scholarly journals Impact of geomagnetic events on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 6605-6633
Author(s):  
I. Suter ◽  
R. Zech ◽  
J. G. Anet ◽  
T. Peter
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Austral Winter ◽  
Heating Rates

Abstract. Geomagnetic events, i.e. short periods in time with much weaker geomagnetic fields and substantial changes in the position of the geomagnetic pole, occurred repeatedly in the Earth's history, e.g. the Laschamp Event about 41 kyr ago. Although the next such event is certain to come, little is known about the timing and possible consequences for the state of the atmosphere and the ecosystems. Here we use the global chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM to simulate the effects of geomagnetic events on atmospheric ionization, chemistry and dynamics. Our simulations show significantly increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the entire stratosphere, especially over Antarctica (+15%), due to enhanced ionization. Hydrogen oxides (HOx) are also produced in greater amounts (up to +40%) in the tropical and subtropical lower stratosphere, while their destruction by reactions with enhanced NOx prevails over the poles and in high altitudes (by −5%). Stratospheric ozone concentrations decrease globally above 20 km by 1–2% and at the northern hemispheric tropopause by up to 5% owing to the accelerated NOx-induced destruction. A 5% increase is found in the southern lower stratosphere and troposphere. In response to these changes in ozone and the concomitant changes in atmospheric heating rates, the Arctic vortex intensifies in boreal winter, while the Antarctic vortex weakens in austral winter and spring. Surface wind anomalies show significant intensification of the southern westerlies at their poleward edge during austral winter and a pronounced northward shift in spring. This is analogous to today's poleward shift of the westerlies due to the ozone hole. It is challenging to robustly infer precipitation changes from the wind anomalies, and it remains unclear, whether the Laschamp Event could have caused the observed glacial maxima in the southern Central Andes. Moreover, a large impact on the global climate seems unlikely.

scholarly journals Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1183-1194 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Suter ◽  
R. Zech ◽  
J. G. Anet ◽  
T. Peter
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Austral Winter

Abstract. Geomagnetic excursions, i.e. short periods in time with much weaker geomagnetic fields and substantial changes in the position of the geomagnetic pole, occurred repeatedly in the Earth's history, e.g. the Laschamp event about 41 kyr ago. Although the next such excursion is certain to come, little is known about the timing and possible consequences for the state of the atmosphere and the ecosystems. Here we use the global chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM to simulate the effects of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric ionization, chemistry and dynamics. Our simulations show significantly increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the entire stratosphere, especially over Antarctica (+15%), due to enhanced ionization by galactic cosmic rays. Hydrogen oxides (HOx) are also produced in greater amounts (up to +40%) in the tropical and subtropical lower stratosphere, while their destruction by reactions with enhanced NOx prevails over the poles and in high altitudes (by −5%). Stratospheric ozone concentrations decrease globally above 20 km by 1–2% and at the northern hemispheric tropopause by up to 5% owing to the accelerated NOx-induced destruction. A 5% increase is found in the southern lower stratosphere and troposphere. In response to these changes in ozone and the concomitant changes in atmospheric heating rates, the Arctic vortex intensifies in boreal winter, while the Antarctic vortex weakens in austral winter and spring. Surface wind anomalies show significant intensification of the southern westerlies at their poleward edge during austral winter and a pronounced northward shift in spring. Major impacts on the global climate seem unlikely.

scholarly journals Upper tropospheric water vapour variability at high latitudes – Part 1: Influence of the annular modes

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (16) ◽  
pp. 22291-22329 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Sioris ◽  
J. Zou ◽  
D. A. Plummer ◽  
C. D. Boone ◽  
C. T. McElroy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Annular Modes

Abstract. Seasonal and monthly zonal medians of water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are calculated for both Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) instruments for the northern and southern high-latitude regions (60–90 and 60–90° S). Chosen for the purpose of observing high-latitude processes, the ACE orbit provides sampling of both regions in eight of 12 months of the year, with coverage in all seasons. The ACE water vapour sensors, namely MAESTRO (Measurements of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation) and the Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) are currently the only satellite instruments that can probe from the lower stratosphere down to the mid-troposphere to study the vertical profile of the response of UTLS water vapour to the annular modes. The Arctic oscillation (AO), also known as the northern annular mode (NAM), explains 64 % (r = −0.80) of the monthly variability in water vapour at northern high-latitudes observed by ACE-MAESTRO between 5 and 7 km using only winter months (January to March 2004–2013). Using a seasonal timestep and all seasons, 45 % of the variability is explained by the AO at 6.5 ± 0.5 km, similar to the 46 % value obtained for southern high latitudes at 7.5 ± 0.5 km explained by the Antarctic oscillation or southern annular mode (SAM). A large negative AO event in March 2013 produced the largest relative water vapour anomaly at 5.5 km (+70 %) over the ACE record. A similarly large event in the 2010 boreal winter, which was the largest negative AO event in the record (1950–2015), led to > 50 % increases in water vapour observed by MAESTRO and ACE-FTS at 7.5 km.

scholarly journals Characterising the seasonal and geographical variability in tropospheric ozone, stratospheric influence and recent changes

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 3589-3620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan S. Williams ◽  
Michaela I. Hegglin ◽  
Brian J. Kerridge ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Barry G. Latter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The World

Abstract. The stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone (O3) has been a subject of much debate in recent decades but is known to have an important influence. Recent improvements in diagnostic and modelling tools provide new evidence that the stratosphere has a much larger influence than previously thought. This study aims to characterise the seasonal and geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone, its variability, and its changes and provide quantification of the stratospheric influence on these measures. To this end, we evaluate hindcast specified-dynamics chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), as contributed to the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry – Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (IGAC-SPARC) (IGAC–SPARC) Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) activity, together with satellite observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and ozone-sonde profile measurements from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) over a period of concurrent data availability (2005–2010). An overall positive, seasonally dependent bias in 1000–450 hPa (∼0–5.5 km) sub-column ozone is found for EMAC, ranging from 2 to 8 Dobson units (DU), whereas CMAM is found to be in closer agreement with the observations, although with substantial seasonal and regional variation in the sign and magnitude of the bias (∼±4 DU). Although the application of OMI averaging kernels (AKs) improves agreement with model estimates from both EMAC and CMAM as expected, comparisons with ozone-sondes indicate a positive ozone bias in the lower stratosphere in CMAM, together with a negative bias in the troposphere resulting from a likely underestimation of photochemical ozone production. This has ramifications for diagnosing the level of model–measurement agreement. Model variability is found to be more similar in magnitude to that implied from ozone-sondes in comparison with OMI, which has significantly larger variability. Noting the overall consistency of the CCMs, the influence of the model chemistry schemes and internal dynamics is discussed in relation to the inter-model differences found. In particular, it is inferred that CMAM simulates a faster and shallower Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) compared to both EMAC and observational estimates, which has implications for the distribution and magnitude of the downward flux of stratospheric ozone over the most recent climatological period (1980–2010). Nonetheless, it is shown that the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone is significant and is estimated to exceed 50 % in the wintertime extratropics, even in the lower troposphere. Finally, long-term changes in the CCM ozone tracers are calculated for different seasons. An overall statistically significant increase in tropospheric ozone is found across much of the world but particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the middle to upper troposphere, where the increase is on the order of 4–6 ppbv (5 %–10 %) between 1980–1989 and 2001–2010. Our model study implies that attribution from stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) to such ozone changes ranges from 25 % to 30 % at the surface to as much as 50 %–80 % in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) across some regions of the world, including western Eurasia, eastern North America, the South Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean. These findings highlight the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere in simulations of tropospheric ozone and its implications for the radiative forcing, air quality and oxidation capacity of the troposphere.

scholarly journals Comparison of CMAM simulations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O), and methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) with observations from Odin/SMR, ACE-FTS, and Aura/MLS

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 3233-3252 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Jin ◽  
K. Semeniuk ◽  
S. R. Beagley ◽  
V. I. Fomichev ◽  
A. I. Jonsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Negative Bias ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. Simulations of CO, N2O and CH4 from a coupled chemistry-climate model (CMAM) are compared with satellite measurements from Odin Sub-Millimeter Radiometer (Odin/SMR), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS). Pressure-latitude cross-sections and seasonal time series demonstrate that CMAM reproduces the observed global CO, N2O, and CH4 distributions quite well. Generally, excellent agreement with measurements is found between CO simulations and observations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Differences between the simulations and the ACE-FTS observations are generally within 30%, and the differences between CMAM results and SMR and MLS observations are slightly larger. These differences are comparable with the difference between the instruments in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. Comparisons of N2O show that CMAM results are usually within 15% of the measurements in the lower and middle stratosphere, and the observations are close to each other. However, the standard version of CMAM has a low N2O bias in the upper stratosphere. The CMAM CH4 distribution also reproduces the observations in the lower stratosphere, but has a similar but smaller negative bias in the upper stratosphere. The negative bias may be due to that the gravity drag is not fully resolved in the model. The simulated polar CO evolution in the Arctic and Antarctic agrees with the ACE and MLS observations. CO measurements from 2006 show evidence of enhanced descent of air from the mesosphere into the stratosphere in the Arctic after strong stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). CMAM also shows strong descent of air after SSWs. In the tropics, CMAM captures the annual oscillation in the lower stratosphere and the semiannual oscillations at the stratopause and mesopause seen in Aura/MLS CO and N2O observations and in Odin/SMR N2O observations. The Odin/SMR and Aura/MLS N2O observations also show a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the upper stratosphere, whereas, the CMAM does not have QBO included. This study confirms that CMAM is able to simulate middle atmospheric transport processes reasonably well.

scholarly journals Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 12893-12910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farahnaz Khosrawi ◽  
Oliver Kirner ◽  
Björn-Martin Sinnhuber ◽  
Sören Johansson ◽  
Michael Höpfner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Mixing Processes ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Polar Stratosphere

Abstract. The 2015/2016 Arctic winter was one of the coldest stratospheric winters in recent years. A stable vortex formed by early December and the early winter was exceptionally cold. Cold pool temperatures dropped below the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature of about 195 K, thus allowing polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) to form. The low temperatures in the polar stratosphere persisted until early March, allowing chlorine activation and catalytic ozone destruction. Satellite observations indicate that sedimentation of PSC particles led to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. Model simulations of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter nudged toward European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data were performed with the atmospheric chemistry–climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC) campaign. POLSTRACC is a High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) mission aimed at the investigation of the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, PSCs and cirrus clouds are investigated. In this study, an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter as simulated with EMAC is given. Further, chemical–dynamical processes such as denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter are investigated. Comparisons to satellite observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) as well as to airborne measurements with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) performed aboard HALO during the POLSTRACC campaign show that the EMAC simulations nudged toward ECMWF analysis generally agree well with observations. We derive a maximum polar stratospheric O3 loss of ∼ 2 ppmv or 117 DU in terms of column ozone in mid-March. The stratosphere was denitrified by about 4–8 ppbv HNO3 and dehydrated by about 0.6–1 ppmv H2O from the middle to the end of February. While ozone loss was quite strong, but not as strong as in 2010/2011, denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest observed in the Arctic stratosphere in at least the past 10 years.

scholarly journals Comparison of CMAM simulations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O), and methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) with observations from Odin/SMR, ACE-FTS, and Aura/MLS

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 13063-13123 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Jin ◽  
K. Semeniuk ◽  
S. R. Beagley ◽  
V. I. Fomichev ◽  
A. I. Jonsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Excellent Agreement ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Vertical Diffusion ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. Simulations of CO, N2O and CH4 from a coupled chemistry-climate model (CMAM) are compared with satellite measurements from Odin Sub-Millimeter Radiometer (Odin/SMR), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS). Pressure-latitude cross-sections and seasonal time series demonstrate that CMAM reproduces the observed global distributions and the polar winter time evolutions of the CO, N2O, and CH4 measurements quite well. Generally, excellent agreement with measurements is found in CO monthly zonal mean profiles in the stratosphere and mesosphere for various latitudes and seasons. The difference between the simulations and the observations are generally within 30%, which is comparable with the difference between the instruments in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. In general, the CO measurements also show an excellent agreement between themselves although MLS retrievals are noisier than other retrievals above 10 hPa (~32 km). The measurements also show large difference in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. Comparisons of N2O show that CMAM results usually have a less than 15% difference to the measurements in the lower and middle stratosphere, and the observations are consistent as well. However, the standard version of CMAM has a serious low bias in the upper stratosphere. The CMAM CH4 distribution is also close to the observations in the lower stratosphere, but has a similar but smaller negative bias in the upper stratosphere. These negative biases can be reduced by introducing a vertical diffusion coefficient related to gravity wave drag. CO measurements from 2004 and 2006 show evidence of enhanced descent of air from the mesosphere into the stratosphere in the Arctic after strong stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). CMAM also shows strong descent of air after SSWs, but further investigation is needed. In the tropics, CMAM captures the "tape recorder" (or annual oscillation) in the lower stratosphere and the semiannual oscillations (SAO) at the stratopause and mesopause shown in MLS CO and SMR N2O observations. The inter-annual variation of the SAO at the stratopause in SMR N2O observations also shows a biennial oscillation, but CMAM cannot does not reproduce this feature. However, this study confirms that CMAM is able to simulate middle atmospheric transport processes reasonably well.

Impact of ENSO on stratospheric ozone

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Benito-Barca ◽  
Natalia Calvo ◽  
Marta Abalos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Middle Latitudes

&lt;p&gt;El Ni&amp;#241;o&amp;#8208;Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main source of interannual variability in the global climate. Previous studies have shown ENSO has impacts on stratospheric ozone concentrations through changes in stratospheric circulation. The aim of this study is to extend these analysis by examining the anomalies in residual circulation and mixing associated with different El Ni&amp;#241;o flavors (Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)) and La Ni&amp;#241;a in boreal winter. For this purpose, we use four 60-year ensemble members of the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 4, reanalysis and satellite data.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Significant ozone anomalies are identified in both tropics and extratropics. In the northern high-latitudes (70-90N), significant positive ozone anomalies appear in the middle stratosphere in early winter during both CP and EP El Ni&amp;#241;o, which propagates downward during winter to the lower stratosphere only during EP-El Ni&amp;#241;o events. Anomalies during La Ni&amp;#241;a events are opposite to EP-El Ni&amp;#241;o. The analysis of the different terms in the continuity equation for zonal-mean ozone concentration reveals that Arctic ozone changes during ENSO events&amp;#160; are mainly driven by advection due to residual circulation, although contributions of mixing and chemistry are not negligible, especially in upper stratosphere.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The ENSO impact on total ozone column (TOC) is also investigated. During EP-El Ni&amp;#241;o, a significant reduction of TOC appears in the tropics and an increase in the middle latitudes. During La Ni&amp;#241;a the response is the opposite. The TOC response to CP El Ni&amp;#241;o events is not as robust. In the Northern Hemisphere polar region the TOC anomalies are not significant, probably due to its large variability associated with sudden stratospheric warmings in this region.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Diurnal variations of reactive chlorine and nitrogen oxides observed by MIPAS-B inside the January 2010 Arctic vortex

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 4867-4900
Author(s):  
G. Wetzel ◽  
H. Oelhaf ◽  
F. Friedl-Vallon ◽  
O. Kirner ◽  
A. Kleinert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Emission Spectra ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Simulated Concentration ◽  
Concentration Changes ◽  
Night And Day

Abstract. The winter 2009/2010 was characterized by a strong Arctic vortex with extremely cold mid-winter temperatures in the lower stratosphere associated with an intense activation of reactive chlorine compounds (ClOx). In order to assess the capacities of state-of-the-art chemistry models to predict polar stratospheric chemistry, stratospheric limb emission spectra were recorded during a flight of the balloon version of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS-B) from Kiruna (Sweden) on 24 January 2010 inside the Arctic vortex. Several fast limb sequences of spectra (in time steps of about 10 min) were measured from nighttime photochemical equilibrium to local noon allowing the retrieval of chlorine- and nitrogen-containing species which change quickly their concentration around the terminator between night and day. Mixing ratios of species like ClO, NO2, and N2O5 show significant changes around sunrise, which are temporally delayed due to shadowing of the lower stratosphere by upper tropospheric and polar stratospheric clouds. ClO variations were derived for the first time from MIPAS-B spectra. Daytime ClO values of up to 1.6 ppbv are visible in a broad chlorine activated layer below 26 km correlated with low values (close to zero) of its reservoir species ClONO2. Observations are compared and discussed with calculations performed with the 3-dimensional Chemistry Climate Model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). Mixing ratios of the species ClO, NO2, and N2O5 are fairly well reproduced by the model during photochemical equilibrium. However, since the model assumes cloudless illumination, simulated concentration changes around sunrise start earlier but less quickly compared to the observed variation of the species concentration.

scholarly journals Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 1679-1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Bohlinger ◽  
B.-M. Sinnhuber ◽  
R. Ruhnke ◽  
O. Kirner
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Past ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature

Abstract. Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) and models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades the reanalyses show a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer, which agree well with trends from the Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) adjusted radiosonde data set. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a residual radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons, being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, according to ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by −0.41 ± 0.11 K decade−1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model qualitatively reproduce the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from reanalyses. There are indications that this discrepancy could be partly related to a possible underestimation of past Arctic ozone trends in the models. The models project a continued cooling of the Arctic stratosphere over the coming decades (2001–2049) that is for the annual mean about 40% less than the modeled cooling for the past, due to the reduction of ozone depleting substances and the resulting ozone recovery. This projected cooling in turn could offset between 15 and 40% of the Arctic ozone recovery.

scholarly journals Upper tropospheric water vapour variability at high latitudes – Part 1: Influence of the annular modes

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 3265-3278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher E. Sioris ◽  
Jason Zou ◽  
David A. Plummer ◽  
Chris D. Boone ◽  
C. Thomas McElroy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Annular Modes

Abstract. Seasonal and monthly zonal medians of water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are calculated for both Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) instruments for the northern and southern high-latitude regions (60–90° N and 60–90° S). Chosen for the purpose of observing high-latitude processes, the ACE orbit provides sampling of both regions in 8 of 12 months of the year, with coverage in all seasons. The ACE water vapour sensors, namely MAESTRO (Measurements of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation) and the Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) are currently the only satellite instruments that can probe from the lower stratosphere down to the mid-troposphere to study the vertical profile of the response of UTLS water vapour to the annular modes. The Arctic oscillation (AO), also known as the northern annular mode (NAM), explains 64 % (r = −0.80) of the monthly variability in water vapour at northern high latitudes observed by ACE-MAESTRO between 5 and 7 km using only winter months (January to March, 2004–2013). Using a seasonal time step and all seasons, 45 % of the variability is explained by the AO at 6.5 ± 0.5 km, similar to the 46 % value obtained for southern high latitudes at 7.5 ± 0.5 km explained by the Antarctic oscillation or southern annular mode (SAM). A large negative AO event in March 2013 produced the largest relative water vapour anomaly at 5.5 km (+70 %) over the ACE record. A similarly large event in the 2010 boreal winter, which was the largest negative AO event in the record (1950–2015), led to > 50 % increases in water vapour observed by MAESTRO and ACE-FTS at 7.5 km.

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