Effective radiative forcing in the aerosol–climate model CAM5.3-MARC-ARG

Abstract. We quantify the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosols modelled by the aerosol–climate model CAM5.3-MARC-ARG. CAM5.3-MARC-ARG is a new configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) in which the default aerosol module has been replaced by the two-Moment, Multi-Modal, Mixing-state-resolving Aerosol model for Research of Climate (MARC). CAM5.3-MARC-ARG uses the default ARG aerosol activation scheme, consistent with the default configuration of CAM5.3. We compute differences between simulations using year-1850 aerosol emissions and simulations using year-2000 aerosol emissions in order to assess the radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols. We compare the aerosol column burdens, cloud properties, and radiative effects produced by CAM5.3-MARC-ARG with those produced by the default configuration of CAM5.3, which uses the modal aerosol module with three log-normal modes (MAM3). Compared with MAM3, we find that MARC produces stronger cooling via the direct radiative effect, stronger cooling via the surface albedo radiative effect, and stronger warming via the cloud longwave radiative effect. The global mean cloud shortwave radiative effect is similar between MARC and MAM3, although the regional distributions differ. Overall, MARC produces a global mean net ERF of −1.75 ± 0.04 W m−2, which is stronger than the global mean net ERF of −1.57 ± 0.04 W m−2 produced by MAM3. The regional distribution of ERF also differs between MARC and MAM3, largely due to differences in the regional distribution of the cloud shortwave radiative effect. We conclude that the specific representation of aerosols in global climate models, including aerosol mixing state, has important implications for climate modelling.

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Effective radiative forcing in the aerosol–climate model CAM5.3-MARC-ARG

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-15783-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (21) ◽

pp. 15783-15810 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Benjamin S. Grandey ◽

Daniel Rothenberg ◽

Alexander Avramov ◽

Qinjian Jin ◽

Hsiang-He Lee ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Distribution ◽

Normal Modes ◽

Radiative Effect ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽

Cloud Radiative Effect ◽

Log Normal ◽

Aerosol Module ◽

Aerosol Emissions

Abstract. We quantify the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosols modelled by the aerosol–climate model CAM5.3-MARC-ARG. CAM5.3-MARC-ARG is a new configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) in which the default aerosol module has been replaced by the two-Moment, Multi-Modal, Mixing-state-resolving Aerosol model for Research of Climate (MARC). CAM5.3-MARC-ARG uses the ARG aerosol-activation scheme, consistent with the default configuration of CAM5.3. We compute differences between simulations using year-1850 aerosol emissions and simulations using year-2000 aerosol emissions in order to assess the radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols. We compare the aerosol lifetimes, aerosol column burdens, cloud properties, and radiative effects produced by CAM5.3-MARC-ARG with those produced by the default configuration of CAM5.3, which uses the modal aerosol module with three log-normal modes (MAM3), and a configuration using the modal aerosol module with seven log-normal modes (MAM7). Compared with MAM3 and MAM7, we find that MARC produces stronger cooling via the direct radiative effect, the shortwave cloud radiative effect, and the surface albedo radiative effect; similarly, MARC produces stronger warming via the longwave cloud radiative effect. Overall, MARC produces a global mean net ERF of -1.79±0.03 W m−2, which is stronger than the global mean net ERF of -1.57±0.04 W m−2 produced by MAM3 and -1.53±0.04 W m−2 produced by MAM7. The regional distribution of ERF also differs between MARC and MAM3, largely due to differences in the regional distribution of the shortwave cloud radiative effect. We conclude that the specific representation of aerosols in global climate models, including aerosol mixing state, has important implications for climate modelling.

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Implication of the reduction in anthropogenic aerosols due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery scenarios for radiative forcing

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-928 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Stephanie Fiedler ◽

Klaus Wyser ◽

Rogelj Joeri ◽

Twan van Noije

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Climate Response ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Radiative Effects ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Aerosol Forcing ◽

Effective Radiative Forcing ◽

Aerosol Emissions

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented reductions in socio-economic activities. Associated decreases in anthropogenic aerosol emissions are not represented in the original CMIP6 emission scenarios. Here we estimate the implications of the pandemic for the aerosol forcing in 2020 and quantify the spread in aerosol forcing associated with the differences in the post-pandemic recovery pathways. To this end, we use new emission scenarios taking the COVID-19 crisis into account and projecting different socio-economic developments until 2050 with fossil-fuel based and green pathways (Forster et al., 2020). We use the new emission data to generate input for the anthropogenic aerosol parameterization MACv2-SP for CMIP6 models. In this presentation, we first show the results for the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth and associated effects on clouds from the new MACv2-SP data for 2020 to 2050 (Fiedler et al., in review). We then use the MACv2-SP data to provide estimates of the effective radiative effects of the anthropogenic aerosols for 2020 and 2050. Our forcing estimates are based on new atmosphere-only simulations with the CMIP6 model EC-Earth3. The model uses MACv2-SP to represent aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions including aerosol effects on cloud lifetime. For each anthropogenic aerosol pattern, we run EC-Earth3 simulations for fifty years to substantially reduce the impact of model-internal variability on the forcing estimate. Our results highlight: (1) a change of +0.04 Wm-2 in the global mean effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols for 2020 due to the pandemic, which is small compared to the magnitude of internal variability, (2) a spread of -0.38 to -0.68 Wm-2 for the effective radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols in 2050 depending on the recovery scenario in MACv2-SP, and (3) a more negative (stronger) anthropogenic aerosol forcing for a strong green than a moderate green development in 2050 due to higher ammonium emissions in a highly decarbonized society (Fiedler et al., in review). The new MACv2-SP data are now used in climate models participating in the model intercomparison project on the climate response to the COVID-19 crisis (Covid-MIP, Jones et al., in review, Lamboll et al., in review).References:Fiedler, S., Wyser, K., Joeri, R., and van Noije, T.: Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery, in review, [preprint] https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504704.1.Forster, P.M., Forster, H.I., Evans, M.J.&#160;et al.:&#160;Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19.&#160;Nat. Clim. Chang.&#160;10,&#160;913&#8211;919, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0.Jones. C., Hickman, J., Rumbold, S., et al.: The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions due to COVID-19, Geophy. Res. Lett., in review.Lamboll, R. D., Jones, C. D., Skeie, R. B., Fiedler, S., Samset, B. H., Gillett, N. P., Rogelj, J., and Forster, P. M.: Modifying emission scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for Covid-MIP, in review, [preprint] https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-373.

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Explicit representation of subgrid variability in cloud microphysics yields weaker aerosol indirect effect in the ECHAM5-HAM2 climate model

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-15-703-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 703-714 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

J. Tonttila ◽

H. Järvinen ◽

P. Räisänen

Keyword(s):

Indirect Effect ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Cloud Microphysics ◽

Radiation Balance ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽

Aerosol Indirect Effect ◽

Cloud Activation ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. The impacts of representing cloud microphysical processes in a stochastic subcolumn framework are investigated, with emphasis on estimating the aerosol indirect effect. It is shown that subgrid treatment of cloud activation and autoconversion of cloud water to rain reduce the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud properties and thus reduce the global mean aerosol indirect effect by 19%, from −1.59 to −1.28 W m−2. This difference is partly related to differences in the model basic state; in particular, the liquid water path (LWP) is smaller and the shortwave cloud radiative forcing weaker when autoconversion is computed separately for each subcolumn. However, when the model is retuned so that the differences in the basic state LWP and radiation balance are largely eliminated, the global-mean aerosol indirect effect is still 14% smaller (i.e. −1.37 W m−2) than for the model version without subgrid treatment of cloud activation and autoconversion. The results show the importance of considering subgrid variability in the treatment of autoconversion. Representation of several processes in a self-consistent subgrid framework is emphasized. This paper provides evidence that omitting subgrid variability in cloud microphysics contributes to the apparently chronic overestimation of the aerosol indirect effect by climate models, as compared to satellite-based estimates.

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Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-1009.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 34 (1) ◽

pp. 195-214

Author(s):

Tyler J. Thorsen ◽

David M. Winker ◽

Richard A. Ferrare

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

Direct Interaction ◽

Future Generation ◽

Radiative Effect ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Total Uncertainty ◽

Observational Uncertainty ◽

Uncertainty Estimates ◽

Global Mean

AbstractA lower bound on the uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE; the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and the aerosol direct radiative forcing [DRF; the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols (RFari)] is quantified by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The global-mean all-sky aerosol DRE uncertainty was found to be 1.1 W m−2 (one standard deviation). The global-mean all-sky aerosol DRF (RFari) uncertainty was determined to be 0.31 W m−2. The total uncertainty in both quantities is dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This disconnect between our observation-based uncertainty and that found in past aerosol DRF studies that rely, at least in part, on modeling is discussed. Also quantified is a potential reduction in the current observational uncertainty possible with a future generation of satellite observations that would leverage aerosol typing and more refined vertical information.

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Implications of aerosol-induced snow darkening on regional hydroclimate over the Himalayas

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11972 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Vijayakumar Sivadasan Nair ◽

Usha Keshav Hasyagar ◽

Surendran Nair Suresh Babu

Keyword(s):

South Asia ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Radiation Balance ◽

Western Himalayas ◽

Radiative Effect ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽

Snow Albedo ◽

Snow Cover Extent

The snow-covered mountains of Himalayas are known to play a crucial role in the hydrology of South Asia and are known as the &#8220;Asian water tower&#8221;. Despite the high elevations, the transport of anthropogenic aerosols from south Asia and desert dust from west Asia plays a significant role in directly and indirectly perturbing the radiation balance and hydrological cycle over the region. Absorbing aerosols like black carbon (BC) and dust deposited on the snow surface reduces the albedo of the Himalayan snow significantly (snow darkening or snow albedo effect). Using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM-4.6.0) coupled with SNow, ICe and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) module, the implications of aerosol-induced snow darkening on the regional hydroclimate of the Himalayas are investigated in this study. The aerosols deposited on snow shows a distinct regional heterogeneity. The albedo reduction due to aerosols shows a west to east gradient during pre-monsoon season and this results in the positive radiative effect of about 29 Wm-2, 17 Wm-2 and 5 Wm-2 over western, central and eastern Himalayas respectively. The reduction in the snow albedo also results in the sign reversal of the aerosol direct radiative effect i.e., from warming to cooling at the top of the atmosphere during pre-monsoon season. The excess solar energy trapped at the surface due to snow darkening warms the surface (0.66-1.9 K) and thus decreases the snow cover extent significantly. This results in the reduction of the number of snow-covered days by more than a month over the western Himalayas and about 10 &#8211; 15 days over the central Himalayas. The early snowmelt due to aerosol-induced snow darkening results in the increase of runoff throughout the melting season. Therefore, the present study highlights the heterogeneous response of aerosol induced snow albedo feedbacks over the Himalayan region and its impact on the snowpack and hydrology, which has further implications on the freshwater availability over the region.

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Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-13-1037-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 13 (8) ◽

pp. 1037-1048 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Henrik Carlson ◽

Rodrigo Caballero

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Warm Season ◽

Cloud Albedo ◽

Cloud Properties ◽

Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

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Impact of biogenic hydrocarbons on tropospheric chemistry: results from a global chemistry-climate model

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-5-10517-2005 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 5 (5) ◽

pp. 10517-10612 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

G. A. Folberth ◽

D. A. Hauglustaine ◽

J. Lathière ◽

F. Brocheton

Keyword(s):

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Primary Source ◽

Tropospheric Chemistry ◽

Secondary Source ◽

Peroxy Radicals ◽

Substantial Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. We present a description and evaluation of LMDz-INCA, a global three-dimensional chemistry-climate model, pertaining to its recently developed NMHC version. In this substantially extended version of the model a comprehensive representation of the photochemistry of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) from biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass-burning sources has been included. The tropospheric annual mean methane (9.2 years) and methylchloroform (5.5 years) chemical lifetimes are well within the range of previous modelling studies and are in excellent agreement with estimates established by means of global observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the horizontal and vertical distribution and seasonal cycle of CO and key non-methane VOC, such as acetone, methanol, and formaldehyde as compared to observational data from several ground stations and aircraft campaigns. LMDz-INCA in the NMHC version reproduces tropospheric ozone concentrations fairly well throughout most of the troposphere. The model is applied in several sensitivity studies of the biosphere-atmosphere photochemical feedback. The impact of surface emissions of isoprene, acetone, and methanol is studied. These experiments show a substantial impact of isoprene on tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide concentrations revealing an increase in surface O3 and CO levels of up to 30 ppbv and 60 ppbv, respectively. Isoprene also appears to significantly impact the global OH distribution resulting in a decrease of the global mean tropospheric OH concentration by approximately 0.9×105 molecules cm−3 or roughly 10% and an increase in the global mean tropospheric methane lifetime by approximately four months. A global mean ozone net radiative forcing due to the isoprene induced increase in the tropospheric ozone burden of 0.09W m−2 is found. The key role of isoprene photooxidation in the global tropospheric redistribution of NOx is demonstrated. LMDz-INCA calculates an increase of PAN surface mixing ratios ranging from 75 to 750 pptv and 10 to 250 pptv during northern hemispheric summer and winter, respectively. Acetone and methanol are found to play a significant role in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) budget of peroxy radicals. Calculations with LMDz-INCA show an increase in HOx concentrations region of 8 to 15% and 10 to 15% due to methanol and acetone biogenic surface emissions, respectively. The model has been used to estimate the global tropospheric CO budget. A global CO source of 3019 TgCO yr−1 is estimated. This source divides into a primary source of 1533 TgCO yr−1 and secondary source of 1489 TgCO yr−1 deriving from VOC photooxidation. Global VOC-to-CO conversion efficiencies of 90% for methane and between 20 and 45% for individual VOC are calculated by LMDz-INCA.

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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 163 (3) ◽

pp. 1427-1442 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Steven J Smith ◽

Jean Chateau ◽

Kalyn Dorheim ◽

Laurent Drouet ◽

Olivier Durand-Lasserve ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Black Carbon ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Economic Structure ◽

Time Frame ◽

Focused Attention ◽

Carbon Mitigation ◽

Global Mean Temperature ◽

Model Parameter Uncertainty ◽

Global Mean

AbstractThe relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

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Contrasting the direct radiative effect and direct radiative forcing of aerosols

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-14-5513-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (11) ◽

pp. 5513-5527 ◽

Cited By ~ 105

Author(s):

C. L. Heald ◽

D. A. Ridley ◽

J. H. Kroll ◽

S. R. H. Barrett ◽

K. E. Cady-Pereira ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Energy Balance ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Transport Model ◽

Radiative Transfer Model ◽

Transfer Model ◽

Radiative Effect ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Direct Radiative Forcing

Abstract. The direct radiative effect (DRE) of aerosols, which is the instantaneous radiative impact of all atmospheric particles on the Earth's energy balance, is sometimes confused with the direct radiative forcing (DRF), which is the change in DRE from pre-industrial to present-day (not including climate feedbacks). In this study we couple a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) with a radiative transfer model (RRTMG) to contrast these concepts. We estimate a global mean all-sky aerosol DRF of −0.36 Wm−2 and a DRE of −1.83 Wm−2 for 2010. Therefore, natural sources of aerosol (here including fire) affect the global energy balance over four times more than do present-day anthropogenic aerosols. If global anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and their precursors continue to decline as projected in recent scenarios due to effective pollution emission controls, the DRF will shrink (−0.22 Wm−2 for 2100). Secondary metrics, like DRE, that quantify temporal changes in both natural and anthropogenic aerosol burdens are therefore needed to quantify the total effect of aerosols on climate.

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Investigation of short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols over North America using nudged hindcast ensembles

10.5194/acp-2017-414 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Yawen Liu ◽

Kai Zhang ◽

Yun Qian ◽

Yuhang Wang ◽

Yufei Zou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Analysis Data ◽

Ensemble Spread ◽

Short Term ◽

Large Ensemble ◽

Southern Mexico ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

Fire Emissions ◽

Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract. Aerosols from fire emissions can potentially have large impact on clouds and radiation. However, fire aerosol sources are often intermittent and their effect on weather and climate is difficult to quantify. Here we investigated the short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols using the global aerosol-climate model Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5). Different from previous studies, we used nudged hindcast ensembles to quantify the forcing uncertainty due to the chaotic response to small perturbations in the atmosphere state. Daily mean emissions from three fire inventories were used to consider the uncertainty in emission strength and injection heights. The simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and mass concentrations were evaluated against in-situ measurements and re-analysis data. Overall, the results show the model has reasonably good predicting skills. Short (10-day) nudged ensemble simulations were then performed with and without fire emissions to estimate the effective radiative forcing. Results show fire aerosols have large effects on both liquid and ice clouds over the two selected regions in April 2009. For the 10-day average, we found a large ensemble spread of regional mean shortwave cloud radiative effect over Southern Mexico (15.6 %) and the Central U.S. (64.3 %), despite that the regional mean AOD time series are almost indistinguishable during the 10-day period. Moreover, the ensemble spread is much larger when using daily averages instead of 10-day averages. For the case investigated here, a minimum of 9 ensemble members is necessary to get a reasonable estimate of the ensemble mean and spread of the forcing on individual days. This demonstrates the importance of using a large ensemble of simulations to estimate the short-term effective aerosol radiative forcing.

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