scholarly journals Eddy permitting simulations of freshwater injection from major Northern Hemisphere outlets during the last deglacial

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Love ◽  
Heather Andres ◽  
Alan Condron ◽  
Lev Tarasov
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
The North ◽  
Glacial Runoff ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Climate Transitions

Abstract. Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial to millennial scale climate variability such as the Younger Dryas and Dansgaard-Oeschger Events. Indeed, freshwater injection/hosing experiments with climate models have long shown that freshwater has the capability of generating such abrupt climate transitions. However, the relationship between freshwater and abrupt climate transitions is not straightforward. Large-scale glacial runoff events, such as Meltwater Pulse 1A, are not always temporally proximal to subsequent large-scale cooling. As well, the typical design of hosing experiments tends to artificially amplify the climate response. This study explores the impact that limitations in the representation of runoff in conventional hosing simulations has on our understanding of this relationship and addresses the more fundamental question of where coastally released freshwater is transported when it reaches the ocean. We focus particularly on the prior use of excessive freshwater volumes (often by a factor of 5) and present-day (rather than paleo) ocean gateways, as well as the injection of freshwater directly over sites of deep-water formation (DWF) rather than at runoff locations. We track the routing of glaciologically-constrained freshwater volumes from four different plausible injection locations in a suite of eddy-permitting glacial ocean simulations using MITGCM under both open and closed Bering Strait conditions. Restricting freshwater forcing values to realistic ranges results in less spreading of freshwater across the North Atlantic and indicates that the response of DWF depends strongly on the geographical location of meltwater input. In particular, freshwater released into the Gulf of Mexico has little impact on DWF regions as a result of turbulent mixing by the Gulf Stream. In contrast, freshwater released from the Eurasian Ice sheet or initially into the Arctic is found to have the largest impact on DWF in the North Atlantic and GIN seas. Additional experiments show that when the Bering Strait is open, much like present-day, the Mackenzie River source exhibits twice as much freshening of the Labrador sea as a closed Bering Strait. Finally, our results illustrate that applying a freshwater hosing directly into the North Atlantic with even realistic freshwater amounts still over-estimates the effect of terrestrial runoff on ocean circulation.

scholarly journals Freshwater routing in eddy-permitting simulations of the last deglacial: the impact of realistic freshwater discharge

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2327-2341
Author(s):  
Ryan Love ◽  
Heather J. Andres ◽  
Alan Condron ◽  
Lev Tarasov
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Deep Water Formation ◽  
The North ◽  
Water Formation ◽  
Glacial Runoff ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability, such as the Younger Dryas and Dansgaard–Oeschger events, but this relationship is not straightforward. Large-scale glacial runoff events, such as Meltwater Pulse 1a (MWP1a), are not always temporally proximal to subsequent large-scale cooling. Moreover, the typical design of hosing experiments that support this relationship tends to artificially amplify the climate response. This study explores the impact that limitations in the representation of runoff in conventional “hosing” simulations has on our understanding of this relationship by examining where coastally released freshwater is transported when it reaches the ocean. We particularly focus on the impact of (1) the injection of freshwater directly over sites of deep-water formation (DWF) rather than at runoff locations (i.e. hosing), (2) excessive freshwater injection volumes (often by a factor of 5), and (3) the use of present-day (rather than palaeo) ocean gateways. We track the routing of glaciologically constrained freshwater volumes from four different inferred injection locations in a suite of eddy-permitting glacial ocean simulations using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) under both open and closed Bering Strait conditions. Restricting freshwater forcing values to realistic ranges results in less spreading of freshwater across the North Atlantic and indicates that the freshwater anomalies over DWF sites depend strongly on the geographical location of meltwater input. In particular, freshwater released into the Gulf of Mexico generates a very weak freshwater signal over DWF regions as a result of entrainment by the turbulent Gulf Stream. In contrast, freshwater released into the Arctic with an open Bering Strait or from the Eurasian ice sheet is found to generate the largest salinity anomalies over DWF regions in the North Atlantic and GIN (Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian) seas region respectively. Experiments show that when the Bering Strait is open, the Mackenzie River source exhibits more than twice as much freshening of the North Atlantic deep-water formation regions as when the Bering Strait is closed. Our results illustrate that applying freshwater hosing directly into the North Atlantic with even “realistic” freshwater amounts still overestimates the amount of terrestrial runoff reaching DWF regions. Given the simulated salinity anomaly distributions and the lack of reconstructed impact on deep-water formation during the Bølling–Allerød, our results support that the majority of the North American contribution to MWP1a was not routed through the Mackenzie River.

scholarly journals Heat transport pathways into the Arctic and their connections to surface air temperatures

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 3927-3937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Mewes ◽  
Christoph Jacobi
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. Arctic amplification causes the meridional temperature gradient between middle and high latitudes to decrease. Through this decrease the large-scale circulation in the midlatitudes may change and therefore the meridional transport of heat and moisture increases. This in turn may increase Arctic warming even further. To investigate patterns of Arctic temperature, horizontal transports and their changes in time, we analysed ERA-Interim daily winter data of vertically integrated horizontal moist static energy transport using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Three general transport pathways have been identified: the North Atlantic pathway with transport mainly over the northern Atlantic, the North Pacific pathway with transport from the Pacific region, and the Siberian pathway with transport towards the Arctic over the eastern Siberian region. Transports that originate from the North Pacific are connected to negative temperature anomalies over the central Arctic. These North Pacific pathways have been becoming less frequent during the last decades. Patterns with origin of transport in Siberia are found to have no trend and show cold temperature anomalies north of Svalbard. It was found that transport patterns that favour transport through the North Atlantic into the central Arctic are connected to positive temperature anomalies over large regions of the Arctic. These temperature anomalies resemble the warm Arctic–cold continents pattern. Further, it could be shown that transport through the North Atlantic has been becoming more frequent during the last decades.

scholarly journals The Basic Ingredients of the North Atlantic Storm Track. Part I: Land–Sea Contrast and Orography

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (9) ◽  
pp. 2539-2558 ◽  
Author(s):  
David James Brayshaw ◽  
Brian Hoskins ◽  
Michael Blackburn
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
North American Continent ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Understanding and predicting changes in storm tracks over longer time scales is a challenging problem, particularly in the North Atlantic. This is due in part to the complex range of forcings (land–sea contrast, orography, sea surface temperatures, etc.) that combine to produce the structure of the storm track. The impact of land–sea contrast and midlatitude orography on the North Atlantic storm track is investigated through a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in a high-resolution version of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3). This framework captures the large-scale essence of features such as the North and South American continents, Eurasia, and the Rocky Mountains, enabling the results to be applied more directly to realistic modeling situations than was possible with previous idealized studies. The physical processes by which the forcing mechanisms impact the large-scale flow and the midlatitude storm tracks are discussed. The characteristics of the North American continent are found to be very important in generating the structure of the North Atlantic storm track. In particular, the southwest–northeast tilt in the upper tropospheric jet produced by southward deflection of the westerly flow incident on the Rocky Mountains leads to enhanced storm development along an axis close to that of the continent’s eastern coastline. The approximately triangular shape of North America also enables a cold pool of air to develop in the northeast, intensifying the surface temperature contrast across the eastern coastline, consistent with further enhancements of baroclinicity and storm growth along the same axis.

scholarly journals Transport and Fate of 137Cs Released From Multiple Sources in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Maderich ◽  
Kyeong Ok Kim ◽  
Roman Bezhenar ◽  
Kyung Tae Jung ◽  
Vazira Martazinova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bottom Sediment ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Global Fallout ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Secondary Contamination

The North Atlantic and Arctic oceans, along with the North Pacific, are the main reservoirs of anthropogenic radionuclides introduced in the past 75 years. The POSEIDON-R compartment model was applied to the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans to reconstruct 137Cs contamination in 1945–2020 due to multiple sources: global fallout, exchange flows with other oceans, point-source inputs in the ocean from reprocessing plants and other nuclear facilities, the impact of the Chernobyl accident and secondary contamination resulting from river runoff and redissolution from bottom sediments. The model simulated the marine environment as a system of 3D compartments comprising the water column, bottom sediment, and biota. The dynamic model described the transfer of 137Cs through the pelagic and benthic food chains. The simulation results were validated using the marine database MARIS. The calculated concentrations of 137Cs in the seaweed and non-piscivorous and piscivorous pelagic fish mostly followed the concentration of 137Cs in water. The concentration in coastal predator fish lagged behind the concentration in water as a result of a diet that includes both pelagic and benthic organisms. The impact of each considered source on the total concentration of 137Cs in non-piscivorous fish in the regions of interest was analyzed. Whereas the contribution from global fallout dominated in 1960–1970, in 1970–1990, the contribution of 137Cs released from reprocessing plants exceeded the contributions from other sources in almost all considered regions. Secondary contamination due to river runoff was less than 4% of ocean influx. The maximum total inventory of 137Cs in the Arctic Ocean (31,122 TBq) was reached in 1988, whereas the corresponding inventory in the bottom sediment was approximately 6% of the total. The general agreement between simulated and observed 137Cs concentrations in water and bottom sediment was confirmed by the estimates of geometric mean and geometric standard deviation, which varied from 0.89 to 1.29 and from 1.22 to 1.87, respectively. The approach used is useful to synthesize measurement and simulation data in areas with observational gaps. For this purpose, 13 representative regions in the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans were selected for monitoring by using the “etalon” method for classification.

scholarly journals The Impact of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1806-1823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela J. Colbert ◽  
Brian J. Soden ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) is examined using a beta and advection model (BAM) to isolate the influence of changes in the large-scale steering flow from changes in genesis location. The BAM captures many of the observed changes in TC tracks due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while little change is noted for the Pacific decadal oscillation and all-India monsoon rainfall in either observations or BAM simulations. Analysis with the BAM suggests that the observed shifts in the average track between the phases of ENSO are primarily due to changes in the large-scale steering flow, with changes in genesis location playing a secondary role. Potential changes in TC tracks over the WNP due to anthropogenic climate change are also assessed. Ensemble mean projections are downscaled from 17 CMIP3 models and 26 CMIP5 models. Statistically significant decreases [~(4%–6%)] in westward moving TCs and increases [~(5%–7%)] in recurving ocean TCs are found. These correspond to projected decreases of 3–5 TCs per decade over the Philippines and increases of 1–3 TCs per decade over the central WNP. The projected changes are primarily caused by a reduction in the easterlies. This slows the storm movement, allowing more time for the beta drift to carry the storm northward and recurve. A previous study found similar results in the North Atlantic. Taken together, these results suggest that a weakening of the mean atmospheric circulation in response to anthropogenic warming will lead to fewer landfalling storms over the North Atlantic and WNP.

scholarly journals Impact of data assimilation of physical variables on the spring bloom from TOPAZ operational runs in the North Atlantic

Ocean Science ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 635-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Samuelsen ◽  
L. Bertino ◽  
C. Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Spring Bloom ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A reanalysis of the North Atlantic spring bloom in 2007 was produced using the real-time analysis from the TOPAZ North Atlantic and Arctic forecasting system. The TOPAZ system uses a hybrid coordinate general circulation ocean model and assimilates physical observations: sea surface anomalies, sea surface temperatures, and sea-ice concentrations using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. This ocean model was coupled to an ecosystem model, NORWECOM (Norwegian Ecological Model System), and the TOPAZ-NORWECOM coupled model was run throughout the spring and summer of 2007. The ecosystem model was run online, restarting from analyzed physical fields (result after data assimilation) every 7 days. Biological variables were not assimilated in the model. The main purpose of the study was to investigate the impact of physical data assimilation on the ecosystem model. This was determined by comparing the results to those from a model without assimilation of physical data. The regions of focus are the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. Assimilation of physical variables does not affect the results from the ecosystem model significantly. The differences between the weekly mean values of chlorophyll are normally within 5–10% during the summer months, and the maximum difference of ~20% occurs in the Arctic, also during summer. Special attention was paid to the nutrient input from the North Atlantic to the Nordic Seas and the impact of ice-assimilation on the ecosystem. The ice-assimilation increased the phytoplankton concentration: because there was less ice in the assimilation run, this increased both the mixing of nutrients during winter and the area where production could occur during summer. The forecast was also compared to remotely sensed chlorophyll, climatological nutrients, and in-situ data. The results show that the model reproduces a realistic annual cycle, but the chlorophyll concentrations tend to be between 0.1 and 1.0 mg chla/m3 too low during winter and spring and 1–2 mg chla/m3 too high during summer. Surface nutrients on the other hand are generally lower than the climatology throughout the year.

scholarly journals Response of Thermohaline Circulation to Freshwater Forcing under Present-Day and LGM Conditions

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2239-2258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Carrie Morrill ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Freshwater Forcing ◽  
Bering Strait Throughflow ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to freshwater forcing (hosing) in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean under present-day and the last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions are investigated using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model versions 2 and 3. Three sets of simulations are analyzed, with each set including a control run and a freshwater hosing run. The first two sets are under present-day conditions with an open and closed Bering Strait. The third one is under LGM conditions, which has a closed Bering Strait. Results show that the THC nearly collapses in all three hosing runs when the freshwater forcing is turned on. The full recovery of the THC, however, is at least a century earlier in the open Bering Strait run than the closed Bering Strait and LGM runs. This is because the excessive freshwater is diverged almost equally toward north and south from the subpolar North Atlantic when the Bering Strait is open. A significant portion of the freshwater flowing northward into the Arctic exits into the North Pacific via a reversed Bering Strait Throughflow, which accelerates the THC recovery. When the Bering Strait is closed, this Arctic to Pacific transport is absent and freshwater can only be removed through the southern end of the North Atlantic. Together with the surface freshwater excess due to precipitation, evaporation, river runoff, and melting ice in the closed Bering Strait experiments after the hosing, the removal of the excessive freshwater takes longer, and this slows the recovery of the THC. Although the background conditions are quite different between the present-day closed Bering Strait run and the LGM run, the THC responds to the freshwater forcing added in the North Atlantic in a very similar manner.

Seasonal Forecasting of Wind and Waves in the North Atlantic Using a Grand Multimodel Ensemble

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Bell ◽  
Ben Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Monte Carlo Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study assesses the skill of multimodel forecasts of 10-m wind speed, significant wave height, and mean wave period in the North Atlantic for the winter months. The 10-m winds from four North American multimodel ensemble models and three European Multimodel Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction project (EUROSIP) models are used to force WAVEWATCH III experiments. Ten ensembles are used for each model. All three variables can be predicted using December initial conditions. The spatial maps of rank probability skill score are explained by the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the large-scale wind–wave relationship. Two winter case studies are investigated to understand the relationship between large-scale environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature, geopotential height at 500 hPa, and zonal wind at 200 hPa to the NAO and the wind–wave climate. The very strong negative NAO in 2008/09 was not well forecast by any of the ensembles while most models correctly predicted the sign of the event. This led to a poor forecast of the surface wind and waves. A Monte Carlo model combination analysis is applied to understand how many models are needed for a skillful multimodel forecast. While the grand multimodel ensemble provides robust skill, in some cases skill improves once some models are not included.

scholarly journals The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5)

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Céline Heuzé ◽  
Marius Årthun
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Oceanic heat transport from the North Atlantic to the Arctic through the Nordic Seas is a key component of the climate system that has to be modelled accurately in order to predict, for example, future Arctic sea ice changes or European climate. Here we quantify biases in the climatological state and dynamics of the transport of oceanic heat into the Nordic Seas across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in 23 state-of-the-art global climate models that participated in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The mean poleward heat transport, its seasonal cycle and interannual variability are inconsistently represented across these models, with a vast majority underestimating them and a few models greatly overestimating them. The main predictor for these biases is the resolution of the model via its representation of the Greenland-Scotland ridge bathymetry: the higher the resolution, the larger the heat transport through the section. The second predictor is the large-scale ocean circulation, which is also connected to the bathymetry: models with the largest heat transport import water from the European slope current into all three straits of the Greenland-Scotland ridge, whereas those with a weak transport import water from the Labrador Sea. The third predictor is the spatial pattern of their main atmospheric modes of variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns), where the models with a weak inflow have their atmospheric low-pressure centre shifted south towards the central Atlantic. We argue that the key to a better representation of the large-scale oceanic heat transport from the North Atlantic to the Arctic in global models resides not only in higher resolution, but also in a better bathymetry and representation of the complex ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions.

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