Impact of climate change on water availability in Tropical Andean catchments: a case study in the Vilcanota catchment, Peru

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selina Meier ◽  
Randy Munoz ◽  
Christian Huggel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Sustainable Water Management ◽  
Monthly Runoff

<p>Water scarcity is increasingly becoming a problem in many regions of the world. On the one hand, this can be attributed to changes in precipitation conditions due to climate change. On the other hand, this is also due to population growth and changes in consumer behaviour. In this study, an analysis is carried out for the highly glaciated Vilcanota River catchment (9808 km<sup>2</sup> – 1.2% glacier area) in the Cusco region (Peru). Possible climatic and socioeconomic scenarios up to 2050 were developed including the interests from different water sectors, i.e. agriculture, domestic and energy.</p><p>The analysis consists of the hydrological simulation at a monthly time step from September 2043 to August 2050 using a simple glacio-hydrological model. For historic conditions (1990 to 2006) a combination of gridded data (PISCO precipitation) and weather stations was used. Future scenario simulations were based on three different climate models for both RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Different glacier outlines were used to simulate changes in glacier surface through the time for both historic (from satellite data) and future (from existing literature) scenarios. Furthermore, future water demand simulations were based on the SSP1 and SSP3 scenarios.</p><p>Results from all scenarios suggest an average monthly runoff of about 130 m<sup>3</sup>/s for the Vilcanota catchment between 2043 and 2050. This represents a change of about +5% compared to the historical monthly runoff of about 123 m<sup>3</sup>/s. The reason for the increase in runoff is related to the precipitation data from the selected climate models. However, an average monthly deficit of up to 50 m<sup>3</sup>/s was estimated between April and November with a peak in September. The seasonal deficit is related to the seasonal change in precipitation, while the water demand seems to have a less important influence.</p><p>Due to the great uncertainty of the modelling and changes in the socioeconomic situation, the data should be continuously updated. In order to construct a locally sustainable water management system, the modelling needs to be further downscaled to the different subcatchments in the Vilcanota catchment. To address the projected water deficit, a new dam could partially compensate for the decreasing storage capacity of the melting glaciers. However, the construction of the dam could meet resistance from the local population if they cannot be promised and communicated multiple uses of the new dam. Sustainable water management requires the cooperation of all stakeholders and all stakeholders should be able to benefit from it so that they will support future projects.</p>

scholarly journals Sustainable Water Flows in Era of Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepika Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Energy Requirements ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Sustainable Water Management ◽  
Groundwater Availability ◽  
Water Flows ◽  
Surface Water Flow

The flow of water in rivers is of paramount importance to maintain supply of food and energy requirements to a great extent. The minimum flow in perennial rivers is subjected to groundwater availability, it is further replenished by the water added through precipitation. Climate change not only increases the melting of glaciers and sea level rise, but also influences the surface water flow and quality. As agriculture is directly affected by changing precipitation pattern, the reduction in water resources and untimely addition of water, both act havoc to the food production process. This interconnection makes agriculture even more vulnerable to the scenarios of global warming and climate change. Studies on food-energy-water nexus has opened new avenues of research in sustainable water management. The role of sustainable flow of water in rivers is highlighted which needs to be understood in era of climate change.

Traditional Water Management System for Climate Change Adaptation in Mountain Ecosystems

2017 ◽  
pp. 9-32
Author(s):  
Bhaskar Shrinivasulu Padigala
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Traditional Knowledge ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Agricultural Fields ◽  
Water Management System ◽  
Mountain Ecosystems ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Participation Process

The physical characteristics and geographical isolation of mountain ecosystems in Himachal Pradesh has contributed towards a practice of cooperation and development of traditional knowledge among local communities. Over the centuries these traditional knowledge has been used to manage resource scarcities and adapt to vulnerabilities by the local population for over many generations. This paper describes one of such traditional ‘Farmers Managed Irrigation System' (FMIS) practice, Kuhl, it's an open channel irrigation system to capture and transfer fresh snowmelt water from the glaciers to the agricultural fields in the valley. The characteristic of the local water management institution (structure, participation, process and governance) has been studied to understand their performance and success in managing water rights over the centuries. Lastly, the paper discusses the relevance of traditional water management against the backdrop of climate change, present status and issues related to the continuance of the Kuhl system and recommendations thereof.

Urban water demand assessment for sustainable water resources management, under climate change and socioeconomic changes

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 679-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelos Alamanos ◽  
Stamatis Sfyris ◽  
Chrysostomos Fafoutis ◽  
Nikitas Mylopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract The relationship between water abstraction and water availability has turned into a major stress factor in the urban exploitation of water resources. The situation is expected to be sharpened in the future due to the intensity of extreme meteorological phenomena, and socio-economic changes affecting water demand. In the city of Volos, Greece, the number of water counters has been tripled during the last four decades. This study attempts to simulate the city's network, supply system and water demand through a forecasting model. The forecast was examined under several situations, based on climate change and socio-economic observations of the city, using meteorological, water pricing, users' income, level of education, family members, floor and residence size variables. The most interesting outputs are: (a) the impact of each variable in the water consumption and (b) water balance under four management scenarios, indicating the future water management conditions of the broader area, including demand and supply management. The results proved that rational water management can lead to remarkable water conservation. The simulation of real scenarios and future situations in the city's water demand and balance, is the innovative element of the study, making it capable of supporting the local water utility.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Andrade ◽  
Joana Contente ◽  
João Andrade Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Agroforestry Systems ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
La Mancha

The assessment of aridity conditions is a key factor for water management and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies in agroforestry systems. Towards this aim three aridity indices were computed for the Iberian Peninsula (IP): the De Martonne Index (DMI), the Pinna Combinative Index (PCI), and the Erinç Aridity Index (EAI). These three indices were first computed for the baseline period 1961‒1990, using a gridded observational data (E-OBS), and, subsequently, for the periods 2011‒2040 (short-range) and 2041‒2070 (medium-range) using an ensemble of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) experiments generated by the EURO-CORDEX project. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were analyzed, an intermediate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil-intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). Overall, the three indices disclose a strengthening of aridity and dry conditions in central and southern Iberia until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5. Strong(weak) statistically significant correlations were found between these indices and the total mean precipitation (mean temperature) along with projected significant decreasing(increasing) trends for precipitation(temperature). The prevalence of years with arid conditions (above 70% for 2041‒2070 under both RCPs) are projected to have major impacts in some regions, such as southern Portugal, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Comunidad de Madrid, Andalucía, Región de Murcia, Comunidad Valenciana, and certain regions within the Aragón province. The projected increase in both the intensity and persistence of aridity conditions in a broader southern half of Iberia will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of this region to climate change, while the risk of multi-level desertification should be thoroughly integrated into regional and national water management and planning.

scholarly journals Contrasting dynamics of hydrological processes in the Volta River basin under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moctar Dembélé ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Natalie Ceperley ◽  
Sander J. Zwart ◽  
Josh Larsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Low Flow

Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of twelve general circulation models (GCM) from CMIP5 that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCM) from CORDEX-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM-GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The corrected simulations are then used as input to the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the twenty-first century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting changes in the seasonality of rainfall depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High and low flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water-energy-food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socio-economic development.

scholarly journals Modelling of Extreme Hydrological Events on a Tisza River Basin Pilot Area, Hungary

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Dávid Béla Vizi ◽  
János Fehér ◽  
Attila Lovas ◽  
Sándor Kovács
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Additional Task ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Events ◽  
Tisza River ◽  
Proper Operation

Abstract Climate change takes more and more challenges to the water management. Future predictions show that the possibility of extreme floods and drought events are increasing, thus an additional task of the water management can be the fulfilment of the increasing water demands. These new extreme hydrological situations need to be properly handled in water management. The paper presents the first modelling results of the JOINTISZA project carried out on a selected sub-basin of the Tisza River, which is endangered by hydrological extremes. Our aim was to demonstrate the applicability of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model to study the effects of the climate change. Future hydrological trends were introduced in the river basin and it was assessed how the results of climate models can be used for further hydrodynamic modelling. To address challenges of climate change and supply the stakeholders with an adequate amount of water, proper operation of the reservoir and the irrigation canals are needed. The use of hydrological modelling can be helpful to adequately distribute water resources.

scholarly journals Assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on runoff in Western Mediterranean basins

2015 ◽  
Vol 371 ◽  
pp. 75-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Ruelland ◽  
P. Hublart ◽  
Y. Tramblay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Clear Trend ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Precipitation Decrease

Abstract. This paper investigates the uncertainties linked to climate change impacts on runoff in four mesoscale basins (900 to 1800 km2) in the Mediterranean region. Runoff simulations were based on a daily conceptual model including a snow module. The model was calibrated and validated according to a differential split-sample test over a 20-year period and four competing criterions aiming to represent model structural uncertainty based on the concept of Pareto optimality. Five regional climate models (RCMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative were used to provide temperature and precipitation projections under RCP8.5 by 2050. The RCMs' inability to realistically simulate reference climate (notably precipitation) led us to apply a monthly perturbation method in order to produce a range of climate scenarios. The structural uncertainty bounds obtained from the hydrological simulations over the reference period showed that the model was able to correctly reproduce observed runoff despite contrasted hydrological conditions in (and in between) the basins. Climate projections were shown to be convergent regarding temperatures, which could increase by about +1 to 3 °C on each basin. In contrast, no clear trends in precipitation could be put in evidence, some RCMs leading to a mean annual precipitation decrease (up to 64%), and others to an increase (up to 33%). The hydrological projections resulted from the combination of the hydrological simulation bounds with the range of climate projections. Despite the propagation of those uncertainties, the 2050 hydrological scenarios agreed on a significant runoff decrease (2–77%) during spring on all basins. On the opposite, no clear trend in runoff could be observed for the other seasons.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document