Evaluation of next day fog forecast over Namibia using the WRF model

Author(s):  
Michael Weston ◽  
Stuart Piketh ◽  
Paola Formenti ◽  
Stephen Brocardo ◽  
Hendrik Andersen ◽  
...  

<p>The Namibian coast line experiences fog when moist air from the southeast Atlantic is advected<br>over the desert landscape. We run the WRF model with the Thompson (2008) microphysics scheme,<br>with a default CCN number concentration of 100 cm-1, to forecast next day fog over the Namib<br>desert. Model output of liquid water content at the lowest level in the atmosphere is used to<br>represent fog and is evaluated against in situ observations of visibility and satellite products of<br>fog/low stratus. Preliminary results indicate that the model captures the spatial pattern of fog<br>excellently, however, the model over predicts fog occurrence. These results serve as the control run<br>for a future model sensitivity study.</p>

2002 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 1891-1898 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Gultepe ◽  
G. A. Isaac ◽  
S. G. Cober

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to better understand how cloud microphysical characteristics such as liquid water content (LWC) and droplet number concentration (Nd) change with temperature (T). The in situ observations were collected during three research projects including: the Radiation, Aerosol, and Cloud Experiment (RACE) which took place over the Bay of Fundy and Central Ontario during August 1995, the First International Regional Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE.ACE) which took place in the Arctic Ocean during April 1998, and the Alliance Icing Research Study (AIRS) which took place in the Ontario region during the winter of 1999–2000. The RACE, FIRE.ACE, and AIRS projects represent summer mid-latitude clouds, Arctic clouds, and mid-latitude winter clouds, respectively. A LWC threshold of 0.005 g m-3 was used for this study. Similar to other studies, LWC was observed to decrease with decreasing T. The LWC-T relationship was similar for all projects, although the range of T conditions for each project was substantially different, and the variability of LWC within each project was considerable. Nd also decreased with decreasing T, and a parameterization for Nd versus T is suggested that may be useful for modeling studies.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (cloud physics and chemistry) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; general circulation)


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ju-Mee Ryoo ◽  
Sen Chiao ◽  
J. Ryan Spackman ◽  
Laura T. Iraci ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
...  

AbstractWe examine thermodynamic and kinematic structures of terrain trapped airflows (TTAs) during an atmospheric river (AR) event impacting Northern California 10–11 March 2016 using Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) aircraft data, in situ observations, and Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations. TTAs are identified by locally intensified low-level winds flowing parallel to the coastal ranges and having maxima over the near-coastal waters. Multiple mechanisms can produce TTAs, including terrain blocking and gap flows. The changes in winds can significantly alter the distribution, timing, and intensity of precipitation. We show here how different mechanisms producing TTAs evolve during this event and influence local precipitation variations. Three different periods are identified from the time-varying wind fields. During period 1 (P1), a TTA develops during synoptic-scale onshore flow that backs to southerly flow near the coast. This TTA occurs when the Froude number (Fr) is less than 1, suggesting low-level terrain blocking is the primary mechanism. During period 2 (P2), a Petaluma offshore gap flow develops, with flows turning parallel to the coast offshore and with Fr > 1. Periods P1 and P2 are associated with slightly more coastal than mountain precipitation. In period 3 (P3), the gap flow initiated during P2 merges with a pre-cold-frontal low-level jet (LLJ) and enhanced precipitation shifts to higher mountain regions. Dynamical mixing also becomes more important as the TTA becomes confluent with the approaching LLJ. The different mechanisms producing TTAs and their effects on precipitation pose challenges to observational and modeling systems needed to improve forecasts and early warnings of AR events.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (21) ◽  
pp. 30211-30267 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Korolev ◽  
A. Khain ◽  
M. Pinsky ◽  
J. French

Abstract. Relationships between basic microphysical parameters are studied within the framework of homogeneous and extreme inhomogeneous mixing. Analytical expressions and numerical simulations of relationships between droplet concentration, extinction coefficient, liquid water content, and mean volume droplet size, formed at the final stage of mixing are presented. The expressions are used to identify type of mixing for in-situ observations obtained in convective clouds. The analysis suggests that for the set of observations investigated here, the interaction between cloudy and entrained environments is dominated by inhomogeneous mixing. Lastly, an analysis of different response times of the cloud environment undergoing mixing is presented. Comparisons of different characteristic times suggest that within the same mixing environment depending on mixing fraction some volumes may be dominated by homogeneous mixing whereas others by inhomogeneous mixing.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Petzold ◽  
Ulrich Bundke ◽  
Marcel Berg ◽  
Rita Gomes ◽  
Jim Haywood ◽  
...  

<p>IAGOS (In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System; www.iagos.org) is a European Research Infrastructure which uses passenger aircraft equipped with autonomous instrumentation for the continuous and global-scale observation of atmospheric composition in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UT/LS; see Petzold et al., 2015). Among others, IAGOS provides today detailed information on atmospheric trace species by the flying laboratory in IAGOS-CARIBIC. Since July 2018, number concentration and fraction of non-volatile particles for d<sub>p</sub> > 15 nm as well as size distributions for d<sub>p</sub> >  250 nm are measured (Bundke et al., 2015). Since lately, aerosol chemical composition is provided as well (Schulz et al., 2020). IAGOS-CARIBIC flight routes covered during the period from July 2018 to March 2020 include regular flights from Munich, Germany, to North America, East Asia and South Africa.</p><p>On 22 June 2019, the Raikoke Volcano on the Kuril Islands erupted and transported vast amounts of gaseous and particulate matter into the UT/LS. Two months after the eruption CALIPSO observed enhanced aerosol optical depth and aerosol scattering across the entire lower stratosphere. IAGOS-CARIBIC conducted several flight series in the Northern Hemisphere before and after the eruption phase such that the pre- and post-eruption data provide profound information on the impact of the Raikoke eruption on the Northern Hemisphere UT/LS aerosol and the evolution of the plume during 9 months of regular observation.</p><p>Data indicate an increase in the number concentration of particles with d<sub>p</sub> > 250 nm by a factor of 10 across the entire sampled altitude range, while the increase of the total aerosol number concentration (d<sub>p</sub><sub> </sub>> 15 nm) is less pronounced but also significant. We present a detailed analysis of the changes in UT/LS aerosol load and properties caused by the Raikoke eruption, including the temporal evolution of the aerosol plume during 9 months past the eruption. In-situ observations are backed-up by CALIPSO products and results from associated volcanic plume modelling studies deploying the UK Earth System Model UKESM1.</p><p>The authors gratefully acknowledge the continuous support of IAGOS by Deutsche Lufthansa. Without their commitment these observations would not have been possible. Parts of this study were funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) under Grant No. 01LK1301A as part of the joint research programme IAGOS Germany.</p><p>Bundke, U., et al. (2015) Tellus B 67, 28339 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v67.28339.</p><p>Petzold, A., et al. (2015) Tellus B 67, 28452 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v67.28452.</p><p>Schulz, C., et al. (2020) EAC 2020 Abstract <span>ID 1258</span></p>


2021 ◽  
pp. 107-111
Author(s):  
M. V. Shatalina ◽  
◽  
N. V. Il’in ◽  
E. A. Mareev ◽  
◽  
...  

The characteristics of hazardous meteorological phenomena in Nizhny Novgorod city based on the electric field observations are obtained in the present paper. As a result of the analysis of quasistationary electric field variation experimental data together with the meteorological data, statistics of thunderstorm events were obtained and their classification was carried out. The data of field observations are compared with the results of numerical calculations based on the WRF model.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 24087-24118 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Takeishi ◽  
T. Storelvmo

Abstract. An increase in atmospheric aerosol loading could alter the microphysics, dynamics, and radiative characteristics of deep convective clouds. Earlier modeling studies have shown that the effects of increased aerosols on the amount of precipitation from deep convective clouds are model-dependent. This study aims to understand the effects of increased aerosol loading on a deep convective cloud throughout its lifetime with the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a cloud-resolving model (CRM). It simulates an idealized supercell thunderstorm with 8 different aerosol loadings, for three different cloud microphysics schemes. Variation in aerosol concentration is mimicked by varying either cloud droplet number concentration or the number of activated cloud condensation nuclei. We show that the sensitivity to aerosol loading is dependent on the choice of microphysics scheme. For the schemes that are sensitive to aerosols loading, the production of graupel via riming of snow is the key factor determining the precipitation response. The formulation of snow riming depends on the microphysics scheme and is usually a function of two competing effects, the size effect and the number effect. In many simulations, a decrease in riming is seen with increased aerosol loading, due to the decreased droplet size that lowers the riming efficiency drastically. This decrease in droplet size also results in a delay in the onset of precipitation, as well as so-called warm rain suppression. Although these characteristics of convective invigoration (Rosenfeld et al., 2008) are seen in the first few hours of the simulations, variation in the accumulated precipitation mainly stems from graupel production rather than convective invigoration. These results emphasize the importance of accurate representations of graupel formation in microphysics schemes.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Lin ◽  
Yuan Wang ◽  
Bowen Pan ◽  
Jiaxi Hu ◽  
Song Guo ◽  
...  

Abstract. Severe regional haze events, which are characterized by exceedingly high levels of fine particulate matter (PM), occur frequently in many developing countries (such as China and India), with profound implications for human health, weather, and climate. The occurrence of the haze extremes involves a complex interplay between primary emissions, secondary formation, and conducive meteorological conditions, and the relative contributions of the various processes remains unclear. Here we investigated severe regional haze episodes in 2013 over the Northern China Plain (NCP), by evaluating the PM production and the interactions between elevated PM and the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Analysis of the ground-based measurements and satellite observations of PM properties shows nearly synchronized temporal PM variations among the three megacities (Beijing, Baoding, and Shijiazhuang) in this region and a coincidence of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) hotspots with the three megacities during the polluted period. During the clean-to-hazy transition, the measured oxygenated organic aerosol concentration ([OOA]) well correlates with the odd-oxygen concentration ([Ox] = [O3] + [NO2]), and the mean [OOA]/[Ox] ratio in Beijing is much larger than those in other megacities (such as Mexico City and Houston), indicating highly efficient photochemical activity. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with an explicit aerosol radiative module reveal that strong aerosol-PBL interaction during the polluted period results in a suppressed and stabilized PBL and elevated humidity, triggering a positive feedback to amplify the haze severity at the ground level. Model sensitivity study illustrates the importance of black carbon (BC) in the haze-PBL interaction and the aerosol regional climatic effect, contributing to more than 30 % of the PBL collapse and about half of the positive radiative forcing on the top of the atmosphere. Overall, severe regional haze exhibits strong negative radiative forcing (cooling) of −63 to −88 W m−2 at the surface and strong positive radiative forcing (warming) of 57 to 82 W m−2 in the atmosphere, with a slightly negative net radiative forcing of about −6 W m−2 on the top of the atmosphere. Our work establishes a synthetic view for the dominant regional features during severe haze events, unraveling rapid in-situ PM production and inefficient transport, both of which are amplified by atmospheric stagnation. On the other hand, regional transport sufficiently disperses gaseous aerosol precursors (e.g., sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and ammonia) during the clean period, which subsequently result in rapid in-situ PM production via photochemistry during the transition period and via multiphase chemistry during the polluted period. Our findings also highlight the co-benefits for reduction in BC emissions, which not only improve local and regional air quality by minimizing air stagnation, but also mitigate the global warming by alleviating the positive direct radiative forcing.


2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (12) ◽  
pp. 2445-2459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjørn Egil Kringlebotn Nygaard ◽  
Jón Egill Kristjánsson ◽  
Lasse Makkonen

AbstractIn-cloud icing on aircraft and ground structures can be observed every winter in many countries. In extreme cases ice can cause accidents and damage to infrastructure such as power transmission lines, telecommunication towers, wind turbines, ski lifts, and so on. This study investigates the potential for predicting episodes of in-cloud icing at ground level using a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied, with attention paid to the model’s skill to explicitly predict the amount of supercooled cloud liquid water content (SLWC) at the ground level at different horizontal resolutions and with different cloud microphysics schemes. The paper also discusses how well the median volume droplet diameter (MVD) can be diagnosed from the model output. A unique dataset of direct measurements of SLWC and MVD at ground level on a hilltop in northern Finland is used for validation. A mean absolute error of predicted SLWC as low as 0.08 g m−3 is obtained when the highest model resolution is applied (grid spacing equal to 0.333 km), together with the Thompson microphysics scheme. The quality of the SLWC predictions decreases dramatically with decreasing model resolution, and a systematic difference in predictive skill is found between the cloud microphysics schemes applied. A comparison between measured and predicted MVD shows that when prescribing the droplet concentration equal to 250 cm−3 the model predicts MVDs ranging from 12 to 20 μm, which corresponds well to the measured range. However, the variation from case to case is not captured by the current cloud microphysics schemes.


Author(s):  
T. Marieb ◽  
J. C. Bravman ◽  
P. Flinn ◽  
D. Gardner ◽  
M. Madden

Electromigration and stress voiding have been active areas of research in the microelectronics industry for many years. While accelerated testing of these phenomena has been performed for the last 25 years[1-2], only recently has the introduction of high voltage scanning electron microscopy (HVSEM) made possible in situ testing of realistic, passivated, full thickness samples at high resolution.With a combination of in situ HVSEM and post-testing transmission electron microscopy (TEM) , electromigration void nucleation sites in both normal polycrystalline and near-bamboo pure Al were investigated. The effect of the microstructure of the lines on the void motion was also studied.The HVSEM used was a slightly modified JEOL 1200 EX II scanning TEM with a backscatter electron detector placed above the sample[3]. To observe electromigration in situ the sample was heated and the line had current supplied to it to accelerate the voiding process. After testing lines were prepared for TEM by employing the plan-view wedge technique [6].


2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sze Hoon Gan ◽  
Zarinah Waheed ◽  
Fung Chen Chung ◽  
Davies Austin Spiji ◽  
Leony Sikim ◽  
...  

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