Improvements in XCO2 accuracy from OCO-2 with the latest ACOS v10 product

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher ODell ◽  
Annmarie Eldering ◽  
Michael Gunson ◽  
David Crisp ◽  
Brendan Fisher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Desert Areas ◽  
Global Carbon

<p>While initial plans for measuring carbon dioxide from space hoped for 1-2 ppm levels of accuracy (bias) and precision in the CO<sub>2</sub> column mean dry air mole fraction (XCO<sub>2</sub>), in the past few years it has become clear that accuracies better than 0.5 ppm are required for most current science applications.  These include measuring continental (1000+ km) and regional scale (100s of km) surface fluxes of CO<sub>2</sub> at monthly-average timescales.  Considering the 400+ ppm background, this translates to an accuracy of roughly 0.1%, an incredibly challenging target to hit. </p><p>Improvements in both instrument calibration and retrieval algorithms have led to significant improvements in satellite XCO<sub>2</sub> accuracies over the past decade.  The Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) retrieval algorithm, including post-retrieval filtering and bias correction, has demonstrated unprecedented accuracy with our latest algorithm version as applied to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite sensor.   This presentation will discuss the performance of the v10 XCO<sub>2</sub> product by comparisons to TCCON and models, and showcase its performance with some recent examples, from the potential to infer large-scale fluxes to its performance on individual power plants.  The v10 product yields better agreement with TCCON over land and ocean, plus reduced biases over tropical oceans and desert areas as compared to a median of multiple global carbon inversion models, allowing better accuracy and faith in inferred regional-scale fluxes.  More specifically, OCO-2 has single sounding precision of ~0.8 ppm over land and ~0.5 ppm over water, and RMS biases of 0.5-0.7 ppm over both land and water.  Given the six-year and growing length of the OCO-2 data record, this also enables new studies on carbon interannual variability, while at the same time allowing identification of more subtle and temporally-dependent errors.  Finally, we will discuss the prospects of future improvements in the next planned version (v11), and the long-term prospects of greenhouse gas retrievals in the coming years. </p><p> </p>

scholarly journals A Combined Approach for Model-Based PV Power Plant Failure Detection and Diagnostic

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1261
Author(s):  
Christopher Gradwohl ◽  
Vesna Dimitrievska ◽  
Federico Pittino ◽  
Wolfgang Muehleisen ◽  
András Montvay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Failure Detection ◽  
Energy Yield ◽  
Combined Approach ◽  
Levelized Cost Of Electricity ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Model Based

Photovoltaic (PV) technology allows large-scale investments in a renewable power-generating system at a competitive levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and with a low environmental impact. Large-scale PV installations operate in a highly competitive market environment where even small performance losses have a high impact on profit margins. Therefore, operation at maximum performance is the key for long-term profitability. This can be achieved by advanced performance monitoring and instant or gradual failure detection methodologies. We present in this paper a combined approach on model-based fault detection by means of physical and statistical models and failure diagnosis based on physics of failure. Both approaches contribute to optimized PV plant operation and maintenance based on typically available supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data. The failure detection and diagnosis capabilities were demonstrated in a case study based on six years of SCADA data from a PV plant in Slovenia. In this case study, underperforming values of the inverters of the PV plant were reliably detected and possible root causes were identified. Our work has led us to conclude that the combined approach can contribute to an efficient and long-term operation of photovoltaic power plants with a maximum energy yield and can be applied to the monitoring of photovoltaic plants.

scholarly journals Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Mattia Marchio ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

scholarly journals Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 4161-4207 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. W. Ter Maat ◽  
R. W. A. Hutjes
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Carbon Exchange ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Modelling System

Abstract. A large scale mismatch exists between our understanding and quantification of ecosystem atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide at local scale and continental scales. This paper will focus on the carbon exchange on the regional scale to address the following question: What are the main controlling factors determining atmospheric carbon dioxide content at a regional scale? We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS), coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C), and including also sub models for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle include the main controlling mechanisms and capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used which were taken during an intensive observational campaign in the central Netherlands in summer 2002. These included flux-site observations, vertical profiles at tall towers and spatial fluxes of various variables taken by aircraft. The coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C) generally does a good job in simulating results close to reality. The validation of the model demonstrates that surface fluxes of heat, water and CO2 are reasonably well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology is captured by the model. Comparing spatially explicit simulated and observed fluxes we conclude that in general simulated latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model to the observations which exhibit large standard deviation for all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same test also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

scholarly journals Anticorrelated observed and modeled trends in dissolved oceanic oxygen over the last 50 years

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 4595-4626 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Stramma ◽  
A. Oschlies ◽  
S. Schmidtko
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Model Configuration ◽  
Pattern Correlation ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Observations and model runs indicate trends in dissolved oxygen (DO) associated with current and ongoing global warming. However, a large-scale observation-to-model comparison has been missing and is presented here. This study presents a first global compilation of DO measurements covering the last 50 years. It shows declining upper-ocean DO levels in many regions, especially the tropical oceans, whereas areas with increasing trends are found in the subtropics and in some subpolar regions. For the Atlantic Ocean south of 20° N, the DO history could even be extended back to about 70 years, showing decreasing DO in the subtropical South Atlantic. The global mean DO trend between 50° S and 50° N at 300 dbar for the period 1960 to 2010 is −0.063 μmol kg−1 yr−1. Results of a numerical biogeochemical Earth system model reveal that the magnitude of the observed change is consistent with CO2-induced climate change. However, the correlation between simulated and observed patterns of past DO change is negative, indicating that the model does not correctly reproduce the processes responsible for observed regional oxygen changes in the past 50 years. A negative pattern correlation is also obtained for model configurations with particularly low and particularly high diapycnal mixing, for a configuration that assumes a CO2-induced enhancement of the C:N ratios of exported organic matter and irrespective of whether climatological or realistic winds from reanalysis products are used to force the model. Depending on the model configuration the 300 dbar DO trend between 50° S and 50° N is −0.026 to −0.046 μmol kg−1 yr−1. Although numerical models reproduce the overall sign and, to some extent, magnitude of observed ocean deoxygenation, this degree of realism does not necessarily apply to simulated regional patterns and the representation of processes involved in their generation. Further analysis of the processes that can explain the discrepancies between observed and modeled DO trends is required to better understand the climate sensitivity of oceanic oxygen fields and predict potential DO changes in the future.

Trends in the frequency, extent, and severity of spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern Canada

1983 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Blais
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Clear Cutting ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spruce Stands ◽  
History Of

The history of spruce budworm (Choristoneurafumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks for the past 200 to 300 years, for nine regions in eastern Canada, indicates that outbreaks have occurred more frequently in the 20th century than previously. Regionally, 21 outbreaks took place in the past 80 years compared with 9 in the preceding 100 years. Earlier infestations were restricted to specific regions, but in the 20th century they have coalesced and increased in size, the outbreaks of 1910, 1940, and 1970 having covered 10, 25, and 55 million ha respectively. Reasons for the increase in frequency, extent, and severity of outbreaks appear mostly attributable to changes caused by man, in the forest ecosystem. Clear-cutting of pulpwood stands, fire protection, and use of pesticides against budworm favor fir–spruce stands, rendering the forest more prone to budworm attack. The manner and degree to which each of these practices has altered forest composition is discussed. In the future, most of these practices are expected to continue and their effects could intensify, especially in regions of recent application. Other practices, including large-scale planting of white spruce, could further increase the susceptibility of forest stands. Forest management, aimed at reducing the occurrence of extensive fir–spruce stands, has been advocated as a long-term solution to the budworm problem. The implementation of this measure at a time when man's actions result in the proliferation of fir presents a most serious challenge to forest managers.

scholarly journals Inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions in Mainland China from 1980 to 2010

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. Peng ◽  
S. L. Piao ◽  
P. Bousquet ◽  
P. Ciais ◽  
B. G. Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Scale ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Emissions Inventory ◽  
Ch4 Emissions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ch4 Concentration ◽  
Province Level ◽  
Fast Increase

Abstract. Methane (CH4) has a 28-fold greater global warming potential than CO2 over one hundred years. Atmospheric CH4 concentration has tripled since 1750. Anthropogenic CH4 emissions from China has been growing rapidly in the past decades, and contributes more than 10 % of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions with large uncertainties in existing global inventories, generally limited to country-scale statistics. To date, a long-term CH4 emissions inventory including the major sources sectors and based on province-level emission factors is still lacking. In this study, we produced a detailed bottom-up inventory of anthropogenic CH4 emissions from the eight major source sectors in China for the period 1980–2010. In the past three decades, the total CH4 emissions increased from 22.2 [16.6–28.2] Tg CH4 yr−1 (mean [minimum-maximum of 95 % confidence interval]) to 45.0 [36.4–58.3] Tg CH4 yr−1, and most of this increase took place in the 2000s. This fast increase of the total CH4 emissions after 2000 is mainly driven by CH4 emissions from coal exploitation. The largest contribution to total CH4 emissions also shifted from rice cultivation in 1980 to coal exploitation in 2010. The total emissions inferred in this work compare well with the EPA inventory but appear to be 38 % lower than EDGAR4.2 inventory. The uncertainty of our inventory is investigated using emissions factors collected from published literatures. We also distributed province-scale emissions into 0.5º × 0.5º maps using social-economic activity data. This new inventory could help understanding CH4 budgets at regional scale and guiding CH4 mitigation policies in China.

scholarly journals Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño-like than the Medieval Climate Anomaly? Evidence from hydrological and temperature proxy data

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lilo M. K. Henke ◽  
F. Hugo Lambert ◽  
Dan J. Charman
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Medieval Climate Anomaly ◽  
Climate Anomaly ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Proxy Records

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important source of global climate variability on interannual timescales and has substantial environmental and socio-economic consequences. However, it is unclear how it interacts with large-scale climate states over longer (decadal to centennial) timescales. The instrumental ENSO record is too short for analysing long-term trends and variability and climate models are unable to accurately simulate past ENSO states. Proxy data are used to extend the record, but different proxy sources have produced dissimilar reconstructions of long-term ENSO-like climate change, with some evidence for a temperature–precipitation divergence in ENSO-like climate over the past millennium, in particular during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD  ∼  800–1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD  ∼  1400–1850). This throws into question the stability of the modern ENSO system and its links to the global climate, which has implications for future projections. Here we use a new statistical approach using weighting based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to create two new large-scale reconstructions of ENSO-like climate change derived independently from precipitation proxies and temperature proxies. The method is developed and validated using model-derived pseudo-proxy experiments that address the effects of proxy dating error, resolution, and noise to improve uncertainty estimations. We find no evidence that temperature and precipitation disagree over the ENSO-like state over the past millennium, but neither do they agree strongly. There is no statistically significant difference between the MCA and the LIA in either reconstruction. However, the temperature reconstruction suffers from a lack of high-quality proxy records located in ENSO-sensitive regions, which limits its ability to capture the large-scale ENSO signal. Further expansion of the palaeo-database and improvements to instrumental, satellite, and model representations of ENSO are needed to fully resolve the discrepancies found among proxy records and establish the long-term stability of this important mode of climatic variability.

Typological bottlenecks: How large-scale regional language typologies help us interpret global prehistory

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Blench
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Modern Humans ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Human Culture ◽  
Regional Language ◽  
Mainland Southeast Asia

AbstractIt is unlikely that local or highly specific typological characteristics of language correlate with other aspects of human culture and history. However, at regional scale, the broad typology of languages does reflect bottlenecks. The paper argues that these regions of high typological similarity are due neither to chance nor long-term convergence, but reflect the initial conditions of settlement. This suggests that regions can be characterised by negative typology, i.e., the absence of globally common traits. Conversely, typological uniformity occurs in mainland Southeast Asia, a region notable for the similarities between language structures. An expansion of the remit of typology can uncover large regional patterns which can be tied to the archaeological narrative of the early expansion of modern humans.

scholarly journals A multiscale view of the Phanerozoic fossil record reveals the three major biotic transitions

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Rojas ◽  
Joaquin Calatayud ◽  
Michał Kowalewski ◽  
Magnus Neuman ◽  
Martin Rosvall
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Record ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Multilayer Network ◽  
Biotic Crisis ◽  
The Past ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Multiscale Dynamics ◽  
Ecological Changes ◽  
Fossil Data

AbstractThe hypothesis of the Great Evolutionary Faunas is a foundational concept of macroevolutionary research postulating that three global mega-assemblages have dominated Phanerozoic oceans following abrupt biotic transitions. Empirical estimates of this large-scale pattern depend on several methodological decisions and are based on approaches unable to capture multiscale dynamics of the underlying Earth-Life System. Combining a multilayer network representation of fossil data with a multilevel clustering that eliminates the subjectivity inherent to distance-based approaches, we demonstrate that Phanerozoic oceans sequentially harbored four global benthic mega-assemblages. Shifts in dominance patterns among these global marine mega-assemblages were abrupt (end-Cambrian 494 Ma; end-Permian 252 Ma) or protracted (mid-Cretaceous 129 Ma), and represent the three major biotic transitions in Earth’s history. Our findings suggest that gradual ecological changes associated with the Mesozoic Marine Revolution triggered a protracted biotic transition comparable in magnitude to the end-Permian transition initiated by the most severe biotic crisis of the past 500 million years. Overall, our study supports the notion that both long-term ecological changes and major geological events have played crucial roles in shaping the mega-assemblages that dominated Phanerozoic oceans.

scholarly journals Long-term (1990–2019) monitoring of forest cover changes in the humid tropics

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. eabe1603
Author(s):  
C. Vancutsem ◽  
F. Achard ◽  
J.-F. Pekel ◽  
G. Vieilledent ◽  
S. Carboni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Degradation Process ◽  
Forest Disturbances ◽  
Conservation Policies ◽  
The Past ◽  
Moist Forest ◽  
Forest Cover Changes ◽  
Global Carbon

Accurate characterization of tropical moist forest changes is needed to support conservation policies and to quantify their contribution to global carbon fluxes more effectively. We document, at pantropical scale, the extent and changes (degradation, deforestation, and recovery) of these forests over the past three decades. We estimate that 17% of tropical moist forests have disappeared since 1990 with a remaining area of 1071 million hectares in 2019, from which 10% are degraded. Our study underlines the importance of the degradation process in these ecosystems, in particular, as a precursor of deforestation, and in the recent increase in tropical moist forest disturbances (natural and anthropogenic degradation or deforestation). Without a reduction of the present disturbance rates, undisturbed forests will disappear entirely in large tropical humid regions by 2050. Our study suggests that reinforcing actions are needed to prevent the initial degradation that leads to forest clearance in 45% of the cases.

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