An application of super ensemble simulation with appropriate bias correction for river planning in Japan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoshi Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Conventional Approach ◽  
Ensemble Simulation ◽  
Class A ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

<p>In this study, a methodology that uses super ensemble simulation with appropriate bias correction for river planning was proposed. The Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF) is a super ensemble experiments that comprise over 1000-year output have been conducted. The d4PDF provides regional downscaling simulation that focuses around Japan. It is expected that the impact assessments of climate changes on various fields considering uncertainly are conducted.</p><p>The impact of climate change on floods is a serious issue. In Japan, all class A river has design rainfall for the river planning that is defined considering historical observations of precipitation that happens once in several hundred years, which the planning year is different depending on the situation of a river. The design rainfall provides the fundamental information for planning river management.  The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism defines the value of the rainfall in the planning year in each class A river basin by considering the hydro-meteorological and social characteristics of each basin. As the design rainfall was defined in the mid-1900s for most of the rivers, the method to estimate precipitation in the planning year was conducted with limited observation data using extreme statistical value. The super ensemble simulation data is expected to contribute for the decision making with appropriate setting of design rainfall.</p><p>We proposed a method to correct the bias of super ensemble simulation and estimated the design rainfall in 47 river basins selected from class A river basins. The estimated design rainfall was compared between the one estimated with super ensemble simulation and the one estimated with conventional approach. The spread of results oriented from super ensemble simulation indicated that uncertainly of design rainfall estimated with conventional approach was so high that the consideration of uncertainty is necessary for river planning. The experiments indicated that the use of super ensemble simulation with appropriate bias correction could provide knowledge that aids us in understanding the hydrological extremes.</p>

Bias correction of extreme values of high resolution climate simulations for risk analysis.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
luis Augusto sanabria ◽  
Xuerong Qin ◽  
Jin Li ◽  
Robert Peter Cechet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
The Body ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Most climatic models show that climate change affects natural perils' frequency and severity. Quantifying the impact of future climate conditions on natural hazard is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning. One crucial factor to consider when using climate simulations projections is the inherent systematic differences (bias) of the modelled data compared with observations. This bias can originate from the modelling process, the techniques used for downscaling of results, and the ensembles' intrinsic variability. Analysis of climate simulations has shown that the biases associated with these data types can be significant. Hence, it is often necessary to correct the bias before the data can be reliably used for further analysis. Natural perils are often associated with extreme climatic conditions. Analysing trends in the tail end of distributions are already complicated because noise is much more prominent than that in the mean climate. The bias of the simulations can introduce significant errors in practical applications. In this paper, we present a methodology for bias correction of climate simulated data. The technique corrects the bias in both the body and the tail of the distribution (extreme values). As an illustration, maps of the 50 and 100-year Return Period of climate simulated Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) in Australia are presented and compared against the corresponding observation-based maps. The results show that the algorithm can substantially improve the calculation of simulation-based Return Periods. Forthcoming work will focus on the impact of climate change on these Return Periods considering future climate conditions.

scholarly journals Integrated assessment of impact of water resources of important river basins in Eastern India under projected climate conditions

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-606 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Eastern India ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>The impact of climate change on water resources through increased evaporation combined with regional changes in precipitation characteristics has the potential to affect mean runoff, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture and water supply for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) system is the largest in India with a catchment area of about 110Mha, which is more than 43% of the cumulative catchment area of all the major rivers in the country. The river Damodar is an important sub catchment of GBM basin and its three tributaries- the Bokaro, the Konar and the Barakar form one important tributary of the Bhagirathi-Hughli (a tributary of Ganga) in its lower reaches. The present study is an attempt to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources of the four important Eastern River Basins namely Damodar, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi and Ajoy, which have immense importance in industrial and agricultural scenarios in eastern India. A distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) has been used on the four river basins using HadRM2 daily weather data for the period from 2041 to 2060 to predict the impact of climate change on water resources of these river systems.&nbsp;</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

scholarly journals Using building adaptation to deliver sustainability in Australia

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara J. Wilkinson ◽  
Kimberley James ◽  
Richard Reed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Office Building ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Building Adaptation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Decision Making Tool

PurposeThis paper seeks to establish the rationale for existing office building adaptation within Melbourne, Australia, as the city strives to become carbon neutral by 2020. The problems faced by policy makers to determine which buildings have the optimum adaptation potential are to be identified and discussed.Design/methodology/approachThis research adopts the approach of creating a database of all the buildings in the Melbourne CBD including details of physical, social, economic and technological attributes. This approach will determine whether relationships exist between attributes and the frequency of building adaptation or whether triggers to adaptation can be determined.FindingsThis research provided evidence that a much faster rate of office building adaptation is necessary to meet the targets already set for carbon neutrality. The findings demonstrate that a retrospective comprehensive examination of previous adaptation in the CBD is a unique and original approach to determining the building characteristics associated with adaptation and whether triggers can be identified based on previous practices. The implication is that a decision‐making tool should be developed to allow policy makers to target sectors of the office building stock to deliver carbon neutrality within the 2020 timeframe.Practical implicationsDrastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate global warming and climate change and all stakeholders should be looking at ways of reducing emissions from existing stock.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the existing body of knowledge by raising awareness of the way in which the adaptation of large amounts of existing stock can be fast tracked to mitigate the impact of climate change and warming associated with the built environment, and in addition it establishes a framework for a decision‐making tool for policy makers.

scholarly journals Selection of Bias Correction Methods to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Curves

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Soriano ◽  
Luis Mediero ◽  
Carlos Garijo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flood Quantiles ◽  
The Impact

Climate projections provided by EURO-CORDEX predict changes in annual maximum series of daily rainfall in the future in some areas of Spain because of climate change. Precipitation and temperature projections supplied by climate models do not usually fit exactly the statistical properties of the observed time series in the control period. Bias correction methods are used to reduce such errors. This paper seeks to find the most adequate bias correction techniques for temperature and precipitation projections that minimizes the errors between observations and climate model simulations in the control period. Errors in flood quantiles are considered to identify the best bias correction techniques, as flood quantiles are used for hydraulic infrastructure design and safety assessment. In addition, this study aims to understand how the expected changes in precipitation extremes and temperature will affect the catchment response in flood events in the future. Hydrological modelling is required to characterize rainfall-runoff processes adequately in a changing climate, in order to estimate flood changes expected in the future. Four catchments located in the central-western part of Spain have been selected as case studies. The HBV hydrological model has been calibrated in the four catchments by using the observed precipitation, temperature and streamflow data available on a daily scale. Rainfall has been identified as the most significant input to the model, in terms of its influence on flood response. The quantile mapping polynomial correction has been found to be the best bias correction method for precipitation. A general reduction in flood quantiles is expected in the future, smoothing the increases identified in precipitation quantiles by the reduction of soil moisture content in catchments, due to the expected increase in temperature and decrease in mean annual precipitations.

Situation Awareness and the Decision-Making Process in a Dynamic Situation: Avoiding Collisions at Sea

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Chauvin ◽  
J. P. Clostermann ◽  
Jean-Michel Hoc
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Situation Awareness ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Secondary Importance ◽  
Training Course ◽  
Training Facility ◽  
Level 1 ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

In this study, the authors aim to determine the impact of situation awareness (SA) in the decision-making process of “young” watch officers of a Merchant Marine training facility. The trainees were shown an ambiguous interaction situation in which they could choose among several actions. The results show that Level 1 SA (perception of the elements in the environment) tends to be of secondary importance in decision making. The major variables of the decision-making process are the interpretation of the rules and anticipation of the other vessel's intentions. Moreover, four different trainee “profiles” emerged. The main difference between them lies in the distance at which they decided to change course, the direction of this maneuver (port or starboard), the way in which they interpreted the other vessel's intentions (is it going to change course?), and whether the trainees referred to the rules. Of the trainees, 55% performed a maneuver that was against regulations, and 34% did so in an unsafe manner. This result provides an incentive to rethink the training course to put more stress on recognizing prototypical situations and choosing which actions to take in situations such as the one presented here.

scholarly journals The Ethical Matrix as a Tool for Decision-Making Process in Conservation

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierfrancesco Biasetti ◽  
Barbara de Mori
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ethical Analysis ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Value Judgments ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Ethical Assessment ◽  
Ethical Matrix ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Decision making-process in conservation can be very complex, having to deal with various value dimensions and potential conflicts. In fact, conflicts and competing interests between stakeholders are among the most quoted reasons for failure of projects. Ethical analysis can be helpful in this regard. In this paper we present a revision of the Ethical Matrix specifically tailored to decision-making processes in conservation. The Ethical Matrix is a conceptual tool devised to help decision-makers by supplying them with a framework of the ethically relevant aspects involved in decision-making process. It was originally developed for the ethical assessment of agri-food biotechnologies and later has been applied to other fields. The revised version we propose here has been designed for the ethical analysis of conservation priority-setting and impact. As conservation can raise many ethical relevant controversies, conceptual tools like the one presented here can be of help for conservationists, providing a map of the value demands involved. This map can be used to question the reasonableness of the value judgments, estimate the impact of different courses of actions, anticipate conflicts, and rank their severeness.

scholarly journals Evaluation of drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 13231-13249 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Joetzjer ◽  
H. Douville ◽  
C. Delire ◽  
P. Ciais ◽  
B. Decharme ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The present study compares three meteorological drought indices (scPDSI, SPI and SPEI respectively) and their ability to account for the variations of annual mean river discharge on both interannual and climate change timescales. The Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) is used as a proxy of river discharge. The Mississippi and Amazon river basins provide two contrasted testbeds for this analysis. All meteorological drought indices are derived from monthly 2-meter temperature and/or precipitation, using either gridded observations or outputs of a global climate model. The SPI based solely on precipitation is not outperformed by the SPEI (accounting for potential evapotranspiration) and the scPDSI (based on a simplified water balance) at detecting interannual SRI variations. Under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the simulated response of the areal fraction in drought is highly index-dependent, suggesting that more physical water balance models are needed to account for the impact of global warming on hydrological droughts.

scholarly journals QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL BY THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE TRANSFORMATION ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE RIVERS OF GEORGIA

World Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (10(50)) ◽  
pp. 4-9
Author(s):  
Grigol Khelidze ◽  
Lena Shatakishvili ◽  
Bachana Pipia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Transformation Process ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the work is the quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on the runoff of the rivers of Georgia and, consequently, on their hydropower potential. To this end, the sections of 19 river basins located in six regions of Georgia, where natural runoff is maintained, have been reviewed – it is not regulated. The results of the study confirm the change of the water content of the selected rivers and hence their hydro- energy potential, which is related to the climate transformation process.

Examination of Decision Making and Botched Lethal Injection Executions in Texas

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (12) ◽  
pp. 1715-1732
Author(s):  
Talia Roitberg Harmon ◽  
Michael Cassidy ◽  
Richelle Kloch
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Death Penalty ◽  
Single Drug ◽  
Lethal Injection ◽  
Injection Protocol ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Analyze Data

This research examines the influence of lethal injection drug shortages on Texas criminal justice officials’ decision to change the state’s three-drug lethal injection protocol to the use of pentobarbital as a single drug protocol, without judicial oversight. We analyze data collected under the three- and one-drug protocols from 1982 through 2020 and compare differences in the length of time the lethal injection took, and complications reported by media witnesses. Findings suggest a higher rate of botched executions under the one-drug protocol than the three-drug protocol. We discuss the role compounding pharmacies may play in our results, the impact of this work on the U.S. Supreme Court’s death penalty jurisprudence, and implications concerning the unilateral decision making by Texas state officials.

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