scholarly journals Middle atmosphere response to different descriptions of the 11-yr solar cycle in spectral irradiance in a chemistry-climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5937-5948 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. H. Swartz ◽  
R. S. Stolarski ◽  
L. D. Oman ◽  
E. L. Fleming ◽  
C. H. Jackman
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Spectral Response ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Spectral Irradiance ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Naval Research

Abstract. The 11-yr solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOSCCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3–6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units F10.7 – 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOSCCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. This is important in that it means that chemistry-transport models should simulate the solar cycle in ozone well, while general circulation models without coupled chemistry will underestimate the temperature response to the solar cycle significantly in the middle atmosphere. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.

scholarly journals Middle atmosphere response to different descriptions of the 11-yr solar cycle in spectral irradiance in a chemistry-climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 7039-7071 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. H. Swartz ◽  
R. S. Stolarski ◽  
L. D. Oman ◽  
E. L. Fleming ◽  
C. H. Jackman
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Spectral Response ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Spectral Irradiance ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Solar Cycles

Abstract. The 11-yr solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3–6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units F10.7 – 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOS CCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.

scholarly journals The HAMMONIA Chemistry Climate Model: Sensitivity of the Mesopause Region to the 11-Year Solar Cycle and CO2 Doubling

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3903-3931 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Schmidt ◽  
G. P. Brasseur ◽  
M. Charron ◽  
E. Manzini ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Dynamical Processes ◽  
Mesopause Region ◽  
Height Range

Abstract This paper introduces the three-dimensional Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), which treats atmospheric dynamics, radiation, and chemistry interactively for the height range from the earth’s surface to the thermosphere (approximately 250 km). It is based on the latest version of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, which is extended to include important radiative and dynamical processes of the upper atmosphere and is coupled to a chemistry module containing 48 compounds. The model is applied to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on the atmosphere, represented, on the one hand, by the 11-yr solar cycle and, on the other hand, by a doubling of the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide. The numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region. Results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 K in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. Ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. Changes in winds are in general small. In the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. It is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. During Northern Hemisphere summer, dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 K in the uppermost mesosphere.

scholarly journals Towards a better representation of the solar cycle in general circulation models

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (20) ◽  
pp. 5391-5400 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Nissen ◽  
K. Matthes ◽  
U. Langematz ◽  
B. Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Heating Rate ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Radiation Scheme

Abstract. We introduce the improved Freie Universität Berlin (FUB) high-resolution radiation scheme FUBRad and compare it to the 4-band standard ECHAM5 SW radiation scheme of Fouquart and Bonnel (FB). Both schemes are validated against the detailed radiative transfer model libRadtran. FUBRad produces realistic heating rate variations during the solar cycle. The SW heating rate response with the FB scheme is about 20 times smaller than with FUBRad and cannot produce the observed temperature signal. A reduction of the spectral resolution to 6 bands for solar irradiance and ozone absorption cross sections leads to a degradation (reduction) of the solar SW heating rate signal by about 20%. The simulated temperature response agrees qualitatively well with observations in the summer upper stratosphere and mesosphere where irradiance variations dominate the signal. Comparison of the total short-wave heating rates under solar minimum conditions shows good agreement between FUBRad, FB and libRadtran up to the middle mesosphere (60–70 km) indicating that both parameterizations are well suited for climate integrations that do not take solar variability into account. The FUBRad scheme has been implemented as a sub-submodel of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy).

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the tropical stratospheric ozone response to the solar rotational cycle in observations and chemistry-climate model simulations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Marion Marchand ◽  
Slimane Bekki ◽  
Sébastien Bossay ◽  
Franck Lefèvre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Spectral Irradiance ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Solar Spectral Irradiance ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Ozone Sensitivity ◽  
Ensemble Mean

Abstract. The tropical stratospheric ozone response to solar UV variations associated with the rotational cycle (~ 27 days) is analysed using MLS satellite observations and numerical simulations from the LMDz-Reprobus chemistry-climate model. The model is used in two configurations, as a chemistry-transport model (CTM) where dynamics are nudged toward ERA-Interim reanalysis and as a chemistry-climate model (free-running) (CCM). An ensemble of five 17 year simulations (1991–2007) is performed with the CCM. All simulations are forced by reconstructed time-varying solar spectral irradiance from the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance model. We first examine the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle during two 3 year periods which correspond to the declining phases of solar cycle 22 (10/1991–09/1994) and solar cycle 23 (09/200408/2007) when the satellite ozone observations of the two Microwave Limb Sounders (MLS-UARS and MLS-Aura) are available. In the observations, during the first period, ozone and UV flux are found to be correlated between about 10 and 1 hPa with a maximum of 0.29 at ~ 5 hPa; the ozone sensitivity (% change in ozone for 1 % change in UV) peaks at ~ 0.4. Correlation during the second period is weaker and has a peak ozone sensitivity of only 0.2, possibly due to the fact that the solar forcing is weaker during that period. The CTM simulation reproduces most of these observed features, including the differences between the two periods. The CCM ensemble mean results comparatively show much smaller differences between the two periods, suggesting that the amplitude of the rotational ozone signal estimated from MLS observations or the CTM simulation is strongly influenced by other (non-solar) sources of variability, notably dynamics. The analysis of the ensemble of CCM simulations shows that the estimation of the ensemble mean ozone sensitivity does not vary significantly neither with the amplitude of the solar rotational fluctuations, nor with the size of the time window used for the ozone sensitivity retrieval. In contrast, the uncertainty of the ozone sensitivity estimate significantly increases during periods of decreasing amplitude of solar rotational fluctuations (also coinciding with minimum phases of the solar cycle), and for decreasing size of the time window analysis. We found that a minimum of 3 year and 10 year time window is needed for the 1σ uncertainty to drop below 50 % and 20 %, respectively. These uncertainty sources may explain some of the discrepancies found in previous estimates of the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle.

scholarly journals Net effect of the QBO in a chemistry climate model

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (21) ◽  
pp. 6505-6525 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. Punge ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Vortex Formation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind is a prominent mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere. It affects not only the meridional circulation and temperature over a wide latitude range but also the transport and chemistry of trace gases such as ozone. Compared to a QBO less circulation, the long-term climatological means of these quantities are also different. These climatological net effects of the QBO can be studied in general circulation models that extend into the middle atmosphere and have a chemistry and transport component, so-called Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs). In this work we show that the CCM MAECHAM4-CHEM can reproduce the observed QBO variations in temperature and ozone mole fractions when nudged towards observed winds. In particular, it is shown that the QBO signal in transport of nitrogen oxides NOx plays an important role in reproducing the observed ozone QBO, which features a phase reversal slightly below the level of maximum of the ozone mole fraction in the tropics. We then compare two 20-year experiments with the MAECHAM4-CHEM model that differ by including or not including the QBO. The mean wind fields differ between the two model runs, especially during summer and fall seasons in both hemispheres. The differences in the wind field lead to differences in the meridional circulation, by the same mechanism that causes the QBO's secondary meridional circulation, and thereby affect mean temperatures and the mean transport of tracers. In the tropics, the net effect on ozone is mostly due to net differences in upwelling and, higher up, the associated temperature change. We show that a net surplus of up to 15% in NOx in the tropics above 10 hPa in the experiment that includes the QBO does not lead to significantly different volume mixing ratios of ozone. We also note a slight increase in the southern vortex strength as well as earlier vortex formation in northern winter. Polar temperatures differ accordingly. Differences in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and in further trace gas concentrations are analysed. Our findings underline the importance of a representation of the QBO in CCMs.

scholarly journals Net effect of the QBO in a chemistry climate model

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 12115-12162 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. Punge ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Vortex Formation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind is a prominent mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere. It affects not only the meridional circulation and temperature over a wide latitude range but also the transport and chemistry of trace gases such as ozone. Compared to a QBO less circulation, the long-term climatological means of these quantities are also different. These climatological net effects of the QBO can be studied in general circulation models that extend into the middle atmosphere and have a chemistry and transport component, so-called Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs). In this work we show that the CCM MAECHAM4-CHEM can reproduce the observed QBO variations in temperature and ozone mole fractions when nudged towards observed winds. In particular, it is shown that the QBO signal in transport of nitrogen oxides NOx plays an important role in reproducing the observed ozone QBO, which features a phase reversal slightly below the maximum of the ozone mole fraction in the tropics. We then compare two 20-year experiments with the MAECHAM4-CHEM model that differ by including or not including the QBO. The mean wind fields differ between the two model runs, especially during summer and fall on both hemispheres. The differences in the wind field lead to differences in the meridional circulation, by the same mechanism that causes the QBO's secondary meridional circulation, and thereby affecting mean temperatures and the mean transport of tracers. In the tropics, the net effect on ozone is mostly due to net differences in upwelling and, higher up, the associated temperature change. We show that a net surplus of up to 15% in NOx in the tropics above 10 hPa in the experiment that includes the QBO does not lead to significantly different volume mixing ratios of ozone. We also note a slight increase in the southern vortex strength as well as earlier vortex formation in northern winter. Polar temperatures differ accordingly. Differences in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and in further trace gas concentrations are analysed. Our findings underline the importance of a representation of the QBO in CCMs.

Global surface temperature response to 11-year solar cycle forcing consistent with general circulation model results

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
T. Amdur ◽  
A.R. Stine ◽  
P. Huybers
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Solar Variability ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Surface ◽  
Best Estimates

AbstractThe 11-year solar cycle is associated with a roughly 1Wm-2 trough-to-peak variation in total solar irradiance and is expected to produce a global temperature response. The sensitivity of this response is, however, contentious. Empirical best estimates of global surface temperature sensitivity to solar forcing range from 0.08 to 0.18 K [W m-2 ]-1. In comparison, best estimates from general circulation models forced by solar variability range between 0.03-0.07 K [W m-2]-1, prompting speculation that physical mechanisms not included in general circulation models may amplify responses to solar variability. Using a lagged multiple linear regression method, we find a sensitivity of globalaverage surface temperature ranging between 0.02-0.09 K [W m-2]-1, depending on which predictor and temperature datasets are used. On the basis of likelihood maximization, we give a best estimate of the sensitivity to solar variability of 0.05 K [W m-2]-1 (0.03-0.09 K, 95% c.i.). Furthermore, through updating a widely-used compositing approach to incorporate recent observations, we revise prior global temperature sensitivity best estimates of 0.12 to 0.18 K [W m-2]-1 downwards to 0.07 to 0.10 K [W m-2]-1. The finding of a most-likely global temperature response of 0.05 K [W m-2]-1 supports a relatively modest role for solar cycle variability in driving global surface temperature variations over the 20th century and removes the need to invoke processes that amplify the response relative to that exhibited in general circulation models.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the tropical stratospheric ozone response to the solar rotational cycle in observations and chemistry–climate model simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 9897-9916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Marion Marchand ◽  
Slimane Bekki ◽  
Sébastien Bossay ◽  
Franck Lefèvre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Spectral Irradiance ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Solar Spectral Irradiance ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Ozone Sensitivity ◽  
Ensemble Mean

Abstract. The tropical stratospheric ozone response to solar UV variations associated with the rotational cycle (∼ 27 days) is analyzed using MLS satellite observations and numerical simulations from the LMDz-Reprobus chemistry–climate model. The model is used in two configurations, as a chemistry-transport model (CTM) where dynamics are nudged toward ERA-Interim reanalysis and as a chemistry–climate model (free-running) (CCM). An ensemble of five 17-year simulations (1991–2007) is performed with the CCM. All simulations are forced by reconstructed time-varying solar spectral irradiance from the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance model. We first examine the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle during two 3-year periods which correspond to the declining phases of solar cycle 22 (October 1991–September 1994) and solar cycle 23 (September 2004–August 2007), when the satellite ozone observations of the two Microwave Limb Sounders (UARS MLS and Aura MLS) are available. In the observations, during the first period, ozone and UV flux are found to be correlated between about 10 and 1 hPa with a maximum of 0.29 at ∼ 5 hPa; the ozone sensitivity (% change in ozone for 1 % change in UV) peaks at ∼ 0.4. Correlation during the second period is weaker and has a peak ozone sensitivity of only 0.2, possibly due to the fact that the solar forcing is weaker during that period. The CTM simulation reproduces most of these observed features, including the differences between the two periods. The CCM ensemble mean results comparatively show much smaller differences between the two periods, suggesting that the amplitude of the rotational ozone signal estimated from MLS observations or the CTM simulation is strongly influenced by other (non-solar) sources of variability, notably dynamics. The analysis of the ensemble of CCM simulations shows that the estimation of the ensemble mean ozone sensitivity does not vary significantly either with the amplitude of the solar rotational fluctuations or with the size of the time window used for the ozone sensitivity retrieval. In contrast, the uncertainty of the ozone sensitivity estimate significantly increases during periods of decreasing amplitude of solar rotational fluctuations (also coinciding with minimum phases of the solar cycle), and for decreasing size of the time window analysis. We found that a minimum of 3- and 10-year time window is needed for the 1σ uncertainty to drop below 50 and 20 %, respectively. These uncertainty sources may explain some of the discrepancies found in previous estimates of the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle.

Filtering of Milankovitch Cycles by Earth's Geography

1991 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Short ◽  
John G. Mengel ◽  
Thomas J. Crowley ◽  
William T. Hyde ◽  
Gerald R. North
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
Milankovitch Cycles ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Orbital Forcing ◽  
Model Response

AbstractEarth's land-sea distribution modifies the temperature response to orbitally induced perturbations of the seasonal insolation. We examine this modification in the frequency domain by generating 800,000-yr time series of maximum summer temperature in selected regions with a linear, two-dimensional, seasonal energy balance climate model. Previous studies have demonstrated that this model has a sensitivity comparable to general circulation models for the seasonal temperature response to orbital forcing on land. Although the observed response in the geologic record is sometimes significantly different than modeled here (differences attributable to model limitations and feedbacks involving the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system), there are several results of significance: (1) in mid-latitude land areas the orbital signal is translated linearly into a large (>10°C) seasonal temperature response; (2) although the modeled seasonal response to orbital forcing on Antarctica is 6°C, the annual mean temperature effect (<2°C) is only about one-fifth that inferred from the Vostok ice core, and primarily restricted to periods near 41,000 yr; (3) equatorial regions have the richest spectrum of temperature response, with a 3000-yr phase shift in the precession response, plus some power near periods of 10,000–12,000 yr, 41,000 yr, 100,000 yr, and 400,000 yr. Peaks at 10,000–12,000 yr and 100,000 and 400,000 yr result from the twice-yearly passage of the sun across the equator. The complex model response in equatorial regions has some resemblance to geologic time series from this region. The amplification of model response over equatorial land masses at the 100,000-yr period may explain some of the observed large variance in this band in geologic records, especially in pre-Pleistocene records from times of little or no global ice volume.

scholarly journals The relevance of mid-Holocene Arctic warming to the future

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1375-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Marina Suzuki
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cross Model ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Arctic Climate Change

Abstract. There remain substantial uncertainties in future projections of Arctic climate change. There is a potential to constrain these uncertainties using a combination of paleoclimate simulations and proxy data, but such a constraint must be accompanied by physical understanding on the connection between past and future simulations. Here, we examine the relevance of an Arctic warming mechanism in the mid-Holocene (MH) to the future with emphasis on process understanding. We conducted a surface energy balance analysis on 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models under the MH and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario forcings. It is found that many of the dominant processes that amplify Arctic warming over the ocean from late autumn to early winter are common between the two periods, despite the difference in the source of the forcing (insolation vs. greenhouse gases). The positive albedo feedback in summer results in an increase in oceanic heat release in the colder season when the atmospheric stratification is strong, and an increased greenhouse effect from clouds helps amplify the warming during the season with small insolation. The seasonal progress was elucidated by the decomposition of the factors associated with sea surface temperature, ice concentration, and ice surface temperature changes. We also quantified the contribution of individual components to the inter-model variance in the surface temperature changes. The downward clear-sky longwave radiation is one of major contributors to the model spread throughout the year. Other controlling terms for the model spread vary with the season, but they are similar between the MH and the future in each season. This result suggests that the MH Arctic change may not be analogous to the future in some seasons when the temperature response differs, but it is still useful to constrain the model spread in the future Arctic projection. The cross-model correlation suggests that the feedbacks in preceding seasons should not be overlooked when determining constraints, particularly summer sea ice cover for the constraint of autumn–winter surface temperature response.

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