Complexity Evolution of Water Price-Supply Systems in an Irrigation District

2015 ◽  
Vol 1092-1093 ◽  
pp. 1219-1222
Author(s):  
Bao Gui Xin ◽  
Zhi Heng Wu

A water price-supply model is presented to describe the relationship between water price and water supplier's decision in a closed irrigation district. Then some nonlinear studies are implemented, such as Neimark-Sacker bifurcation , chaotic attractor, Lyapunov exponents and time series. It shows that the parameter of the water price can lead the price-supply system from stability into bifurcation and chaos.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4425
Author(s):  
Taewoo Kim

In this paper, I investigate the relationship between previous going-concern audit opinions and subsequent asymmetric timeliness in accounting. Using the time-series and price-based models and conservatism proxy, I find that firms with going-concern audit opinions subsequently report losses in a more timely manner than firms that did not receive going-concern audit opinions. Furthermore, I also find that firms exiting going-concern audit opinions are more likely to report losses rather than gains in a timely manner, compared to firms non-exiting from going-concern opinions. This study extends the prior research by exploring the association between going-concern opinions and accounting conservatism from the perspective of client firms—that is, how firms behave strategically and conservatively to bypass going-concern opinions, once the firms had received previous going-concern opinions.


2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 359-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Freya Bailes ◽  
Roger T. Dean

this study investigates the relationship between acoustic patterns in contemporary electroacoustic compositions, and listeners' real-time perceptions of their structure and affective content. Thirty-two participants varying in musical expertise (nonmusicians, classical musicians, expert computer musicians) continuously rated the affect (arousal and valence) and structure (change in sound) they perceived in four compositions of approximately three minutes duration. Time series analyses tested the hypotheses that sound intensity influences listener perceptions of structure and arousal, and spectral flatness influences perceptions of structure and valence. Results suggest that intensity strongly influences perceived change in sound, and to a lesser extent listener perceptions of arousal. Spectral flatness measures were only weakly related to listener perceptions, and valence was not strongly shaped by either acoustic measure. Differences in response by composition and musical expertise suggest that, particularly with respect to the perception of valence, individual experience (familiarity and liking), and meaningful sound associations mediate perception.


Author(s):  
Kara G. Cafferty ◽  
David J. Muth ◽  
Jacob J. Jacobson ◽  
Kenneth M. Bryden

Engineering feedstock supply systems that deliver affordable, high-quality biomass remains a challenge for the emerging bioenergy industry. Cellulosic biomass is geographically distributed and has diverse physical and chemical properties. Because of this feedstock supply systems that deliver cellulosic biomass resources to biorefineries require integration of a broad set of engineered unit operations. These unit operations include harvest and collection, storage, preprocessing, and transportation processes. Design decisions for each feedstock supply system unit operation impact the engineering design and performance of the other system elements. These interdependencies are further complicated by spatial and temporal variances such as climate conditions and biomass characteristics. This paper develops an integrated model that couples a SQL-based data management engine and systems dynamics models to design and evaluate biomass feedstock supply systems. The integrated model, called the Biomass Logistics Model (BLM), includes a suite of databases that provide 1) engineering performance data for hundreds of equipment systems, 2) spatially explicit labor cost datasets, and 3) local tax and regulation data. The BLM analytic engine is built in the systems dynamics software package Powersim™. The BLM is designed to work with thermochemical and biochemical based biofuel conversion platforms and accommodates a range of cellulosic biomass types (i.e., herbaceous residues, short-rotation woody and herbaceous energy crops, woody residues, algae, etc.). The BLM simulates the flow of biomass through the entire supply chain, tracking changes in feedstock characteristics (i.e., moisture content, dry matter, ash content, and dry bulk density) as influenced by the various operations in the supply chain. By accounting for all of the equipment that comes into contact with biomass from the point of harvest to the throat of the conversion facility and the change in characteristics, the BLM evaluates economic performance of the engineered system, as well as determining energy consumption and green house gas performance of the design. This paper presents a BLM case study delivering corn stover to produce cellulosic ethanol. The case study utilizes the BLM to model the performance of several feedstock supply system designs. The case study also explores the impact of temporal variations in climate conditions to test the sensitivity of the engineering designs. Results from the case study show that under certain conditions corn stover can be delivered to the cellulosic ethanol biorefinery for $35/dry ton.


2007 ◽  
Vol 191 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Page ◽  
Shakoor Hajat ◽  
R. Sari Kovats

BackgroundSeasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.AimsTo assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.MethodTime-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.ResultsNo spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 °, each 1 ° increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.ConclusionsThere is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.


2021 ◽  
Vol 257 ◽  
pp. 83-100
Author(s):  
Andrew Harvey

This article shows how new time series models can be used to track the progress of an epidemic, forecast key variables and evaluate the effects of policies. The univariate framework of Harvey and Kattuman (2020, Harvard Data Science Review, Special Issue 1—COVID-19, https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/ozgjx0yn) is extended to model the relationship between two or more series and the role of common trends is discussed. Data on daily deaths from COVID-19 in Italy and the UK provides an example of leading indicators when there is a balanced growth. When growth is not balanced, the model can be extended by including a non-stationary component in one of the series. The viability of this model is investigated by examining the relationship between new cases and deaths in the Florida second wave of summer 2020. The balanced growth framework is then used as the basis for policy evaluation by showing how some variables can serve as control groups for a target variable. This approach is used to investigate the consequences of Sweden’s soft lockdown coronavirus policy in the spring of 2020.


2020 ◽  

This paper examines the relationship between financial constraints and the stock returns explaining the pricing of stock through financially constrained and unconstrained firms in Pakistan. Three proxies; total assets, tangible to total assets and cash holding to total assets ratios) have been used for financial constraints and the study tried to investigate that either the investors are compensated for taking the extra risk or not in Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). We find that the financially constrained firms don’t earn higher returns when their capital structure is heavy with liquid assets and their cash flows are more than the unconstrained firms in PSX. Moreover, the time series results showed that the risk-adjusted returns of the most constrained firms give the mix and somewhat negative and significant and insignificant results for the Pakistani firms listed in PSX sorted based on tangible to total assets and Cash holding to total asset ratios. Keywords: Asset Pricing, Financial constraints, risk-adjusted performance of portfolios


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