Current and future water balance in a Peruvian water catchment – combining hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Teutsch ◽  
Alina Motschmann ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
Jochen Seidel ◽  
Christian D. León ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Multiple Model

<p>In the Santa River catchment (Cordillera Blanca) in Peru, water availability is threatened by climate change and socio-economic factors, but little is known about relations and interactions of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors.</p><p>We developed a conceptual integrated water balance model that combines hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios, in order to analyze variability of water resources and water availability in the Santa River basin until 2050. The model is based on a lumped HBV model including a glacier - snow model (GSM) to simulate the hydro-climatic processes. In addition, the model was extended by feedback loops for agricultural and domestic water use. The model was calibrated and validated using the Peruvian Interpolated Data of SENAMHI’s Climatological and Hydrological Observations (PISCO) temperature and precipitation data. To assess future water balance challenges we used monthly CORDEX scenarios for 2020-2050 for simulations of future changes in hydro-climatology. These climate scenarios are combined with possible socio-economic scenarios, which were based on stakeholder interviews, workshops and analysis of available data and information concerning water demand. The scenarios that describe changes in the future socio-economic conditions were developed by means of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis (CIB), a semi-formalized method from systems analysis which allows the construction of socio-economic scenarios based on an impact network of different (socio-economic) drivers.</p><p>The uncertainty in the climate projections is accounted for by using different global circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM) combinations from CORDEX data. The uncertainty in the socio-economic scenarios was addressed by using possible ranges for future developments in water demand depending on the tendencies provided by the CIB analysis (e.g. increasing, constant or decreasing water demand). The climate and socio-economic scenarios are randomly combined in multiple model runs, which result in an ensemble of possible future discharges of the Santa River for each scenario combination.</p><p>Results suggest that the mean annual discharge is projected to increase by 10% (±12%) driven by an increase in annual precipitation amounts of about 14% (RCP2.6) and 18% (RCP8.5), respectively. In contrast, mean dry-season discharge is projected to decrease by 33% and 36% (±24%) by 2050, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, mainly driven by diminishing glacier melt discharge. We found that the projected socio-economic changes compared to climatic changes are less pronounced mainly due to higher variations in the trends of the global climate models. Nonetheless, the socio-economic drivers have a major effect on dry-season water availability. The increase of wet season and the decrease of dry season discharge call for different adaptation measures including improvements in water use efficiency, infrastructure and storage capacities.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals ANALISIS SISTEM DINAMIK NERACA AIR DI PULAU TIDORE

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Halima Malaka ◽  
M. Yanuar ◽  
J. Purwanto ◽  
Alinda Zein
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Balance System ◽  
Simulation Scenario ◽  
Availability Index

This research was conducted at Tidore Island, –Tidore City, North Maluku Archipelago Province. Objective of this study were  1) build a water balance model Tidore Island. This Method used in this research is method of survey with water balance analysis. Analysis of the data used is the analysis of dynamic system to determine the balance of the year 2009 - 2032 with software stella version 9.0.2. The result of analysis showed that in 2009 there were water balance 21,189,941.20 m3 / year and in 2032 there was a deficit of 427,678.61 m3 / year. Water availability index (IKA) in 2009 amounted to 1416.10 and in the year 2032 amounted to 82.54 IKA the value, it indicates that in 2032 the availability of groundwater only able to serve 82.54% the water demand. To improve the balance of water needed for water saving and conservation policies at each land use.Saving measures water use and conservation of groundwater done using three policy scenarios, the model simulation results indicate that both scenarios can increase the efficiency of water use and water balance in 2009 to 21,270,444.14 m3 / year with a value of 1490.63 and value IKA in 2032 can be water deficit of 31128.46 m3 / year. While the results of the simulation scenario 3 scenario between saving integrated water use and conservation can improve the water balance in 2009 amounted to 21,350,947.08 m3 / year and the value IKA 1573.44, and in 2032 the value decreased to 117.92 IKA shows the availability of ground water able to serve 117.92% of  water demand  people. Keywords: water balance,system dynamic, water demand, ground water availability

scholarly journals Simple water balance model and crop water demand at different spatial and temporal scales in Periya Pallam catchment of upper Bhavani basin, Tamilnadu

2021 ◽  
pp. 217-224
Author(s):  
A. Raviraj ◽  
Ramachandran J ◽  
Nitin Kaushal ◽  
Arjit Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Effective Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Crop Water Demand

Reduction in agricultural water use and increasing the sustainability of water resources can be achieved by studying the water balance of the area and crop water demand. In this paper, by using a simple water balance model, Evapotranspiration, Rainfall, Runoff, Water Demand and Water Requirement different crops are estimated. The crop water requirement and crop water demand for different crops grown in the Periya Pallam Catchment of Upper Bhavani Basin, Tamilnadu, was estimated. Water balance estimation of the area reveals that out of the annual rainfall, runoff is estimated to be 129 mm, effective rainfall is 252 mm, and deep percolation is about 67 mm. The demand for water for agriculture in the study area is about 61 million cubic meters (MCM), but only 19 MCM of water is available through precipitation in the form of effective rainfall. Hence, the remaining 43 MCM of water is supplied through groundwater and other sources. The results will pave the way for sustainable crop water use planning and would achieve water security in the basin.

scholarly journals Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1846
Author(s):  
Jessica Bravo-Cadena ◽  
Numa P. Pavón ◽  
Patricia Balvanera ◽  
Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas ◽  
Ramón Razo-Zarate
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm3/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm3/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of −15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.

scholarly journals Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3785-3808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Wada ◽  
L. P. H. van Beek ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Water Stress ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
Global Population

Abstract. During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960–2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr−1 (gross/net) over the period 1960–2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g. India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of past extreme events were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced.

scholarly journals GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 3829-3844 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hoogeveen ◽  
J.-M. Faurès ◽  
L. Peiser ◽  
J. Burke ◽  
N. van de Giesen
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Global Water

Abstract. GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to assess water use in irrigated agriculture, the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high-resolution data sets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for internal renewable water resources, as published in AQUASTAT, the FAO's global information system on water and agriculture. Validation of the model is done against mean annual river basin outflows. The water balance is calculated in two steps: first a "vertical" water balance is calculated that includes evaporation from in situ rainfall ("green" water) and incremental evaporation from irrigated crops. In a second stage, a "horizontal" water balance is calculated to determine discharges from river (sub-)basins, taking into account incremental evaporation from irrigation, open water and wetlands ("blue" water). The paper describes the methodology, input and output data, calibration and validation of the model. The model results are finally compared with other global water balance models to assess levels of accuracy and validity.

scholarly journals GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 801-838 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hoogeveen ◽  
J.-M. Faurès ◽  
L. Peiser ◽  
J. Burke ◽  
N. van de Giesen
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Global Soil ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Global Water

Abstract. GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for Internal Renewable Water Resources, as published in AQUASTAT, FAO's global information system on water and agriculture. Validation of the model is done against mean annual river basin outflows. The water balance is calculated in two steps: first a "vertical" water balance is calculated that includes evaporation from in situ rainfall ("green" water) and incremental evaporation from irrigated crops. In a second stage, a "horizontal" water balance is calculated to determine discharges from river (sub-)basins, taking into account incremental evaporation from irrigation, open water and wetlands ("blue" water). The paper describes methodology, input and output data, calibration and validation of the model. The model results are finally compared with other global water balance models.

Irrigation management through a coupled energy-water balance and crop growth model driven by remote sensing data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Mancini ◽  
Chiara Corbari ◽  
Imen Ben Charfi ◽  
Ahmad Al Bitar ◽  
Drazen Skokovic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Landsat 7

<p>The conflicting use of water is becoming more and more evident, also in regions that are traditionally rich in water. With the world’s population projected to increase to 8.5 billion by 2030, the simultaneous growth in income will imply a substantial increase in demand for both water and food. Climate change impacts will further stress the water availability enhancing also its conflictual use. The agricultural sector is the biggest and least efficient water user, accounts for around 24% of total water use in Europe, peaking at 80% in the southern regions.</p><p>This paper shows the implementation of a system for real-time operative irrigation water management at high spatial and temporal able to monitor the crop water needs reducing the irrigation losses and increasing the water use efficiency, according to different agronomic practices supporting different level of water users from irrigation consortia to single farmers. The system couples together satellite (land surface temperature LST and vegetation information) and ground data, with pixel wise hydrological crop soil water energy balance model. In particular, the SAFY (Simple Algorithm for Yield) crop model has been coupled with the pixel wise energy water balance FEST-EWB model, which assimilate satellite LST for its soil parameters calibration. The essence of this coupled modelling is that the SAFY provides the leaf area index (LAI) evolution in time used by the FEST-EWB for evapotranspiration computation while FEST-EWB model provides soil moisture (SM) to SAFY model for computing crop grow for assigned water content.</p><p>The FEST-EWB-SAFY has been firstly calibrated in specific fields of Chiese (maize crop) and Capitanata (tomatoes) where ground measurements of evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop yields are available, as well as LAI from Sentinel2-Landsat 7 and 8 data. The FEST-EWB-SAFY model has then been validated also on several fields of the RICA farms database in the two Italian consortia, where the economic data are available plus the crop yield. Finally, the modelled maps of LAI have then been validated over the whole Consortium area (Chiese and Capitanata) against satellite data of LAI from Landsat 7 and 8, and Sentinel-2.</p><p>Optimized irrigation volumes are assessed based on a soil moisture thresholds criterion, allowing to reduce the passages over the field capacity threshold reducing the percolation flux with a saving of irrigation volume without affecting evapotranspiration and so that the crop production. The implemented strategy has shown a significative irrigation water saving, also in this area where a traditional careful use of water is assessed.</p><p>The activity is part of the European project RET-SIF (www.retsif.polimi.it).</p>

scholarly journals High-Throughput Phenotyping of Crop Water Use Efficiency via Multispectral Drone Imagery and a Daily Soil Water Balance Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Thorp ◽  
Alison Thompson ◽  
Sara Harders ◽  
Andrew French ◽  
Richard Ward
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use Efficiency ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Water Use ◽  
High Throughput ◽  
Soil Water Balance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Crop Water Use ◽  
Use Efficiency

Improvement of crop water use efficiency (CWUE), defined as crop yield per volume of water used, is an important goal for both crop management and breeding. While many technologies have been developed for measuring crop water use in crop management studies, rarely have these techniques been applied at the scale of breeding plots. The objective was to develop a high-throughput methodology for quantifying water use in a cotton breeding trial at Maricopa, AZ, USA in 2016 and 2017, using evapotranspiration (ET) measurements from a co-located irrigation management trial to evaluate the approach. Approximately weekly overflights with an unmanned aerial system provided multispectral imagery from which plot-level fractional vegetation cover ( f c ) was computed. The f c data were used to drive a daily ET-based soil water balance model for seasonal crop water use quantification. A mixed model statistical analysis demonstrated that differences in ET and CWUE could be discriminated among eight cotton varieties ( p < 0 . 05 ), which were sown at two planting dates and managed with four irrigation levels. The results permitted breeders to identify cotton varieties with more favorable water use characteristics and higher CWUE, indicating that the methodology could become a useful tool for breeding selection.

Implications to stormwater management as a result of lot scale rainwater tank systems: a case study in Western Sydney, Australia

2012 ◽  
Vol 65 (8) ◽  
pp. 1475-1482 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. van der Sterren ◽  
A. Rahman ◽  
G. R. Dennis
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
City Council ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Rainwater Tank ◽  
Discharge Volume ◽  
Water Use Pattern ◽  
Rainwater Tanks

Rainwater tanks are increasingly adopted in Australia to reduce potable water demand and are perceived to reduce the volume of stormwater discharge from developments. This paper investigates the water balance of rainwater tanks, in particular the possible impacts these tanks could have in controlling the stormwater discharge volume. The study collected water quantity data from two sites in the Hawkesbury City Council area, New South Wales, Australia and utilised the collected data in a simple water balance model to assess the effectiveness of rainwater tanks in reducing the stormwater discharge volume. The results indicate that a significant reduction in discharge volume from a lot scale development can be achieved if the rainwater tank is connected to multiple end-uses, but is minimal when using irrigation alone. In addition, the commonly used volumetric runoff coefficient of 0.9 was found to over-estimate the runoff from the roof areas and to thereby under-estimate the available volume within the rainwater tanks for retention or detention. Also, sole reliance on the water in the rainwater tanks can make the users aware of their water use pattern and water availability, resulting in significant reductions in water use as the supply dwindles, through self-imposed water restrictions.

SIM: smart irrigation from soil moisture forecast using satellite and hydro –meteorological modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Mancini ◽  
Chiara Corbari ◽  
Alessandro Ceppi ◽  
Gabriele Lombardi ◽  
Josè Sobrino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Fresh Vegetables

&lt;p&gt;The conflicting use of water is becoming more and more evident, also in regions that are traditionally rich in water. With the world&amp;#8217;s population projected to increase to 8.5 billion by 2030, the simultaneous growth in income will imply a substantial increase in demand for both water and food (expected to increase by 70% by 2050). Climate change impacts will further stress the water availability enhancing also its conflictual use. The agricultural sector, the biggest and least efficient water user, accounts for around 24% of total water use in Europe, peaking at 80% in the southern regions, is likely to face important challenges in order to sustain food production and parsimonious use of water.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The paper shows the development of a system for operative irrigation water management able to monitor and forecast the crop water need reducing the irrigation losses and increasing the water use efficiency. The system couples together satellite and ground data, with pixel wise hydrological soil water balance model using recent scientifically outcomes on soil moisture retrieval from satellite data and hydrological modelling. Discussion on the methodological approach based on the satellite land surface temperature LST, ground evapotranspiration measures, and pixel wise hydrological modelling is provided proving the reliability of the forecasting system and its benefits.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The activity is part of the European Chinese collaborative project (SIM, Smart Irrigation Modelling, www.sim.polimi.it) which has as main objective the parsimonious use of agricultural water through an operational web tool to reduce the use of water, fertilizer and energy keeping a constant crop yield. The system provides in real-time the present and forecasted irrigation water requirements at high spatial and temporal resolutions with forecast horizons from few up to thirty days, according to different agronomic practices supporting different level of water users from irrigation consortia to single farmers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The system is applied in different experimental sites which are located in Italy, the Netherlands, China and Spain, which are characterized by different climatic conditions, water availability, crop types and irrigation schemes. This also thanks to the collaboration of several stakeholders as the Italian ANBI, Capitanata and Chiese irrigation consortia and Dutch Aa and Maas water authority&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The results are shown for two case studies in Italy and in China The Italian ones is the Sud Fortore District of the Capitanata Irrigation consortium which covers an area of about 50&amp;#8217;000 hectares with flat topography, hot summer and warm winter, mainly irrigated with pressurized aqueduct. The district is an intensive cultivation area, mainly devoted to wheat, tomatoes and fresh vegetables cultivation The Chinese one is in the Hehie Daman district covering an area of 20000 ha with fixed time flooding irrigation.&lt;/p&gt;

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