scholarly journals Simulating and analysing climate change impacts on crop yields in Morocco using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model driven by Med-CORDEX projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iliass Loudiyi ◽  
Ingrid Jacquemin ◽  
Bernard Tychon ◽  
Louis Francois ◽  
Mouanis Lahlou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Natural Vegetation ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Soil System ◽  
Sugar Beets ◽  
Dynamic Vegetation Model

<p>Morocco, by its geographical position and its climate, is strongly affected by climate change and presents an ever-increasing vulnerability. In fact, the country's economy, being very dependent on agriculture, would be greatly affected. It is therefore necessary to further develop knowledge about climate change and strengthen forcasting systems for predicting the impacts of climate change.</p><p>The agriculture in Morocco is largely dominated by rainfed crops and therefore dependent on pluviometry.According to the report of the Moroccan Minister of Agriculture (Agriculture En Chiffres version 2019), about 59% of arable land is devoted to cereals, 16% to plantation crops (olives, almonds, citrus, grapes, dates), 5% to forage, 3% to vegetables, 5% to other crops (sugar beets, sugar cane, cotton and oilseeds), and 12% is fallow. In this project we are going to focus on cereals, olives, potatoes and sugar beets. Regarding the climate, Morocco is characterized by a wide variety of topographies ranging from mountains to plains, oasis and Saharan dunes. For this reason, the country experiences diverse climatic conditions with large spatial and intra- and inter-annual variability of precipitation. Morocco faces irregular rain patterns, cold spells and heat waves increasingly resulting in droughts, which significantly affects agriculture.</p><p>Our research, funded by a bilateral project of Wallonie-Bruxelles International, aims to study the response of Moroccan agriculture to climate change, using the dynamic vegetation model CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) developed within the Unit for Modelling of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles (UMCCB) of the University of Liège. This spatial model includes crops and natural vegetation and may react dynamically to land use changes. Originally constructed to study vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle, it includes coupled hydrological, biogeochemical, biogeographical and fire modules. These modules respectively describe the exchange of water between the atmosphere, the soil and the vegetation, the photosynthetic production and the evolution of carbon stocks and fluxes in this vegetation-soil system. The biogeographical module describes, for natural vegetation, the establishment, growth, competition, mortality, and regeneration of plant species, as well as the occurrence and propagation of fires. For crops, a specific module describes basic management (sowing, harvest, rotation) and phenological phases.   </p><p>Model simulations are performed across north-west Morocco, where the crops activities are important, by using different input data. The timeline of simulations is divided in two periods: past (from 1901 to 2018) and future (from 2019 to 2100). For the past period, we are using high resolution (30 arc sec) gridded climate data derived from WorldClim (climatology) and interpolated anomalies from Climate Research Unit CRU (trend and variability).  For the future period, we use interpolated and bias-corrected fields from a regional climate model (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative run at a spatial resolution of 12 km and for three different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).</p>

scholarly journals Cereal yield forecasting in Morocco using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model driven by HadGEM2-AO projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iliass Loudiyi ◽  
Ingrid Jacqemin ◽  
Bernard Tychon ◽  
Louis François ◽  
Mouanis Lahlou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Rooting Depth ◽  
Climatic Research Unit ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Soil System ◽  
Dynamic Vegetation Model ◽  
Cereal Production

<p>Food security, in Morocco as in many parts of the world, depends heavily on cereal production which fluctuates relying on weather conditions. In fact, Morocco has a production system for cereals which is dominated by rainfed. It is therefore necessary to further develop knowledge about climate change and strengthen forecasting systems for predicting the impacts of climate change.</p><p>Our research, funded by a bilateral project of Wallonie-Bruxelles International, aims to study the response of cereal production to climate change, using the dynamic vegetation model CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) developed within the Unit for Modelling of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles (UMCCB) of the University of Liège. This spatial model includes crops and natural vegetation and may react dynamically to land use changes. Originally constructed to study vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle, it includes coupled hydrological, biogeochemical, biogeographical and fire modules. These modules respectively describe the exchange of water between the atmosphere, the soil and the vegetation, the photosynthetic production and the evolution of carbon stocks and fluxes in this vegetation-soil system. For crops, a specific module describes basic management parameters (sowing, harvest, rotation) and phenological phases.</p><p>The simulations are performed across all Morocco using different input data. The three main cereal crops simulated include soft wheat, durum wheat and barley, they are grown in all provinces and all agro-ecological zones. Regarding climatic inputs, we’re using two sets of data: the first one is interpolated and bias-corrected fields from the climate model HadGEM2-AO for the historical period (1990-2005), in addition to three different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from 2005 to 2100. The second one is high resolution (30 arc sec) gridded climate data derived from WorldClim combined with interpolated anomalies from CRU (Climatic Research Unit) over the historical period 1990 to 2018.</p><p>After obtaining preliminary results for the past period, and in order to improve the prediction using the field data which are the observed yields, we performed a sensitivity analysis. We used the One-at-a-time (OAT) approach by moving one input variable, keeping others at their baseline (nominal) values, then, returning the variable to its nominal value, then repeating for each of the other inputs in the same way. Sensitivity may then be measured by monitoring changes in the output, using linear regression. The inputs studied are the initial value of carbon pool, leaf C/N ratio, water stress, sowing date, GDD harvest, stomatal conductance parameters, specific leaf area, and rooting depth.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review

Agronomy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tapan Pathak ◽  
Mahesh Maskey ◽  
Jeffery Dahlberg ◽  
Faith Kearns ◽  
Khaled Bali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Detailed Review ◽  
California Agriculture

California is a global leader in the agricultural sector and produces more than 400 types of commodities. The state produces over a third of the country’s vegetables and two-thirds of its fruits and nuts. Despite being highly productive, current and future climate change poses many challenges to the agricultural sector. This paper provides a summary of the current state of knowledge on historical and future trends in climate and their impacts on California agriculture. We present a synthesis of climate change impacts on California agriculture in the context of: (1) historic trends and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, snowpack, heat waves, drought, and flood events; and (2) consequent impacts on crop yields, chill hours, pests and diseases, and agricultural vulnerability to climate risks. Finally, we highlight important findings and directions for future research and implementation. The detailed review presented in this paper provides sufficient evidence that the climate in California has changed significantly and is expected to continue changing in the future, and justifies the urgency and importance of enhancing the adaptive capacity of agriculture and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Since agriculture in California is very diverse and each crop responds to climate differently, climate adaptation research should be locally focused along with effective stakeholder engagement and systematic outreach efforts for effective adoption and implementation. The expected readership of this paper includes local stakeholders, researchers, state and national agencies, and international communities interested in learning about climate change and California’s agriculture.

scholarly journals Introducing an Irrigation Scheme to a Regional Climate Model: A Case Study over West Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (15) ◽  
pp. 5708-5723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc P. Marcella ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Irrigation Scheme ◽  
Dynamic Vegetation Model ◽  
Niger River

Abstract This article presents a new irrigation scheme and biome to the dynamic vegetation model, Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), coupled to version 3 of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3-IBIS). The new land cover allows for only the plant functional type (crop) to exist in an irrigated grid cell. Irrigation water (i.e., negative runoff) is applied until the soil root zone reaches relative field capacity. The new scheme allows for irrigation scheduling (i.e., when to apply water) and for the user to determine the crop to be grown. Initial simulations show a large sensitivity of the scheme to soil texture types, how the water is applied, and the climatic conditions over the region. Application of the new scheme is tested over West Africa, specifically Mali and Niger, to simulate the potential irrigation of the Niger River. A realistic representation of irrigation of the Niger River is performed by constraining the land irrigated by the annual flow of the Niger River and the amount of arable land in the region as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). A 30-yr simulation including irrigated cropland is compared to a 30-yr simulation that is identical but with no irrigation of the Niger. Results indicate a significant greening of the irrigated land as evapotranspiration over the crop fields largely increases—mostly via increases in transpiration from plant growth. The increase in the evapotranspiration, or latent heat flux (by 65–150 W m−2), causes a significant decrease in the sensible heat flux while surface temperatures cool on average by nearly 5°C. This cooling is felt downwind, where average daily temperatures outside the irrigation are reduced by 0.5°–1.0°C. Likewise, large increases in 2-m specific humidity are experienced across the irrigated cropland (on the order of 5 g kg−1) but also extend farther north and east, reflecting the prevailing surface southwesterlies. Changes (decreases) in rainfall are found only over the irrigated lands of west Mali. The decrease in rainfall can be explained by the large surface cooling and collapse of the boundary layer (by approximately 500 m). Both lead to a reduction in the triggering of convection as the convective inhibition, or negative buoyant energy, is never breached. Nevertheless, the new scheme and land cover allows for a novel line of research that can accurately reflect the effects of irrigation on climate and the surrounding environment using a dynamic vegetation model coupled to a regional climate model.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Long-Term SOC and Crop Productivity within Conservation Systems Using GFDL CM2.1 and EPIC

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieu N. Le ◽  
Manoj K. Jha ◽  
Jaehak Jeong ◽  
Philip W. Gassman ◽  
Manuel R. Reyes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Upland Rice ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Epic Model

Will soil organic carbon (SOC) and yields increase for conservation management systems in tropical zones in response to the next 100 years? To answer the question, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to study the effects of climate change, cropping systems, conservation agriculture (CA) and conservation tillage management practices on SOC and crop productivity in Kampong Cham, Cambodia. The EPIC model was successfully calibrated and validated for crop yields, biomass, SOC and nitrogen based on field data from a five-year field experiment. Historical weather (1994–2013) was used for baseline assessment versus mid-century (2046–2064) and late-century (2081–2100) climate projections generated by the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2.1 global climate model. The simulated results showed that upland rice yield would increase the most under the B1 scenario in mid-century for all treatments, followed by soybean and maize. Cassava yield only increased under CA treatment when cultivated as a continuous primary crop. Carbon sequestration was more sensitive to cropping systems and crop rotation than climate change. The results indicated that the rotated CA primary crop (maize) systems should be prioritized for SOC sequestration as well as for increasing crop productivity. In addition, rice systems may increase SOC compared to soybean and cassava.

Climate change impact on legumes' water production function in the northeast of Iran

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 374-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Sayari ◽  
M. Bannayan ◽  
A. Alizadeh ◽  
A. Farid ◽  
M. R. Hessami Kermani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Northeast Iran ◽  
Far Future

Enhanced understanding of the climate impact on crops' production is necessary to cope with expected climate variability and change. This study was conducted to find any robust association between crop yield and evapotranspiration using historical data (1986–2005) and subsequently employ the acquired relationship to project crop yield under future climate conditions for two agricultural centers in northeast Iran. Three legume crops of chickpea, lentil, and bean were selected in this study. The future precipitation and temperature data were projected by downscaling outputs of global climate model HadCM3 (A2 scenario) by LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The data were downscaled for the baseline (1961–1990) and two time periods (2011–2030 and 2080–2099) as near and far future conditions. Projected temperature under A2 scenario showed increasing trend changed from 4 to 26% during the legumes' growth period compared to baseline. In addition, projected annual precipitation change was between −14 and 10% range under different time periods in contrast to baseline. There was a nonlinear relationship between crop yields and the seasonal values of crop evapotranspiration for all crops. The results showed that seasonal evapotranspiration would increase under climate change conditions across study locations. Crop yield would also increase for chickpea but not for lentil and bean for the far future in Sabzevar location compared to baseline. In conclusion, increasing the temperature and decreasing the precipitation may have a negative effect on legumes' yield in northeast Iran, especially for far future conditions. Therefore, planning effective adaptation and mitigation strategies would be necessary for northeast Iran.

Climate change and human health

2021 ◽  
pp. 193-212
Author(s):  
Alistair Woodward ◽  
Alex Macmillan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Distinctive Features ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Health Response ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Global Systems

Climate change belongs in a new category of global environmental health problems. It is not just that the impacts are widely distributed: climate change is a result of unbalanced global systems. It is one of the modern threats to a ‘safe operating space’ for the planet. The effects on health occur directly, such as increased heat waves; through pressures on natural systems (reduced crop yields and undernutrition, for instance); and, as a consequence of social disruption. Also there may be impacts due to policy responses to climate change: these are so-called ‘transition risks’. Improving baseline health status is fundamental to coping with climate change, because the populations that are most seriously affected are those that already bear a heavy burden of disease. But an undifferentiated public health response is not sufficient. There are distinctive features of climate change that have to be taken into account. Mitigation, or primary prevention, will require rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse emissions if global heating is to be limited. The goal is to identify common solutions, responses to climate change that are health-enhancing rather than health damaging. There are many candidates, but by and large they are not on the path of ‘business as usual’ development.

Climate change impacts on European wheat and maize yields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Andrej Ceglar ◽  
Frank Dentener ◽  
Davide Fumagalli ◽  
Simona Bassu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Crop yields are influenced and affected by climate conditions and the occurrence of extreme events in critical phenological phases during the growing season. As projected climate change for Europe points to an increase of climate extremes as well as a significant warming together with changes in precipitation regimes, it is essential to assess impacts on key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. Here, we analyse European wheat and maize yields as projected by a crop model driven by bias-adjusted Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The main findings highlight as maize will be the most affected crop with limited effects of simple adaptation strategies; while a north-south dipole in the projected changes characterizes wheat yields. In the wheat regions negatively affected by climate change, adaptation strategies will play a key role in counterbalancing the impacts of the projected changes. </p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Local Climate Change: Historical Trends and RCM Multi-Model Projections Over the Salento Area (Italy)

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco D’Oria ◽  
Maria Tanda ◽  
Valeria Todaro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Local Climate

This study provides an up-to-date analysis of climate change over the Salento area (southeast Italy) using both historical data and multi-model projections of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The accumulated anomalies of monthly precipitation and temperature records were analyzed and the trends in the climate variables were identified and quantified for two historical periods. The precipitation trends are in almost all cases not significant while the temperature shows statistically significant increasing tendencies especially in summer. A clear changing point around the 80s and at the end of the 90s was identified by the accumulated anomalies of the minimum and maximum temperature, respectively. The gradual increase of the temperature over the area is confirmed by the climate model projections, at short—(2016–2035), medium—(2046–2065) and long-term (2081–2100), provided by an ensemble of 13 RCMs, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the models agree that the mean temperature will rise over this century, with the highest increases in the warm season. The total annual rainfall is not expected to significantly vary in the future although systematic changes are present in some months: a decrease in April and July and an increase in November. The daily temperature projections of the RCMs were used to identify potential variations in the characteristics of the heat waves; an increase of their frequency is expected over this century.

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