scholarly journals Objective quantification of perturbations produced with a piecewise PV inversion technique

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 2335-2349 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Fita ◽  
R. Romero ◽  
C. Ramis
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Thermal Anomaly ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
The North ◽  
Western Mediterranean Basin ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract. PV inversion techniques have been widely used in numerical studies of severe weather cases. These techniques can be applied as a way to study the sensitivity of the responsible meteorological system to changes in the initial conditions of the simulations. Dynamical effects of a collection of atmospheric features involved in the evolution of the system can be isolated. However, aspects, such as the definition of the atmospheric features or the amount of change in the initial conditions, are largely case-dependent and/or subjectively defined. An objective way to calculate the modification of the initial fields is proposed to alleviate this problem. The perturbations are quantified as the mean absolute variations of the total energy between the original and modified fields, and an unique energy variation value is fixed for all the perturbations derived from different PV anomalies. Thus, PV features of different dimensions and characteristics introduce the same net modification of the initial conditions from an energetic point of view. The devised quantification method is applied to study the high impact weather case of 9–11 November 2001 in the Western Mediterranean basin, when a deep and strong cyclone was formed. On the Balearic Islands 4 people died, and sustained winds of 30 ms−1 and precipitation higher than 200 mm/24 h were recorded. Moreover, 700 people died in Algiers during the first phase of the event. The sensitivities to perturbations in the initial conditions of a deep upper level trough, the anticyclonic system related to the North Atlantic high and the surface thermal anomaly related to the baroclinicity of the environment are determined. Results reveal a high influence of the upper level trough and the surface thermal anomaly and a minor role of the North Atlantic high during the genesis of the cyclone.

scholarly journals Understanding Precipitation Changes in Iberia in Early Spring: Weather Typing and Storm-Tracking Approaches

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Paredes ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
Ricardo Garcia-Herrera ◽  
Isabel Franco Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
The North ◽  
Western Mediterranean Basin ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Circulation Changes ◽  
Precipitation Trends

Abstract March monthly accumulated precipitation in the central and western regions of the Iberian Peninsula presents a clear continuous decline of 50% during the 1960–97 period. A finer analysis using daily data reveals that this trend is exactly confined to the month of March. However, this is merely the most visible aspect of a larger phenomenon over the North Atlantic/European sector. The European precipitation trends in March for the period 1960–2000 show a clear distribution of increasing precipitation in the northern regions (the British Isles and parts of Scandinavia) together with decreasing trends throughout the western Mediterranean Basin. Relevant circulation changes over the North Atlantic and European sectors explain these precipitation trends. First, a regional Eulerian approach by means of a weather-type (WT) classification shows that the major rainfall contributors in March display significantly decreasing frequencies for the Iberian Peninsula, in contrast to the corresponding “wet” weather types for the U.K./Ireland sector, which display increasing frequencies. Within a larger context, a Lagrangian approach, based on the analysis of storm tracks over Europe and the North Atlantic region, reveals dramatic changes in the location of cyclones in the last four decades that coincide with the corresponding precipitation trends in Europe. The North Atlantic Oscillation is suggested to be the most important large-scale factor controlling both the circulation changes and the precipitation trends over the Euro–Atlantic area in March. Finally, the potential impact of reduced precipitation for rivers and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula is considered.

scholarly journals Dynamics and Predictability of a Heavy Dry-Season Precipitation Event over West Africa—Sensitivity Experiments with a Global Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Meier ◽  
Peter Knippertz
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Sensitivity Experiments ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract In January 2002 the Cape Verde region in tropical West Africa was hit by an exceptionally heavy precipitation event. Rain rates of up to 116 mm (48 h)−1 caused harmful impacts on the local population. The rainfall was triggered by a series of two upper-level disturbances penetrating from the extratropics to the West African coast. This study investigates the dynamics and predictability of this event on the basis of simulations with the global model Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service [i.e., Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)] initialized by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data. Free forecasts satisfactorily reproduce the upper-level disturbances and the precipitation up to a lead time of 7 days. Several sensitivity experiments are conducted to unveil the reasons for this comparably high predictability and to identify dynamical precursors. The relevance of the upper-level wave structure in the extratropics is examined by modifications of the initial conditions using a quasigeostrophic potential vorticity (PV) inversion technique. While a reservoir of high PV over the North Atlantic and a PV ridge over Europe are found to be crucial for the upper-level wave amplification and the rainfall over West Africa, latent heating over the North Atlantic affects the event rather little in contrast to previous case studies. Surface properties like orography and sea surface temperature anomalies modify the precipitation quantity, but appear not to be essential for the occurrence of the extreme event on the simulated time scale.

scholarly journals Influence of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation on the 4.2 ka BP event

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 701-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bassem Jalali ◽  
Marie-Alexandrine Sicre ◽  
Julien Azuara ◽  
Violaine Pellichero ◽  
Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North ◽  
Western Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The 4.2 ka BP event, spanning from ca 4200 to 3900 cal BP, has been documented in numerous archaeological data and continental archives across the Northern Hemisphere as an abrupt shift to dry and cold climate. However, data on synchronous ocean circulation changes are notably lacking, thus preventing us from getting a full insight into the physical mechanisms responsible for this climate deterioration. Here, we present two high-resolution (5–20 years) sea surface temperature (SST) records from the subpolar gyre and off north Iceland in the vicinity of the polar front obtained from alkenone paleo-thermometry and compare them with proxy data from the western Mediterranean Sea to gain information on regional temperature and precipitation patterns. Our results are evidence of a temperature dipole pattern which, combined with other paleo-oceanographic records of the North Atlantic, suggests a weakening of the subpolar gyre possibly associated with atmospheric blocked regimes.

I.—On the Eastern Margin of the North Atlantic Basin

1899 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 97-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfrid H. Hudleston
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Physical Geography ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Eastern Margin ◽  
North Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

In offering a few remarks on a subject which belongs, in the first instance, to the province of physical geography, it will be necessary forme to point out certain hydrographical details, whilst, endeavouring to deduce from these details conclusions having a geological bearing. Oceanography is almost a science in itself, especially if we regard it from a geological point of view, as something more than a mere description of water-spaces and soundings. Ever since the days when the deep oceans were first explored for the purpose of laying the telegraph cables some of the leading facts were made known, and have since become familiar to all students of physical geography.

scholarly journals Hurricane Katrina (2005). Part II: Evolution and Hemispheric Impacts of a Diabatically Generated Warm Pool

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (12) ◽  
pp. 3927-3949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ron McTaggart-Cowan ◽  
Lance F. Bosart ◽  
John R. Gyakum ◽  
Eyad H. Atallah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
The United States ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract The landfall of Hurricane Katrina (2005) near New Orleans, Louisiana, on 29 August 2005 will be remembered as one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the United States. By comparison, the extratropical transition (ET) of the system as it accelerates poleward over the following days is innocuous and the system weakens until its eventual demise off the coast of Greenland. The extent of Katrina’s perturbation of the midlatitude flow would appear to be limited given the lack of reintensification or downstream development during ET. However, the slow progression of a strong upper-tropospheric warm pool across the North Atlantic Ocean in the week following Katrina’s landfall prompts the question of whether even a nonreintensifying ET event can lead to significant modification of the midlatitude flow. Analysis of Hurricane Katrina’s outflow layer after landfall suggests that it does not itself make up the long-lived midlatitude warm pool. However, the interaction between Katrina’s anticyclonic outflow and an approaching baroclinic trough is shown to establish an anomalous southwesterly conduit or “freeway” that injects a preexisting tropospheric warm pool over the southwestern United States into the midlatitudes. This warm pool reduces predictability in medium-range forecasts over the North Atlantic and Europe while simultaneously aiding in the development of Hurricanes Maria and Nate. The origin of the warm pool is shown to be the combination of anticyclonic upper-level features generated by eastern Pacific Hurricane Hilary and the south Asian anticyclone (SAA). The hemispheric nature of the connections involved with the development of the warm pool and its injection into the extratropics has an impact on forecasting, since the predictability issue associated with ET in this case involves far more than the potential reintensification of the transitioning system itself.

scholarly journals Modelling the wintertime response to upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone anomalies over the North Atlantic and Europe

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2107-2118 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Kirchner ◽  
D. Peters
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. During boreal winter months, mean longitude-dependent ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are mainly caused by different ozone transport by planetary waves. The response to radiative perturbation induced by these ozone changes near the tropopause on the circulation is unclear. This response is investigated with the ECHAM4 general circulation model in a sensitivity study. In the simulation two different mean January realizations of the ozone field are implemented in ECHAM4. Both ozone fields are estimated on the basis of the observed mean January planetary wave structure of the 1980s. The first field represents a 14-year average (reference, 1979–1992) and the second one represents the mean ozone field change (anomaly, 1988–92) in boreal extra-tropics during the end of the 1980s. The model runs were carried out pairwise, with identical initial conditions for both ozone fields. Five statistically independent experiments were performed, forced with the observed sea surface temperatures for the period 1988 to 1992. The results support the hypothesis that the zonally asymmetric ozone changes of the 80s triggered a systematic alteration of the circulation over the North Atlantic – European region. It is suggested that this feedback process is important for the understanding of the decadal coupling between troposphere and stratosphere, as well as between subtropics and extra-tropics in winter.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation; radiative processes; synoptic-scale meteorology)

Potential Predictability of the Silk Road Pattern and the Role of SST as Inferred from Seasonal Hindcast Experiments of a Coupled Climate Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (22) ◽  
pp. 9567-9580
Author(s):  
Ronald Kwan Kit Li ◽  
Chi Yung Tam ◽  
Ngar Cheung Lau ◽  
Soo Jin Sohn ◽  
Joong Bae Ahn
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Silk Road ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
The North ◽  
Silk Road Pattern ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Silk Road ◽  
Wind Bias

AbstractThe Silk Road pattern (SR) is a leading mode of atmospheric circulation over midlatitude Eurasia in boreal summer. Its temporal phase is known to be unpredictable in many models. Previous studies have not reached a clear consensus on the role of sea surface temperature (SST) associated with SR. By comparing seasonal hindcasts from the Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model with reanalysis, we investigate if there are any sources of predictability originating from the SST. It was found that the PNU model cannot predict SR temporally. In fact, SR is associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the model hindcasts, in contrast to reanalysis results in which SR is more associated with North Atlantic SST anomalies. The PNU system, however, shows potential predictability in SR associated with tropical Pacific SST. Bias in stationary Rossby waveguides is proposed as an explanation for the SR–ENSO relationship in hindcast runs. Model upper-level wind bias in the North Atlantic results in a less continuous waveguide connecting the North Atlantic to Asia, and may hinder wave propagations induced by North Atlantic SST to trigger SR. On the other hand, model upper-level wind bias in the subtropical western Pacific may favor westward propagation of zonally elongated waves from the ENSO region to trigger SR. This study implies that the role of SST with regard to SR can be substantially changed depending on the fidelity of model upper-level background winds.

scholarly journals Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 807-816 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Martín-Puertas ◽  
F. Jiménez-Espejo ◽  
F. Martínez-Ruiz ◽  
V. Nieto-Moreno ◽  
M. Rodrigo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Medieval Climate Anomaly ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Climate Anomaly ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G) and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain) geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP). Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

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