarly journals Quantifying uncertainties in precipitation: a case study from Greece

2008 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 19-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Anagnostopoulou ◽  
K. Tolika ◽  
P. Maheras ◽  
H. Reiser ◽  
H. Kutiel
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Precipitation Time Series ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
Greek Region ◽  
High Uncertainty

Abstract. The main objective of the present study was the examination and the quantification of the uncertainties in the precipitation time series over the Greek area, for a 42-year time period. The uncertainty index applied to the rainfall data is a combination (total) of the departures of the rainfall season length, of the median data of the accumulated percentages and of the total amounts of rainfall. Results of the study indicated that all the stations are characterized, on an average basis, by medium to high uncertainty. The stations that presented an increasing rainfall uncertainty were the ones located mainly to the continental parts of the study region. From the temporal analysis of the uncertainty index, it was demonstrated that the greatest percentage of the years, for all the stations time-series, was characterized by low to high uncertainty (intermediate categories of the index). Most of the results of the uncertainty index for the Greek region are similar to the corresponding results of various stations all over the European region.

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis and Modeling of Monthly Rainfall in Saudi Arabia

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1780-1786
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Life Forms ◽  
Future Issue ◽  
Water Resource System ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Precipitation Modeling ◽  
Resource System

Managing of water resources is an important future issue. Modeling is fundamental in preparation and organization of water resource system. Forecasting of occasions request identify proper models to be used in this process. Water is the main living source on earth. The most common and fundamental source of water on earth supporting the survival of the majority of life forms is Rainfall. Time arrangement investigation which incorporates modeling and estimating constitutes a instrument of foremost significance with reference to a wide extend of logical purposes in meteorology (e.g. precipitation, stickiness, temperature, sun powered radiation, surges and drafts). The show work applies the Box-Jenkins approach, utilizing SARIMA (Regular Autoregressive Coordinates Moving Normal) demonstrate is utilized to perform brief term estimates of month to month time arrangement such as precipitation. Modeling the past watched precipitation time arrangement values which result in utilized to anticipate long run amounts in agreement to the past. The demonstrate is tried by confirming the past precipitation information. In turn, the research produces a solid future figure. This show is assessed by implies of the AIC-, BIC-, and SBC- demonstrate.

scholarly journals GFIS (Geographic Forecasting Information System): A Case Study in Water Resources Management

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-63
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information System ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
System A ◽  
Arcview Gis

The current study presents the development of a Forecasting Information System for geographic data (cross-sectional time-series for different geographic regions). GFIS, Geographic Forecasting Information System, was developed with MS Visual Basic (User Interface), ArcView (GIS) and MS Access (DBMS) during the MSc thesis of one of the authors in 2000. GFIS is suitable for the management and forecasting for all time-series that present a geographic dimension and can be illustrated in a Geographical Information System (GIS). The forecasting capabilities of the system extend from classical time-series extrapolation methods (exponential smoothing, regression) (Assimakopoulos, 1994) to more complex methods (Theta model). The applicability of the system was tested with a case study in Water Resources Management. GFIS was used in order to create rainfall forecasts for the watersheds in Lakonia, a region in southern Greece. The estimation, forecasting, planning and management of hydrological resources are of great importance and prerequisite for sustainable development.

From hard to soft: theory and Neolithic studies in Scotland

2011 ◽  
Vol 33 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 7-19
Author(s):  
Kenneth Brophy
Keyword(s):  
The Past

The Scottish Theoretical Archaeology Group (STAG) conference organisers expressed some doubts about how far theory has changed, and impacted, archaeological establishment and academia in Scotland. In this paper, I will argue that Scotland is certainly not isolated in a theoretical sense, although in the past, Scottish archaeology could be accused of being theoretically conservative, or at least dependent on ideas and models developed elsewhere. A case-study looking at Neolithic studies will be used to illustrate that despite some recent critical historiographies of the study of the period in Scotland, archaeologists in Scotland and those working with Scottish material have been theoretically innovative and in step with wider paradigm changes. The study of the Neolithic in Scotland, it could be argued, has been shaped by theory more than the study of any other period; we are not isolated, but rather part of wider networks of discourse.

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