Economic loss due to flooding in Europe at 1.5°C global warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maximiliano Sassi ◽  
Carlotta Scudeler ◽  
Ludovico Nicotina ◽  
Anongnart Assteerawatt ◽  
Arno Hilberts
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>We study the impact of climate change on European flood economic losses under 1.5°C global warming scenario. Climate scenarios were generated with the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) version 5 under the protocols of the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) experiment. Present climate scenario corresponding to the years 2006-2015 includes observed forcing conditions for sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice cover. The future 1.5°C scenario was constructed following SST warming according to the response to the RCP2.6 in CMIP5 model simulations. Each scenario comprises five 10-year long simulations that differ in the initial weather state. For each scenario we generated a 1000 years long stochastic set of precipitation based on the main modes of variability of gridded precipitation data through Principal Component Analysis applied to the monthly precipitation fields of the combined 50 simulated years. The other variables were obtained through an analogue month approach. Stochastic monthly fields were subsequently disaggregated in space and time to 3-hourly, 6 km resolution grids, and these were finally fed to a well-calibrated flood-loss model. The flood-loss model comprises a rainfall-runoff component, a flood routing scheme, an inundation component and a financial module that integrates flood hazard, buildings vulnerability, and economic exposure at location level. Prior to model evaluation, the stochastic meteorological forcing was bias-corrected with the stochastic set (based on observations) employed in the construction and calibration of the flood-loss model. The method for bias-correction preserves the ratio of quantiles of the future scenario to the present and preserves the correlation structure of the forcing variables. Average annual loss for Europe with the current-climate scenario generated by CAM is within 10-15% of the current industry estimate (based on observations), which suggests the applicability of the proposed approach. For the future scenario the model suggests a significant increase in loss (> 4 times) with respect to the present, which is in line with other studies for similar future global warming pathways.</p>

Global warming and forest fires in Canada

1993 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian J. Stocks
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Forest Fire Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
Innovative Thinking ◽  
The Impact

The looming possibility of global warming raises legitimate concerns for the future of the forest resource in Canada. While evidence of a global warming trend is not conclusive at this time, governments would be wise to anticipate, and begin planning for, such an eventuality. The forest fire business is likely to be affected both early and dramatically by any trend toward warmer and drier conditions in Canada, and fire managers should be aware that the future will likely require new and innovative thinking in forest fire management. This paper summarizes research activities currently underway to assess the impact of global warming on forest fires, and speculates on future fire management problems and strategies.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Goat Production: Enteric Methane Emission and Its Mitigation

Animals ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pratap Pragna ◽  
Surinder S. Chauhan ◽  
Veerasamy Sejian ◽  
Brian J. Leury ◽  
Frank R. Dunshea
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Rumen Fermentation ◽  
Ch4 Emission ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Ch4 Production ◽  
Enteric Methane ◽  
The Impact

The ability of an animal to cope and adapt itself to the changing climate virtually depends on the function of rumen and rumen inhabitants such as bacteria, protozoa, fungi, virus and archaea. Elevated ambient temperature during the summer months can have a significant influence on the basic physiology of the rumen, thereby affecting the nutritional status of the animals. Rumen volatile fatty acid (VFA) production decreases under conditions of extreme heat. Growing recent evidence suggests there are genetic variations among breeds of goats in the impact of heat stress on rumen fermentation pattern and VFA production. Most of the effects of heat stress on rumen fermentation and enteric methane (CH4) emission are attributed to differences in the rumen microbial population. Heat stress-induced rumen function impairment is mainly associated with an increase in Streptococcus genus bacteria and with a decrease in the bacteria of Fibrobactor genus. Apart from its major role in global warming and greenhouse effect, enteric CH4 is also considered as a dietary energy loss in goats. These effects warrant mitigating against CH4 production to ensure optimum economic return from goat farming as well as to reduce the impact on global warming as CH4 is one of the more potent greenhouse gases (GHG). The various strategies that can be implemented to mitigate enteric CH4 emission include nutritional interventions, different management strategies and applying advanced biotechnological tools to find solution to reduce CH4 production. Through these advanced technologies, it is possible to identify genetically superior animals with less CH4 production per unit feed intake. These efforts can help the farming community to sustain goat production in the changing climate scenario.

Tropical cyclone eyewall thunderstorms as a driver of upper tropospheric water vapor increases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Price ◽  
Tair Plotnik ◽  
Anirban Guha ◽  
Joydeb Saha`
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Maximum Enhancement ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>Tropical cyclones have been observed in recent years to be increasing in intensity due to global warming, and projections for the future are for further shifts to stronger tropical cyclones, while the changes in the number of storms is less certain in the future.  These storms have been shown to exhibit strong lightning activity in the eyewall and rainbands, and some studies (Price et al., 2009) showed that the lightning activity peaks before the maximum intensity of the tropical cyclones.  Now we have investigated the impact of these tropical storms on the upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) content.  Using the ERA5 reanalysis product from the ECMWF center, together with lightning data from the ENTLN network, we show that the lightning activity in tropical cyclones is closely linked to the increase in UTWV above these storms.  We find the maximum enhancement in UTWV occurs between the 100-300 mb pressure levels, with a lag of 0-2 days after the peak of the storm intensity (measured by the maximum sustained winds in the eyewall).  The lightning activity peaks before the storm reaches its maximum intensity, as found in previous studies.  The interest in UTWV concentrations is due to the strong positive feedback that exists between the amounts of UTWV and surface global warming.  Water Vapor is a strong greenhouse gas which is most efficient in trapping in longwave radiation emitted from the Earth in the upper troposphere.  Small changes in UTWV over time can result in strong surface warming.  If tropical cyclones increase in intensity in the future, this will likely result in increases in UTWV, reducing the natural cooling ability of the Earth.  Lightning may be a useful tool to monitor these changes.</p>

Global warming decreases rainfall but increases short-duration rain-rates during heavy precipitation events in the eastern Mediterranean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Armon ◽  
Francesco Marra ◽  
Chaim Garfinkel ◽  
Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein ◽  
Ori Adam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Short Duration ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rain Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the densely populated eastern Mediterranean trigger natural hazards, such as flash floods and urban flooding. However, they also supply critical amounts of fresh water to this desert-bounded region. The impact of global warming on such events is thus vital to the inhabitants of the region. HPEs are poorly represented in global climate models, leading to large uncertainty in their sensitivity to climate change. Is total rainfall in HPEs decreasing, as projected for the mean annual rainfall? Are short duration rain rates decreasing, or rather increasing as expected from the higher atmospheric moisture content? Where are the changes more pronounced, near the sea or farther inland towards the desert? To answer these questions, we have identified 41 historical HPEs from a long weather radar record (1990-2014) and simulated them in the same resolution (1 km<sup>2</sup>) using the convection-permitting weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Results were validated versus the radar data, and served as a control group to simulations of the same events under ‘pseudo global warming’ (PGW) conditions. The PGW methodology we use imposes results from the ensemble mean of 29 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the century on the initial and boundary conditions of each event simulated. The results indicate that HPEs in the future may become more temporally focused: they are 6% shorter and exhibit maximum local short-duration rain rates which are ~20% higher on average, with larger values over the sea and the wetter part of the region, and smaller over the desert. However, they are also much drier; total precipitation during the future-simulated HPEs decreases substantially (~-20%) throughout the eastern Mediterranean. The meteorological factors leading to this decrease include shallower cyclones and the projected differential land-sea warming, which causes reduced relative humidity over land. These changing rainfall patterns are expected to amplify water scarcity – a known nexus of conflict and strife in the region – highlighting the urgent need for deeper knowledge, and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p>

Weakening of the equatorial Atlantic SST variability under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lander R. Crespo ◽  
Arthur Prigent ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Ingo Richter ◽  
Emilia Sánchez-Gómez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Thermocline Feedback ◽  
The Future

<p>The eastern equatorial Atlantic is the region with the largest seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the entire tropical Atlantic Ocean. It is characterized by a rapid cooling during the boreal summer season, between June and September, that has large impacts in the regional climate. In this study we explore climate changes related to global warming in the cold tongue region using the CMIP5 and CMIP6 datasets as benchmarks. The historical simulations of both CMIP generations reproduce fairly well the spatial pattern of the observed warming – although weaker – in the Angola-Benguela region and most of the equatorial Atlantic band. The largest disagreements between model and observations are localized in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. The future business-as-usual scenario shows an intense and zonally homogeneous warming along the equatorial Atlantic band in CMIP5 and CMIP6. We also find a significant reduction of the June-July-August SST variability of 12% (17%) in the ensemble mean of the CMIP5 (CMIP6), in the future scenario (2050-2099) with respect to the historical period (1950-1999). The thermocline feedback, i.e., the local response of the SST anomalies to the thermocline depth anomalies, is weaker in the future scenario and appears to be the main driver of the change in interannual SST variability. The strong warming of the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the future leads to a higher stratification which could explain the weaker thermocline feedback.</p>

scholarly journals Urban warming and future air-conditioning use in an Asian megacity: importance of positive feedback

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuya Takane ◽  
Yukihiro Kikegawa ◽  
Masayuki Hara ◽  
C. Sue B. Grimmond
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Urban Warming ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of feedback between urban warming and air-conditioning (AC) use on temperatures in future urban climates is explored in this study. Pseudo-global warming projections are dynamically downscaled to 1 km using a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to urban canopy and building energy models for current and six future global warming (ΔTGW) climates based on IPCC RCP8.5. Anthropogenic heat emissions from AC use is projected to increase almost linearly with ΔTGW, causing additional urban warming. This feedback on urban warming reaches 20% of ΔTGW in residential areas. This further uncertainty in future projections is comparable in size to that associated with: a selection of emission scenarios, RCMs, and urban planning scenarios. Thus this feedback should not be neglected in future urban climate projections, especially in hot cities with large AC use. The impact of the feedback during the July 2018 Japanese heat waves is calculated to be 0.11 °C.

scholarly journals THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON GLACIAL, PROGLACIAL AND PARAGLACIAL SYSTEM AT COLLINS GLACIER, KING GEORGE ISLAND, ANTARCTICA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carina Petsch ◽  
Kátia Kellem Kellem da Rosa ◽  
Rosemary Vieira ◽  
Matthias Holger Braun ◽  
Rafaela Mattos Costa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Change ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Melt Index ◽  
Geomorphological Mapping ◽  
Index Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
The Impact

The analysis of glacial and ice-marginal system may contribute to understanding the impact of climatic change. The aim of this study is to investigate changes in glacial, proglacial and paraglacial system in response to the Collins glacier retreat, between the Little Ice Age (LIA) and 2070. Glacial geomorphological mapping reveals landforms that are diagnostic of terrestrial-terminating glacier former during LIA. Glacial and the proglacial systems were mapping to evaluate the ice-marginal evolution. The field measurement, satellite imagery, granulometric and morphoscopic sedimentary analysis and geomorphological data are analyzed. The Collins glacier surface topography has been surveyed by DGNSS during 11 years (1997/98-2008/09) and for glacier area estimation in 2030, 2050 and 2070 CE. The Collins glacier loss 1.4 km² in the period LIA-2018. Under an atmospheric warming scenario, using temperature melt index model the glacier will lose approximately 5% of its total area until 2030 (0.90 km²), 21% (3.60 km²) by 2050, and 35% (5.90 km²) by 2070 CE. Four sectors in the proglacial zone are identified: Sector 1 displays changes on the front of the glacier since the LIA, a push moraine in only one sector, presence of flutings and moraines of recession. Sector 2 showed shrinkage around 100 meters in the period LIA-2018, presenting recessional and push moraines of about 10 meters of height. Sector 3 showed 350 meters of the shrinkage since the LIA, and recessional moraines, and absence of the push moraines. Sector 4, showed 1500 meters of the shrinkage since the LIA, a push moraine of about 12 meters high. This behavior that occurs since the LIA, allows to validate the future scenario model. The ice-free areas could expand 1,4 km² by the end 2070 decade, if considered since LIA. However, it should be noted that if the glacier continues to retreat, the system will be subject to hydrological and sedimentary readjustments at various stages in the future.

Modeling the impact of 1.5 and 2.0◦C global warming on the hydrology of the Faleme river basin (West Africa)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mamadou Lamine Mbaye ◽  
Khadidiatou Sy ◽  
Bakary Faty ◽  
Saidou Moustapha Sall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>Climate change raises many questions about the future availability of water resources in West Africa. Indeed, water in this region is a fundamental element for many socio-economic activities. This study proposes an assessment of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Faleme basin, located in the Sahel (West Africa). The applied methodology consists in calibrating and validating the hydrological model GR4J before simulating the future evolution of flows in this catchment under of 1.5 and 2°C global warming.  Observed rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and river flows were used for calibration and validation of the GR4J model. Furthermore, output of three regional climate models (DMI-HIRHAM, SHIM-RCA, and BCCR-WRF) were bias corrected with the cumulative distribution function-transform (CDF-t) before used as input to the GR4J hydrological model to simulate future flows at the watershed scale. During the historical period the results shows a good correspondence between the simulated flows and those observed during calibration and validation, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) greater than 70%. Projections show a general increase in mean annual temperature and PET; a decrease in mean annual rainfall is projected by the DMI-HIRHAM, BCCR-WRF models and the overall mean; while a slight increase is noted with the SMHI-RCA model. As for future flows, a downward trend in annual and monthly average flows is expected in the two sub-basins of the Faleme (Kidira and Gourbassi) with input from the DMI-HIRHAM, BCCR-WRF models and the overall mean; however,  the GR4J forced by the SMHI-RCA model output, project increased flows. Furthermore, the decrease is more pronounced at Gourbassi sub-basin than at Kidira sub-basin. Thus, recommendations were made to mitigate the likely impacts of climate change on socio-economic activities that use water resources.</p>

Global warming and skiing: analysis of the future of skiing in the Aosta valley

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcello Joly ◽  
Elena Irina Ungureanu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Winter Tourism ◽  
Development Models ◽  
Ski Resorts ◽  
New Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Additional Costs ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of global warming and climate change on skiing by assessing the costs that ski resorts would have to bear to address the lack of snow. In this way, new development models can be hypothesized for the regional economy in the Aosta Valley, territory located in the West Alps, whose economy is largely based on winter tourism. Design/methodology/approach Starting with a literature review regarding global warming and its effects on the Alps, a methodology of analysis has been implemented to assess the relative weaknesses of ski resorts. Additional costs in adaptation strategies have been considered in the light of a major choice ski resorts must face: investing or not. For this analysis, four scenarios of global warming have been taken into consideration. Findings The lack of snow due to a rise in temperatures will have a big impact on regional ski resorts and will seriously threaten the economy of small lateral valleys. In this scenario, it is important to think about reorganizing the regional ski supply by focusing on stations with better economic results and those strategically well located. In this way, we can safeguard winter tourism in the region and preserve skiing by concentrating costs only in those resorts that are also able to bear new cost adaptation strategies. Originality/value The value of this paper is its estimation of the future impact of a rise in the average temperature in regional ski resorts. This impact is assessed in relation to concerns about the reduction of the skiing area and the new costs that ski companies will need to bear. The paper also proposes a new model for the reorganization of the ski supply in the Aosta Valley.

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