Climate change impact on legumes' water production function in the northeast of Iran

Enhanced understanding of the climate impact on crops' production is necessary to cope with expected climate variability and change. This study was conducted to find any robust association between crop yield and evapotranspiration using historical data (1986–2005) and subsequently employ the acquired relationship to project crop yield under future climate conditions for two agricultural centers in northeast Iran. Three legume crops of chickpea, lentil, and bean were selected in this study. The future precipitation and temperature data were projected by downscaling outputs of global climate model HadCM3 (A2 scenario) by LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The data were downscaled for the baseline (1961–1990) and two time periods (2011–2030 and 2080–2099) as near and far future conditions. Projected temperature under A2 scenario showed increasing trend changed from 4 to 26% during the legumes' growth period compared to baseline. In addition, projected annual precipitation change was between −14 and 10% range under different time periods in contrast to baseline. There was a nonlinear relationship between crop yields and the seasonal values of crop evapotranspiration for all crops. The results showed that seasonal evapotranspiration would increase under climate change conditions across study locations. Crop yield would also increase for chickpea but not for lentil and bean for the far future in Sabzevar location compared to baseline. In conclusion, increasing the temperature and decreasing the precipitation may have a negative effect on legumes' yield in northeast Iran, especially for far future conditions. Therefore, planning effective adaptation and mitigation strategies would be necessary for northeast Iran.

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Evaluation of Long-Term SOC and Crop Productivity within Conservation Systems Using GFDL CM2.1 and EPIC

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10082665 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 2665 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Kieu N. Le ◽

Manoj K. Jha ◽

Jaehak Jeong ◽

Philip W. Gassman ◽

Manuel R. Reyes ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Practices ◽

Climate Model ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Upland Rice ◽

Cropping Systems ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Epic Model

Will soil organic carbon (SOC) and yields increase for conservation management systems in tropical zones in response to the next 100 years? To answer the question, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to study the effects of climate change, cropping systems, conservation agriculture (CA) and conservation tillage management practices on SOC and crop productivity in Kampong Cham, Cambodia. The EPIC model was successfully calibrated and validated for crop yields, biomass, SOC and nitrogen based on field data from a five-year field experiment. Historical weather (1994–2013) was used for baseline assessment versus mid-century (2046–2064) and late-century (2081–2100) climate projections generated by the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2.1 global climate model. The simulated results showed that upland rice yield would increase the most under the B1 scenario in mid-century for all treatments, followed by soybean and maize. Cassava yield only increased under CA treatment when cultivated as a continuous primary crop. Carbon sequestration was more sensitive to cropping systems and crop rotation than climate change. The results indicated that the rotated CA primary crop (maize) systems should be prioritized for SOC sequestration as well as for increasing crop productivity. In addition, rice systems may increase SOC compared to soybean and cassava.

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Impacts of climate and catastrophic forest changes on streamflow and water balance in a mountainous headwater stream in Southern Alberta

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-4941-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (12) ◽

pp. 4941-4956 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

V. Mahat ◽

A. Anderson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Similar Amount ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Precipitation Decrease ◽

Southern Alberta

Abstract. Rivers in Southern Alberta are vulnerable to climate change because much of the river water originates as snow in the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains. Changes in likelihood of forest disturbance (wildfire, insects, logging, etc.) may also have impacts that are compounded by climate change. This study evaluates the impacts of climate and forest changes on streamflow in the upper parts of the Oldman River in Southern Alberta using a conceptual hydrological model, HBV-EC (Hydrologiska Byråns attenbalansavdelning, Environment Canada), in combination with a stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG) driven by GCM (global climate model) output climate data. Three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) are selected to cover the range of possible future climate conditions (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). The GCM projected less than a 10% increase in precipitation in winter and a similar amount of precipitation decrease in summer. These changes in projected precipitation resulted in up to a 200% (9.3 mm) increase in winter streamflow in February and up to a 63% (31.2 mm) decrease in summer flow in June. Flow also decreased in July and August, when irrigation is important; these reduced river flows during this season could impact agriculture production. The amplification in the streamflow is mostly driven by the projected increase in temperature that is predicted to melt winter snow earlier, resulting in lower water availability during the summer. Uncertainty analysis was completed using a guided GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) approach to obtain the best 100 parameter sets and associated ranges of streamflows. The impacts of uncertainty in streamflows were higher in spring and summer than in winter and fall. Forest change compounded the climate change impact by increasing the winter flow; however, it did not reduce the summer flow.

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Climatic impacts on water resources in a tropical catchment in Uganda and adaptation measures proposed by resident stakeholders

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-02958-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 164 (1-2) ◽

Author(s):

Bano Mehdi ◽

Julie Dekens ◽

Mathew Herrnegger

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

The Mean ◽

The Impact ◽

Far Future

AbstractThe Ruhezamyenda catchment in Uganda includes a unique lake, Lake Bunyonyi, and is threatened by increasing social and environmental pressures. The COSERO hydrological model was used to assess the impact of climate change on future surface runoff and evapotranspiration in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment (381 km2). The model was forced with an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) simulations for the mid-term future (2041–2070) and for the far future (2071–2100), each with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the Ruhezamyenda catchment, compared to 1971–2000, the median of all GCMs (for both RCPs) showed the mean monthly air temperature to increase by approximately 1.5 to 3.0 °C in the mid-term future and by roughly 2.0 to 4.5 °C in the far future. The mean annual precipitation is generally projected to increase, with future changes between − 25 and + 75% (RCP8.5). AET in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment was simulated to increase for the future by approximately + 8 mm/month in the median of all GCMs for RCP8.5 for the far future. The runoff for future periods showed much uncertainty, but with an overall increasing trend. A combination of no-regrets adaptation options in the five categories of: governance; communication and capacity development; water, soil, land management and livelihoods improvement; data management; and research, was identified and validated with stakeholders, who also identified additional adaptation actions based on the model results. This study contributes to improving scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on water resources in Uganda with the purpose to support adaptation.

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Impacts of climate and forest changes on streamflow and water balance in a mountainous headwater stream in Southern Alberta

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-8503-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 8503-8536 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

V. Mahat ◽

A. Anderson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Similar Amount ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Precipitation Decrease ◽

Southern Alberta

Abstract. Rivers in Southern Alberta are vulnerable to climate change because much of the river water originates as snow in the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains. Changes in likelihood of forest disturbance (wildfire, insects, logging, etc.) may also have impacts that are compounded by climate change. This study evaluates the impacts of climate and forest changes on streamflow in the upper parts of the Oldman River in Southern Alberta using a conceptual hydrological model, HBV-EC in combination with a stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG) driven by GCM (Global Climate Model) output climate data. Three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) are selected to cover the range of possible future climate conditions (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). GCM projected less than a 10% increase in precipitation in winter and a similar amount of precipitation decrease in summer. These changes in projected precipitation resulted in up to a 200% (9.3 mm) increase in winter streamflow in February and up to a 63% (31.2 mm) decrease in summer flow in June. This amplification is mostly driven by the projected increase in temperature that is predicted to melt winter snow earlier, possibly resulting in lower water availability in the snowmelt dominated regions during the summer. Uncertainty analysis was completed using a guided GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) approach to obtain the best 100 parameter sets and associated ranges of streamflows. The impacts of uncertainty were higher in spring and summer flows than in winter and fall flows. Forest change compounded the climate change impact by increasing winter flow; however, it did not reduce the summer flow.

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Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12020172 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 172

Author(s):

Yuan Xu ◽

Jieming Chou ◽

Fan Yang ◽

Mingyang Sun ◽

Weixing Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climatic Data ◽

The South ◽

The North ◽

Output Elasticity ◽

The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

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Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

Communications Biology ◽

10.1038/s42003-021-01665-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Julián A. Velasco ◽

Francisco Estrada ◽

Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽

Didier Swingedouw ◽

Carolina Ureta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Thermohaline Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Amphibian Species ◽

Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

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High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-13-0153.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 1517-1531 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Gerhard Smiatek ◽

Harald Kunstmann ◽

Andreas Heckl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Water Availability ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Model ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Full Range ◽

The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

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Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13122249 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (12) ◽

pp. 2249

Author(s):

Sadia Alam Shammi ◽

Qingmin Meng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Information Criterion ◽

Growing Season ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Linear Regression Models ◽

The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

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Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859616000654 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 155 (3) ◽

pp. 407-420 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

R. S. SILVA ◽

L. KUMAR ◽

F. SHABANI ◽

M. C. PICANÇO

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Open Field ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Current Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

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Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli8120139 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 139

Author(s):

Manashi Paul ◽

Sijal Dangol ◽

Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽

Amy R. Sapkota ◽

Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Swat Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Watershed ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

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