Carbon Emissions and Sequestrations in Urban Landscapes and their Various and Changing Land and Water Covers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Page ◽  
Elisie Jonsson ◽  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Georgia Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Stockholm County ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Sequestration Potential

<p>In order to meet the dual challenges of providing for a growing global population and mitigating climate change effects, it is necessary to consider how urban areas can grow while achieving carbon neutrality, which is a complex and difficult task. It requires increased understanding of carbon dynamics in the coupled urban social-ecological systems, including process-level understanding and distinction of natural and human-perturbed carbon exchanges and their interactions. A better understanding of these complex systems and processes could, for example, facilitate enhanced use of nature-based solutions (NBS) to help mitigate and offset the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of urban regions. This paper addresses part of this challenge, aiming to further understanding of the complex interactions between urban growth and GHG emissions implied by associated land use changes, including the influence of water bodies within the urban region on the carbon source-sink dynamics.</p><p> </p><p>The study involves a comprehensive analysis of the land-use related GHG emissions and removals (through carbon sequestration) in the urban region of Stockholm County in Sweden, which is currently experiencing large urban growth and rapid population growth. Stockholm County includes large urban areas, forested areas (both old and young preserved natural forests and managed forestry), farmlands, some wetlands, and a number of smaller towns and semi-urban areas. Geographically, much of the county is located on the Stockholm Archipelago – a series of islands in the Baltic Sea – and the remainder is dominated by many lakes, including Lake Mälaren, which is Sweden’s third largest lake and the main water supply for the capital city Stockholm. The water coverage prevailing in the county allows for investigation of its effects in combination and relation to the variable and changing urban and other land cover distribution on the regional GHG emissions and sequestrations. These effects may be considerable and are addressed in this study.</p><p> </p><p>Results include an inventory of existing and planned land uses in Stockholm County, and the GHG emissions or sequestration potentials associated with each of these. The land uses include urban and semi-urban areas, different types of natural and cultivated vegetation, agriculture, forestry, water bodies and wetlands. The study provides a map of Stockholm County’s GHG emission and sequestration potential, which is further analysed to advance our understanding of how future development in the county can be shaped to effectively minimize urban GHG emissions and maximize carbon sequestrations. The inclusion of water bodies in this GHG inventory proved to be particularly interesting; while lakes and other water bodies are often considered as ‘blue’ nature-based solutions (NBS) for maintaining and providing a number of ecosystem services in urban regions, our results indicate the lakes in Stockholm County as considerable sources of GHG emissions. The contribution of inland waters to the regional GHG emissions emphasizes the need and importance of improving rather than deteriorating the regional carbon sequestration potential in the urbanization process. This can be achieved by using and enhancing other types of NBS, such as rehabilitation of green areas like forests, in order to achieve carbon neutrality in this urban region.</p>

MANAJEMEN DATA SPASIAL: PENGGUNAAN TANAH WILAYAH PEDESAAN DI SUMATERA BARAT

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-53
Author(s):  
Afrital Rezki, S.Pd., M.Si ◽  
Erna Juita ◽  
Dasrizal Dasrizal ◽  
Arie Zella Putra Ulni
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Paddy Field ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Primary Forest ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Forest Land ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Crop Fields ◽  
Mixed Plantations

Perkembangan penggunaan tanah bergerak horisontal secara spasial ke arah wilayah yang mudah diusahakan. Penggunaan tanah juga bergerak secara vertikal dalam rangka menaikkan mutunya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pola penggunaan lahan, bagaimana manajemen penggunaan lahan di satu wilayah berdasarkan batas Nagari. Metode yang digunakan adalah analsisis spasial dengan interpretasi citra penginderaan jauh, survey lapangan, dan analisis deskriptif. Pertumbuhan pemukiman Nagari Sungai Sariak Kecamatan VII Koto Kabupaten Padang Pariaman mengakibatkan pemanfaatan ruang menjadi tumpang tindih. Diperlukan cara-cara pengelolaan dan managemen penggunaan tanah dalam rangka pembangunan berkelanjutan yang menaikkan taraf hidup masyarakat dan tidak menimbulkan kerugian lingkungan.Terdapat 9 jenis penggunaan lahan yang ada di Nagari Sungai Sariak. Penggunaan lahan tersebut adalah Primary Forest, Secondary Forest, Paddy Field, Settlement, Mixed Plantations, Crop Fields, Water Bodies, Bushes, dan Plantations. Penggunaan lahan yang paling luas di Nagari Sungai Sariak adalah jenis penggunaan lahan Primary Forest, sebesar 48% dari total luas wilayah Nagari Sungai Sariak. Pada tahun 2011 sampai tahun 2016, penggunaan lahan paling luas terjadi pada penggunaan lahan jenis Primary Forest yang kemudian menjadi Mixed Plantations. Land use Changes moved horizontally spatially towards areas that are easily cultivated. The land use also moves vertically in order to increase its quality. This study aims to analyze land use patterns, how land use management in one area is based on Nagari boundaries. The method used is spatial analysis with interpretation of remote sensing images, field surveys, and descriptive analysis. The growth of Nagari Sungai Sariak in Kecamatan VII Koto, Kabupaten Padang Pariaman resulted in overlapping use of space. Management methods are needed and management of land use in the framework of sustainable development that raises the standard of living of the community and does not cause environmental losses. There are 9 types of land use in the Nagari Sungai Sariak. The land uses are Primary Forest, Secondary Forest, Paddy Field, Settlement, Mixed Plantations, Crop Fields, Water Bodies, Bushes, and Plantations. The most extensive land use in Nagari Sungai Sariak is the type of Primary Forest land use, amounting to 48% of the total area of the Nagari Sungai Sariak. From 2011 to 2016, the most extensive land use occurred in Primary Forest land uses which later became Mixed Plantations.

scholarly journals Prediction of Hourly Effect of Land Use on Crime

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Matijosaitiene ◽  
Peng Zhao ◽  
Sylvain Jaume ◽  
Joseph Gilkey Jr
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Police Departments

Predicting the exact urban places where crime is most likely to occur is one of the greatest interests for Police Departments. Therefore, the goal of the research presented in this paper is to identify specific urban areas where a crime could happen in Manhattan, NY for every hour of a day. The outputs from this research are the following: (i) predicted land uses that generates the top three most committed crimes in Manhattan, by using machine learning (random forest and logistic regression), (ii) identifying the exact hours when most of the assaults are committed, together with hot spots during these hours, by applying time series and hot spot analysis, (iii) built hourly prediction models for assaults based on the land use, by deploying logistic regression. Assault, as a physical attack on someone, according to criminal law, is identified as the third most committed crime in Manhattan. Land use (residential, commercial, recreational, mixed use etc.) is assigned to every area or lot in Manhattan, determining the actual use or activities within each particular lot. While plotting assaults on the map for every hour, this investigation has identified that the hot spots where assaults occur were ‘moving’ and not confined to specific lots within Manhattan. This raises a number of questions: Why are hot spots of assaults not static in an urban environment? What makes them ‘move’—is it a particular urban pattern? Is the ‘movement’ of hot spots related to human activities during the day and night? Answering these questions helps to build the initial frame for assault prediction within every hour of a day. Knowing a specific land use vulnerability to assault during each exact hour can assist the police departments to allocate forces during those hours in risky areas. For the analysis, the study is using two datasets: a crime dataset with geographical locations of crime, date and time, and a geographic dataset about land uses with land use codes for every lot, each obtained from open databases. The study joins two datasets based on the spatial location and classifies data into 24 classes, based on the time range when the assault occurred. Machine learning methods reveal the effect of land uses on larceny, harassment and assault, the three most committed crimes in Manhattan. Finally, logistic regression provides hourly prediction models and unveils the type of land use where assaults could occur during each hour for both day and night.

scholarly journals Land Use Dynamics and Variations in Sprawl across Municipalities in the Bamenda Urban-scape from 1996-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 224
Author(s):  
Fombe Lawrence F. ◽  
Acha Mildred E.
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analyses

Worldwide urban areas are having increasing influence over the surrounding landscape. Peri-urban regions of the world are facing challenges which results from sprawl with increasing problems of social segregation, wasted land and greater distance to work. This study seeks to examine the trends in land use dynamics, urban sprawl and associated development implications in the Bamenda Municipalities from 1996 to 2018. The study made use of the survey, historical and correlational research designs. The purposive and snowball techniques were used to collect data. Spatiotemporal analyses were carried out on Landsat Images for 1996, 2008, and 2018 obtained from Earth Explorer, Erdas Image 2014 and changes detected from the maps digitized. The SPSS version 21 and MS Excel 2016 were used to analyze quantitative and qualitative data. The former employed the Pearson correlation analysis. Analysis of land use/land cover change detection reveals that built-up area has increased significantly from 1996 to 2018 at the detriment of forest, wetland and agricultural land at different rates within each municipality. These changes have led to invasion of risk zones, high land values, uncoordinated, uncontrolled and unplanned urban growth. The study suggests that proactive planning, use of GIS to monitor land use activities, effective implementation of existing town planning norms and building regulations, are invaluable strategies to sustainably manage urban growth in Bamenda.

scholarly journals Effects of land use and water quality on greenhouse gas emissions from an urban river system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long Ho ◽  
Ruben Jerves-Cobo ◽  
Matti Barthel ◽  
Johan Six ◽  
Samuel Bode ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Flow Characteristics ◽  
River System ◽  
Urban River ◽  
Polluted Water ◽  
Land Use Types

Abstract. Rivers act as a natural source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that can be released from the metabolisms of aquatic organisms. Anthropogenic activities can largely alter the chemical composition and microbial communities of rivers, consequently affecting their GHG emissions. To investigate these impacts, we assessed the emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O from Cuenca urban river system (Ecuador). High variation of the emissions was found among river tributaries that mainly depended on water quality and neighboring landscapes. By using Prati and Oregon Indexes, a clear pattern was observed between water quality and GHG emissions in which the more polluted the sites were, the higher were their emissions. When river water quality deteriorated from acceptable to very heavily polluted, their global warming potential (GWP) increased by ten times. Compared to the average estimated emissions from global streams, rivers with polluted water released almost double the estimated GWP while the proportion increased to ten times for very heavily polluted rivers. Conversely, the GWP of good-water-quality rivers was half of the estimated GWP. Furthermore, surrounding land-use types, i.e. urban, roads, and agriculture, significantly affected the river emissions. The GWP of the sites close to urban areas was four time higher than the GWP of the nature sites while this proportion for the sites close to roads or agricultural areas was triple and double, respectively. Lastly, by applying random forests, we identified dissolved oxygen, ammonium, and flow characteristics as the main important factors to the emissions. Conversely, low impact of organic matter and nitrate concentration suggested a higher role of nitrification than denitrification in producing N2O. These results highlighted the impacts of land-use types on the river emissions via water contamination by sewage discharges and surface runoff. Hence, to estimate of the emissions from global streams, both their quantity and water quality should be included.

Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of Rapid Urban Expansion Using GIS and Remote Sensing

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Joong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Modeling Studies

Rapidly growing urban areas tend to reveal distinctive spatial and temporal variations of land use/land cover in a locally urbanized environment. In this article, the author analyzes urban growth phenomena at a local scale by employing Geographic Information Systems, remotely sensed image data from 1984, 1994, and 2004, and landscape shape index. Since spatial patterns of land use/land cover changes in small urban areas are not fully examined by the current GIS-based modeling studies or simulation applications, the major objective of this research is to identify and examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use changes of urban growth at a local scale. Analytical results demonstrate that sizes, locations, and shapes of new developments are spatio-temporally associated with their landscape variations and major transportation arteries. The key findings from this study contribute to GIS-based urban growth modeling studies and urban planning practices for local communities.

scholarly journals Regional Variations of Land-Use Development and Land-Use/Cover Change Dynamics: A Case Study of Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ustaoglu ◽  
Aydınoglu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Hierarchical Levels ◽  
Spatio Temporal

. Population growth, economic development and rural-urban migration have caused rapid expansion of urban areas and metropolitan regions in Turkey. The structure of urban administration and planning has faced different socio-economic and political challenges, which have hindered the structured and planned development of cities and regions, resulting in an irregular and uneven development of these regions. We conducted detailed comparative analysis on spatio-temporal changes of the identified seven land-use/cover classes across different regions in Turkey with the use of Corine Land Cover (CLC) data of circa 1990, 2000, 2006 and 2012, integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Here we compared spatio-temporal changes of urban and non-urban land uses, which differ across regions and across different hierarchical levels of urban areas. Our findings have shown that peri-urban areas are growing more than rural areas, and even growing more than urban areas in some regions. A deeper look at regions located in different geographical zones pointed to substantial development disparities across western and eastern regions of Turkey. We also employed multiple regression models to explain any possible drivers of land-use change, regarding both urban and non-urban land uses. The results reveal that the three influencing factors-socio-economic characteristics, regional characteristics and location, and development constraints, facilitate land-use change. However, their impacts differ in different geographical locations, as well as with different hierarchical levels.

Interface Urban Forest Management in an Urbanizing Landscape

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria A. Cunha-e-Sá ◽  
Sofia F. Franco
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Forest ◽  
Urban Forestry ◽  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Forest Conversion ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Clear Cutting

Although forests located near urban areas are a small fraction of the forest cover, a good understanding of the extent to which —wildland-urban interface (WUI) forest conversion affects local economies and environmental services can help policy-makers harmonize urban development and environmental preservation at this interface, with positive impact on the welfare of local communities. A growing part of the forest resource worldwide has come under urban influence, both directly (i.e., becoming incorporated into the interface or located at the interface with urban areas) and indirectly (as urban uses and values have come to dominate more remote forest areas). Yet forestry has been rather hesitant to recognize its urban mandate. Even if the decision to convert land at the WUI (agriculture, fruit, timber, or rural use) into an alternative use (residential and commercial development) is conditional on the relative magnitude and timing of the returns of alternative land uses, urban forestry is still firmly rooted in the same basic concepts of traditional forestry. This in turn neglects features characterizing this type of forestland, such as the urban influences from increasingly land-consumptive development patterns. Moreover, interface timber production-allocated land provides public goods that otherwise would be permanently lost if land were converted to an irreversible use. Any framework discussing WUI optimal rotation periods and conversion dates should then incorporate the urban dimension in the forester problem. It must reflect the factors that influence both urban and forestry uses and account for the fact that some types of land use conversion are irreversible. The goal is to present a framework that serves as a first step in explaining the trends in the use and management of private land for timber production in an urbanizing environment. Our framework integrates different land uses to understand two questions: given that most of the WUI land use change is irreversible and forestry at this interface differs from classic forestry, how does urban forestry build upon and benefit from traditional forestry concepts and approaches? In particular, what are the implications for the Faustmann harvesting strategy when conversion to an irreversible land use occurs at some point in the future? The article begins with a short background on the worldwide trend of forestland conversion at the WUI, focusing mostly on the case of developed countries. This provides a context for the theoretical framework used in the subsequent analysis of how urban factors affect regeneration and conversion dates. The article further reviews theoretical models of forest management practices that have considered either land sale following clear-cutting or a switch to a more profitable alternative land use without selling the land. A brief discussion on the studies with a generalization of the classic Faustmann formula for land expectation value is also included. For completeness, comparative statics results and a numerical illustration of the main findings from the private landowner framework are included.

scholarly journals Land use and urban growth

1980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Φίλιππος Βαρελής
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
South America ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Land Economics ◽  
North And South America ◽  
North And South ◽  
Economics Research

The main concern of the author has been with the use of land and urban growth as it relates to profit making investment while at the same time struggling to preserve a standard of quality in development and re-development. The author could not list all the probable land problems of the next two decades in North and South America; and if he could, there would be no space within this book to do so. The geographical diversity which characterises the United States will alter the importance of various problems from region to region and state to state. It was possible in this book however, to suggest the broadest examples of land problems and urban growth likely to sharpen during the next few decades, and to suggest some of the more important lines of work. The author's ten years of experience in Real Estate Investment in North and South America and years of study in various universities and numerous interviews as well as discussions with experts revealed that the most important land problems for the near future lie in the field of urban land use and urban growth. More than two-thirds of physical property is now found in urban areas, and most of the net future investment will occur there together with population growth. The author through his land experience found it difficult to contrast present land use and land arrangements with any sort of ideal, yet, the judgment may be offered that the present diverges more from the ideal in urban areas than in any other land use situation. He has looked for the point of leverage at which public policy might improve circumstances and free private energies to contribute to, not work against, the broader public interests. The author found that a greater share of all future land economics research will be directed toward the city. Each major land use problem requires land economics research; the greatest need lies with urban, suburban and metropolitan areas. By and large, very little economic land research has been directed toward cities. Many valuable studies should be made by city planners, political scientists and sociologists. Comparable to the many improvements of rural land use there has been little or nothing done for urban areas. The author felt that during the next several decades the older parts of virtually all cities will have to be re-built, other parts of the same cities must have their value and productivity maintained by group action; therefore, vast new additions will take place around its boundaries. Theobjective of all this is a pleasant, productive and prosperous city to live in. The impending changes within and around cities willinvolve substantial physical conversion of land. One major field of research will be directed toward the design of the most efficient and livable urban areas. Landscape architects, transportation and utility engineers and other specialists may make the major contribution in this direction. Even on this matter of physical layout the land economist should have something to contribute. He should be particularly concerned with avoidance of the massive waste of land which characterises urban areas today. A consideration of improvements on or to land leads rather directly into the matter of intensity of land use. Land is improved in order to be used more fully, or more intensively; and more intensive use usually recmires improvements in order to be effective. However, intensity and improvements are not invariably and directly correlated, and in any event intensity is a decree of use, whereas improvements are a form of investment in land which in turn leads to real estate profit. 4 The author directs his book "Real Estate as an Investment" in Appendix "Al", for further references.

scholarly journals Perkembangan Wilayah dan Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Kabupaten Purwakarta sebagai Dampak dari Proses Konurbasi Jakarta-Bandung

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Alfin Murtadho ◽  
Siti Wulandari ◽  
Muhammad Wahid ◽  
Ernan Rustiadi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
The Impact

<p class="ISI-Paragraf">Jabodetabek and Bandung Raya metropolitan region experienced an urban expansion phenomenon that caused the two metropolitan regions to become increasingly connected by a corridor and form a mega-urban region caused by the conurbation process. Purwakarta regency is one of the regions in Jakarta-Bandung corridor that experienced the impact of Jakarta-Bandung conurbation process. This study aims to analyze the level of regional development, to analyze land cover change that occurred, and to predict Purwakarta Regency land use/land cover in 2030. Regional development analysis is done by using the Scalogram method based on Potential Village data of year 2003 and 2014. Land cover change analysis is done through spatial analysis by overlaying land cover Landsat Satellite Image of year 2000 and 2015. Land use/land cover prediction in 2030 is conducted through spatial modelling of Cellular Automata Markov method. Purwakarta Regency experienced an increase in regional development within the period of 11 years (2003 to 2014), which is marked by a decrease in the percentage of the number of villages that are in hierarchy III and increase in the percentage of the number of villages that are in hierarchy II and I. In general, within 15 years (2000 to 2015) Purwakarta Regency has increasing number of built-up area and mixed gardens, meanwhile dry land, forest, paddy field, and water bodies tend to decrease. The results of CA Markov analysis show that the built-up area is predicted to continue to increase from 2000 to 2030, meanwhile paddy fields and water bodies will continue to decrease.</p>

scholarly journals Modelling dynamics of land use and ecosystem services changes in the Luanhe River Basin in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiren Xu ◽  
Brian Barrett ◽  
Fabrice Renaud
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Luanhe River Basin ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Ecosystem Disservices

&lt;p&gt;Quantifying land use dynamics is central to evaluate changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. It also allows for understanding how ecosystem services (ES) and ecosystem disservices (EDS) are affected by human interventions in the landscape. Finally, it can lead to the development of improved future land use management strategies for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) is the most afforested river basin in North China and provides multiple ecosystem services which are related to several SDGs (e.g. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation, 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, and 13: Climate Action). In this study, four scenarios: Trend, Expansion, Sustainability, and Conservation were developed based on different socioeconomic development and environmental protection targets as well as local plans and policies. Local stakeholders were consulted to develop these scenarios and to explore land use dynamics of the LRB and major challenges that the river basin may face by 2030. Land use change was modelled with CLUMondo and ES and EDS were characterised using capacity matrices. The ecosystem services potential index (ESPI) and ecosystem disservices potential index (EDSPI) was calculated, and ES and EDS hotspots and coldspots were identified. The study found that forests and water bodies provided the highest overall ES capacity, while the lowest scores were recorded for built-up and unused land areas. Built-up land and cropland provided the highest overall EDS capacity, while the lowest EDS scores were for water bodies. The forests and water bodies, which were widespread in the upper-middle reaches of the basin, were hotspots of provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and ecological integrity, while the hotspots of EDS were concentrated in the built-up land areas and the croplands, which were mainly distributed in the downstream of the LRB. Modelling results indicated that the LRB was likely to experience agricultural (crop and livestock) intensification and urban growth under all four future scenarios. The cropland intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend (Trend) scenario compared to those with more planning interventions (Expansion, Sustainability, and Conservation scenarios). The most significant increase of livestock density in grassland was projected under the Expansion scenario. Unless the forest area and biodiversity conservation targets are implemented (Conservation scenarios), the forest areas are projected to decrease under three scenarios by 2030. The ESPI of all the ES declined from 1980 to 2018 and would continue to decline until 2030 without sustainable and conservation development strategies. Compared with the EDSPI in 1980, the EDSPI under all future scenarios in 2030 was projected to increase. This study calls for establishing and implementing sustainable environmental protection policies as well as cross-regional and trans-provincial eco-compensation schemes for minimising trade-offs in ES. The methodological framework and findings of this study can guide regional sustainable development and rational utilisation of land resources in the LRB and other comparable river basins, and will be valuable for policy and planning purposes to the pursuance of SDGs at the sub-national scale.&lt;/p&gt;

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