scholarly journals Simulating natural carbon sequestration in the Southern Ocean: on uncertainties associated with eddy parameterizations and iron deposition

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiner Dietze ◽  
Julia Getzlaff ◽  
Ulrike Löptien
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Comprehensive Understanding ◽  
Biogeochemical Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Natural Carbon ◽  
Oceanic Carbon

Abstract. The Southern Ocean is a major sink for anthropogenic carbon. Yet, there is no quantitative consensus about how this sink will change when surface winds increase (as they are anticipated to do). Among the tools employed to quantify carbon uptake are global coupled ocean-circulation biogeochemical models. Because of computational limitations these models still fail to resolve potentially-important spatial scales. Instead, processes on these scales are parameterized. There is concern that deficiencies in these so-called eddy-parameterizations might imprint wrong sensitivities of projected oceanic carbon uptake. Here, we compare natural carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean simulated with contemporary eddy-parameterizations. We find that very differing parameterizations yield surprisingly similar oceanic carbon in response to strengthening winds. In contrast, we find (in an additional simulation) that the carbon uptake does differ substantially when the supply of bioavailable iron is altered within its envelope of uncertainty. We conclude that a more comprehensive understanding of bioavailable iron dynamics will substantially reduce the uncertainty of model-based projections of oceanic carbon uptake.

scholarly journals Simulating natural carbon sequestration in the Southern Ocean: on uncertainties associated with eddy parameterizations and iron deposition

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1561-1576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiner Dietze ◽  
Julia Getzlaff ◽  
Ulrike Löptien
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Comprehensive Understanding ◽  
Biogeochemical Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Natural Carbon ◽  
Oceanic Carbon

Abstract. The Southern Ocean is a major sink for anthropogenic carbon. Yet, there is no quantitative consensus about how this sink will change when surface winds increase (as they are anticipated to do). Among the tools employed to quantify carbon uptake are global coupled ocean-circulation–biogeochemical models. Because of computational limitations these models still fail to resolve potentially important spatial scales. Instead, processes on these scales are parameterized. There is concern that deficiencies in these so-called eddy parameterizations might imprint incorrect sensitivities of projected oceanic carbon uptake. Here, we compare natural carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean simulated with contemporary eddy parameterizations. We find that very differing parameterizations yield surprisingly similar oceanic carbon in response to strengthening winds. In contrast, we find (in an additional simulation) that the carbon uptake does differ substantially when the supply of bioavailable iron is altered within its envelope of uncertainty. We conclude that a more comprehensive understanding of bioavailable iron dynamics will substantially reduce the uncertainty of model-based projections of oceanic carbon uptake.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic carbon dynamics in the changing ocean

Ocean Science ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Tjiputra ◽  
K. Assmann ◽  
C. Heinze
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Natural Carbon

Abstract. The long-term response of CO2 fluxes to climate change at the ocean surface and within the ocean interior is investigated using a coupled climate-carbon cycle model. This study also presents the first attempt to quantify the evolution of lateral transport of anthropogenic carbon under future climate change. Additionally, its impact on regional carbon storage and uptake is also evaluated. For the 1850–2099 period, our climate change simulation predicts oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon of about 538±23 Pg C. Another simulation indicates that changes in physical climate and its associated biogeochemical feedbacks result in a release of natural carbon of about 22±30 Pg C. The natural carbon outgassing is attributed to the reduction in solubility and change in wind pattern in the Southern Hemisphere. After the anthropogenic carbon passes through the air-sea interface, it is predominantly transported along the large scale overturning circulation below the surface layer. The spatial variations in the transport patterns in turn influence the evolution of future regional carbon uptake. In the North Atlantic, a slow down in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakens the penetration strength of anthropogenic carbon into the deeper ocean, which leads to a reduced uptake rate in this region. In contrast, more than half of the anthropogenic carbon taken up in the high latitude Southern Ocean region (south of 58° S) is efficiently and continuously exported northward, predominantly into intermediate waters. This transport mechanism allows continuous increase in future carbon uptake in the high latitude Southern Ocean, where the annual uptake strength could reach 39.3±0.9 g C m−2 yr−1, more than twice the global mean of 16.0±0.3 g C m−2 yr−1 by the end of the 21st century. Our study further underlines the key role of the Southern Ocean in controlling long-term future carbon uptake.

Emergent constraints on the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon and heat uptake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Frölicher ◽  
Jens Terhaar ◽  
Fortunat Joos
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Excess Heat ◽  
The Past ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon

<p>The Southern Ocean south of 30°S, occupying about a third of global surface ocean area, accounts for approximately 40% of the past anthropogenic carbon uptake and about 75% of excess heat uptake by the ocean. However, Earth system models have large difficulties in reproducing the Southern Ocean circulation, and therefore its historical and future anthropogenic carbon and excess heat uptake. In the first part of the talk, we show that there exists a tight relation across two Earth system model ensembles (CMIP5 and CMIP6) between present-day sea surface salinity in the subtropical-polar frontal zone, the formation region of mode and intermediate waters, and the past and future anthropogenic carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean. By using observations and Earth system model results, we constrain the projected cumulative Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake over 1850-2100 by the CMIP6 model ensemble to 158 ± 6 Pg C under the low-emissions scenario SSP1-2.6 and to 279 ± 14 Pg C under the high emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. Our results suggest that the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink is 14-18% larger and 46-54% less uncertain than estimated by the unconstrained CMIP6 Earth system model results. The identified constraint demonstrated the importance of the freshwater cycle for the Southern Ocean circulation and carbon cycle. In the second part of the talk, potential emergent constraints for the Southern Ocean excess heat uptake will be discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Anthropogenic carbon dynamics in the changing ocean

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-415
Author(s):  
J. F. Tjiputra ◽  
K. Assmann ◽  
C. Heinze
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Natural Carbon

Abstract. Long-term response of CO2 fluxes to climate change at the ocean surface and the ocean interior are investigated using a coupled climate-carbon cycle model. This study also presents the first attempt in quantifying the evolution of lateral transport of anthropogenic carbon under future climate change. Additionally, its impact on regional carbon storage and uptake are also evaluated. For the 1850–2100 period, our climate change simulation predicts oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon of about 538 Pg C. Another simulation indicates that changes in physical climate alone results in a release of natural carbon of about 22 Pg C. The natural carbon outgassing is attributed to the reduction in solubility and change in wind pattern in the Southern Hemisphere. After the anthropogenic carbon passes through the air-sea interface, it is predominantly transported along the large scale overturning circulation below the surface layer. The spatial variations in the transport patterns in turn influence the evolution of future regional carbon uptake. In the North Atlantic, a slow down in Atlantic Meridional Overturnning Circulation weakens the penetration strength of anthropogenic carbon into the deeper ocean, which leads to the reduced uptake rate in this region. In contrast, more than half of the anthropogenic carbon taken up in the high latitude Southern Ocean region (south of 58° S) are efficiently and continuously exported northward, predominantly into intermediate waters. This peculiar transport mechanism allow continuous increase in future carbon uptake in the high latitude Southern Ocean, where the annual uptake strength could reach 3.5 g C m−2 yr−1, nearly triple the global mean of 1.3 g C m−2 yr−1 by the end of the 21st century. Our study further underlines the key role of the Southern Ocean in controlling long-term future carbon uptake.

scholarly journals Impact of Historical Climate Change on the Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 5820-5834 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Matear ◽  
A. Lenton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Saturation State ◽  
Aragonite Saturation ◽  
Freshwater Fluxes ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Natural Carbon ◽  
Ocean Carbon

Abstract Climate change over the last several decades is suggested to cause a decrease in the magnitude of the uptake of CO2 by the Southern Ocean (Le Quere et al.). In this study, the atmospheric fields from NCEP R1 for the years 1948–2003 are used to drive an ocean biogeochemical model to probe how changes in the heat and freshwater fluxes and in the winds affect the Southern Ocean’s uptake of carbon. Over this period, the model simulations herein show that the increases in heat and freshwater fluxes drive a net increase in Southern Ocean uptake (south of 40°S) while the increases in wind stresses drive a net decrease in uptake. The total Southern Ocean response is nearly identical with the simulation without climate change because the heat and freshwater flux response is approximately both equal and opposite to the wind stress response. It is also shown that any change in the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake is always opposed by a much larger change in the natural carbon air–sea exchange. For the 1948–2003 period, the changes in the natural carbon cycle dominate the Southern Ocean carbon uptake response to climate change. However, it is shown with a simple box model that when atmospheric CO2 levels exceed the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) of the upwelled Circumpolar Deep Water (≈450 μatm) the Southern Ocean uptake response will be dominated by the changes in anthropogenic carbon uptake. Therefore, the suggestion that the Southern Ocean carbon uptake is a positive feedback to global warming is only a transient response that will change to a negative feedback in the near future if the present climate trend continues. Associated with the increased outgassing of carbon from the natural carbon cycle was a reduction in the aragonite saturation state of the high-latitude Southern Ocean (south of 60°S). In the simulation with just wind stress changes, the reduction in the high-latitude Southern Ocean aragonite saturation state (≈0.2) was comparable to the magnitude of the decline in the aragonite saturation state over the last 4 decades because of rising atmospheric CO2 levels (≈0.2). The simulation showed that climate change could significantly impact aragonite saturation state in the Southern Ocean.

scholarly journals Long-term response of oceanic carbon uptake to global warming via physical and biological pumps

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (13) ◽  
pp. 4163-4180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akitomo Yamamoto ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Biological Pumps ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
Oceanic Carbon

Abstract. Global warming is expected to significantly decrease oceanic carbon uptake and therefore increase atmospheric CO2 and global warming. The primary reasons given in previous studies for such changes in the oceanic carbon uptake are the solubility reduction due to seawater warming and changes in the ocean circulation and biological pump. However, the quantitative contributions of different processes to the overall reduction in ocean uptake are still unclear. In this study, we investigated multi-millennium responses of oceanic carbon uptake to global warming and quantified the contributions of the physical and biological pumps to these responses using an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and a biogeochemical model. We found that global warming reduced oceanic CO2 uptake by 13 % (30 %) in the first 140 years (after 2000 model years), consistent with previous studies. Our sensitivity experiments showed that this reduction is primarily driven by changes in the organic matter cycle via ocean circulation change and solubility change due to seawater warming. These results differ from most previous studies, in which circulation changes and solubility change from seawater warming are the dominant processes. The weakening of biological production and carbon export induced by circulation change and lower nutrient supply, diminishes the vertical DIC gradient and substantially reduces the CO2 uptake. The weaker deep-ocean circulation decreases the downward transport of CO2 from the surface to the deep ocean, leading to a drop in CO2 uptake in high-latitude regions. Conversely, weaker equatorial upwelling reduces the upward transport of natural CO2 and therefore enhances the CO2 uptake in low-latitude regions. Because these effects cancel each other out, circulation change plays only a small direct role in the reduction of CO2 uptake due to global warming but a large indirect role through nutrient transport and biological processes.

Natural carbon release over-rides anthropogenic carbon uptake when Southern Hemispheric westerlies strengthen

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Spence ◽  
Laurie Menviel ◽  
Darryn Waugh
Keyword(s):  
Total Carbon ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Carbon Loss ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Carbon Release ◽  
Natural Carbon ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Southern Ocean is one of today's largest sink of carbon, having absorbed about 10\% of the anthropogenic carbon emissions. Southern Ocean's dynamics are principally modulated by the strength of the Southern Hemispheric westerlies,  which are projected to increase over the coming century. Here, using a high-resolution ocean-sea-ice-carbon cycle model, we explore the impact of idealized changes in Southern Hemispheric westerlies on the ocean carbon storage . We find that a 20\% strengthening of the Southern Hemispheric westerlies leads to a $\sim$25 Gt loss of natural carbon, while an additional 13 Gt of anthropogenic carbon is absorbed compared to the control run, thus resulting in a net loss of $\sim$12 GtC from the ocean over a period of 42 years. This tendency is enhanced if the westerlies are also shifted polewards, with a total natural carbon loss of almost 37 GtC, and an additional anthropogenic carbon uptake of 18 GtC. While both experiments display a large natural carbon loss south of 10$^\circ$S, the amplitude is three times greater in the poleward strengthening case, which is  not fully compensated by the increase in anthropogenic carbon content. However, the poleward wind shift leads to significant differences in the pattern of DIC change due to a weakening of the upper overturning cell,  which leads to an increase in natural and total carbon north of 35$^\circ$S in the upper 2000 m.</p>

scholarly journals TREE RING RECONSTRUCTION OF MODERN RADIOCARBON DIOXIDE VARIABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Corran
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Latitudinal Gradient ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Ocean Carbon

<p><b>The Southern Ocean is the largest ocean carbon sink region. However, its trend of increasing carbon uptake has shown variability over recent decades. It is important to understand the underlying mechanisms of anthropogenic carbon uptake such that the future response of the Southern Ocean carbon sink under climate forcing can be predicted. </b></p><p>The carbon uptake of the Southern Ocean is characterised by the balance of outgassing of CO2 from carbon-rich deep water and sequestration of anthropogenic carbon into surface waters. Atmospheric radiocarbon dioxide (Del14CO2) in the Southern Hemisphere is sensitive to the release of CO2 from the upwelling of ‘old’ 14C-depleted carbon-rich deep water at high southern latitudes, but is insensitive to CO2 uptake into the ocean. Thus Del14CO2 has the potential to be used as a tracer of the upwelling observed, thereby isolating the outgassing carbon component. </p><p>The Southern Ocean Region has limited atmospheric Del14CO2 measurements, with sparse long-term sampling sites and few shipboard flask measurements. Therefore in this PhD project I exploit annual growth tree rings, which record the Del14C content of atmospheric CO2, to reconstruct Del14CO2 back in time. Within tree ring sample pretreatment for 14C measurement I automate the organic solvent wash method at the Rafter Radiocarbon Laboratory. I present new annual-resolution reconstructions of atmospheric Del14CO2 from tree rings, from coastal sites in New Zealand and Chile, spanning a latitudinal range of 44 S to 55 S, for the period of interest, 1985 – 2015. Data quality analysis using a range of replicate 14C measurements conducted within this project leads to assignment of apx 1.9 ‰ uncertainties for all results, in line with atmospheric measurements. </p><p>In this project I also develop a harmonised dataset of atmospheric Del14CO2 measurements in the Southern Hemisphere for this period from different research groups, including the new tree ring Del14CO2 records alongside existing data. The harmonised atmospheric Del14CO2 dataset has a wide range of applications, but specifically here allows investigation of temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric Del14CO2 over the Southern Ocean over recent decades, thereby also considering the role of upwelling in recent Southern Ocean carbon sink variability. Backward trajectories are produced for the tree ring sites from an atmospheric transport model, to help inform interpretation of results. </p><p>Over recent decades a latitudinal gradient of 3.7 ‰ is observed between 41 S and 53 S in the New Zealand sector, with a smaller gradient of 1.6 ‰ between 48 S and 55S in the Chile sector. This is consistent with other studies, with the spatial variability of atmospheric Del14CO2 attributed to air-sea 14C disequilibrium associated with carbon outgassing from 14C-depleted carbon-rich deep water upwelling at around 60 S, driving a latitudinal gradient of atmospheric Del14CO2 in the Southern Hemisphere, with longitudinal variability also observed. A stronger atmospheric Del14CO2 latitudinal gradient is observed in the 1980s/1990s relative to later 1990s/2000s. Stronger atmospheric Del14CO2 latitudinal gradients observed in 1980s/1990s suggest stronger deep water upwelling thereby greater associated outgassing of 14C-depleted CO2. These Del14CO2-based observations are consistent with modelling studies that predict changes in deep-water upwelling have controlled decadal variability in CO2 uptake, and are consistent with observation-based studies of decadal changes in rate of CO2 uptake of the Southern Ocean. The results presented in this thesis present the first observation-based confirmation that decadal changes in the strength of deep-water upwelling can explain decadal changes in the rate of CO2 uptake. </p>

Quantifying the ocean carbon sink for 1994-2007: Combined evidence from multiple methods

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galen A. McKinley ◽  
Jessica Cross ◽  
Timothy DeVries ◽  
Judith Hauck ◽  
Amanda Fay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Working Group ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Best Estimate ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Natural Carbon ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
Ocean Carbon

&lt;p&gt;By means of a variety of international observing and modeling efforts, the ocean carbon community has developed numerous estimates for ocean carbon uptake. In this presentation, we report on the synthesis effort we are undertaking under the auspices of an Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Working Group. &amp;#160;Our initial goal for this working group is to determine the best estimate for the net and anthropogenic carbon sink from 1994-2007 based on three approaches that independently use interior data, surface data or hindcast ocean models. Combining two approaches that use interior ocean data to estimate anthropogenic carbon, F&lt;sub&gt;ant&lt;/sub&gt; = -2.40+-0.21 PgC/yr (2 sigma uncertainty). Estimates for the net, or contemporary, ocean carbon uptake come from 6 products that interpolate surface ocean pCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; data to global coverage: F&lt;sub&gt;net&lt;/sub&gt; = -1.58+-0.19 &amp;#160;PgC/yr for 1994-2007. Uncertain closure terms for naturally-outgassed river-derived carbon and non-steady state natural carbon fluxes in the open ocean are then added to derive F&lt;sub&gt;ant&lt;/sub&gt; from surface observation-based Fnet. Ocean models do not include river-derived carbon, but do include non-steady state natural carbon fluxes, and thus a third estimate for Fant is derived. The combined best-estimate is F&lt;sub&gt;ant&lt;/sub&gt; = -2.35+-0.53 PgC/yr.&amp;#160; We detail the uncertainties and assumptions made in deriving these estimates, and suggest paths forward to further reduce uncertainties.&lt;/p&gt;

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