scholarly journals Optimization strategies of human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 7965-7978
Author(s):  
Soumyajyoti Biswas ◽  
◽  
Amit Kr Mandal ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Spreading Process ◽  
The Public ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

<abstract><p>The impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is being felt in all spheres of our lives – cutting across the boundaries of nation, wealth, religions or race. From the time of the first detection of infection among the public, the virus spread though almost all the countries in the world in a short period of time. With humans as the carrier of the virus, the spreading process necessarily depends on the their mobility after being infected. Not only in the primary spreading process, but also in the subsequent spreading of the mutant variants, human mobility plays a central role in the dynamics. Therefore, on one hand travel restrictions of varying degree were imposed and are still being imposed, by various countries both nationally and internationally. On the other hand, these restrictions have severe fall outs in businesses and livelihood in general. Therefore, it is an optimization process, exercised on a global scale, with multiple changing variables. Here we review the techniques and their effects on optimization or proposed optimizations of human mobility in different scales, carried out by data driven, machine learning and model approaches.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Chun Chang ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Yu-An Li ◽  
Cheng-Sheng Lee ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially before outbreaks establish locally, is critical for informing response efforts. In Taiwan, most cases to date were imported or linked to imported cases. Methods In collaboration with Facebook Data for Good, we characterized changes in movement patterns in Taiwan since February 2020, and built metapopulation models that incorporate human movement data to identify the high risk areas of disease spread and assess the potential effects of local travel restrictions in Taiwan. Results We found that mobility changed with the number of local cases in Taiwan in the past few months. For each city, we identified the most highly connected areas that may serve as sources of importation during an outbreak. We showed that the risk of an outbreak in Taiwan is enhanced if initial infections occur around holidays. Intracity travel reductions have a higher impact on the risk of an outbreak than intercity travel reductions, while intercity travel reductions can narrow the scope of the outbreak and help target resources. The timing, duration, and level of travel reduction together determine the impact of travel reductions on the number of infections, and multiple combinations of these can result in similar impact. Conclusions To prepare for the potential spread within Taiwan, we utilized Facebook’s aggregated and anonymized movement and colocation data to identify cities with higher risk of infection and regional importation. We developed an interactive application that allows users to vary inputs and assumptions and shows the spatial spread of the disease and the impact of intercity and intracity travel reduction under different initial conditions. Our results can be used readily if local transmission occurs in Taiwan after relaxation of border control, providing important insights into future disease surveillance and policies for travel restrictions.

scholarly journals Bureaucratic Reform and The Challange of Good Governance Implementation in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-42
Author(s):  
Muhadam Labolo ◽  
Etin Indrayani
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
The Public ◽  
Government Bureaucracy ◽  
Local Government Level ◽  
Important Note ◽  
Corrupt Behavior ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Bureaucratic reformation is the fundamental structuring efforts are expected to havean impact on changing systems and structures. The system deals with the relationshipbetween the unsure or the element that influence each other and are associated to makea form totally. The change in one element can influence the other elements in the system.The structure relates with the order of who arrayed a regular basis and systematically.Structure changes is also included with the mechanism and procedure, human resources,facilities and infrastructure, organization and organization’s environment in terms of theachievement of the efficiency of government bureaucracy. These changes include allowingall of the aspects of the bureaucracy has sufficient capacity to carry out the duties and thebasic function. Bureaucratic failure in a term for service the public until now representpoor government both at central and local government level. The urgency of bureaucraticreform in Indonesia is driven by a number of important note. First, the increased apparatusexpenditure is caused by increased of apparatus recruitment without unmeasured control.Second, the ballooning cost of democracy (election) affected the floated of local governmentbudget have increased significantly. The magnitude of the election budget and the impact ongovernmental bureaucracy resulted not ready to close the budget deficit. More than thesebureaucracy has loyalty dilemma caused by dispersed of concentration in every election’sactivity. Third, increased of develop the bureaucratic organization without planning andanalysis of the measured trigger financing and recruitment of apparatus that not less. Asa result, the bureaucracy in most areas are overload, or even lack in outside of Java. Inother side, less of local incomes make dependence to central government, while the localgovernment expenditure is to far from efficiency, even tend to be less controlled due to thehigh cost of the organization. Fourth, extensive corrupt behavior in almost all public sectorbureaucracy encourages lose confidence as a public servant.Keywords: Bureaucratic Reformation, bureaucracy design, local government, GoodGovernance

Impact of volcanic halogens on the ozone layer and climate, a look to the past to highlight the present

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Balcone-Boissard ◽  
Thiébaut D'Augustin ◽  
Georges Boudon ◽  
Slimane Bekki ◽  
Magali Bonifacie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Field Work ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Volatile Species ◽  
Magma Supply ◽  
Global Impacts ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Explosive eruptions of the Plinian type inject large amounts of particles (pumice, ash, aerosols) and volatile species into the atmosphere. They result from the rapid discharge of a magma chamber and involve large volumes of magma (from a km&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; to hundreds of km&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;). Such eruptions correspond to a rapid ascent of magma in the conduit driven by the exsolution of volatile species. If the magma supply is continuous, this jet produces a convective eruptive column that can reach tens of km in height and transports gas and particles (pumice, ash, aerosols) directly into the stratosphere. Depending on the latitude of the volcano, the volume of implied magma, the height of the eruptive plume and the composition of the released gaseous and particulate mixture, these events can strongly affect the environment at the local or even at a global scale. Almost all studies on global impacts of volcanic eruptions have largely focused on the sulfur component. Volcanoes are also responsible for the emission of halogens which have a crucial impact on the ozone layer and therefore the climate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The objective of our project is to revisit the issue of the impact of volcanism on the atmosphere and climate by considering not only the sulfur component but also the halogen component. We will provide field work-based constraints on the strength of halogen (Cl and Br) emissions and on degassing processes for key eruptions, we will characterise the dynamics of volcanic plumes, notably the vertical distribution of emissions and we will explore and quantify the respective impacts of sulfur and halogen emissions on the ozone layer and climate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here we will shed light on the methodology that will combine field campaign, laboratory analysis of collected samples and a hierarchy of modelling tools to study. We use an approach combining field studies, petrological characterization, geochemical measurements including isotopic data, estimation of the volume of involved magma and the height of injection of gases and particles by modelling the eruptive plume dynamic and numerical simulation of the impacts at the plume scale and at the global scale. &amp;#160;The first halogen budget will also be presented.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz U.G. Kraemer ◽  
Chia-Hung Yang ◽  
Bernardo Gutierrez ◽  
Chieh-Hsi Wu ◽  
Brennan Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Lockdown related travel behavior undermines the containment of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishant Kishore ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Pamela P. Martinez ◽  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTIn response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented policies of travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public’s response to announcements of lockdowns - defined here as restrictions on both local movement or long distance travel - will determine how effective these kinds of interventions are. Here, we measure the impact of the announcement and implementation of lockdowns on human mobility patterns by analyzing aggregated mobility data from mobile phones. We find that following the announcement of lockdowns, both local and long distance movement increased. To examine how these behavioral responses to lockdown policies may contribute to epidemic spread, we developed a simple agent-based spatial model. We find that travel surges following announcements of lockdowns can increase seeding of the epidemic in rural areas, undermining the goal of the lockdown of preventing disease spread. Appropriate messaging surrounding the announcement of lockdowns and measures to decrease unnecessary travel are important for preventing these unintended consequences of lockdowns.

scholarly journals A significant increase in Tuberculosis diagnosis is required to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on its future burden

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Tovar ◽  
Alberto Aleta ◽  
Joaquin Sanz ◽  
Yamir Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Unintended Effects ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Future Burden ◽  
Tuberculosis Diagnosis ◽  
To Come ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has greatly disrupted our everyday life, forcing the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions in many countries worldwide and putting public health services and healthcare systems worldwide under stress. These circumstances are leading to unintended effects such as the increase in the burden of other diseases. Here, using a data-driven epidemiological model for Tuberculosis (TB) spreading, we describe the expected rise in TB incidence and mortality that can be attributable to the impact of COVID-19 on TB surveillance and treatment in four high-burden countries. Our calculations show that the reduction in the diagnosis of new TB cases due to the COVID-19 pandemic could result in 824250 (CI 702416-940873) excess deaths in India, 288064 (CI 245932-343311) in Indonesia, 145872 (CI 120734-171542) in Pakistan, and 37603 (CI 27852-52411) in Kenya. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to revert such unflattering TB burden scenarios by increasing the pre-covid diagnosis capabilities by at least 75% during 2 to 4 years. This would prevent almost all TB-related excess mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which will be observed if nothing is done to prevent it. Our work, therefore, provides guidelines for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis epidemic in the years to come.

scholarly journals 1441Indirect effects of COVID-19 in Australia during 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Reynolds ◽  
Lynelle Moon ◽  
Michelle Gourley
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Important Health ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Focus of Presentation COVID-19 is a major health threat that has led to substantial disruption to almost all parts of society worldwide. We brought together available data to assess the impact of the first 12 months of COVID-19 in Australia, examining initial data on the indirect effects of the pandemic on Australian’s health and welfare. Findings During 2020, Australia recorded lower than expected total mortality, in contrast to many other countries where excess mortality (higher than expected deaths) was observed. Age-standardised death rates for influenza and pneumonia, and chronic lower respiratory infections during both waves of COVID-19 cases were lower than in previous years. The initial impacts of the epidemic in Australia appear to have increased levels of psychological distress. However, the number of deaths by suicide in NSW, Victoria and Queensland have remained at similar levels to previous years. Important health behaviours, such as physical activity and alcohol consumption, worsened for some people but improved for others. The travel restrictions appear to have caused a reduction in injuries due to falls and road traffic accidents, particularly during the first lockdown in March-April 2020. Conclusions/Implications Public health measures introduced to control the spread of COVID-19 in Australia had both positive and negative health effects. The impact of these effects will need to be monitored over time. Key messages The indirect effects of COVID-19 in Australia are wide-ranging and include impacts on mental health, health behaviours and deaths from other diseases.

scholarly journals Data-driven control over short-period internal multiples in media with a horizontally layered overburden

2020 ◽  
Vol 221 (2) ◽  
pp. 769-787 ◽  
Author(s):  
P Elison ◽  
M S Dukalski ◽  
K de Vos ◽  
D J van Manen ◽  
J O A Robertsson
Keyword(s):  
Data Driven ◽  
Minimum Phase ◽  
Sonic Log ◽  
Phase Condition ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Marchenko Equation ◽  
Structural Image ◽  
Internal Multiples ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conventional Scheme

SUMMARY Short-period internal multiples, resulting from closely spaced interfaces, may interfere with their generating (bandlimited) primaries, and hence they pose a long-standing challenge in their prediction and removal. A recently proposed method based on the Marchenko equation enables removal of the entire overburden-related scattering by means of calculating an inverse transmission response. However, the method relies on time windowing and can thus be inexact in the presence of short-period internal scattering. In this work, we present a detailed analysis of the impact of band-limitation on the Marchenko method. We show the influence of an incorrect first guess, and that adding multidimensional energy conservation and a minimum phase principle may be used to correctly account for both long- and short-period internal multiple scattering. The proposed method can currently only be solved for media with a laterally invariant overburden, since a multidimensional minimum phase condition is not well understood for truly 2-D and 3-D media. We demonstrate the virtue of the proposed scheme with a complex acoustic numerical model that is based on sonic log measurements in the Middle East. The results suggest not only that the conventional scheme can be robust in this setting, but that the ‘augmented’ Marchenko method is superior, as the latter produces a structural image identical to one where the finely layered overburden is missing. This is the first demonstration of a data-driven method to account for short-period internal multiples beyond 1-D.

scholarly journals Impact of lockdown measures in abating the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from India’s phased approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Singh ◽  
K Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Public ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and characterized the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. India enacted such measures early on for effective mitigation and suppression to reduce community transmission, including an onerous national lockdown. The impact of the health system governance is quite apparent among all stakeholders including the public in such emergency contexts. Methods We compiled the daily data on the number of COVID-19 cases, recoveries and deaths from January 30th until June 16th, 2020. Different stages were categorized from post PHEIC declaration (pre-lockdown) phase to lockdown phases and unlocking phase as implemented. The several measures adopted by the national government were structured in four broad categories as Governance and socioeconomic, travel restrictions, lockdown and public health measures. These measures were compared during each phase. Results It was revealed that while the cases are rising the phased restrictions has helped in delaying the peak and remarkably interrupted the rate of transmission. The national average doubling rate was 3 days at the beginning which improved to 22 days. The basic reproduction number remained close to 1 during the last week of lockdown. However, the initial interruption of needed aid and technical support had negative social and economic impacts on the affected population. Conclusions As the situation abates following the measures adopted by the government, an articulate strategy of unlocking through increased testing and prompt isolation needs to be developed for more effective reduction and protecting the livelihoods allowing to further relax the lockdown measures. Key messages There is need for the local government to consider a strategic easing of the lockdown for protecting the rights of the most affected population. As the transmission rates are low, the easing of lockdown can be benefited from improved testing and prompt isolation.

scholarly journals Impact of Travel Ban Implementation on COVID-19 Spread in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea During the Early Phase of the Pandemic: a Comparative Study.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Xiao Wei Gwee ◽  
Pearleen Chua Ee Yong ◽  
Min Xian Wang ◽  
Junxiong Pang
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The Other ◽  
Response Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Transmission

Abstract Introduction: Since January 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has elicited imposition of some form of travel restrictions by almost all countries in the world. Most of which persist to this day even as some restrictions have been gradually eased. It remains unclear if the trade-off from the unprecedented disruption to air travel was well worth in the course of pandemic containment.Methods: A comparative analysis was conducted on Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea’s COVID-19 response. Data on COVID-19 cases, travel-related and community interventions, socio-economic profile were consolidated. Trends on imported and local cases were analyzed using computations of moving averages, rate of change, particularly in response to distinct waves of travel-related interventions due to the outbreak in China, South Korea, Iran & Italy, and Europe.Findings: South Korea’s travel restrictions consistently lagged in terms of timeliness and magnitude. The first wave of travel restrictions against China was implemented 34 days after the outbreak in Wuhan, compared to 22-26 days taken by Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Restrictions against all countries came after 91 days, compared to 78-80 days for the other three countries. Taiwan and Hong Kong were the most efficient in adopting travel restrictions. Singapore’s belated measures and higher importation risk as compared to the other three Asian countries manifested in its deteriorating local transmission. The rate of change of imported cases fell by 1.08-1.43 across all four countries following the first wave of intervention against China, and by 0.22-0.52 in all countries except South Korea in the fifth wave against all international travellers. Conclusion: Travel restriction was effective in preventing COVID-19 case importation in early outbreak phase. However, evidence of its effect on local transmission was lacking. The impact of travel restrictions in containing epidemics cannot be disentangled from local non-pharmaceutical interventions concurrently implemented. Overall, measures should be complementary, with more emphasis on the latter to contain the outbreak effectively.

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