scholarly journals Allocating Undecided Voters in Pre-election Polling

Tripodos ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Spencer Kimball
Keyword(s):  
Political Communication ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Test Question ◽  
Accuracy Test ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Election Poll ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Election Polls

Is there a way to make pre-election polls more accurate? This paper seeks to test some of the most popular methods of allocating ‘undecided’ voters, based on the underlying theory that the allocation of undecided voters will improve the public’s expectations of election results and a pollster’s claims about accuracy. Polling literature states the most popular methods to incorporate undecided voters include asking a “leaner” question that follows a ballot test question, or allocating the undecided proportionally to their vote preference. Both methods were used in this study, along with a third option in which an even-allocation, or essentially no allocation of undecided voters, took place. The study incorporates n=54 pre-election polls conducted in 20 different states, between October 26 and November 4, 2018, which were used to compare the three allocation methods. This includes an Absolute Error test (deviation between poll results and election results, Mosteller et al., 1949), a Statistical Accuracy test (absolute error compared with the poll’s margin of error, Kimball, 2017), and a Predictive Accuracy test (did the poll predict the actual election winner?). The study found no significant difference between the accuracy of the polls that included an allocation of undecided voters as compared to those that did not (χ2 (2, N=161)=.200, p=.905), suggesting that allocating undecided voters does not detract from, nor add to the reliability and validity of a pre-election poll. Keywords: undecided voter, pre-election polling, poll accuracy, allocation of undecided voter, political communication.

scholarly journals Allocating Undecided Voters in Pre-election Polling

Tripodos ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Spencer Kimball
Keyword(s):  
Political Communication ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Test Question ◽  
Accuracy Test ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Election Poll ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Election Polls

Is there a way to make pre-election polls more accurate? This paper seeks to test some of the most popular methods of allocating ‘undecided’ voters, based on the underlying theory that the allocation of undecided voters will improve the public’s expectations of election results and a pollster’s claims about accuracy. Polling literature states the most popular methods to incorporate undecided voters include asking a “leaner” question that follows a ballot test question, or allocating the undecided proportionally to their vote preference. Both methods were used in this study, along with a third option in which an even-allocation, or essentially no allocation of undecided voters, took place. The study incorporates n=54 pre-election polls conducted in 20 different states, between October 26 and November 4, 2018, which were used to compare the three allocation methods. This includes an Absolute Error test (deviation between poll results and election results, Mosteller et al., 1949), a Statistical Accuracy test (absolute error compared with the poll’s margin of error, Kimball, 2017), and a Predictive Accuracy test (did the poll predict the actual election winner?). The study found no significant difference between the accuracy of the polls that included an allocation of undecided voters as compared to those that did not (χ2 (2, N=161)=.200, p=.905), suggesting that allocating undecided voters does not detract from, nor add to the reliability and validity of a pre-election poll. Keywords: undecided voter, pre-election polling, poll accuracy, allocation of undecided voter, political communication.

scholarly journals Are Certain Elections More Predictable than Others? A Series of Bivariate Analyses of the Impact of Electoral Characteristics Upon the Predictability of British National Elections from 1945 to 2017.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Tudor
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Unique Nature ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dominant Paradigm ◽  
Limited Scope

Despite a wealth of literature existing with regards to electoral prediction, no pieces exist that address whether certain elections are more predictable than others. Indeed, the existing literature invariably focuses upon the accuracy and efficacy of the methods used to predict elections, without addressing the nature of the elections that are being predicted. Consequently, a fundamental avenue of enquiry remains unexplored within the current literature, resulting in a stark and surprising lacuna and rendering the dominant paradigm problematic. To remedy this deficiency, this paper addresses whether certain elections are more predictable than others and ascertains which characteristics cause their predictability to vary. Owing to both temporal and spatial limitations, electoral predictability is addressed with a specific focus on British national elections from 1945 to 2017. In order to achieve its aims, this paper engages in a series of bivariate analyses between measures of predictive accuracy and electoral characteristics. Specifically, the correlation between the total dichotomous and total mean absolute error exhibited by pre-election polls conducted for the twenty-three studied elections and six specified electoral characteristics is ascertained and utilised to draw conclusions. Ultimately, this paper finds that certain elections are indeed more predictable than others, with certain characteristics having a greater impact on the studied measures of predictability than others. However, due to both the small size of the utilised data set and its limited scope, it is accepted that the conclusions drawn are only indicative in nature. Despite this, owing to the unique nature of this paper, it is hoped that the conclusions drawn will provide a foundation for the future exploration of this hitherto unexplored avenue of enquiry to further our collective understanding of the predictability of elections.

scholarly journals Realignment of Ideal Lumbar Lordosis in Correction Surgery: A Novel Predictive Formula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Chen ◽  
Yilin Yang ◽  
Heng Wang ◽  
Tianjunke Zhou ◽  
Xiao Zhai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Lumbar Lordosis ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Asymptomatic Volunteers ◽  
Correction Surgery

Abstract Study design: Retrospective cohort studySummary of Background Data：Restoring the sagittal balance is the significant procedure, which could be evaluated by the relationship of thoracic kyphosis (TK) and lumbar lordosis (LL). Several lumbar lordosis predictive formulas have been proposed. But previous study ignored importance of reciprocal relationship between regional spinal modifications in some ways.Objectives: Realignment of the lumbar lordosis is fundamental in spinal surgery and several formulas have been established to predict the appropriate lumbar lordosis. However, the predictive accuracy of these formulas did not reach their targets. The present study introduced a novel predictive formula for realignment of lumbar lordosis in correction surgery, aiming to predict the individualized ideal lumbar lordosis for different patients.Methods: A total of 311 asymptomatic volunteers were recruited: 220 volunteers for the development of the formula, and the other 91 subjects for validation. General and radiological parameters were evaluated. Correlation analysis between maxLL and other parameters was performed. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to establish the predictive formula using variables related to maxLL. Comparison between predicated maxLL yielded by our formula and other 7 formulas and actual maxLL were conducted to determine the reliability and validity of our predictive formula.Results: MaxLL was correlated with maxTK, SS, PT and PI (all P<0.05). The adjusted multiple regression analysis showed that there were significant associations of maxLL with maxTK and PI (all P<0.001), and the formula was established as follows: maxLL=0.6*maxTK+0.5*PI+3. No significant difference was found between actual maxLL and predicted maxLL yielded by our formula (P=0.408), and our predictive formula has been demonstrated sound reliability and validity. Conclusion: MaxTK and PI were the primary contributors to maxLL, and our novel formula could be safely utilized to predict the ideal lumbar lordosis for patients before surgery.

How Czecho-Slovakia Bounces Back: Population-Based Validation of the Brief Resilience Scale in Two Central European Countries

2021 ◽  
pp. 003329412110296
Author(s):  
Jana Furstova ◽  
Natalia Kascakova ◽  
Iva Polackova Solcova ◽  
Jozef Hasto ◽  
Peter Tavel
Keyword(s):  
Convergent Validity ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Resilience Scale ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Mental Well Being ◽  
Best Fit

Objective In recent years, resilience has become a focus of research in the medical and behavioral sciences. The Brief Resilience Scale (BRS) was developed to assess the individual ability to recover from stress (“to bounce back”) after experiencing adversities. The aim of the study was to validate the Czech and Slovak versions of the BRS. Methods A representative sample of the Czech and Slovak populations (NCZ = 1800, mean age MCZ = 46.6, SDCZ = 17.4, 48.7% of men; NSK = 1018, mean age MSK = 46.2, SDSK = 16.6, 48.7% men) completed a survey assessing their health and well-being. Several confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models of the BRS were compared to find the best fit. Cronbach’s alpha and McDonald’s omega coefficients of reliability were evaluated. Convergent validity was assessed by correlating resilience (BRS), physical and mental well-being (SF-8) and psychopathology symptoms (BSI-53). Differences in gender and age groups were appraised. Results A single-factor model with method effects on the reverse items was evaluated to best fit the data in both the Czech and Slovak samples (χ2CZ(6) = 39.0, p < 0.001, CFICZ = 0.998, TLICZ = 0.995, RMSEACZ = 0.055, SRMRCZ = 0.024; χ2SK(6) = 23.9, p < 0.001, CFISK = 0.998, TLISK = 0.995, RMSEASK = 0.054, SRMRSK = 0.009). The reliability was high in both samples (αCZ = 0.80, ωCZ = 0.85; αSK = 0.86, ωSK = 0.91). The BRS was positively associated with physical and mental well-being and negatively associated with somatization, depression and anxiety. In both countries, a lower BRS score was associated with higher age. Czech men reported significantly higher BRS scores than women. No significant difference was found in the mean BRS scores between the two countries. Conclusion This study provides evidence of good psychometric properties, reliability and validity of the Czech and Slovak adaptations of the BRS.

scholarly journals Prognostic Value of Plasma hPG80 (Circulating Progastrin) in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 375
Author(s):  
Manish Kohli ◽  
Winston Tan ◽  
Bérengère Vire ◽  
Pierre Liaud ◽  
Mélina Blairvacq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Renal Cell ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Prognostic Impact ◽  
Significant Difference

Precise management of kidney cancer requires the identification of prognostic factors. hPG80 (circulating progastrin) is a tumor promoting peptide present in the blood of patients with various cancers, including renal cell carcinoma (RCC). In this study, we evaluated the prognostic value of plasma hPG80 in 143 prospectively collected patients with metastatic RCC (mRCC). The prognostic impact of hPG80 levels on overall survival (OS) in mRCC patients after controlling for hPG80 levels in non-cancer age matched controls was determined and compared to the International Metastatic Database Consortium (IMDC) risk model (good, intermediate, poor). ROC curves were used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of hPG80 using the area under the curve (AUC). Our results showed that plasma hPG80 was detected in 94% of mRCC patients. hPG80 levels displayed high predictive accuracy with an AUC of 0.93 and 0.84 when compared to 18–25 year old controls and 50–80 year old controls, respectively. mRCC patients with high hPG80 levels (>4.5 pM) had significantly lower OS compared to patients with low hPG80 levels (<4.5 pM) (12 versus 31.2 months, respectively; p = 0.0031). Adding hPG80 levels (score of 1 for patients having hPG80 levels > 4.5 pM) to the six variables of the IMDC risk model showed a greater and significant difference in OS between the newly defined good-, intermediate- and poor-risk groups (p = 0.0003 compared to p = 0.0076). Finally, when patients with IMDC intermediate-risk group were further divided into two groups based on hPG80 levels within these subgroups, increased OS were observed in patients with low hPG80 levels (<4.5 pM). In conclusion, our data suggest that hPG80 could be used for prognosticating survival in mRCC alone or integrated to the IMDC score (by adding a variable to the IMDC score or by substratifying the IMDC risk groups), be a prognostic biomarker in mRCC patients.

scholarly journals The Patient’s Denture Assessment (Thai version) is a valid and reliable tool for evaluating the outcome of treatment with complete denture

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahaprom Namano ◽  
Orapin Komin
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Outcome ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Treatment Success ◽  
Intraclass Correlation ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Complete Denture ◽  
Care Clinic ◽  
Geriatric Dentistry ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Denture Treatment

Abstract Background Complete tooth losses are still being major problems which resulted in lesser quality of life especially for elderly patients. However, there are still lack of questionnaire to evaluate the treatment outcome from the patient’s aspect. The objective of this study is to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Patient’s Denture Assessment-Thai version (PDA-T), then use this questionnaire to assess patient satisfaction with complete denture treatment outcome also investigates the factors involving their satisfaction. Methods The subjects comprised 120 edentulous adult patients (49 men/71 women; average age 70 years-old) from the Prosthodontic and the Geriatric Dentistry and Special Patients Care Clinic at the Faculty of Dentistry, Chulalongkorn University during 2019 March‒2020 March. The patients were divided into two groups: the group experienced (Exper) (n = 54) with wearing complete dentures, and the non-experienced (NonExper) group (n = 66). The patients used the validated PDA-T to self-assess their treatment at different times. The Exper group completed the questionnaire at t0 (during treatment), t0.5 (2‒8-weeks after t0), and t1 (final follow-up). The NonExper group completed the questionnaire only at t1. Results In the Exper group, Cronbach’s α and average inter-item correlation was 0.95 (range 0.76‒0.95) and 0.47 (range 0.57‒0.83), respectively. The intraclass correlation coefficients (n = 18, 95% confidence interval) were 0.98 overall. The paired t-test (p < 0.05) between t0 and t1 indicated a significant difference between t0 and t1 in every PDA-T topic, and the effect size was 1.71. In the NonExper group, the Pearson correlation analysis indicated no significant correlation between the patients' demographics and masticatory function. Conclusion The reliability and validity of the PDA-T indicate it is a valuable tool for evaluating complete denture treatment. Treatment success affected the patients' satisfaction but was not associated with the type of doctors, genders, ages, or educational level.

scholarly journals The 2012 US Presidential Election Polls And Stock Returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamir Levy ◽  
Joseph Yagil
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Election Poll ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
The Relationship

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-GB">This study investigates the relationship between daily US presidential election poll results and stock returns. The sample consists of the daily presidential election polls published in the New-York Times for the period between May 31 and November 5, 2012. They include the percentage of support for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. The findings indicate that stock returns are positively related to the poll results that support the candidate favored to win the election.</span></p>

scholarly journals The Degree To Which Primary School Teachers In Amman Governorate Possess Soft Skills In Light Of Coronavirus Pandemic From Their Principals' Perspectives

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1199-1212
Author(s):  
Dr. Fawaz Shehada , Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
Primary School ◽  
Soft Skills ◽  
School Teacher ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Primary School Teacher ◽  
School Teachers ◽  
Primary School Teachers ◽  
Female Principals ◽  
Significant Difference

The problem and the aim of the study: The rapid growth in technologies and the threat of COVID-19 pandemic have brought remarkable changes in the twenty-first century. Corona pandemic has caused a series of transformations in the different spheres of social, political, labor,  economic and educational life. Different governments have launched emergency policy initiatives based on the suspension of classes and the closure of educational centers to continue teaching activities from homes through the use of information and communication, which led to the emergence of new skills that the teacher should possess in order to keep pace with modern developments and to continue with the student learning process. The primary school teacher is required to develop his soft skills with quality and efficiency, to be in line with the great technological renaissance the world is witnessing in the field of teaching, knowledge and culture, and to realize that one of his new tasks is to be a guide, facilitator and assistant for students to learn by themselves. Accordingly, the study aimed at finding out the degree to which primary school teachers in Amman Governorate, possess soft skills in light of Coronavirus pandemic from the viewpoint of their principals. Research methods: The researcher reviewed the related literature to narrow the topic and aggregate the theoretical and empirical research related to the topic. The descriptive survey method was used in the study in addition to a 41- item questionnaire distinctly developed for gathering data. Reliability and validity of these items were checked by applying it to a pilot group of 30 principals selected randomly. (837) male and female principals from Amman governorate were selected as a study population. The sample of the study was (228) principals who were randomly selected, and constitutes (27%) of the study population.The results of the study were obtained through appropriate statistical analyses, then  analyzed and discussed according to the questions of the study. Results: The results showed that the degree to which primary school teachers' possess soft skills was high. The results also indicated that there is a statistically significant difference according to gender variable in favor of females, while there are no statistically significant differences attributed to experience variable and the interaction between gender and experience. Conclusion: the study pointed out that the importance of soft-skills for teachers has got more importance under COVID-19 pandemic crisis, as utilizing soft skills in teaching will improve the quality of educational results. There is a need to create awareness among the teachers about the importance of soft skills for career advancement and how to develop and practice such skills. schools should carefully review and incorporate the desired soft skills into their curricula. However, they should also continue running specialized training workshops to help teachers further improve their soft skills. It is equally important that teachers should also make efforts for improving their skills level through self-directed readings and participation in appropriate skills development programs and activities.

scholarly journals Reliability and validity of the Mizo-version of neck disability index for non-specific neck pain in the rural North-East Indian population

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 317
Author(s):  
Andrew Lalchhuanawma ◽  
Divya Sanghi
Keyword(s):  
Neck Pain ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Neck Disability Index ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
East Indian ◽  
North East ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Neck Disability

Background: The Neck Disability Index (NDI) is an important self-assessment tool used extensively worldwide, in clinical practice with implications into scientific research fields. It is used to assess the extent of pain and levels of functional disability associated with neck pain. The NDI consists of 10 items where each item was scored from a scale of 0 to 5 giving the maximum score possible to 50. Though proven to be a reliable instrument in the English-speaking population, the NDI has never been validated and culturally adapted in the Mizo language among the rural north-east Indian region where English is not spoken as means of communication. The aim is to translate and cross culturally adapt the NDI into Mizo tawng (official language of Mizoram) with the objective of establishing reliability and validity of the M-NDI in patients with non-specific neck pain.Methods: A total of 49 subjects participated voluntarily from the rural primary health care, Lunglei district, Mizoram. Subject having chronic non-specific neck pain lasting more than 3 months were included after taking a written formal consent.Results: The internal consistency determined by Cronbach alpha, and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) using the test-retest reliability showed a good and an excellent reliability respectively (α=0.82, ICC=0.97, 95% CI= 0.95-0.98). Construct validity was determined between the variables-Numerical Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) and NDI by Pearson’s correlation coefficient and found to have a good correlation r=0.89 and significant difference at p<0.001.Conclusions: The study results concluded the Mizo version of NDI to be easy to understand, reliable and valid instrument for measuring disability and functional limitations of daily activities in non-specific neck pain in the Mizo speaking population.

scholarly journals A biochemical profile of cardiac involvement in perinatal asphyxia

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Senthil Kumar P. ◽  
Durai Arasan G.
Keyword(s):  
Creatine Kinase ◽  
Cardiac Involvement ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Perinatal Asphyxia ◽  
P Value ◽  
Perinatal Hypoxia ◽  
Specific Enzyme ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Mean

Background: Perinatal hypoxia is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in developing countries like India, and even in developed countries. Perinatal hypoxia can result in Transient myocardial ischemia, tricuspid and mitral regurgitation, myocardial infarction, cardiac failure. The measurement of Creatine kinase -MB isoenzyme a cardiac specific enzyme helps in assessing the degree of myocardial involvement in asphyxiated infants.Methods: A Prospective case-control study was done in a Tertiary care centre serving rural areas predominantly, to determine the cardiac involvement by measuring serum MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase in perinatally asphyxiated inborn term babies for a period of six months.Results: There was a significant difference in the CK-MB values with regard to weight in both cases and controls. The mean CK-MB levels were higher in babies who had assisted delivery (forceps and breech) than those delivered by labour natural and LSCS. Mean CK-MB values of asphyxiated and controls were 133.8u/l and 27.12 u/l respectively with a p value of < 0.01. There was a significant difference between HIE1 and 3 with a p value of<0.02. Out of 60 cases 28 had abnormal ECG findings (46.6%). Statistically significant difference was found in the mean CK-MB between the normal and Grade4 ECG changes group. The overall predictive accuracy of CK-MB is high in Perinatal asphyxia (88%), Cardiac involvement (83%), Mortality (83%) and a moderate predictive accuracy for HIE (75%).Conclusions: Cardiac abnormalities in asphyxiated neonates are often underdiagnosed and requires high index of suspicion. Cardiac specific enzyme CK-MB helps in early recognition of myocardial damage and better management of cases, would reduce the neonatal mortality and morbidity. An expectant eye can be kept for complications in babies with markedly elevated CK-MB enzyme. 

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