scholarly journals Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 5887-5902 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. E. Revell ◽  
F. Tummon ◽  
A. Stenke ◽  
T. Sukhodolov ◽  
A. Coulon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
Lightning Nox ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry–climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century, with an 11 % increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NOx emissions also increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are relatively small. Overall, the results show that under this climate scenario, ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and NOx; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. Climate impacts on ozone through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NOx remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic emissions of NOx, such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.

scholarly journals Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 481-519
Author(s):  
L. E. Revell ◽  
F. Tummon ◽  
A. Stenke ◽  
T. Sukhodolov ◽  
A. Coulon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
Lightning Nox ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Because tropospheric ozone is both a~greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a~simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0. Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximises in the early 21st century at 23%. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70 year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally-averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the longevity of ozone in the troposphere. A~simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6 % increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone, and an 11% increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximises in the 2080s, and is mostly caused by methane, which maximises in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NOx emissions also increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are relatively small. Overall, the results show that ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and NOx; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. Climate impacts on ozone through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NOx remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic emissions of NOx, such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.

scholarly journals Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 2727-2746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Alexander T. Archibald ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Paul Telford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Chemical Production ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. A stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Met Office's Unified Model (UM) with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) scheme is used to investigate the atmospheric response to changes in (a) greenhouse gases and climate, (b) ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and (c) non-methane ozone precursor emissions. A suite of time-slice experiments show the separate, as well as pairwise, impacts of these perturbations between the years 2000 and 2100. Sensitivity to uncertainties in future greenhouse gases and aerosols is explored through the use of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The results highlight an important role for the stratosphere in determining the annual mean tropospheric ozone response, primarily through stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. Under both climate change and reductions in ODSs, increases in STE offset decreases in net chemical production and act to increase the tropospheric ozone burden. This opposes the effects of projected decreases in ozone precursors through measures to improve air quality, which act to reduce the ozone burden. The global tropospheric lifetime of ozone (τO3) does not change significantly under climate change at RCP4.5, but it decreases at RCP8.5. This opposes the increases in τO3 simulated under reductions in ODSs and ozone precursor emissions. The additivity of the changes in ozone is examined by comparing the sum of the responses in the single-forcing experiments to those from equivalent combined-forcing experiments. Whilst the ozone responses to most forcing combinations are found to be approximately additive, non-additive changes are found in both the stratosphere and troposphere when a large climate forcing (RCP8.5) is combined with the effects of ODSs.

scholarly journals Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 19-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex G. Libardoni ◽  
Chris E. Forest ◽  
Andrei P. Sokolov ◽  
Erwan Monier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Historical time series of surface temperature and ocean heat content changes are commonly used metrics to diagnose climate change and estimate properties of the climate system. We show that recent trends, namely the slowing of surface temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century and the acceleration of heat stored in the deep ocean, have a substantial impact on these estimates. Using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM), we vary three model parameters that influence the behavior of the climate system: effective climate sensitivity (ECS), the effective ocean diffusivity of heat anomalies by all mixing processes (Kv), and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing scaling factor. Each model run is compared to observed changes in decadal mean surface temperature anomalies and the trend in global mean ocean heat content change to derive a joint probability distribution function for the model parameters. Marginal distributions for individual parameters are found by integrating over the other two parameters. To investigate how the inclusion of recent temperature changes affects our estimates, we systematically include additional data by choosing periods that end in 1990, 2000, and 2010. We find that estimates of ECS increase in response to rising global surface temperatures when data beyond 1990 are included, but due to the slowdown of surface temperature rise in the early 21st century, estimates when using data up to 2000 are greater than when data up to 2010 are used. We also show that estimates of Kv increase in response to the acceleration of heat stored in the ocean as data beyond 1990 are included. Further, we highlight how including spatial patterns of surface temperature change modifies the estimates. We show that including latitudinal structure in the climate change signal impacts properties with spatial dependence, namely the aerosol forcing pattern, more than properties defined for the global mean, climate sensitivity, and ocean diffusivity.

scholarly journals The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6083-6089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Xu ◽  
D. Zaelke ◽  
G. J. M. Velders ◽  
V. Ramanathan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Global Warming Potential ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Carbon Aerosols

Abstract. There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4), black carbon aerosols (BC), tropospheric ozone (O3) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential) HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

scholarly journals Radiative forcing since preindustrial times due to ozone change in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 575-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gauss ◽  
G. Myhre ◽  
I. S. A. Isaksen ◽  
V. Grewe ◽  
G. Pitari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Stratospheric Chemistry ◽  
Ozone Column ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Changes in atmospheric ozone have occurred since the preindustrial era as a result of increasing anthropogenic emissions. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, ozone changes between 1850 and 2000 are assessed for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (up to 30 km) by a variety of seven chemistry-climate models and three chemical transport models. The modeled ozone changes are taken as input for detailed calculations of radiative forcing. When only changes in chemistry are considered (constant climate) the modeled global-mean tropospheric ozone column increase since preindustrial times ranges from 7.9 DU to 13.8 DU among the ten participating models, while the stratospheric column reduction lies between 14.1 DU and 28.6 DU in the models considering stratospheric chemistry. The resulting radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the location and altitude of the modeled ozone change and varies between 0.25 Wm−2 and 0.45 Wm−2 due to ozone change in the troposphere and −0.123 Wm−2 and +0.066 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric ozone change. Changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases since preindustrial times have altered climate. Six out of the ten participating models have performed an additional calculation taking into account both chemical and climate change. In most models the isolated effect of climate change is an enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column increase, while the stratospheric reduction becomes slightly less severe. In the three climate-chemistry models with detailed tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry the inclusion of climate change increases the resulting radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone change by up to 0.10 Wm−2, while the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone change is reduced by up to 0.034 Wm−2. Considering tropospheric and stratospheric change combined, the total ozone column change is negative while the resulting net radiative forcing is positive.

scholarly journals Influence of future climate and cropland expansion on isoprene emissions and tropospheric ozone

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 1011-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. J. Squire ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
N. L. Abraham ◽  
D. J. Beerling ◽  
C. N. Hewitt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Over the 21st century, changes in CO2 levels, climate and land use are expected to alter the global distribution of vegetation, leading to changes in trace gas emissions from plants, including, importantly, the emissions of isoprene. This, combined with changes in anthropogenic emissions, has the potential to impact tropospheric ozone levels, which above a certain level are harmful to animals and vegetation. In this study we use a biogenic emissions model following the empirical parameterisation of the MEGAN model, with vegetation distributions calculated by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) to explore a range of potential future (2095) changes in isoprene emissions caused by changes in climate (including natural land use changes), land use, and the inhibition of isoprene emissions by CO2. From the present-day (2000) value of 467 Tg C yr−1, we find that the combined impact of these factors could cause a net decrease in isoprene emissions of 259 Tg C yr−1 (55%) with individual contributions of +78 Tg C yr−1 (climate change), −190 Tg C yr−1 (land use) and −147 Tg C yr−1 (CO2 inhibition). Using these isoprene emissions and changes in anthropogenic emissions, a series of integrations is conducted with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model with the aim of examining changes in ozone over the 21st century. Globally, all combined future changes cause a decrease in the tropospheric ozone burden of 27 Tg (7%) from 379 Tg in the present-day. At the surface, decreases in ozone of 6–10 ppb are calculated over the oceans and developed northern hemispheric regions, due to reduced NOx transport by PAN and reductions in NOx emissions in these areas respectively. Increases of 4–6 ppb are calculated in the continental tropics due to cropland expansion in these regions, increased CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions, and higher temperatures due to climate change. These effects outweigh the decreases in tropical ozone caused by increased tropical isoprene emissions with climate change. Our land use change scenario consists of cropland expansion, which is most pronounced in the tropics. The tropics are also where land use change causes the greatest increases in ozone. As such there is potential for increased crop exposure to harmful levels of ozone. However, we find that these ozone increases are still not large enough to raise ozone to such damaging levels.

scholarly journals What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

2015 ◽  
Vol 373 (2054) ◽  
pp. 20140426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan Sutton ◽  
Emma Suckling ◽  
Ed Hawkins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Forced Responses ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Global Mean

The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

scholarly journals Permafrost Degradation within Eastern Chukotka CALM Sites in the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Maslakov ◽  
Natalia Shabanova ◽  
Dmitry Zamolodchikov ◽  
Vasili Volobuev ◽  
Gleb Kraev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Layer Thickness ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Degradation Rates

Permafrost degradation caused by contemporary climate change significantly affects arctic regions. Active layer thickening combined with the thaw subsidence of ice-rich sediments leads to irreversible transformation of permafrost conditions and activation of exogenous processes, such as active layer detachment, thermokarst and thermal erosion. Climatic and permafrost models combined with a field monitoring dataset enable the provision of predicted estimations of the active layer and permafrost characteristics. In this paper, we present the projections of active layer thickness and thaw subsidence values for two Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites of Eastern Chukotka coastal plains. The calculated parameters were used for estimation of permafrost degradation rates in this region for the 21st century under various IPCC climate change scenarios. According to the studies, by the end of the century, the active layer will be 6–13% thicker than current values under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6 climate scenario and 43–87% under RCP 8.5. This process will be accompanied by thaw subsidence with the rates of 0.4–3.7 cm∙a−1. Summarized surface level lowering will have reached up to 5 times more than current active layer thickness. Total permafrost table lowering by the end of the century will be from 150 to 310 cm; however, it will not lead to non-merging permafrost formation.

scholarly journals Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3063-3085 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. S. Stevenson ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
A Value ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m−2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

scholarly journals Nitrogen oxides in the global upper troposphere: interpreting cloud-sliced NO<sub>2</sub> observations from the OMI satellite instrument

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eloise A. Marais ◽  
Daniel J. Jacob ◽  
Sungyeon Choi ◽  
Joanna Joiner ◽  
Maria Belmonte-Rivas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nitrogen Oxides ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
Global Coverage ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Lightning Nox ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) in the upper troposphere (UT) have a large impact on global tropospheric ozone and OH (the main atmospheric oxidant). New cloud-sliced observations of UT NO2 at 450–280 hPa (~ 6–9 km) from the OMI satellite instrument produced by NASA and KNMI provide global coverage to test our understanding of the factors controlling UT NOx. We find that these products offer useful information when averaged over coarse scales (20° × 32°, seasonal), and that the NASA product is more consistent with aircraft observations of UT NO2. Correlation with LIS/OTD satellite observations of lightning flash frequencies shows that lightning is the dominant source of NOx to the upper troposphere except for extratropical latitudes in winter. We infer a global mean NOx yield of 280 moles per lightning flash, with no significant difference between the tropics and mid-latitudes, and a global lightning NOx source of 5.6 Tg N a−1. There is indication that the NOx yield per flash increases with lightning flash footprint and with flash energy.

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