Filtering of Milankovitch Cycles by Earth's Geography

1991 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Short ◽  
John G. Mengel ◽  
Thomas J. Crowley ◽  
William T. Hyde ◽  
Gerald R. North

AbstractEarth's land-sea distribution modifies the temperature response to orbitally induced perturbations of the seasonal insolation. We examine this modification in the frequency domain by generating 800,000-yr time series of maximum summer temperature in selected regions with a linear, two-dimensional, seasonal energy balance climate model. Previous studies have demonstrated that this model has a sensitivity comparable to general circulation models for the seasonal temperature response to orbital forcing on land. Although the observed response in the geologic record is sometimes significantly different than modeled here (differences attributable to model limitations and feedbacks involving the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system), there are several results of significance: (1) in mid-latitude land areas the orbital signal is translated linearly into a large (>10°C) seasonal temperature response; (2) although the modeled seasonal response to orbital forcing on Antarctica is 6°C, the annual mean temperature effect (<2°C) is only about one-fifth that inferred from the Vostok ice core, and primarily restricted to periods near 41,000 yr; (3) equatorial regions have the richest spectrum of temperature response, with a 3000-yr phase shift in the precession response, plus some power near periods of 10,000–12,000 yr, 41,000 yr, 100,000 yr, and 400,000 yr. Peaks at 10,000–12,000 yr and 100,000 and 400,000 yr result from the twice-yearly passage of the sun across the equator. The complex model response in equatorial regions has some resemblance to geologic time series from this region. The amplification of model response over equatorial land masses at the 100,000-yr period may explain some of the observed large variance in this band in geologic records, especially in pre-Pleistocene records from times of little or no global ice volume.

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-200
Author(s):  
K. Haberkorn ◽  
C. Lemmen ◽  
R. Blender ◽  
K. Fraedrich

Abstract. Sea surface temperature (SST) is the main driver of simulated climate in coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. A reliable reconstruction of past SST is necessary to simulate past climate realistically. We here present a novel method for reconstructing SST on the basis of terrestrial Holocene palaeothermometer data such that a climate model is able to represent the climate mean state in the land temperature time series. For our study, we use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity Planet Simulator (PlaSim). The land climate is represented by the high-resolution and long-term palaeothermometer time series from Lake Ammersee (Southern Germany), where the temperature is derived from the stable δ18O isotope in ostracod valves. To provide a climate simulation which reflects the proxy-derived climate during the Holocene, we (i) determine the sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate with respect to SST anomalies for present day conditions; (ii) define the inverse of these sensitivities to find the SST conditions necessary for representing past land proxy climate; and (iii) reapply the climate model to this newly reconstructed SST. We iterate over steps (ii) and (iii) until the mean model and proxy climate converge. We demonstrate the applicability of this new method to reconstruct past climate by comparing the simulated land temperatures to an independent (pollen derived) proxy data set of land temperatures for Europe. The implementation of a wider range of terrestrial palaeotemperature information from proxy archives analogous to our method will foreseeably yield better reconstructions of past SST. These can, for example, be used to overcome many models' difficulties with simulations extending to the time before 8500 yr before present, when the North American (Laurentide) ice sheet caused a no-analogue climate.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5937-5948 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. H. Swartz ◽  
R. S. Stolarski ◽  
L. D. Oman ◽  
E. L. Fleming ◽  
C. H. Jackman

Abstract. The 11-yr solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation &amp; Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOSCCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3–6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units F10.7 – 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOSCCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. This is important in that it means that chemistry-transport models should simulate the solar cycle in ozone well, while general circulation models without coupled chemistry will underestimate the temperature response to the solar cycle significantly in the middle atmosphere. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.


2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Forrest M. Hoffman ◽  
William W. Hargrove ◽  
David J. Erickson ◽  
Robert J. Oglesby

Abstract Changes in Earth’s climate in response to atmospheric greenhouse gas buildup impact the health of terrestrial ecosystems and the hydrologic cycle. The environmental conditions influential to plant and animal life are often mapped as ecoregions, which are land areas having similar combinations of environmental characteristics. This idea is extended to establish regions of similarity with respect to climatic characteristics that evolve through time using a quantitative statistical clustering technique called Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC). MSTC was applied to the monthly time series output from a fully coupled general circulation model (GCM) called the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Results from an ensemble of five 99-yr Business-As-Usual (BAU) transient simulations from 2000 to 2098 were analyzed. MSTC establishes an exhaustive set of recurring climate regimes that form a “skeleton” through the “observations” (model output) throughout the occupied portion of the climate phase space formed by the characteristics being considered. MSTC facilitates direct comparison of ensemble members and ensemble and temporal averages since the derived climate regimes provide a basis for comparison. Moreover, by mapping all land cells to discrete climate states, the dynamic behavior of any part of the system can be studied by its time-varying sequence of climate state occupancy. MSTC is a powerful tool for model developers and environmental decision makers who wish to understand long, complex time series predictions of models. Strong predicted interannual trends were revealed in this analysis, including an increase in global desertification; a decrease in the cold, dry high-latitude conditions typical of North American and Asian winters; and significant warming in Antarctica and western Greenland.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1375-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Marina Suzuki

Abstract. There remain substantial uncertainties in future projections of Arctic climate change. There is a potential to constrain these uncertainties using a combination of paleoclimate simulations and proxy data, but such a constraint must be accompanied by physical understanding on the connection between past and future simulations. Here, we examine the relevance of an Arctic warming mechanism in the mid-Holocene (MH) to the future with emphasis on process understanding. We conducted a surface energy balance analysis on 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models under the MH and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario forcings. It is found that many of the dominant processes that amplify Arctic warming over the ocean from late autumn to early winter are common between the two periods, despite the difference in the source of the forcing (insolation vs. greenhouse gases). The positive albedo feedback in summer results in an increase in oceanic heat release in the colder season when the atmospheric stratification is strong, and an increased greenhouse effect from clouds helps amplify the warming during the season with small insolation. The seasonal progress was elucidated by the decomposition of the factors associated with sea surface temperature, ice concentration, and ice surface temperature changes. We also quantified the contribution of individual components to the inter-model variance in the surface temperature changes. The downward clear-sky longwave radiation is one of major contributors to the model spread throughout the year. Other controlling terms for the model spread vary with the season, but they are similar between the MH and the future in each season. This result suggests that the MH Arctic change may not be analogous to the future in some seasons when the temperature response differs, but it is still useful to constrain the model spread in the future Arctic projection. The cross-model correlation suggests that the feedbacks in preceding seasons should not be overlooked when determining constraints, particularly summer sea ice cover for the constraint of autumn–winter surface temperature response.


Radiocarbon ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 43 (2B) ◽  
pp. 843-855 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M Kalish ◽  
Reidar Nydal ◽  
Kjell H Nedreaas ◽  
George S Burr ◽  
Gro L Eine

Radiocarbon measured in seawater dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) can be used to investigate ocean circulation, atmosphere/ocean carbon flux, and provide powerful constraints for the fine-tuning of general circulation models (GCMs). Time series of 14C in seawater are derived most frequently from annual bands of hermatypic corals. However, this proxy is unavailable in temperate and polar oceans. Fish otoliths, calcium carbonate auditory, and gravity receptors in the membranous labyrinths of teleost fishes, can act as proxies for 14C in most oceans and at most depths. Arcto-Norwegian cod otoliths are suited to this application due to the well-defined distribution of this species in the Barents Sea, the ability to determine ages of individual Arcto-Norwegian cod with a high level of accuracy, and the availability of archived otoliths collected for fisheries research over the past 60 years. Using measurements of 14C derived from Arcto-Norwegian cod otoliths, we present the first pre- and post-bomb time series (1919–1992) of 14C from polar seas and consider the significance of these data in relation to ocean circulation and atmosphere/ocean flux of 14C. The data provide evidence for a minor Suess effect of only 0.2‰ per year between 1919 and 1950. Bomb 14C was evident in the Barents Sea as early as 1957 and the highest 14C value was measured in an otolith core from a cod with a birth date of 1967. The otolith 14C data display key features common to records of 14C obtained from a Georges Bank mollusc and corals from the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3903-3931 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Schmidt ◽  
G. P. Brasseur ◽  
M. Charron ◽  
E. Manzini ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  

Abstract This paper introduces the three-dimensional Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), which treats atmospheric dynamics, radiation, and chemistry interactively for the height range from the earth’s surface to the thermosphere (approximately 250 km). It is based on the latest version of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, which is extended to include important radiative and dynamical processes of the upper atmosphere and is coupled to a chemistry module containing 48 compounds. The model is applied to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on the atmosphere, represented, on the one hand, by the 11-yr solar cycle and, on the other hand, by a doubling of the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide. The numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region. Results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 K in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. Ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. Changes in winds are in general small. In the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. It is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. During Northern Hemisphere summer, dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 K in the uppermost mesosphere.


2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (20) ◽  
pp. 5391-5400 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Nissen ◽  
K. Matthes ◽  
U. Langematz ◽  
B. Mayer

Abstract. We introduce the improved Freie Universität Berlin (FUB) high-resolution radiation scheme FUBRad and compare it to the 4-band standard ECHAM5 SW radiation scheme of Fouquart and Bonnel (FB). Both schemes are validated against the detailed radiative transfer model libRadtran. FUBRad produces realistic heating rate variations during the solar cycle. The SW heating rate response with the FB scheme is about 20 times smaller than with FUBRad and cannot produce the observed temperature signal. A reduction of the spectral resolution to 6 bands for solar irradiance and ozone absorption cross sections leads to a degradation (reduction) of the solar SW heating rate signal by about 20%. The simulated temperature response agrees qualitatively well with observations in the summer upper stratosphere and mesosphere where irradiance variations dominate the signal. Comparison of the total short-wave heating rates under solar minimum conditions shows good agreement between FUBRad, FB and libRadtran up to the middle mesosphere (60–70 km) indicating that both parameterizations are well suited for climate integrations that do not take solar variability into account. The FUBRad scheme has been implemented as a sub-submodel of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy).


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Ales Kuchar ◽  
Dimitry Pokhotelov ◽  
Huixin Liu ◽  
Han-Li Liu ◽  
...  

Abstract. Long-term and continuous observations of mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds are rare, but they are important to investigate climatological changes at these altitudes on time scales of several years, covering a solar cycle and longer. Such long time series are a natural heritage of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere climate, and they are valuable to compare climate models or long term runs of general circulation models (GCMs). Here we present a climatological comparison of wind observations from six meteor radars at two conjugate latitudes to validate the corresponding mean winds and atmospheric diurnal and semidiurnal tides from three GCMs, namely Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extension (Specified Dynamics) (WACCM-X(SD)) and Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model. Our results indicate that there are interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristics of the diurnal and semidiurnal tide. There also are some differences in the mean wind climatologies of the models and the observations. Our results indicate that GAIA shows a reasonable agreement with the meteor radar observations during the winter season, whereas WACCM-X(SD) shows a better agreement with the radars for the hemispheric zonal summer wind reversal, which is more consistent with the meteor radar observations. The free running UA-ICON tends to show similar winds and tides compared to WACCM-X(SD).


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (24) ◽  
pp. 9197-9213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Horn ◽  
Kevin Walsh ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
...  

Abstract Future tropical cyclone activity is a topic of great scientific and societal interest. In the absence of a climate theory of tropical cyclogenesis, general circulation models are the primary tool available for investigating the issue. However, the identification of tropical cyclones in model data at moderate resolution is complex, and numerous schemes have been developed for their detection. The influence of different tracking schemes on detected tropical cyclone activity and responses in the Hurricane Working Group experiments is examined herein. These are idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments aimed at determining and distinguishing the effects of increased sea surface temperature and other increased CO2 effects on tropical cyclone activity. Two tracking schemes are applied to these data and the tracks provided by each modeling group are analyzed. The results herein indicate moderate agreement between the different tracking methods, with some models and experiments showing better agreement across schemes than others. When comparing responses between experiments, it is found that much of the disagreement between schemes is due to differences in duration, wind speed, and formation-latitude thresholds. After homogenization in these thresholds, agreement between different tracking methods is improved. However, much disagreement remains, accountable for by more fundamental differences between the tracking schemes. The results indicate that sensitivity testing and selection of objective thresholds are the key factors in obtaining meaningful, reproducible results when tracking tropical cyclones in climate model data at these resolutions, but that more fundamental differences between tracking methods can also have a significant impact on the responses in activity detected.


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