Assessment of nominal data requirements for robust estimation of fractional snow cover in alpine-forested terrain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elzbieta Wisniewski ◽  
Wit Wisniewski
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Linear Modeling ◽  
Nominal Data ◽  
Fractional Snow Cover ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Input Variables

<p>The presented research examines what minimum combination of input variables are required to obtain state-of-the-art fractional snow cover (FSC) estimates for heterogeneous alpine-forested terrains. Currently, one of the most accurate FSC estimators for alpine regions is based on training an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that can deconvolve the relationships among numerous compounded and possibly non-linear bio-geophysical relations encountered in alpine terrain. Under the assumption that the ANN optimally extracts available information from its input data, we can exploit the ANN as a tool to assess the contributions toward FSC estimation of each of the data sources, and combinations thereof. By assessing the quality of the modeled FSC estimates versus ground equivalent data, suitable combinations of input variables can be identified. High spatial resolution IKONOS images are used to estimate snow cover for ANN training and validation, and also for error assessment of the ANN FSC results. Input variables are initially chosen representing information already incorporated into leading snow cover estimators (ex. two multispectral bands for NDSI, etc.). Additional variables such as topographic slope, aspect, and shadow distribution are evaluated to observe the ANN as it accounts for illumination incidence and directional reflectance of surfaces affecting the viewed radiance in complex terrain. Snow usually covers vegetation and underlying geology partially, therefore the ANN also has to resolve spectral mixtures of unobscured surfaces surrounded by snow. Multispectral imagery if therefore acquired in the fall prior to the first snow of the season and are included in the ANN analyses for assessing the baseline reflectance values of the environment that later become modified by the snow. In this study, nine representative scenarios of input data are selected to analyze the FSC performance. Numerous selections of input data combinations produced good results attesting to the powerful ability of ANNs to extract information and utilize redundancy. The best ANN FSC model performance was achieved when all 15 pre-selected inputs were used. The need for non-linear modeling to estimate FSC was verified by forcing the ANN to behave linearly. The linear ANN model exhibited profoundly decreased FSC performance, indicating that non-linear processing more optimally estimates FSC in alpine-forested environments.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of Model Performance and Implementation of an Optimized Flood Prediction Model Using Data Mining Techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 888-893
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
River Region ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Flooding is a major problem globally, and especially in SuratThani province, Thailand. Along the lower Tapeeriver in SuratThani, the population density is high. Implementing an early warning system can benefit people living along the banks here. In this study, our aim was to build a flood prediction model using artificial neural network (ANN), which would utilize water and stream levels along the lower Tapeeriver to predict floods. This model was used to predict flood using a dataset of rainfall and stream levels measured at local stations. The developed flood prediction model consisted of 4 input variables, namely, the rainfall amounts and stream levels at stations located in the PhraSeang district (X.37A), the Khian Sa district (X.217), and in the Phunphin district (X.5C). Model performance was evaluated using input data spanning a period of eight years (2011–2018). The model performance was compared with support vector machine (SVM), and ANN had better accuracy. The results showed an accuracy of 97.91% for the ANN model; however, for SVM it was 97.54%. Furthermore, the recall (42.78%) and f-measure (52.24%) were better for our model, however, the precision was lower. Therefore, the designed flood prediction model can estimate the likelihood of floods around the lower Tapee river region

scholarly journals Implications of spatial distributions of snow mass and melt rate for snow-cover depletion: theoretical considerations

2004 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 261-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Essery ◽  
John Pomeroy
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Fractional Snow Cover ◽  
Functional Forms ◽  
Snow Distribution ◽  
Theoretical Considerations ◽  
Snow Mass

AbstractSnow becomes patchy while melting, giving a heterogeneous surface with large contrasts in characteristics such as albedo. It is therefore necessary for surface schemes used in atmospheric and hydrological models to represent the influence of heterogeneities in snow cover on scales smaller than the model grid; this is typically done by introducing a snow-cover depletion (SCD) curve relating fractional snow cover to average depth. Here, ad hoc functional forms which have been used for this relationship are first compared with forms obtained for an assumed initial snow distribution undergoing homogeneous melt. The energy available for melt may be heterogeneous, however, and can be influenced by factors that also influence snow distribution, such as slope, aspect and vegetation cover. The modification of SCD curves by spatial variations in melt energy is investigated, and resulting curves are found to be similar to those which would be given by homogeneous melting of a snow cover with greater initial variance. This influence is increased by any negative correlation between snow depth and melt rate.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of erythemal UV-doses for two stations in Austria: a comparison between alpine and urban regions

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (20) ◽  
pp. 6309-6323 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. E. Rieder ◽  
F. Holawe ◽  
S. Simic ◽  
M. Blumthaler ◽  
J. W. Krzyścin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Uv Dose ◽  
Sky Conditions

Abstract. The aim of this study is the reconstruction of past UV-doses for two stations in Austria, Hoher Sonnblick and Vienna, using a physical radiation transfer model. The method uses the modeled UV-dose under clear-sky conditions, cloud modification factors and a correction factor as input variables. To identify the influence of temporal resolution of input data and modification factors, an ensemble of four different modelling approaches was calculated, each with hourly or daily resolution. This is especially important because we found no other study describing the influence of the temporal resolution of input data on model performance. Following the results of the statistical analysis of the evaluation period the model with the highest temporal resolution (HMC) was chosen for the reconstruction of UV-doses. A good agreement between modelled and measured values of erythemally effective UV-doses was found at both stations. In relation to the reference period 1976–1985 an increase in the erythemal UV-dose in Vienna of 11% is visible in the period 1986–1995 and an increase of 17% in the period 1996–2005 can be seen. At Hoher Sonnblick the corresponding increase is 2% and 9%. For the different seasons the strongest increase in erythemal UV-dose has been found for winter and spring season at both stations. Further the influences of total ozone and cloudiness on changes in erythemal UV-doses were analyzed. This analysis showed for both stations, that changes in total ozone had a larger influence on erythemal UV-doses than changes in cloudiness.

QSAR Study of PARP Inhibitors by GA-MLR, GA-SVM and GA-ANN Approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 1088-1105
Author(s):  
Nafiseh Vahedi ◽  
Majid Mohammadhosseini ◽  
Mehdi Nekoei
Keyword(s):  
Present Report ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Parp Inhibitors ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Qsar Study ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Test Set ◽  
Non Linear

Background: The poly(ADP-ribose) polymerases (PARP) is a nuclear enzyme superfamily present in eukaryotes. Methods: In the present report, some efficient linear and non-linear methods including multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were successfully used to develop and establish quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models capable of predicting pEC50 values of tetrahydropyridopyridazinone derivatives as effective PARP inhibitors. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to a rational division of the whole data set and selection of the training and test sets. A genetic algorithm (GA) variable selection method was employed to select the optimal subset of descriptors that have the most significant contributions to the overall inhibitory activity from the large pool of calculated descriptors. Results: The accuracy and predictability of the proposed models were further confirmed using crossvalidation, validation through an external test set and Y-randomization (chance correlations) approaches. Moreover, an exhaustive statistical comparison was performed on the outputs of the proposed models. The results revealed that non-linear modeling approaches, including SVM and ANN could provide much more prediction capabilities. Conclusion: Among the constructed models and in terms of root mean square error of predictions (RMSEP), cross-validation coefficients (Q2 LOO and Q2 LGO), as well as R2 and F-statistical value for the training set, the predictive power of the GA-SVM approach was better. However, compared with MLR and SVM, the statistical parameters for the test set were more proper using the GA-ANN model.

scholarly journals Semi-Automatic Fractional Snow Cover Monitoring from Near-Surface Remote Sensing in Grassland

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2045
Author(s):  
Anaí Caparó Bellido ◽  
Bradley C. Rundquist
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Near Infrared ◽  
Accuracy Assessment ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Field Station ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Fractional Snow Cover ◽  
Rgb Images ◽  
Phenological Metrics

Snow cover is an important variable in both climatological and hydrological studies because of its relationship to environmental energy and mass flux. However, variability in snow cover can confound satellite-based efforts to monitor vegetation phenology. This research explores the utility of the PhenoCam Network cameras to estimate Fractional Snow Cover (FSC) in grassland. The goal is to operationalize FSC estimates from PhenoCams to inform and improve the satellite-based determination of phenological metrics. The study site is the Oakville Prairie Biological Field Station, located near Grand Forks, North Dakota. We developed a semi-automated process to estimate FSC from PhenoCam images through Python coding. Compared with previous research employing RGB images only, our use of the monochrome RGB + NIR (near-infrared) reduced pixel misclassification and increased accuracy. The results had an average RMSE of less than 8% FSC compared to visual estimates. Our pixel-based accuracy assessment showed that the overall accuracy of the images selected for validation was 92%. This is a promising outcome, although not every PhenoCam Network system has NIR capability.

scholarly journals Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of the Forward Osmosis Process to Predict Membrane Flux Using a Novel Combination of Neural Network and Response Surface Methodology Techniques

Membranes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Jasir Jawad ◽  
Alaa H. Hawari ◽  
Syed Javaid Zaidi
Keyword(s):  
Response Surface Methodology ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Forward Osmosis ◽  
Feed Solution ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Membrane Flux ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Rsm Model

The forward osmosis (FO) process is an emerging technology that has been considered as an alternative to desalination due to its low energy consumption and less severe reversible fouling. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and response surface methodology (RSM) have become popular for the modeling and optimization of membrane processes. RSM requires the data on a specific experimental design whereas ANN does not. In this work, a combined ANN-RSM approach is presented to predict and optimize the membrane flux for the FO process. The ANN model, developed based on an experimental study, is used to predict the membrane flux for the experimental design in order to create the RSM model for optimization. A Box–Behnken design (BBD) is used to develop a response surface design where the ANN model evaluates the responses. The input variables were osmotic pressure difference, feed solution (FS) velocity, draw solution (DS) velocity, FS temperature, and DS temperature. The R2 obtained for the developed ANN and RSM model are 0.98036 and 0.9408, respectively. The weights of the ANN model and the response surface plots were used to optimize and study the influence of the operating conditions on the membrane flux.

scholarly journals The Impact of Probability Density Functions Assessment on Model Performance for Slope Stability Analysis

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 322
Author(s):  
Evelina Volpe ◽  
Luca Ciabatta ◽  
Diana Salciarini ◽  
Stefania Camici ◽  
Elisabetta Cattoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Probability Density Functions ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Density Functions ◽  
Umbria Region ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
The Impact

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall events represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to the climate change effect on territories, as several studies demonstrate that an increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall-induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria region of central Italy. The study revealed that the use of uniform pdfs for the random input variables, often considered when a detailed geotechnical characterization for the soil is not available, could be inappropriate.

Modeling of lime production process using artificial neural network

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abolghasem Daeichian ◽  
Rana Shahramfar ◽  
Elham Heidari
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Production Process ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Rotary Kilns ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Lime Production

Abstract Lime is a significant material in many industrial processes, including steelmaking by blast furnace. Lime production through rotary kilns is a standard method in industries, yet it has depreciation, high energy consumption, and environmental pollution. A model of the lime production process can help to not only increase our knowledge and awareness but also can help reduce its disadvantages. This paper presents a black-box model by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the lime production process considering pre-heater, rotary kiln, and cooler parameters. To this end, actual data are collected from Zobahan Isfahan Steel Company, Iran, which consists of 746 data obtained in a duration of one year. The proposed model considers 23 input variables, predicting the amount of produced lime as an output variable. The ANN parameters such as number of hidden layers, number of neurons in each layer, activation functions, and training algorithm are optimized. Then, the sensitivity of the optimum model to the input variables is investigated. Top-three input variables are selected on the basis of one-group sensitivity analysis and their interactions are studied. Finally, an ANN model is developed considering the top-three most effective input variables. The mean square error of the proposed models with 23 and 3 inputs are equal to 0.000693 and 0.004061, respectively, which shows a high prediction capability of the two proposed models.

scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2332
Author(s):  
Cecilia Martinez-Castillo ◽  
Gonzalo Astray ◽  
Juan Carlos Mejuto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

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