Industrial decarbonization done right: identifying success factors for well-functioning permitting processes

1 Introduction 1.1 The urgency of industrial decarbonization The last few years have seen several of the world’s largest carbon dioxide-emitting countries and leading heavy industry companies committing to mid-century net-zero targets (Buckley 2021; Denyer and Kashiwagi 2020; McCurry 2020; Myers 2020). Consequently, the discussion on economy-wide transition to net-zero is accelerating, with focus shifting from “if” to “when” and “how”, even for heavy industry sectors like steel, cement and chemicals. This makes it increasingly urgent to analyse not just whether it is technologically feasible to decarbonize heavy industry, but also investigate issues more directly related to practical implementation. This includes site-specific planning, infrastructure availability, and consultation with local authorities and other stakeholders. Many of the latter considerations are formalized as part of the permitting processes that are an essential vehicle to ensure that industrial interests are balanced against interests of society at large. However, doing this balancing act can turn out to be very complicated and associated with uncertainties as to their outcome, as well as being demanding in resources and time. At the same time, to ensure broad buy-in and support from society, the investments needed must be implemented in a way that takes a broad spectrum of sustainability concerns into account, not just climate change mitigation. A key question is if and how permitting processes can run more smoothly and efficiently while still ensuring inclusive consultations, fair procedures and adherence to legal certainty. This policy brief discusses this question from the starting point of Swedish conditions, but many of the points raised will be relevant for a broader international discussion on taking industrial decarbonization to implementation. 1.2 Industrial transition and permitting processes in Sweden Decarbonization of the industrial sector in Sweden essentially entails a relatively small number of investment projects in the cement, steel, petrochemical and refinery sectors, where the vast majority of carbon emissions are concentrated (Karltorp et al. 2019; Nykvist et al. 2020). However, while few in number, the size of these investments means that their implementation will by necessity become relevant to many other parts of society. In connection with the increasing focus on how to implement industrial decarbonization in Sweden, discussions about permitting processes have been brought higher up on the agenda. While there has been an active discussion on permitting processes in Sweden for quite some time, it has primarily been focused on aspects related to mining and wind power (Larsen et al. 2017; Raitio et al. 2020). The last few years have, however, focused increasingly on industrial projects, in particular related to a proposed – though eventually cancelled – expansion of an oil refinery in the southwestern part of the country (Blad 2020). In terms of political discussions, both the governmental initiative Fossil-free Sweden (2020) and the Swedish Climate Policy Council (2020) emphasize that permitting processes need to become faster in order for Sweden’s industrial transition to be implemented in line with the time plan set by the 2017 Swedish Climate Act. Business representatives and organizations are also voicing concerns about the slow speed of permitting (Balanskommissionen 2019; Jacke 2018). At the same time, criticism has been raised that much of the environmental damage done in Sweden comes from activities conducted within limits set by environmental permits, which could be a flaw in the system (Malmaeus and Lindblom 2019). Finally, recent public inquiries have also discussed permitting processes.