scholarly journals Assimilation of atmospheric CO2 observations from space can support national CO2 emission inventories

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
Michael Voßbeck ◽  
Michael Buchwitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Emission Estimate ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
Assimilation System ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract The Paris Agreement establishes a transparency framework for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It's core component are inventory-based national greenhouse gas emission reports, which are complemented by independent estimates derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements combined with inverse modelling. It is, however, not known whether such a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity is capable of constraining estimates of fossil-fuel emissions to an extent that is sufficient to provide valuable additional information. The CO2 Monitoring Mission (CO2M), planned as a constellation of satellites measuring column-integrated atmospheric CO2 concentration (XCO2), is expected to become a key component of such an MVS capacity. Here we provide a novel assessment of the potential of a comprehensive data assimilation system using simulated XCO2 and other observations to constrain fossil fuel CO2 emission estimates for an exemplary 1-week period in 2008. We find that CO2M enables useful weekly estimates of country-scale fossil fuel emissions independent of national inventories. When extrapolated from the weekly to the annual scale, uncertainties in emissions are comparable to uncertainties in inventories, so that estimates from inventories and from the MVS capacity can be used for mutual verification. We further demonstrate an alternative, synergistic mode of operation, with the purpose of delivering a best fossil fuel emission estimate. In this mode, the assimilation system uses not only XCO2 and the other data streams of the previous (verification) mode, but also the inventory information. Finally, we identify further steps towards an operational MVS capacity.

Assessments of in situ and remotely sensed CO2 observations in a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System to estimate fossil fuel emissions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
Michael Vossbeck ◽  
Michael Buchwitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Mode Of Operation ◽  
Emission Estimate ◽  
Annual Scale ◽  
Assimilation System ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

<p>The Paris Agreement establishes a transparency framework that builds upon inventory-based national greenhouse gas emission reports, complemented by independent emission estimates derived from atmospheric measurements through inverse modelling. The capability of such a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity to constrain fossil fuel emissions to a sufficient extent has not yet been assessed. The CO<sub>2</sub> Monitoring Mission, planned as a constellation of satellites measuring column-integrated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration (XCO2), is expected to become a key component of an MVS capacity. </p><p>Here we provide an assessment of the potential of a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System using synthetic XCO2 and other observations to constrain fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emissions for an exemplary 1-week period in 2008. We find that the system can provide useful weekly estimates of country-scale fossil fuel emissions independent of national inventories.  When extrapolated from the weekly to the annual scale, uncertainties in emissions are comparable to uncertainties in inventories, so that estimates from inventories and from the MVS capacity can be used for mutual verification. </p><p>We further demonstrate an alternative, synergistic mode of operation, which delivers a best emission estimate through assimilation of the inventory information as an additional data stream.  We show the sensitivity of the results to the setup of the CCFFDAS and to various aspects of the data streams that are assimilated, including assessments of surface networks.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of four years continuous δ<sup>13</sup>C(CO<sub>2</sub>) data using a running Keeling approach

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanam Noreen Vardag ◽  
Samuel Hammer ◽  
Ingeborg Levin
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
End Members ◽  
Different Sources

Abstract. As different carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters have different carbon isotope ratios, measurements of atmospheric δ13C(CO2) and CO2 concentration contain information on the CO2 source mix in the catchment area of an atmospheric measurement site. Often, this information is illustratively presented as mean isotopic source signature. Recently an increasing number of continuous measurements of δ13C(CO2) and CO2 have become available, opening the door to quantification of CO2 shares from different sources at high temporal resolution. Here, we present a method to compute the CO2 source signature (δS) continuously without introducing biases and evaluate our result using model data. We find that biases in δS are smaller than 0.2 ‰ with uncertainties of about 1.2 ‰ for hourly data. Applying the method to a four year data set of CO2 and δ13C(CO2) measured in Heidelberg, Germany, yields a distinct seasonal cycle of δS. Disentangling this seasonal source signature into its source components is, however, only possible if the isotopic end members of these sources, i.e., the biosphere, δbio, and the fuel mix, δF, are known. From the mean source signature record in 2012, δbio could be reliably estimated only for summer to (−25 ± 1) ‰ and δF only for winter to (−32.5 ± 2.5) ‰. As the isotopic end members δbio and δF were shown to change over the season, no year-round estimation of the fossil fuel or biosphere share is possible from the measured mean source signature record without additional information from emission inventories or other tracer measurements, such as Δ14C(CO2).

scholarly journals Global to local impacts on atmospheric CO2 caused by COVID-19 lockdown

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Monitoring Systems ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Safe Level ◽  
Small Change

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The world-wide lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in year 2020 led to economic slowdown and large reduction of fossil fuel CO2 emissions 1,2, but it is unclear how much it would reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration, the main driver of climate change, and whether it can be observed. We estimated that a 7.9% reduction in emissions for 4 months would result in a 0.25 ppm decrease in the Northern Hemisphere CO2, an increment that is within the capability of current CO2 analyzers, but is a few times smaller than natural CO2 variabilities caused by weather and the biosphere such as El Nino. We used a state-of-the-art atmospheric transport model to simulate CO2, driven by a new daily fossil fuel emissions dataset and hourly biospheric fluxes from a carbon cycle model forced with observed climate variability. Our results show a 0.13 ppm decrease in atmospheric column CO2 anomaly averaged over 50S-50N for the period February-April 2020 relative to a 10-year climatology. A similar decrease was observed by the carbon satellite GOSAT3. Using model sensitivity experiments, we further found that COVID, the biosphere and weather contributed 54%, 23%, and 23% respectively. In May 2020, the CO2 anomaly continued to decrease and was 0.36 ppm below climatology, mostly due to the COVID reduction and a biosphere that turned from a relative carbon source to carbon sink, while weather impact fluctuated. This seemingly small change stands out as the largest sub-annual anomaly in the last 10 years. Measurements from global ground stations were analyzed. At city scale, on-road CO2 enhancement measured in Beijing shows reduction of 20-30 ppm, consistent with drastically reduced traffic during the lockdown, while station data suggest that the expected COVID signal of 5-10 ppm was swamped by weather-driven variability on multi-day time scales. The ability of our current carbon monitoring systems in detecting the small and short-lasting COVID signal on the background of fossil fuel CO2 accumulated over the last two centuries is encouraging. The COVID-19 pandemic is an unintended experiment whose impact suggests that to keep atmospheric CO2 at a climate-safe level will require sustained effort of similar magnitude and improved accuracy and expanded spatiotemporal coverage of our monitoring systems.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Comment on "Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation" by Becker et al. (2013)

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 869-873
Author(s):  
M. Heimann
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Global Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Becker et al. (2013) argue that an afforestation of 0.73 109 ha with Jatropha curcas plants would generate an additional terrestrial carbon sink of 4.3 PgC yr−1, enough to stabilise the atmospheric mixing ratio of carbon dioxide (CO2) at current levels. However, this is not consistent with the dynamics of the global carbon cycle. Using a well established global carbon cycle model, the effect of adding such a hypothetical sink leads to a reduction of atmospheric CO2 levels in the year 2030 by 25 ppm compared to a reference scenario. However, the stabilisation of the atmospheric CO2 concentration requires a much larger additional sink or corresponding reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

scholarly journals Climate change and agroecosystems: the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 730-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nereu Augusto Streck
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
C3 Plants ◽  
Elevated Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Growth Development ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) of the Earth´s atmosphere is increasing, which has the potential of increasing greenhouse effect and air temperature in the future. Plants respond to environment CO2 and temperature. Therefore, climate change may affect agriculture. The purpose of this paper was to review the literature about the impact of a possible increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield. Increasing CO2 concentration increases crop yield once the substrate for photosynthesis and the gradient of CO2 concentration between atmosphere and leaf increase. C3 plants will benefit more than C4 plants at elevated CO2. However, if global warming will take place, an increase in temperature may offset the benefits of increasing CO2 on crop yield.

scholarly journals Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> source and sink patterns over the Indian region

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suvarna Fadnavis ◽  
K. Ravi Kumar ◽  
Yogesh K. Tiwari ◽  
Luca Pozzoli
Keyword(s):  
Hot Spots ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Indian Region ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. In this paper we examine CO2 emission hot spots and sink regions over India as identified from global model simulations during the period 2000–2009. CO2 emission hot spots overlap with locations of densely clustered thermal power plants, coal mines and other industrial and urban centres; CO2 sink regions coincide with the locations of dense forest. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are compared with two bottom-up inventories: the Regional Emission inventories in ASia (REAS v1.11; 2000–2009) and the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v4.2) (2000–2009). Estimated fossil fuel emissions over the hot spot region are  ∼  500–950 gC m−2 yr−1 as obtained from the global model simulation, EDGAR v4.2 and REAS v1.11 emission inventory. Simulated total fluxes show increasing trends, from 1.39 ± 1.01 % yr−1 (19.8 ± 1.9 TgC yr−1) to 6.7 ± 0.54 % yr−1 (97 ± 12 TgC yr−1) over the hot spot regions and decreasing trends of −0.95 ± 1.51 % yr−1 (−1 ± 2 TgC yr−1) to −5.7 ± 2.89 % yr−1 (−2.3 ± 2 TgC yr−1) over the sink regions. Model-simulated terrestrial ecosystem fluxes show decreasing trends (increasing CO2 uptake) over the sink regions. Decreasing trends in terrestrial ecosystem fluxes imply that forest cover is increasing, which is consistent with India State of Forest Report (2009). Fossil fuel emissions show statistically significant increasing trends in all the data sets considered in this study. Estimated trend in simulated total fluxes over the Indian region is  ∼  4.72 ± 2.25 % yr−1 (25.6 TgC yr−1) which is slightly higher than global growth rate  ∼  3.1 % yr−1 during 2000–2010.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4447-4475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gretchen Keppel-Aleks ◽  
James T. Randerson ◽  
Keith Lindsay ◽  
Britton B. Stephens ◽  
J. Keith Moore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
First Century ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
System Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model–Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north–south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north–south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east–west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2–10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.

scholarly journals Los Angeles megacity: a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO<sub>2</sub> emissions

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (14) ◽  
pp. 9019-9045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sha Feng ◽  
Thomas Lauvaux ◽  
Sally Newman ◽  
Preeti Rao ◽  
Ravan Ahmadov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Emissions Modelling ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Modelling System

Abstract. Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km2 or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO2 emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO2 concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as  ∼  1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution) fossil fuel CO2 emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO2 emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO2 emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO2 concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO2 fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO2 fields reflect the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statistically significant number of sites observe emissions from a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the LA megacity are composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a single homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that FFCO2 emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires FFCO2 emissions modelling with  ∼  1 km resolution because coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate the observational constraints on the emissions estimates.

scholarly journals Re-evaluating the 1940s CO<sub>2</sub> plateau

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4877-4897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Jonathan Barichivich ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. The high-resolution CO2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. Double-deconvolution analyses have attributed this sink to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940–1942. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth rates of atmospheric CO2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil-fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project to identify the most likely causes of the 1940s plateau. We find that they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO2 growth rate during the plateau period, as well as in the 1960s, in spite of giving a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO2 plateau epoch of 1940–1950 ranges between 0.9 and 2.0 Pg C yr−1, depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by (i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used, (ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models, or (iii) LUC processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr−1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940–1942 El Niño on the observed stabilization of atmospheric CO2 cannot be confirmed nor discarded, as TRENDY models do not reproduce the expected concurrent strong decrease in terrestrial uptake. Nevertheless, this would further increase the mismatch between observed and modelled CO2 growth rate during the CO2 plateau epoch. Tests performed using the OSCAR (v2.2) model indicate that changes in land use not correctly accounted for during the period (coinciding with drastic socioeconomic changes during the Second World War) could contribute to the additional sink required. Thus, the previously proposed ocean hypothesis for the 1940s plateau cannot be confirmed by independent data. Further efforts are required to reduce uncertainty in the different terms of the carbon budget during the first half of the 20th century and to better understand the long-term variability of the ocean and terrestrial CO2 sinks.

scholarly journals Comment on "Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation" by Becker et al. (2013)

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Heimann
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Global Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Becker et al. (2013) argue that an afforestation of 0.73 × 109 ha with Jatropha curcas plants would generate an additional terrestrial carbon sink of 4.3 PgC yr−1, enough to stabilise the atmospheric mixing ratio of carbon dioxide (CO2) at current levels. However, this is not consistent with the dynamics of the global carbon cycle. Using a well-established global carbon cycle model, the effect of adding such a hypothetical sink leads to a reduction of atmospheric CO2 levels in the year 2030 by 25 ppm compared to a reference scenario. However, the stabilisation of the atmospheric CO2 concentration requires a much larger additional sink or corresponding reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

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