Model comparison of volcanic aerosol forcing and climate impact of tropical and extratropical eruptions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihong Zhuo ◽  
Herman Fuglestvedt ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Michael J. Mills ◽  
Kirstin Krüger
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Central American Volcanic Arc

<p>Major volcanic eruptions increase sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. This causes a large-scale dimming effect with significant surface cooling and stratosphere warming. However, the climate impact differs for tropical and extratropical eruptions, and depends on the eruption season and height, and volcanic volatiles injections. In order to study different volcanic aerosol forcing and their climate impact, we perform simulations based on the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the version 6 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) with prognostic stratospheric aerosol and chemistry. In this study, explosive eruptions at 14.6 N and 63.6 N in January and July injecting 17 MT and 200 MT SO<sub>2</sub> at 24 km with and without halogens are simulated, in line with Central American Volcanic Arc and Icelandic volcanic eruptions. Simulated changes in the stratospheric sulfate and halogen burdens, and related impacts on aerosol optical depth, radiation, ozone and surface climate are analyzed. These simulated volcanic eruption cases will be compared with simulations based on the aerosol-climate model MAECHAM5-HAM.</p>

Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol models response to different sulfur injection amount and altitude distribution during volcanic eruption

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Quaglia ◽  
Christoph Brühl ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
Henning Franke ◽  
Anton Laakso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Altitude Distribution ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Intercomparison Project

<p>Large magnitude tropical volcanic eruptions emit sulphur dioxide and other gases directly into the stratosphere, creating a long-lived volcanic aerosol cloud which scatter incoming solar radiation, absorbs outgoing terrestrial radiation, and can strongly affect the composition of the stratosphere.</p><p>Such major volcanic enhancements of the stratospheric aerosol layer have strong “direct effects” on climate via these influences on radiative transfer, primarily surface cooling via the reduced insolation, but also have a range of indirect effects, due to the volcanic aerosol cloud’s effects on stratospheric circulation, dynamics and chemistry.</p><p>In this study, we investigate the 3 largest volcanic enhancements to the stratospheric aerosol layer in the last 100 years (Mt Agung 1963; Mt El Chichón 1982; Mt Pinatubo 1991), comparing co-ordinated simulations within the so-called HErSEA experiments (Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment) several national climate modelling centres carried out for the model intercomparison project ISA-MIP.</p><p>The HErSEA experiment saw participating models performing interactive stratospheric aerosol simulations of each of the volcanic aerosol clouds with common upper-, mid- and lower-estimate amounts and injection heights of sulfur dioxide, in order to better understand known differences among modelling studies for which initial emission gives best agreement with observations. </p><p>First, we compare results of several models HErSEA simulations with a range of observations, with the aim to find where there is agreement between the models and where there are differences, at the different initial sulfur injection amount and altitude distribution.</p><p>In this way, we could understand the differences and limitations in the mechanisms that controls the dynamical, microphysical and chemical processes of stratospheric aerosol layer.</p>

Stratospheric residence time and the lifetime of volcanic aerosol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Yue Jia ◽  
Susann Tegetmeier
Keyword(s):  
Residence Time ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Radiative Impact ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Common Era

<p>The cumulative radiative impact of major volcanic eruptions depends strongly on the length of time volcanic sulfate aerosol remains in the stratosphere. Observations of aerosol from recent eruptions have been used to suggest that residence time depends on the latitude of the volcanic eruption, with tropical eruptions producing aerosol loading that persists longer than that from extratropical eruptions. However, the limited number of eruptions observed make it difficult to disentangle the roles of latitude and injection height in controlling aerosol lifetime. Here we use satellite observations and model experiments to explore the relationship between eruption latitude, injection height and resulting residence time of stratospheric aerosol. We find that contrary to earlier interpretations of observations, the residence time of aerosol from major tropical eruptions like Pinatubo (1991) is on the order of 24 months. Model results suggest that the residence time is greatly sensitive to the height of the sulfur injection, especially within the lowest few kilometers of the stratosphere. As injection heights and latitudes are unknown for the majority of eruptions over the common era, we estimate the impact of this uncertainty on volcanic aerosol forcing reconstructions. </p>

scholarly journals Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 4049-4070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Single Scattering ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Asymmetry Factor ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Aerosol Properties

Abstract. Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on the Earth's climate. To include the effects of volcanic eruptions in climate model simulations, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) forcing generator provides stratospheric aerosol optical properties as a function of time, latitude, height, and wavelength for a given input list of volcanic eruption attributes. EVA is based on a parameterized three-box model of stratospheric transport and simple scaling relationships used to derive mid-visible (550 nm) aerosol optical depth and aerosol effective radius from stratospheric sulfate mass. Precalculated look-up tables computed from Mie theory are used to produce wavelength-dependent aerosol extinction, single scattering albedo, and scattering asymmetry factor values. The structural form of EVA and the tuning of its parameters are chosen to produce best agreement with the satellite-based reconstruction of stratospheric aerosol properties following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and with prior millennial-timescale forcing reconstructions, including the 1815 eruption of Tambora. EVA can be used to produce volcanic forcing for climate models which is based on recent observations and physical understanding but internally self-consistent over any timescale of choice. In addition, EVA is constructed so as to allow for easy modification of different aspects of aerosol properties, in order to be used in model experiments to help advance understanding of what aspects of the volcanic aerosol are important for the climate system.

Insights on the timing, global sulfate lifecycle and climate impact of Earth’s largest (pre-) historic volcanic eruptions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sigl ◽  
Florian Adolphi ◽  
Andrea Burke ◽  
Jihong Cole-Dai ◽  
Hubertus Fischer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
The European Union ◽  
National Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Earth Planet

<p>Extratropical volcanic eruptions are commonly thought to be less effective at driving large-scale surface cooling than tropical eruptions, and only the latter are commonly thought to be able to distribute sulfate globally. Here, we test both of these assumptions using a network of ice cores from the polar regions of Antarctica and Greenland covering the past 15’000 years and climate-aerosol modeling. We employ state-of-the-art analyses of trace elements, cryptoptephra and sulphur isotopes (Burke et al., 2019) to gain new insights into the timing of past eruptions, their stratospheric sulphur mass injections and subsequent sulphate aerosol lifecycle. We use this information to estimate the climate impact potential due to negative radiative forcing caused by Earth’s largest volcanic eruptions since the last Glacial. Our analysis encompasses over 1’000 eruptions and include the caldera-forming eruptions of Okmok II (Alaska, 43 BCE, VEI=6, 53°N; McConnell et al., 2020), Aniakchak II (Alaska, 1600s BCE, VEI=6, 57°N), Crater Lake (Mazama, Oregon, 5600s BCE, VEI=7, 43°N) and Laacher See (Germany, c. 13 ka BP, VEI=6, 50°N).</p><p>We use our reconstructed radiative forcing and the coupled earth system models MPI-ESM1.2 and CESM (version 1.2.2) to analyze the climatic impact caused by these eruptions and compare the simulated temperature response with temperature reconstructions based on ultra-long tree-ring chronologies. Finally, based on these comparisons, we propose a number of stratigraphic age tie-points to anchor ice-core chronologies from Greenland (GICC05) and Antarctica (WD2014) to the absolute dated tree-ring chronology. We thereby aim to improve proxy synchronization throughout the Holocene -- a prerequisite for detection and attribution studies -- and invite the paleo-climate community to update climate proxy records based on ice cores to the latest chronologies.    </p><p>The European Research Council Grant 820047 under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program funded the research project THERA - Timing of Holocene Volcanic eruptions and their radiative aerosol forcing. </p><p><strong> </strong></p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><p>Burke, A., Moore, K. A., Sigl, M., Nita, D. C., McConnell, J. R., and Adkins, J. F.: Stratospheric eruptions from tropical and extra-tropical volcanoes constrained using high-resolution sulfur isotopes in ice cores, <em>Earth Planet Sc Lett</em>, 521, 113-119, 2019.</p><p>McConnell, J. R., Sigl, M., Plunkett, G., Burke, A., Kim, W., Raible, C. C., Wilson, A. I., Manning, J. G., Ludlow, F. M., Chellman, N. J., Innes, H. M., Yang, Z., Larsen, J. F., Schaefer, J. R., Kipfstuhl, S., Mojtabavi, S., Wilhelms, F., Opel, T., Meyer, H., and Steffensen, J. P.: Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom, <em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</em>, 117, 15443-15449, 2020.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Aubry ◽  
John Staunton-Sykes ◽  
Lauren R. Marshall ◽  
Jim Haywood ◽  
Nathan Luke Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Column Height ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Eruptive Column ◽  
Column Dynamics

AbstractExplosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions.

scholarly journals Model simulations of the chemical and aerosol microphysical evolution of the Sarychev Peak 2009 eruption cloud compared to in situ and satellite observations

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 3223-3247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibaut Lurton ◽  
Fabrice Jégou ◽  
Gwenaël Berthet ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Renard ◽  
Lieven Clarisse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particle Size ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Stratospheric Chemistry ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sarychev Peak

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions impact climate through the injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2), which is oxidized to form sulfuric acid aerosol particles that can enhance the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD). Besides large-magnitude eruptions, moderate-magnitude eruptions such as Kasatochi in 2008 and Sarychev Peak in 2009 can have a significant impact on stratospheric aerosol and hence climate. However, uncertainties remain in quantifying the atmospheric and climatic impacts of the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption due to limitations in previous model representations of volcanic aerosol microphysics and particle size, whilst biases have been identified in satellite estimates of post-eruption SAOD. In addition, the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption co-injected hydrogen chloride (HCl) alongside SO2, whose potential stratospheric chemistry impacts have not been investigated to date. We present a study of the stratospheric SO2–particle–HCl processing and impacts following Sarychev Peak eruption, using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) – Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) sectional aerosol microphysics model (with no a priori assumption on particle size). The Sarychev Peak 2009 eruption injected 0.9 Tg of SO2 into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), enhancing the aerosol load in the Northern Hemisphere. The post-eruption evolution of the volcanic SO2 in space and time are well reproduced by the model when compared to Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite data. Co-injection of 27 Gg HCl causes a lengthening of the SO2 lifetime and a slight delay in the formation of aerosols, and acts to enhance the destruction of stratospheric ozone and mono-nitrogen oxides (NOx) compared to the simulation with volcanic SO2 only. We therefore highlight the need to account for volcanic halogen chemistry when simulating the impact of eruptions such as Sarychev on stratospheric chemistry. The model-simulated evolution of effective radius (reff) reflects new particle formation followed by particle growth that enhances reff to reach up to 0.2 µm on zonal average. Comparisons of the model-simulated particle number and size distributions to balloon-borne in situ stratospheric observations over Kiruna, Sweden, in August and September 2009, and over Laramie, USA, in June and November 2009 show good agreement and quantitatively confirm the post-eruption particle enhancement. We show that the model-simulated SAOD is consistent with that derived from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) when both the saturation bias of OSIRIS and the fact that extinction profiles may terminate well above the tropopause are taken into account. Previous modelling studies (involving assumptions on particle size) that reported agreement with (biased) post-eruption estimates of SAOD derived from OSIRIS likely underestimated the climate impact of the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption.

scholarly journals Large variations in volcanic aerosol forcing efficiency due to eruption source parameters and rapid adjustments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Marshall ◽  
Christopher Smith ◽  
Piers Forster ◽  
Thomas Aubry ◽  
Anja Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>The relationship between volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) and volcanic forcing is key to quantify the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions. In their fifth assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses a single scaling factor between volcanic SAOD and effective radiative forcing (ERF) based on climate model simulations of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which may not be appropriate for eruptions of different magnitudes. Using a large-ensemble of aerosol-chemistry-climate simulations of eruptions with different SO<sub>2</sub> emissions, latitudes, emission altitudes and seasons, we find that the effective radiative forcing is on average 21% less than the instantaneous radiative forcing, predominantly due to a positive shortwave cloud adjustment.  In our model, the volcanic SAOD to ERF relationship is non-unique and depends strongly on eruption latitude and season. We recommend a power law fit in the form of ERF = -15.1 × SAOD<sup>0.88</sup> to convert SAOD (in the range of 0.01-0.7) to ERF.</p>

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).</p><p>In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an  umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.</p>

scholarly journals Effect of volcanic aerosol on stratospheric NO<sub>2</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O<sub>5</sub> from 2002–2014 as measured by Odin-OSIRIS and Envisat-MIPAS

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristen Adams ◽  
Adam E. Bourassa ◽  
Chris A. McLinden ◽  
Chris E. Sioris ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infrared Imaging ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
El Chichon

Abstract. Following the large volcanic eruptions of Pinatubo in 1991 and El Chichón in 1982, decreases in stratospheric NO2 associated with enhanced aerosol were observed. The Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (OSIRIS) likewise measured widespread enhancements of stratospheric aerosol following seven volcanic eruptions between 2002 and 2014, although the magnitudes of these eruptions were all much smaller than the Pinatubo and El Chichón eruptions. In order to isolate and quantify the relationship between volcanic aerosol and NO2, NO2 anomalies were calculated using measurements from OSIRIS and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). In the tropics, variability due to the quasi-biennial oscillation was subtracted from the timeseries. OSIRIS profile measurements indicate that the strongest relationships between NO2 and volcanic aerosol extinction were for the layer ~ 3–7 km above the tropopause, where OSIRIS stratospheric NO2 partial columns for ~ 3–7 km above the tropopause were found to be smaller than baseline levels during these aerosol enhancements by up to ~ 60 % with typical Pearson correlation coefficients of R ~ −0.7. MIPAS also observed decreases in NO2 partial columns during periods of affected by volcanic aerosol, with percent differences of up to ~ 25 %. An even stronger relationship was observed between OSIRIS aerosol optical depth and MIPAS N2O5 partial columns, with R ~ −0.9, although no link with MIPAS HNO3 was observed. The variation of OSIRIS NO2 with increasing aerosol was found to be quantitatively consistent with simulations from a photochemical box model in terms of both magnitude and degree of non-linearity.

scholarly journals The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Myriam Khodri ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol dataset for each experiment to eliminate differences in the applied volcanic forcing, and defines a set of initial conditions to determine how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically-forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.

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