A downward counter-factual climate risk analysis of the impact of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean islands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Ciullo ◽  
Olivia Romppainen-Martius ◽  
Eric Strobl ◽  
David Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Analysis Study ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Impact

<p>Climate risk analysis and assessment studies are typically conducted relying on historical data. These data, however, represent just one single realization of the past, which could have unfolded differently. As an example, Hurricane Irma might had struck South Florida at Category 4 and, had it done so, damages could have been as high as 150 billion, about three times higher than damage estimated from the actual event. To explore the impacts of these potentially catastrophic near-misses, downward counter-factual risk analysis (Woo, Maynard and Seria, 2017) complements standard risk analysis by exploring alternative, plausible realization of past climatic events. As downward counter-factual risk analysis frames risk in an event-oriented manner, corresponding more closely to how people perceive risk, it is expected to increase climate risk awareness among people and policy makers (Shepherd et al., 2018).</p><p>We present a counter-factual risk analysis study of climate risk from tropical cyclones on the Caribbean islands. The analysis is conducted using the natcat impact model CLIMADA (Aznar-Siguan and Bresch, 2019). Impact is estimated based on forecasts of past tropical cyclones tracks from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset, as they all represent plausible alternative realizations of past tropical cyclones. The goal is to study whether, and to what extent, the estimated impacts from forecasts provide new insights than those provided by historical records in terms of e.g. cumulated annual damages, maximum annual damages and, in so doing, perform a worst-case analysis study to support climate risk management planning.</p><p><br>Aznar-Siguan, G. and Bresch, D. N.: CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3085-3097, doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3085-2019, 2019.</p><p>Woo, G., Maynard, T., and Seria, J. Reimagining history. Counterfactual risk analysis. Retrieved from: https://www.lloyds.com/~/media/files/news-and-insight/risk-insight/2017/reimagining-history.pdf, 2017.</p><p>Shepherd, T.G., Boyd, E., Calel, R.A. et al.: Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change 151, 555–571, doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9 , 2018.</p>

Feasibility Analysis of Optical Wireless Communication for Indian Tropical and Subtropical Climates

2019 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gireesh Soni ◽  
Abhilash Mandloi ◽  
Shilpi Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Wireless Communication ◽  
Optical Radiation ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
Optical Wireless Communication ◽  
Optical Wireless ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Communication Links ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
High Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis work investigates the feasibility of terrestrial Optical wireless communication links under tropical and subtropical regions which are characterized by high precipitation. The impact of rain on propagating optical radiation is observed under controlled rainfall conditions using a laboratory testbed. Link degradation in terms of rain specific attenuation (RSA) is calculated experimentally and using known empirical models. A worst case analysis in terms of fade margin is carried out using measured and recorded data from Indian Meteorological Center to estimate the free space link feasibility for Indian tropical/subtropical climates.

Tourism, Globalization, and Caribbean Dance

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yvonne Daniel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Globalization ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Cultural Globalization ◽  
Market Structures ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
Music Making ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Tourism Enterprises ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sacred Dance

This chapter examines Caribbean dance in the context of tourism and globalization. In particular, it looks at the interaction between tourism enterprises and dance genres, dance artists, and island governments as well as its implications for cultural and economic globalization. After providing an overview of human and natural resources available on the Caribbean islands and how they have been developed toward tourism, the chapter discusses the integration of Caribbean dance and music making into regional development as aids to differing types of tourist planning. It then considers the globalization of Caribbean dances such as merengue, mambo, salsa, and reggae and how Caribbean sacred dance, concert dance, and popular dance fare within cultural globalization or homogenizing trends, local market structures and tourism. It also analyzes the impact of globalization on Caribbean dancers and the local and global tensions brought on by globalization as they relate to Caribbean dance and tourism. The chapter concludes by offering suggestions for confronting pressures from cultural and economic globalization.

Numerical Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Generated Waves; Case studies of Irma, Maria and Dorian

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gozde Guney Dogan ◽  
Pamela Probst ◽  
Bora Yalciner ◽  
Alessandro Annunziato ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
The Caribbean

<p>Tropical cyclones can be considered one type of extreme event, with their destructive winds, torrential rainfall and storm surge. Every year these natural phenomena affect millions of people around the world, leaving a trail of destruction in several countries, especially along the coastal areas. Only in 2017, two devastating major hurricanes (Irma and Maria) moved across the Caribbean and south-eastern USA, causing extensive damage and deaths. Irma formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on 30 August 2017 and moved towards the Caribbean islands during the following week, significantly strengthening, becoming a Category 5 Hurricane. It caused wide-ranging impacts such as significant storm surge (up to 3m according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA report) to several islands in the Caribbean and Florida. On the second half of September, 2017, another strong Category 5 Hurricane named Maria formed over the Atlantic and moved west towards the Caribbean Sea. Maria also caused several impacts and severe damage in Caribbean Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to high speed winds, rainfall, flooding and storm surge with a maximum runup of 3.7 m (US NOAA) on the southern tip of Dominica Island. The most recent devastating event for the Atlantic is Hurricane Dorian. It formed on August 24, 2019 over the Atlantic Ocean and it moved towards the Caribbean islands, as getting stronger as moving, becoming a Category 5 before reaching the Bahamas, where it left a trail of destruction after its passage. The major effect of Dorian was on north-western Bahamas with very strong winds, heavy rainfall and a large storm surge.</p><p>In this context, a rapid and reliable modeling of storm surge generated by such kind of events is essential for many purposes such as early accurate assessment of the situation, forecasting, estimation of potential impact in coastal areas, and operational issues like emergency management.</p><p>A numerical model, NAMI DANCE GPU T-SS (Tsunami-Storm Surge) is developed building up on tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE GPU version to solve nonlinear shallow water equations, using the pressure and wind fields as inputs to compute spatial and temporal distribution of water level throughout the study domain and respective inundation related to tropical cyclones, based on the equations used in the HyFlux2 Code developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The code provides a rapid calculation since it is structured for Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) using CUDA API.</p><p>NAMI DANCE GPU T-SS has been applied to many cases as regular shaped basins under circular static and dynamic pressure fields separately and also different wind fields for validation together with combinations of pressure and wind fields. This study has been conducted to investigate the potential of numerical modeling of tropical cyclone generated storm surge based on recent events Irma, Maria and Dorian. The results are presented and discussed based on comparison with the measurements and observations. The study shows promise for developing a cyclone modeling capability based on available measurement and observational data.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of OAR dose sparing and plan robustness of beam-specific PTV in lung cancer IMRT treatment

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Chang ◽  
Feng Xiao ◽  
Hong Quan ◽  
Zhiyong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy ◽  
Incident Beam ◽  
Target Volume ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
Projection Area ◽  
Beam Direction ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Lung Cancer Patients ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Purpose Margins are employed in radiotherapy treatment planning to mitigate the dosimetric effects of geometric uncertainties for the clinical target volume (CTV). Here, we proposed a margin concept that takes into consideration the beam direction, thereby generating a beam-specific planning target volume (BSPTV) on a beam entrance view. The total merged BSPTV was considered a target for optimization. We investigated the impact of this novel approach for lung intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatment, and compared the treatment plans generated using BSPTV with general PTV. Methods and materials We generated the BSPTV by expanding the CTV perpendicularly to the incident beam direction using the 2D version of van Herk’s margin concept. The BSPTV and general PTV margin were analyzed using digital phantom simulation. Fifteen lung cancer patients were used in the planning study. First, all patient targets were performed with the CTV projection area analysis to select the suitable beam angles. Then, BSPTV was generated according to the selected beam angles. IMRT plans were optimized with the general PTV and BSPTV as the target volumes, respectively. The dosimetry metrics were calculated and evaluated between these two plans. The plan robustness of both plans for setup uncertainties was evaluated using worst-case analysis. Results Both general PTV and BSPTV plans satisfied the CTV coverage. In addition, the BSPTV plans improved the sparing of high doses to target-surrounding lung tissues compared to the general PTV plans. Both Dmean of Ring PTV and Ring BSPTV were significantly lower in BSPTV plans (38.89 Gy and 39.43 Gy) compared to the general PTV plans (40.27 Gy and 40.68 Gy). The V20, V5, and mean lung dose of the affected lung were significant lower in BSPTV plans (16.20%, 28.75% and 8.93 Gy) compared to general PTV plans (16.69%, 29.22% and 9.18 Gy). In uncertainty scenarios, about 80% of target coverage was achieved for both general PTV and BSPTV plans. Conclusions The results suggested that plan robustness can be guaranteed in both the BSPTV and general PTV plans. However, the BSPTV plan spared normal tissues, such as the lungs, significantly better compared to the general PTV plans.

scholarly journals Exploring Global Health Disparities: Afro-Caribbeans’ Perceptions of the Prevalence of Type II Diabetes in Their Communities

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia Deterville ◽  
Shewanee Howard-Baptiste ◽  
Valeria Freysinger
Keyword(s):  
Type Ii Diabetes ◽  
Chronic Conditions ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
West Indians ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Health Concerns ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Impact

Historically, many Caribbean islands did not experience the impact of non-communicable diseases until the most recent decades. Our neighbors in the Caribbean are experiencing complications and death due to chronic conditions and comorbidities that leave many communities puzzled about how to address health concerns and chronic conditions like diabetes. Little research has been conducted on the realities of type II diabetes in the Caribbean region. Qualitative interviews were conducted with six West Indians from four predominantly Afro-Caribbean islands, who witness the daily experiences of how type II diabetes impacts their health, their families, and their communities. The data provides key insight to understand how individuals and families are affected make sense of Type II diabetes.

scholarly journals The Impact of Farm Visits on Farmers’ Satisfaction with Extension: Examining the Dependence on Individual Methods in the Caribbean

2017 ◽  
pp. 20-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne G. Ganpat ◽  
Lendel K. Narine ◽  
Amy Harder
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Education ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Eastern Caribbean ◽  
Ict Infrastructure ◽  
Effective Use ◽  
On Farm ◽  
The Impact

This research sought to investigate the dependence on farm visits in selected Caribbean islands, and estimate the impact of such visits on farmers’ satisfaction with extension. The study utilized a causal-comparative design using a convenience sample from six major farming countries in the Eastern Caribbean. Descriptive frequencies, ANOVA, principal factor analysis, and hierarchical OLS regression models were presented. It appears the low use of alternate approaches to disseminate information to eastern Caribbean farmers has led to a dependency on farm visits. This is unsustainable primarily because of its high cost, given the financial constraints of countries. Results indicated that while farmers were fairly satisfied with extension, there was a significant difference in satisfaction based on country of residence, and frequency of farm visits was a significant moderator of satisfaction. Countries’ GDP per capita were consistent with satisfaction levels. Proactive initiatives by extension that focus on alternative education approaches are needed; farmers can be clustered into commodity groups and extension can also make use of the good ICT infrastructure in these countries. Extension can influence farmers’ expectations if it capitalizes on other approaches such as ICTs and group visits. Effective use of alternative lower-cost approaches can result in greater ability to deliver each dimension of quality and match farmers’ expectations. Farm visits have become entrenched as the preferred extension method in the Caribbean. This first-time study, which looks at the issue from an extension and economic perspective, shows the urgent need to revisit the farm visit approach to extension.

scholarly journals Evaluation of OAR sparing and plan robustness of beam-specific PTV in lung cancer IMRT treatment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Chang ◽  
Feng Xiao ◽  
Hong Quan ◽  
Zhiyong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy ◽  
Incident Beam ◽  
Target Volume ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
Projection Area ◽  
Beam Direction ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Lung Cancer Patients ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Purpose: Margins are employed in radiotherapy treatment planning to mitigate the dosimetric effects of geometric uncertainties for the clinical target volume (CTV). Here, we proposed a margin concept that takes into consideration the beam direction, thereby generating a beam-specific planning target volume (BSPTV) on a beam entrance view. The total merged BSPTV was considered a target for optimization. We investigated the impact of this novel approach for lung intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatment, and compared the treatment plans generated using BSPTV with general PTV. Methods and Materials: We generated the BSPTV by expanding the CTV perpendicularly to the incident beam direction using the 2D version of van Herk’s margin concept. The BSPTV and general PTV margin were analyzed using digital phantom simulation. Fifteen lung cancer patients were used in the planning study. First, all patient targets were performed with the CTV projection area analysis to select the suitable beam angles. Then, BSPTV was generated according to the selected beam angles. IMRT plans were optimized with the general PTV and BSPTV as the target volumes, respectively. The dosimetry metrics were calculated and evaluated between these two plans. The plan robustness of both plans for setup uncertainties was evaluated using worst-case analysis. Results: Both general PTV and BSPTV plans satisfied the CTV coverage. In addition, the BSPTV plans improved the sparing of high doses to target-surrounding lung tissues compared to the general PTV plans. Both Dmean of Ring PTV and Ring BSPTV were significantly lower in BSPTV plans (38.89Gy and 39.43Gy) compared to the general PTV plans (40.27Gy and 40.68Gy). The V20, V5, and mean lung dose of the affected lung were significant lower in BSPTV plans (16.20%, 28.75% and 8.93Gy) compared to general PTV plans (16.69%, 29.22% and 9.18Gy). In uncertainty scenarios, about 80% of target coverage was achieved for both general PTV and BSPTV plans. Conclusions: The results suggested that plan robustness can be guaranteed in both the BSPTV and general PTV plans. However, the BSPTV plan spared normal tissues, such as the lungs, significantly better compared to the general PTV plans.

Variational approach for mechatronic tolerancing: application to a DC motor

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 206
Author(s):  
Hana Siala ◽  
Faïda Mhenni ◽  
Maher Barkallah ◽  
Jean-Yves Choley ◽  
Jamel Louati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Variational Approach ◽  
Dc Motor ◽  
Upper And Lower Bounds ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
System Quality ◽  
System Behavior ◽  
Mechatronic Systems ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Target Values ◽  
The Impact

Having an increasingly complex set of inter-relations between several components from different domains, mechatronic systems become more and more complex. The behavior of such systems depends on the values of their parameters and variables. A deviation of these values from their expected values affects the overall functioning of the system, degrades the system quality, and may be a significant threat to safety. To reach an expected quality level, the deviations between actual and target values of parameters should be within specified tolerances. For this, two extreme limits (i.e. upper and lower bounds) of these values must be wisely determined. It is also important to know the impact of parameters deviations on system behavior. Furthermore, the margin of variables should be controlled to evaluate system performance with respect to the specifications, requirements and user needs. This paper describes a methodology based on a variational approach combined with Worst-Case Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation to determine the impact of the parameters variation on the system behavior. It helps designers to analyze tolerances of mechatronic systems. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with a DC motor case study. The results show that the developed method provides a new way for mechatronic tolerancing.

scholarly journals Evaluation of OAR sparing and plan robustness of beam-specific PTV in lung cancer IMRT treatment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Chang ◽  
Feng Xiao ◽  
Hong Quan ◽  
Zhiyong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Incident Beam ◽  
Target Volume ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
Projection Area ◽  
Beam Direction ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Lung Cancer Patients ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Better Than

Abstract Purpose: Margins are employed in radiotherapy treatment planning to mitigate the dosimetric effects of geometric uncertainties for the clinical target volume (CTV). We propose a margin concept that takes the beam direction into consideration, generating a beam-specific PTV (BSPTV) on a beam entrance view. The total merged BSPTV was considered as target using for optimization. We investigated the impact of this novel approach when applied to lung IMRT treatments, and compared the treatment plans generated using BSPTV with conventional PTV. Methods and Materials: We margin the BSPTV by expanding the CTV perpendicularly to the incident beam direction using the 2D version of van Herk’s margin concept. The BSPTV and conventional PTV margin were first analyzed in digital phantom simulation. Then, fifteen lung cancer patients were used in this planning study. First, all patient targets were performed with the CTV projection area analysis to select the suitable beam angles. Then, BSPTV were margined according to the selected beam angles. IMRT plans were optimizted with the conventional PTV and BSPTV as the target volumes, respectively. The dosimetry metrics were calculated and evaluated between these two plans. The plan robustness of both plans for setup uncertainties was evaluated with worst-case analysis. Results: Both conventional PTV and BSPTV plans satisfied the CTV coverage. The BSPTV plans improved the sparing of high doses to target-surrounding lung tissues much better than the conventional PTV plans. Both Dmean of Ring PTV and Ring BSPTV were significantly lower in BSPTV plans (38.89Gy and 39.43Gy) than that in the conventional PTV plans (40.27Gy and 40.68Gy). The V20, V5 and mean lung dose of the affected lung were significant lower in BSPTV plans (16.20%, 28.75% and 8.93Gy) than that in the conventional PTV plans (16.69%, 29.22% and 9.18Gy). About 80% of target coverage in all uncertainty scenarios could be achieved for both conventional PTV and BSPTV plans. Conclusions: The results suggested that the plan robustness can be guaranteed in both the BSPTV and conventional PTV plans. However, the BSPTV plans can spare the normal tissues such as lungs significant better than the conventional PTV plans.

scholarly journals Evaluation of OAR sparing and plan robustness of beam-specific PTV in lung cancer IMRT treatment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Chang ◽  
Feng Xiao ◽  
Hong Quan ◽  
Zhiyong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Incident Beam ◽  
Target Volume ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
Projection Area ◽  
Beam Direction ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Lung Cancer Patients ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Better Than

Abstract Purpose: Margins are employed in radiotherapy treatment planning to mitigate the dosimetric effects of geometric uncertainties for the clinical target volume (CTV). We propose a margin concept that takes the beam direction into consideration, generating a beam-specific PTV (BSPTV) on a beam entrance view. The total merged BSPTV was considered as target using for optimization. We investigated the impact of this novel approach when applied to lung IMRT treatments, and compared the treatment plans generated using BSPTV with conventional PTV. Methods and Materials: We generated the BSPTV by expanding the CTV perpendicularly to the incident beam direction using the 2D version of van Herk’s margin concept. The BSPTV and conventional PTV margin were first analyzed in digital phantom simulation. Then, fifteen lung cancer patients were used in this planning study. First, all patient targets were performed with the CTV projection area analysis to select the suitable beam angles. Then, BSPTV were generated according to the selected beam angles. IMRT plans were optimizted with the conventional PTV and BSPTV as the target volumes, respectively. The dosimetry metrics were calculated and evaluated between these two plans. The plan robustness of both plans for setup uncertainties was evaluated with worst-case analysis. Results: Both conventional PTV and BSPTV plans satisfied the CTV coverage. The BSPTV plans improved the sparing of high doses to target-surrounding lung tissues much better than the conventional PTV plans. Both D mean of Ring PTV and Ring BSPTV were significantly lower in BSPTV plans (38.89Gy and 39.43Gy) than that in the conventional PTV plans (40.27Gy and 40.68Gy). The V20, V5 and mean lung dose of the affected lung were significant lower in BSPTV plans (16.20%, 28.75% and 8.93Gy) than that in the conventional PTV plans (16.69%, 29.22% and 9.18Gy). About 80% of target coverage in all uncertainty scenarios could be achieved for both conventional PTV and BSPTV plans. Conclusions: The results suggested that the plan robustness can be guaranteed in both the BSPTV and conventional PTV plans. However, the BSPTV plans can spare the normal tissues such as lungs significant better than the conventional PTV plans.

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