D Minus Months: Strategic Planning for Weather-Sensitive Decisions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva D. Regnier ◽  
Joel W. Feldmeier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Sequential Decisions ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Current State ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Made In

General Eisenhower’s decisions to postpone and, one day later, to launch the “D-Day” invasion of Normandy are a gripping illustration of sequential decisions under uncertainty, suitable for any introductory decision analysis class. They’re also the archetypal example of weather-sensitive decision making using a forecast. This paper develops a framework for analyzing weather-sensitive decisions with a focus on the less-familiar strategic decisions that determine how forecasts are produced and what operational alternatives are available so that decision makers can extract value from forecasts. We tell the story of the decisions made in the months before D-Day regarding how to set up the forecasting process and the myriad decisions implicating nation-level resources that prepared Allied forces not just to invade, but to hold open that decision until the last possible hour so that Eisenhower and his staff could use the critical forecasts. Finally, we overview the current state of the weather-forecasting enterprise, the current challenges of interest to decision analysts, and what this means for decision analysts seeking opportunities to help the weather enterprise improve forecasts and to help operational decision makers extract more value from modern weather forecasts.

scholarly journals An Innovative Grey Approach for Group Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Based on the Median of Ratings by Using Python

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Dragiša Stanujkić ◽  
Darjan Karabašević ◽  
Gabrijela Popović ◽  
Predrag S. Stanimirović ◽  
Florentin Smarandache ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Likert Scale ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

Some decision-making problems, i.e., multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) problems, require taking into account the attitudes of a large number of decision-makers and/or respondents. Therefore, an approach to the transformation of crisp ratings, collected from respondents, in grey interval numbers form based on the median of collected scores, i.e., ratings, is considered in this article. In this way, the simplicity of collecting respondents’ attitudes using crisp values, i.e., by applying some form of Likert scale, is combined with the advantages that can be achieved by using grey interval numbers. In this way, a grey extension of MCDA methods is obtained. The application of the proposed approach was considered in the example of evaluating the websites of tourism organizations by using several MCDA methods. Additionally, an analysis of the application of the proposed approach in the case of a large number of respondents, done in Python, is presented. The advantages of the proposed method, as well as its possible limitations, are summarized.

Analysis and Intuition in Strategic Decision Making

2011 ◽  
pp. 1531-1542
Author(s):  
Zita Zoltay Paprika
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Managerial Skills ◽  
Research Scholarship ◽  
Empirical Tests

Many management scholars believe that the process used to make strategic decisions affects the quality of those decisions. However, several authors have observed a lack of research on the strategic decision-making process. Empirical tests of factors that have been hypothesized to affect the way strategic decisions are made are notably absent (Fredrickson, 1985). This article reports the results of a study that attempts to assess the effects of decision-making circumstances, focusing mainly on the approaches applied and the managerial skills and capabilities the decision makers built on during concrete strategic decisionmaking procedures. The study was conducted in California between September 2005 and June 2006 and it was sponsored by a Fulbright research scholarship grant.

scholarly journals OrclassWeb: A Tool Based on the Classification Methodology ORCLASS from Verbal Decision Analysis Framework

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thais Cristina Sampaio Machado ◽  
Plácido Rogerio Pinheiro ◽  
Isabelle Tamanini
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Verbal Decision Analysis ◽  
Human World ◽  
Support Methods ◽  
Day By Day

The decision making is present in every activity of the human world, either in simple day-by-day problems or in complex situations inside of an organization. Sometimes emotions and reasons become hard to separate; therefore decision support methods were created to help decision makers to make complex decisions, and Decision Support Systems (DSS) were created to aid the application of such methods. The paper presents the development of a new tool, which reproduces the procedure to apply the Verbal Decision Analysis (VDA) methodology ORCLASS. The tool, called OrclassWeb, is software that supports the process of the mentioned DSS method and the paper provides proof of concepts, that which presents its reliability with ORCLASS.

An Investigation Study on Clustering and Classification Techniques for Weather Forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 417-421
Author(s):  
S. B. Pooja ◽  
Siva R. V. Balan
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
Simple Observation ◽  
Ensemble Techniques ◽  
Current State ◽  
Clustering And Classification

Weather forecasting is the prediction of atmosphere state for particular location by using principles of physics provided by many statistical and empirical techniques. Weather forecasts are frequently made by collecting quantitative data about current state of atmosphere through scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to illustrate how atmosphere changes in future. Current weather conditions are collected through the observation from the ground, ships, aircraft, radio sounds and satellites. The information is transmitted to the meteorological centers where the data are collected and examined for prediction. There are diverse techniques included in weather forecasting, from relatively simple observation of sky to complex computerized mathematical models. But, the existing techniques failed to predict the weather with higher accuracy and lesser time. In order to improve the prediction performance, the machine learning and ensemble techniques are introduced.

Weather Forecasting by Humans—Heuristics and Decision Making

2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1115-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. Doswell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Psychology ◽  
Multidisciplinary Approach ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Judgment And Decision Making ◽  
Human Cognition ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasters ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Considerable Insight

Abstract The decision-making literature contains considerable information about how humans approach tasks involving uncertainty using heuristics. Although there is some reason to believe that weather forecasters are not identical in all respects to the typical subjects used in judgment and decision-making studies, there also is evidence that weather forecasters are not so different that the existing understanding of human cognition as it relates to making decisions is entirely inapplicable to weather forecasters. Accordingly, some aspects of cognition and decision making are reviewed and considered in terms of how they apply to human weather forecasters, including biases introduced by heuristics. Considerable insight into human forecasting could be gained by applying available studies of the cognitive psychology of decision making. What few studies exist that have used weather forecasters as subjects suggest that further work might well be productive in terms of helping to guide the improvement of weather forecasts by humans. It is concluded that a multidisciplinary approach, involving disciplines outside of meteorology, needs to be developed and supported if there is to be a future role for humans in forecasting the weather.

Rationality and risk-taking in Russia’s first Chechen War: toward a theory of cognitive realism

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-210
Author(s):  
Jason J. Morrissette
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Adequate Explanation ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Cognitive Realism ◽  
Made In

This article seeks to establish a better scholarly understanding of former Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s decision to launch an ill-planned, risky, and ultimately disastrous invasion of the breakaway republic of Chechnya in 1994. Examining the decision-making environment that led up to the invasion, I conclude that while neorealism provides an adequate explanation for Yeltsin’s motives in this case, the decisions that he made in pursuit of these goals do not reflect the logic of rational utility maximization commonly associated with neorealist theory. Instead, I suggest that prospect theory – based on the idea that decision-makers tend to be risk averse when confronted with choices between gains while risk acceptant when confronted with losses – offers significantly more explanatory insight in this case. Thus, the article offers further support for an alternative theoretical approach to international relations that some scholars have termed ‘cognitive realism’, incorporating neorealist motives with a more empirically accurate perspective on the decision-making processes undertaken in pursuit of these motives.

Unraveling the Complexities of Decision Making in Face-to-Face Groups: A Contextual Analysis of Plea-Bargained Sentences

1984 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 912-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter F. Nardulli ◽  
Roy B. Flemming ◽  
James Eisenstein
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Contextual Analysis ◽  
Criminal Case ◽  
Multilevel Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Made In

This article uses a variety of multilevel data collected from a nine-county study of felony courts to examine the joint effects of contextual and individual level (sociopolitical characteristics of decision workers) upon decisions made in face-to-face groups. The research finds that although the sociopolitical characteristics of decision makers (attitudes toward punishment, Machiavellianism, and operating styles) made a difference in the outcome of interactions, their role could not be accessed independent of the contextual factors surrounding the interactions. Some of the most important contextual factors were the kind of criminal case being handled, prosecutor office policies restricting discretion, and the configuration of attributes in the group handling the case. Although the data are wholly derived from the criminal court setting, the implications of the findings for studying decision making in other face-to-face groups are developed.

PRE-COVERAGE ASSESSMENTS OF NEW HOSPITAL INTERVENTIONS ON AUSTRIA: METHODOLOGY AND 3 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Mad ◽  
Sabine Geiger-Gritsch ◽  
Gerda Hinterreiter ◽  
Stefan Mathis-Edenhofer ◽  
Claudia Wild
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Medical Services ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Relevant Evidence ◽  
Objective Evidence ◽  
The Status ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Grade Methodology

Objectives: A new decision-making process was set up by the Austrian Ministry of Health to regulate coverage of new proposed Extra Medical Services (EMS; German: Medizinische Einzel-Leistung [MEL]) in 2008. As part of the annual decision-making process an independent academic institution (LBI-HTA) is evaluating relevant evidence on these new technologies and provides HTAs, including evidence-based recommendations for decision makers.Methods: About ten EMS assessments are performed annually by the LBI-HTA simultaneously between January and March. Each peer-reviewed report consists of a systematic literature review and critical appraisal of evidence using the GRADE methodology. The generation of numerous reports of good quality standards within the short timeframe is achieved by a standardized workflow with predefined assignment of tasks for all participants.Results: In total, the LBI-HTA performed twenty-five EMS assessments on thirty-three different interventions in the last three years. Coverage was recommended with limitation for eleven (33%) interventions, and not recommended for twenty-two (66%) interventions. The federal health commission decided on acceptance or preliminary acceptance of coverage in seven (22%) cases, rejection in eighteen (55%) cases and changed the status to “subject to approval” in seven (24%) cases.Conclusions: Pre-coverage assessment of new hospital interventions was implemented successfully in Austria. It has proved to be a useful tool to support decision makers with objective evidence when deciding whether or not to reimburse medical services.

scholarly journals Proses Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
yola febriani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah ◽  
Rusdinal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative Solutions ◽  
Made In

This article aims to describe how is the process of decision making. Decision making is something that is never separated from human life, both simple decision making and complex problems. Everyone is always faced with the choice to take a decision. To be able to take the right decisions, every person should know the steps. This article presents what the decision-making steps and what is the importance of creative thinking in decision making. Creative thinking will help decision makers to improve the quality and effectiveness of problem solving and decision making results were made. In relation to the process of decision making, creative thinking is needed, especially in identifying problems and develop alternative solutions. The methodology used to arrange this article is Systematic Literature Review (SLR). First, researcher find relevant theories, and then make a conclusion about it, then analyzing, and finally make a new information based researcher analyzing.

scholarly journals Proses Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
yola febriani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah ◽  
Rusdinal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative Solutions ◽  
Made In

This article aims to describe how is the process of decision making. Decision making is something that is never separated from human life, both simple decision making and complex problems. Everyone is always faced with the choice to take a decision. To be able to take the right decision, every person should know the steps. This article presents what the decision making steps and what is the importance of creative thinking in decision making. Creative thinking will help decision makers to improve the quality and effectiveness of problem solving and decision making results were made. In relation to the process of decision making, creative thinking is needed, especially in identifying problems and develop alternative solutions. The methodology used to arrange this article is Systematic Literature Review (SLR). First, researcher find relevant theories, and then make a conclusion about it, then analyzing, and finally make a new information based researcher analyzing

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