From Micro-level Weather Shocks to Macroeconomic Impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Harding
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
National Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Weather Shocks ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
The Us ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Agricultural Yields ◽  
The Impact

<p>Weather matters at the <em>local</em> level. Microeconomic climate econometric analyses find evidence that weather has localized effects on labor supply, agricultural yields, mortality rates, and other socio-economic measures. However, macroeconomic analyses at the national level find no evidence that weather affects macroeconomic aggregates, such as GDP or aggregate productivity in the US and other developed economies. These results present a seeming contradiction. In this paper, I develop a general equilibrium theoretical model of an economy with localized weather shocks to bridge the gap between microeconomic and macroeconomic studies. The theoretical model provides a simple, modular framework for aggregating weather shock impacts. I apply the findings to an empirical setting in the US, a prime example of the contradictory findings. I first estimate the microeconomic impacts of weather on labor productivity growth across county-industry pairs in the US from 2002 to 2017. I then apply these to construct annual estimates of the impact of weather shocks across the economy on US GDP according to the theoretical framework. I construct confidence intervals using the estimated microeconomic impact uncertainty. Across the sample years, I find no evidence that the annual impacts are distinct from $0. I then deconstruct the aggregate impacts, again following the theoretical framework, to examine what generates this no-effect result. I find consistent evidence of statistically significant but heterogeneous effects across a majority of counties and industries. For example, within a given year, over two-thirds of counties are consistently and significantly impacted by their local weather. This effect is positive for some counties and negative for others. I show that it is the aggregation of these heterogeneous impacts across the spatial distribution and industrial composition of the economy that masks the impact of weather. This finding highlights the importance of understanding micro-level economic impacts and changes in the composition of economic activity for projections of future macroeconomic climate change impacts.</p>

An Examination of the Nature of Trust in Buyer–Seller Relationships

1997 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia M. Doney ◽  
Joseph P. Cannon
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Purchase Intentions ◽  
Supplier Performance ◽  
Several Variables ◽  
Integrate Theory ◽  
Selection Decision ◽  
The Impact

The authors integrate theory developed in several disciplines to determine five cognitive processes through which industrial buyers can develop trust of a supplier firm and its salesperson. These processes provide a theoretical framework used to identify antecedents of trust. The authors also examine the impact of supplier firm and salesperson trust on a buying firm's current supplier choice and future purchase intentions. The theoretical model is tested on data collected from more than 200 purchasing managers. The authors find that several variables influence the development of supplier firm and salesperson trust. Trust of the supplier firm and trust of the salesperson (operating indirectly through supplier firm trust) influence a buyer's anticipated future interaction with the supplier. However, after controlling for previous experience and supplier performance, neither trust of the selling firm nor its salesperson influence the current supplier selection decision.

scholarly journals Medical costs of keeping the US economy open during COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangzhuo Chen ◽  
Anil Vullikanti ◽  
Stefan Hoops ◽  
Henning Mortveit ◽  
Bryan Lewis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Health States ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Hospital Referral Region ◽  
Hospital Referral ◽  
The Us ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We use an individual based model and national level epidemic simulations to estimate the medical costs of keeping the US economy open during COVID-19 pandemic under different counterfactual scenarios. We model an unmitigated scenario and 12 mitigation scenarios which differ in compliance behavior to social distancing strategies and in the duration of the stay-home order. Under each scenario we estimate the number of people who are likely to get infected and require medical attention, hospitalization, and ventilators. Given the per capita medical cost for each of these health states, we compute the total medical costs for each scenario and show the tradeoffs between deaths, costs, infections, compliance and the duration of stay-home order. We also consider the hospital bed capacity of each Hospital Referral Region (HRR) in the US to estimate the deficit in beds each HRR will likely encounter given the demand for hospital beds. We consider a case where HRRs share hospital beds among the neighboring HRRs during a surge in demand beyond the available beds and the impact it has in controlling additional deaths.

scholarly journals Main motivating factors which affect employee satisfaction: Case studies in DongNai province inspectorate

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (X2) ◽  
pp. 63-72
Author(s):  
Thang Ngoc Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Employee Satisfaction ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Social Position ◽  
Motivating Factors ◽  
Good Relationship ◽  
Professional Environment ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to build a theoretical framework to explore some main motivating factors which affect employee satisfaction in DongNai Province Inspectorate. The researcher employs meta-analysis methods to utilise valuable findings from previous overseas and domestic studies. The proposed theoretical framework is based on Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs (1943), ERG (1969), Kovach (1987), Public service motivation (1990). Simultaneously, there is a modification in order to fit into the context of DongNai Province Inspectorate. The suggested theoretical model indicates elements including promotion, social position, public serving, interesting work, good relationship and responsibilities. Employee satisfaction in DongNai Province Inspectorate is mostly affected by “interesting work”, because professional environment makes people feel secure to work in an organization. The impact of other factors is in a descending order as follows: promotion, public serving, social position, responsibilities and good relationship.

Does firm's philanthropy lead to more missions: theory and evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling-Yun He ◽  
Hongzhen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Corporate Philanthropy ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pollution Emission ◽  
Pollution Emissions ◽  
The Impact

PurposeInspired by the comparison of charity donations among candidates in rural elections, the authors linked the non-profit motives of charity to corporate pollution emissions. And on this basis, the authors aim to provide theoretical and empirical explanations for the relationship between corporate philanthropy and pollution. The authors find that the desire to pursue more pollution emissions stimulates the firm's philanthropy, which is similar to the public welfare donations in rural elections.Design/methodology/approachFirstly, the authors construct a game-theoretical framework consisting of an entrepreneur and a bureaucrat to study the environmental cost of corporate philanthropy through the impact on pollution emission by the firm. Secondly, the authors used various empirical methods, including hybrid OLS, IV-2SLS, PSM, etc., to empirically test the impact of a firm's philanthropy on corporate pollution emissions. Finally, the authors use the output and abatement input as intermediary variables and apply the intermediary effect model to test the impact mechanism between corporate philanthropy and corporate pollution emissions.FindingsTheoretical model finds that the firm invests more in philanthropy discharges more emissions when the theoretical model is in political equilibrium. Besides, empirical results show that corporate philanthropy will lead to more pollution emissions by reducing abatement input and increasing production. Finally, the heterogeneity test finds that compared with state-owned enterprises, the intention of non-state-owned enterprises' philanthropy for more pollution emission is more obvious. Moreover, the improvement of regional environmental regulation can significantly inhibit the realization of corporate philanthropy's poor motive.Practical implicationsThe results have obvious policy implications for China's future policy-making. Firstly, regulatory agencies should pay close attention to the charitable behaviors of firms with serious negative environmental externalities, and prevent them from replacing more pollution emissions with philanthropy. Besides, due to weak environmental supervision in rural areas, rural polluting enterprises will be more inclined to make charitable donations to the village collective to obtain more emission rights. Therefore, the government should strengthen environmental supervision in rural areas to prevent enterprises from wanton pollution.Originality/valueBy constructing a game-theoretical framework consisting of an entrepreneur and a bureaucrat, the authors expound on corporate philanthropy's pollution motivation and decision-making mechanism for the first time in theory. Besides, this paper finds that the desire to pursue more pollution emissions also stimulates the firm's philanthropy. This paper expands the literature on corporate charitable donation motivations.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on the US and Texas Economy: A General Equilibrium Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 697-713
Author(s):  
Lirong Liu ◽  
◽  
Steven Shwiff ◽  
Stephanie Shwiff ◽  
Maryfrances Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
National Level ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Food Services ◽  
The Us ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Current Impact ◽  
Quantitative Economics ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on the US and Texas economy using a computable general equilibrium model, REMI PI+. We consider three scenarios based on economic forecasts from various sources, including the University of Michigan’s RSQE (Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics), IMF, and the Wi orld Bank. We report a GDP loss of $106 million (a 6% decline) with 1.2 million jobs lost (6.6%) in Texas in 2020. At the national level, GDP loss is $996 billion (a 5% decline) with 11.5 million jobs lost (5.5%) in the same year. By 2026, the aggregate total GDP loss in Texas ranges from $378 to $629 million. The estimated unemployment rate in Texas in 2021 ranges from 5% to 7.7%, depending on modeling assumptions. The granularity of the CGE results allow examination of the most and least impacted industries. Health Care and Social Assistance, Construction, and Accommodation and Food Services incur the most job loss while State and Local Government and Farm will likely see an increase in jobs for 2020. These insights separate our work from most current impact studies.

scholarly journals Theoretical Aspects of the Functioning of Startup Ecosystem

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-38
Author(s):  
I. V. Marakhina
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Small Business ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Detailed Assessment ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
The Impact

The article examines the startup ecosystem and identifies its characteristics which determine the effectiveness and success of startups - the main producing elements of the system. The author points out the differences between startups and other small business entities, highlights their strengths and weaknesses, justifies the need to consider them within the ecosystems. The author identifies the micro and macro levels of the startup ecosystem which depend on the nature of the impact on startups. At the same time the article focuses on the development of the ecosystem itself, the factors that influence it are highlighted. The analysis of the elements of the startup ecosystem is carried out, the requirements for them are described, based on the results of the study is proposed a theoretical model of the startup ecosystem. The main characteristics of startups in the ecosystem are highlighted. The nature of relations with organizations and events providing startups with resources - the micro level of the ecosystem are described. A detailed assessment of the role of micro-level elements and their characteristics is given. The proposed model can be used to assess the level of development of a particular ecosystem, search for bottlenecks and problems of its functioning, and develop recommendations for creating and developing a startup ecosystem.

scholarly journals Medical Costs of Keeping the US Economy Open During COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangzhuo Chen ◽  
Anil Vullikanti ◽  
Stefan Hoops ◽  
Henning Mortveit ◽  
Bryan Lewis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Health States ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Hospital Referral Region ◽  
Hospital Referral ◽  
The Us ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
The Impact

We use an individual based model and national level epidemic simulations to estimate the medical costs of keeping the US economy open during COVID-19 pandemic under different counterfactual scenarios. We model an unmitigated scenario and 12 mitigation scenarios which differ in compliance behavior to social distancing strategies and to the duration of the stay-home order. Under each scenario we estimate the number of people who are likely to get infected and require medical attention, hospitalization, and ventilators. Given the per capita medical cost for each of these health states, we compute the total medical costs for each scenario and show the tradeoffs between deaths, costs, infections, compliance and the duration of stay-home order. We also consider the hospital bed capacity of each Hospital Referral Region (HRR) in the US to estimate the deficit in beds each HRR will likely encounter given the demand for hospital beds. We consider a case where HRRs share hospital beds among the neighboring HRRs during a surge in demand beyond the available beds and the impact it has in controlling additional deaths.

Economic Voting

2019 ◽  
pp. 246-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck ◽  
Mary Stegmaier
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Economic Vote ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

We examine the economics and elections connection, often referred to as economic voting, via a review of key studies by economists and political scientists, focusing on key generalizations applicable across democracies. Early work (1930s–1960s) was exploratory, seeking to establish whether economics mattered for elections, in the examination of individual country studies. In two strands of later work, one (1970–1990) developed “vote-popularity functions” over time; another (1980–2000) researched micro-level economic voting in national election surveys. Leading, global generalizations began to emerge in the contemporary period (2000s–2010s), such as the following: sociotropic retrospective economic evaluations dominate the economic vote choice, the economic vote itself can vary with clarity of policy responsibility, and the strong research results at the national level mirror results at the individual voter level. Currently, questions of the impact of economic crisis, and further dimensions of the economic vote, such as positional or patrimonial voting, are under serious consideration.

The Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles E. Loeffler ◽  
Daniel S. Nagin
Keyword(s):  
Deleterious Effect ◽  
Prison Population ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Formerly Incarcerated ◽  
Pretrial Detention ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

The US prison population stands at 1.43 million persons, with an additional 740,000 persons in local jails. Nearly all will eventually return to society. This review examines the available evidence on how the experience of incarceration is likely to impact the probability that formerly incarcerated individuals will reoffend. Our focus is on two types of studies, those based on the random assignments of cases to judges, called judge instrumental-variable studies, and those based on discontinuities in sentence severity in sentencing grids, called regression discontinuity studies. Both types of studies are designed to account for selection bias in nonexperimental estimates of the impact of incarceration on reoffending. Most such studies find that the experience of postconviction imprisonment has little impact on the probability of recidivism. A smaller number of studies do, however, find significant effects, both positive and negative. The negative, recidivism-reducing effects are mostly in settings in which rehabilitative programming is emphasized and the positive, criminogenic effects are found in settings in which such programming is not emphasized. The findings of studies of pretrial incarceration are more consistent—most find a deleterious effect on postrelease reoffending. We also conclude that additional work is needed to better understand the heterogeneous effects of incarceration as well as the mechanisms through which incarceration effects, when observed, are generated. For policy, our conclusion of the generally deleterious effect of pretrial detention adds to a larger body of evidence pointing to the social value of limiting. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 5 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals The impact of shipyard and shipowner heterogeneity on contracting prices in the newbuilding market

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 58-78
Author(s):  
Roar Adland ◽  
Kristian Norland ◽  
Even Sætrevik
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of shipyard and shipowner heterogeneity on the price formation for individual newbuilding contracts. Design/methodology/approach The model controls for the shipbuilding market cycle, input costs, firm size, yard experience and contract-specific variables and captures the impact of yard and owner heterogeneity in fixed-effects regressions. The data sample contains contract information on 3,759 tankers, bulkers and container vessels constructed at 77 shipyards between 1990 and 2014. Findings Although the newbuilding price benchmarks (market conditions) and gross domestic product per capita (salary costs) are influential covariates, the main conclusion is that shipyards and, particularly, shipowners play an influential role on the US$ per Compensated Gross Tonnage price level in individual contracts. Originality/value The paper represents the first study of the impact of buyer and seller heterogeneity at the micro level in the shipbuilding market.

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