Supercell predictability on Iberian Peninsula using WRF-ARW model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Granda-Maestre ◽  
Carlos Calvo-Sancho ◽  
Yago Martín
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Complex Topography ◽  
The Past ◽  
Master's Thesis ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Moment

<p>Spain, having a complex topography, has many climate and weather particularities, acting in many aspects like a mini continent. This is shown in many aspects, such as supercells, which count for more than 1000 in the last 10 years. This indicates that severe weather happens yearly, and supercell thunderstorms are one of the biggest threats, producing damage to population and economical assets, which makes reliable supercell forecast for risk management and mitigation a priority.</p><p>This research evaluates supercell forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model over Spain. This first iteration analyzes 2018 supercells, trying to predict this events using three nested domains (15-3-1 km), feeded with GFS operational datasets. The configuration chosen for the model has been used in the past for a master's thesis, with great results, and thus this work aims to evalute the operational usage of this configuration for prediction with 12-36 hours of anticipation. Results so far show that around 80% of supercells could be perfectly forecasted, and another 15% could have medium forecasting skill. This results show that risk alarms could have been issued if this forecasts had being operative at the moment.</p>

Supercell Pre-convective Environments in Spain: a dynamic downscaling of ERA-5 Reanalysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Calvo-Sancho ◽  
Yago Martín
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
Wind Gusts ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
The Moment

<p>Supercell thunderstorms are often associated with severe weather conditions, such as tornadoes, hail, strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and flash-floods, producing damage to populations and assets. The goal of the study is to analyze and improve our understanding of pre-convective environments conducive for supercell development in the different regions of Spain. We use 2014-2020 data from the Spanish Supercell Database (Martin et al., 2020), ERA-5 reanalysis, and a dynamical downscaling with WRF-ARW model to a 9 km spatial resolution to be able to generate sounding-derived parameters at the moment of formation of each supercell. Results indicate that supercells are more common in high values of CAPE and Shear 0-6 Km, but in the south-western of Spain predominates supercells of HSLC (High Shear-Low CAPE) in the cold season.</p>

Chelovek.RU/Человек.RU

Chelovek RU ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 18-53
Author(s):  
Sergei Avanesov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Family History ◽  
Great Distance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian Philosopher ◽  
True Meaning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Pavel Florensky ◽  
The Moment

Abstract. The article analyzes the autobiography of the famous Russian philosopher, theologian and scientist Pavel Florensky, as well as those of his texts that retain traces of memories. According to Florensky, the personal biography is based on family history and continues in children. He addresses his own biography to his children. Memories based on diary entries are designed as a memory diary, that is, as material for future memories. The past becomes actual in autobiography, turns into a kind of present. The past, from the point of view of its realization in the present, gains meaning and significance. The au-thor is active in relation to his own past, transforming it from a collection of disparate facts into a se-quence of events. A person can only see the true meaning of such events from a great distance. Therefore, the philosopher remembers not so much the circumstances of his life as the inner impressions of the en-counter with reality. The most powerful personality-forming experiences are associated with childhood. Even the moment of birth can decisively affect the character of a person and the range of his interests. The foundations of a person's worldview are laid precisely in childhood. Florensky not only writes mem-oirs about himself, but also tries to analyze the problems of time and memory. A person is immersed in time, but he is able to move into the past through memory and into the future through faith. An autobi-ography can never be written to the end because its author lives on. However, reaching the depths of life, he is able to build his path in such a way that at the end of this path he will unite with the fullness of time, with eternity.

Five Years and Count(er)ing: Memoir after Memoir

CounterText ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-32
Author(s):  
Norbert Bugeja
Keyword(s):  
Guest Editor ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
National Museum ◽  
Terror Attack ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
The Past ◽  
Personal Perspectives ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Ongoing Project

In this retrospective piece, the Guest Editor of the first number of CounterText (a special issue titled Postcolonial Springs) looks back at the past five years from various scholarly and personal perspectives. He places particular focus on an event that took place mid-way between the 2011 uprisings across a number of Arab countries and the moment of writing: the March 2015 terror attack on the Bardo National Museum in Tunis, which killed twenty-two people and had a profound effect on Tunisian popular consciousness and that of the post-2011 Arab nations. In this context, the author argues for a renewed perspective on memoir as at once a memorial practice and a political gesture in writing, one that exceeds concerns of genre and form to encompass an ongoing project of political re-cognition following events that continue to remap the agenda for the region. The piece makes a brief final pitch for Europe's need to re-cognise, within those modes of ‘articulacy-in-difficulty’ active on its southern borders, specific answers to its own present quandaries.

INSTITUTE OF TRIAL BY JURY IN THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE: ORIGIN AND DEVELOPMENT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Komiljonov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Empire ◽  
Jury Trial ◽  
Judicial Process ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian State ◽  
Administration Of Justice ◽  
Jury System ◽  
The Russian Empire ◽  
The Moment

The article examines the Genesis of the institution of jury trial in the Russian Empire from the moment of its introduction to the end of the Provisional government. It is noted that the emergence of a trial with the participation of jurors was influenced by Western models of the judicial process, and the forms of participation of citizens in the administration of justice that previously existed on the territory of the Russian state were taken into account. The role that the jury system has played with some success in the search for truth, justice, and the implementation of effective and independent justice in the past centuries is particularly highlighted.

scholarly journals Wooden Buildings in Market Squares of Polish Small Towns: Bielsk Podlaski and Kleszczele—The Issue of Preserving and Restoring Historical Values of Market Spaces

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6779
Author(s):  
Aleksander Owerczuk
Keyword(s):  
Small Towns ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Individual Market ◽  
The Moment

In the past centuries, small towns in Podlaskie Voivodeship were dominated by wooden buildings. Nowadays, there are not many of them left. However, they can still be found in the centers of towns, including some market squares. These are often inconspicuous objects, mainly wooden houses. This paper discusses the issue of the significance of wooden buildings, especially houses, in maintaining and restoring historic values of market spaces in small towns of Podlaskie Voivodeship in the examples of Bielsk Podlaski and Kleszczele. The research determined the moment of rapid changes, during which most marketplace buildings lost their historic form. The existing condition was analyzed in terms of its historical values. Conclusions were formulated on the scope and type of restoration works for individual market squares. Finally, general conclusions from the research on the market squares of Bielsk Podlaski and Kleszczele were presented.

scholarly journals Evaluation of WRF Model Simulations of Tornadic and Nontornadic Outbreaks Occurring in the Spring and Fall

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (11) ◽  
pp. 4098-4119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad M. Shafer ◽  
Andrew E. Mercer ◽  
Lance M. Leslie ◽  
Michael B. Richman ◽  
Charles A. Doswell
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Significant Events ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Time Of Year ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks ◽  
Thermodynamic Instability

Abstract Recent studies, investigating the ability to use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to distinguish tornado outbreaks from primarily nontornadic outbreaks when initialized with synoptic-scale data, have suggested that accurate discrimination of outbreak type is possible up to three days in advance of the outbreaks. However, these studies have focused on the most meteorologically significant events without regard to the season in which the outbreaks occurred. Because tornado outbreaks usually occur during the spring and fall seasons, whereas the primarily nontornadic outbreaks develop predominantly during the summer, the results of these studies may have been influenced by climatological conditions (e.g., reduced shear, in the mean, in the summer months), in addition to synoptic-scale processes. This study focuses on the impacts of choosing outbreaks of severe weather during the same time of year. Specifically, primarily nontornadic outbreaks that occurred during the summer have been replaced with outbreaks that do not occur in the summer. Subjective and objective analyses of the outbreak simulations indicate that the WRF’s capability of distinguishing outbreak type correctly is reduced when the seasonal constraints are included. However, accuracy scores exceeding 0.7 and skill scores exceeding 0.5 using 1-day simulation fields of individual meteorological parameters, show that precursor synoptic-scale processes play an important role in the occurrence or absence of tornadoes in severe weather outbreaks. Low-level storm-relative helicity parameters and synoptic parameters, such as geopotential heights and mean sea level pressure, appear to be most helpful in distinguishing outbreak type, whereas thermodynamic instability parameters are noticeably both less accurate and less skillful.

ASPECTS REGARDING THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN IMPROVING DEFENSE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 323-330
Author(s):  
Gabriela-Florina NICOARĂ ◽  
Gergonia-Cristiana BOGĂȚEANU
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Digital Systems ◽  
Constructive Approach ◽  
The Past ◽  
A Priority ◽  
High Level

Abstract: Regarding the society evolution dominated by a high-level technology, we consider this article a constructive approach. The aim of the paper is to highlight a few activities/places/spots in which competences of humans/soldiers interfere with different elements of the artificial intelligence. We deem that the technological progress in the past few years has been impressive. Nowadays, thousands of activities that were mostly or exclusively executed by people can be done faster and often with greater precision using digital systems. In this instance and considering the achievement of functional compatibility between Romanian Army and forces from NATO as being a priority, the development of the technology based on artificial intelligence is vital within the defense resource management.

A short history of Polish formations protecting the governing bodies of the state

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (38) ◽  
pp. 75-84
Author(s):  
Aneta Drożdż
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
The State ◽  
Short History ◽  
Control Subsystem ◽  
State Security ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rules And Principles ◽  
History Of ◽  
Important People ◽  
The Moment

This paper presents a short history of Polish formations protecting the governing bodies of the state, starting from the moment Poland regained independence at the end of the twentieth century. The considerations are presented against the rules and principles of the functioning of the state security system, with particular emphasis on the control subsystem. This paper demonstrates the need to research attitudes to safety in the past, in order to develop and apply effective contemporary solutions. The considerations contained in it also concern the existing threats to the management of state organs. They may contribute to further discussions on the purpose and rules of operation of the formation which is supposed to protect the most important people in the state.

scholarly journals Reflexive Dressing: Rethinking Retro

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stella North
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Experience ◽  
The Body ◽  
The Past ◽  
Present Experience ◽  
The Moment

This article undertakes a philosophical exploration of the act we know, or think we know, as ‘dressing’. Inhabiting, in thought, the moment in which we dress, I examine some of its constituent mechanisms, attending to the impulses by which dressing is generated out of subjective experience.  When those impulses are temporally marked, as they are in the case of retro dress, this generation is a two-pronged process, in which the holding of the body in time, and the holding of time in the body, recalibrate one another. The process of ‘dressing,’ in this understanding, has a reflexivity which is double; it entails the turning of the body, with dress as medium, towards itself, and the turning of present experience towards some felt notion of the past. Reflexively dressing, we are always becoming ourselves, and becoming other than ourselves, at once; a movement of circuitous internalisation and externalisation by which the ambiguation inherent in material experience is realised.  

scholarly journals Memory: The Means of Psychological Domination—A Study of Harold Pinter’s Old Times

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Xuan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Theory ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Spatial Characteristics ◽  
Harold Pinter ◽  
Temporal Characteristics ◽  
The Past ◽  
Inner World ◽  
Special Quality ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Traditional Understanding

<p>In the late 1960s and early 1970s, with his memory plays Harold Pinter staged his own aesthetic revolution by breaking out of the traps represented by the Comedies of Menace. Pinter, as Noël Coward said, is a genuine original and a superb craftsman. In <em>Old Times</em>, he drastically breaks our traditional understanding of “time” and “memory”, endowing memory with a special quality. It becomes a net which can be weaved randomly. From the perspective of spatial theory, the paper aims at analyzing the temporal characteristics and spatial characteristics of <em>Old Times </em>and exploring the inner world of modern people. It comes to a conclusion that characters create the past story according to their psychological or tactical needs of the moment; in other words, memory is the means of psychological domination. The play also intends to reveal something universal: the sense of crisis and loneliness. Deeley and Anna trap themselves in power struggle because they see each other as a threat to their relationship with Kate. So it suggests that each man is an island.</p>

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