scholarly journals Monitoring aseismic creep trend in Ismetpasa and Destek segments throughout the NAF with a large scale GPS network

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasan Hakan Yavaşoğlu ◽  
Mehmet Nurullah Alkan ◽  
Serdar Bilgi ◽  
Öykü Alkan
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Arabian Plate ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Eurasian Plate ◽  
The North ◽  
Fault Parameters ◽  
The World

Abstract. North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is an intersection area between Anatolian and Eurasian plates. Also another plate is responsible for this formation, Arabian plate, which squeezes the Anatolian plate from the south between Eurasian plate and itself. Block boundaries, forming the faults, generally locked to the bottom of seismogenic layer because of the friction between blocks, and responsible for these discharges. However, there are also some unique events observed around the world, which may cause partially or fully free slipping faults. This phenomenon is called aseismic creep, and may occur through the entire seismogenic zone or at least to some depths and is a rare event in the world, with two reported segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF): Ismetpasa and Destek. In this study, we established GPS networks covering these segments and made three campaigns between 2014–2016. Considering the long term geodetic movements of the blocks (Anatolian and Eurasian plates), previous studies for each segment, calculated surface velocities and fault parameters; aseismic creep still continues to some rates, 13.2±3.3 mm/year at Ismetpasa and 9.6±3.1 mm/year at Destek. Results indicates that this aseismic creep behavior will not prevent a medium-large scale earthquake in the long term.

scholarly journals Monitoring aseismic creep trends in the İsmetpaşa and Destek segments throughout the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) with a large-scale GPS network

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-40
Author(s):  
Hasan Hakan Yavaşoğlu ◽  
Mehmet Nurullah Alkan ◽  
Serdar Bilgi ◽  
Öykü Alkan
Keyword(s):  
Creep Behavior ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Arabian Plate ◽  
Seismogenic Layer ◽  
The North ◽  
Fault Parameters ◽  
The World

Abstract. The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is an intersection area between the Anatolian and Eurasian plates. The Arabian Plate, which squeezes the Anatolian Plate from the south between the Eurasian Plate and itself, is also responsible for this formation. This tectonic motion causes the Anatolian Plate to move westwards with almost a 20 mm yr−1 velocity, which has caused destructive earthquakes in history. Block boundaries that form the faults are generally locked to the bottom of the seismogenic layer because of the friction between blocks and are responsible for these discharges. However, there are also some unique events observed around the world, which may cause partially or fully free-slipping faults. This phenomenon is called “aseismic creep” and may occur through the entire seismogenic zone or at least to some depths. Additionally, it is a rare event in the world located in two reported segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which are İsmetpaşa and Destek. In this study, we established GPS networks covering those segments and made three campaigns between 2014 and 2016. Considering the long-term geodetic movements of the blocks (Anatolian and Eurasian plates), surface velocities and fault parameters are calculated. The results of the model indicate that aseismic creep still continues with rates of 13.2±3.3 mm yr−1 at İsmetpaşa and 9.6±3.1 mm yr−1 at Destek. Additionally, aseismic creep behavior is limited to some depths and decays linearly to the bottom of the seismogenic layer at both segments. This study suggests that this aseismic creep behavior will not prevent medium- to large-scale earthquakes in the long term.

scholarly journals Contrasting seismogenic behaviors on the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Henry ◽  
Céline Grall ◽  
M Sinan Özeren ◽  
Volkan Özbey ◽  
Gülsen Uçarkus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flow ◽  
Sedimentary Cover ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Sea Of Marmara ◽  
The North

<p>Since the 1999 Izmit-Kocaeli earthquake, the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) of the North Anatolian Fault system in the Sea of Marmara has been considered at an imminent risk for a large earthquake. Land geodesy has difficulties characterizing the distribution of interseismic loading, and hence of slip deficit, on the offshore faults, and notably on the Istanbul-Silivri segment of the NAF. The need to clarify the status of offshore fault segments has motivated seafloor monitoring experiments and marine geophysical and sedimentological studies, notably in the framework of EMSO consortium and MARSITE and MAREGAMI projects. Results from cross-disciplinary projects have shown that aseismic creep, spatially correlated to active gas venting at the seafloor, occurs on the Western segment of the MMF. This segment is also capable to large earthquake ruptures such as the 1912 event. On the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara, the Istanbul-Silivri and Prince Island segments appear essentially locked. Moreover, the base of the seismogenic zone and locking depth appears to shallow (from 15-20 to 10-15 km) from west to east.</p><p>On one hand, we propose to further evaluate fault slip rates and distribution of locking ratio on individual fault segments using an elastic block model constrained by land geodesy data and marine observations (long-term fault slip rate estimates, local acoustic ranging results). On the other hand, we evaluate the temperature at the seismogenic depths by basin modelling. Results suggest that spatial variations of fault behavior in the Sea of Marmara may result from a combination of factors. First, thermogenic gas generation within the > 6 km thick sedimentary cover in the Western Sea of Marmara may contribute to unlock the shallow part of the fault by generating overpressures. Second, heterogeneity of the crust composition could be a factor as the North Anatolian Fault system follows the intra-pontide ophiolitic suture. For instance, long term post-seismic creep onland at Ismet Paşa has been related to the presence of serpentinite in the fault zone. Moreover, high-density magnetic bodies have been identified along the MMF. Third, varying thermal regimes between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sea of Marmara may account for variations in the seismogenic depths. Seafloor heat flow in the Sea of Marmara is strongly affected by sediment blanketing and basin modeling considering this process suggests that the crustal heat flow is about 20 mW/m<sup>2</sup> higher in the eastern part than in western part of the Sea of Marmara. This difference may be explained by a more spread out crustal extension in the western Sea of Marmara.</p>

Landscape development in western and central Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

2001 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens-Ove Näslund
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Continental Margins ◽  
Landscape Development ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Stream ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Break Up

Large-scale bedrock morphology and relief of two key areas, the Jutulsessen Nunatak and the Jutulstraumen ice stream are used to discuss glascial history and landscape development in western and central Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Two main landform components were identified: well-defined summit plateau surfaces and a typical alpine glacial landscape. The flat, high-elevation plateau surfaces previously were part of one or several continuous regional planation surfaces. In western Dronning Maud Land, overlying cover rocks of late Palaeozoic age show that the planation surface(s) existed in the early Permian, prior to the break-up of Gondwana. A well-develoment escarpment, a mega landform typical for passive continental margins, bounds the palaeosurface remnants to the north for a distance of at least 700 km. The Cenozoic glacial landscape, incised in the palaeosurface and escarpment, is exemplified by Jutulsessen Nunatak, where a c. 1.2 km deep glacial valley system is developed. However, the prominent Penck-Jutul Trough represents some of the deepest dissection of the palaeosurface. This originally tectonic feature is today occupied by the Jutulstraumen ice stream. New topographic data show that the bed of the Penck-Jutul Trough is situated 1.9±1.1 km below sea level, and that the total landscape relief is at least 4.2 km. Today's relief is a result of several processes, including tectonic faulting, subaerial weathering, fluvial erosion, and glacial erosion. It is probable that erosion by ice streams has deepened the tectonic troughs of Dronning Maud Land since the onset of ice sheet glaciation in the Oligocene, and continues today. An attempt is made to identify major events in the long-term landscape development of Dronning Maud Land, since the break-up of the Gondwana continent.

scholarly journals Climate impacts on multidecadal <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> variability in the North Atlantic: 1948–2009

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 15223-15244
Author(s):  
M. L. Breeden ◽  
G. A. McKinley
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle using a regional model forced with realistic climate and pre-industrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948–2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Warming with the positive AMO increases subpolar gyre pCO2, but there is also a significant reduction of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) due primarily to reduced vertical mixing. The net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net impacts of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2.

Recent and active deformation in the North Evia domain, a diffuse plate boundary between Eurasia and Aegean plates in the Western termination of the North Anatolian Fault. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabien Caroir ◽  
Frank Chanier ◽  
Virginie Gaullier ◽  
Julien Bailleul ◽  
Agnès Maillard-Lenoir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Fault Zones ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Eurasian Plate ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
The North ◽  
South West ◽  
North Aegean

&lt;p&gt;The Anatolia-Aegean microplate is currently extruding toward the South and the South-West. This extrusion is classically attributed to the southward retreat of the Aegean subduction zone together with the northward displacement of the Arabian plate. The displacement of Aegean-Anatolian block relative to Eurasia is accommodated by dextral motion along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), with current slip rates of about 20 mm/yr. The NAF is propagating westward within the North Aegean domain where it gets separated into two main branches, one of them bordering the North Aegean Trough (NAT). This particular context is responsible for dextral and normal stress regimes between the Aegean plate and the Eurasian plate. South-West of the NAT, there is no identified major faults in the continuity of the NAF major branch and the plate boundary deformation is apparently distributed within a wide domain. This area is characterised by slip rates of 20 to 25 mm/yr relative to Eurasian plate but also by clockwise rotation of about 10&amp;#176; since ca 4 Myr. It constitutes a major extensional area involving three large rift basins: the Corinth Gulf, the Almiros Basin and the Sperchios-North Evia Gulf. The latter develops in the axis of the western termination of the NAT, and is therefore a key area to understand the present-day dynamics and the evolution of deformation within this diffuse plate boundary area.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Our study is mainly based on new structural data from field analysis and from very high resolution seismic reflexion profiles (Sparker 50-300 Joules) acquired during the WATER survey in July-August 2017 onboard the R/V &amp;#8220;T&amp;#233;thys II&amp;#8221;, but also on existing data on recent to active tectonics (i.e. earthquakes distribution, focal mechanisms, GPS data, etc.). The results from our new marine data emphasize the structural organisation and the evolution of the deformation within the North Evia region, SW of the NAT.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The combination of our structural analysis (offshore and onshore data) with available data on active/recent deformation led us to define several structural domains within the North Evia region, at the western termination of the North Anatolian Fault. The North Evia Gulf shows four main fault zones, among them the Central Basin Fault Zone (CBFZ) which is obliquely cross-cutting the rift basin and represents the continuity of the onshore Kamena Vourla - Arkitsa Fault System (KVAFS). Other major fault zones, such as the Aedipsos Politika Fault System (APFS) and the Melouna Fault Zone (MFZ) played an important role in the rift initiation but evolved recently with a left-lateral strike-slip motion. Moreover, our seismic dataset allowed to identify several faults in the Skopelos Basin including a large NW-dipping fault which affects the bathymetry and shows an important total vertical offset (&gt;300m). Finally, we propose an update of the deformation pattern in the North Evia region including two lineaments with dextral motion that extend southwestward the North Anatolian Fault system into the Oreoi Channel and the Skopelos Basin. Moreover, the North Evia Gulf domain is dominated by active N-S extension and sinistral reactivation of former large normal faults.&lt;/p&gt;

A Forecasting Method for Fertilizers Consumption in Brazil

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Ogasawara ◽  
Daniel de Oliveira ◽  
Fabio Paschoal Junior ◽  
Rafael Castaneda ◽  
Myrna Amorim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The World ◽  
Entire Country ◽  
Function Models ◽  
Nitrogen Phosphorus

Tracking information about fertilizers consumption in the world is very important since they are used to produce agriculture commodities. Brazil consumes a large amount of fertilizers due to its large-scale agriculture fields. Most of these fertilizers are currently imported. The analysis of consumption of major fertilizers, such as Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium (NPK), Sulfur, Phosphate Rock, Potash, and Nitrogen become critical for long-term government decisions. In this paper we present a method for fertilizers consumption forecasting based on both Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and logistic function models. Our method was used to forecast fertilizers consumption in Brazil for the next 20 years considering different economic growth for the entire country.

scholarly journals Melt equilibration depths as sensors of lithospheric thickness during Eurasia-Arabia collision and the uplift of the Anatolian Plateau

Geology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 943-947 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.R. Reid ◽  
J.R. Delph ◽  
M.A. Cosca ◽  
W.K. Schleiffarth ◽  
G. Gençalioğlu Kuşcu
Keyword(s):  
Late Miocene ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Middle Miocene ◽  
Volcanic Rocks ◽  
Suture Zone ◽  
Arabian Plate ◽  
Seismic Structure ◽  
Eurasian Plate ◽  
Lithospheric Thickness ◽  
Anatolian Plateau

Abstract A co-investigation of mantle melting conditions and seismic structure revealed an evolutionary record of mantle dynamics accompanying the transition from subduction to collision along the Africa-Eurasia margin and the >1 km uplift of the Anatolian Plateau. New 40Ar/39Ar dates of volcanic rocks from the Eastern Taurides (southeast Turkey) considerably expand the known spatial extent of Miocene-aged mafic volcanism following a magmatic lull over much of Anatolia that ended at ca. 20 Ma. Mantle equilibration depths for these chemically diverse basalts are interpreted to indicate that early to middle Miocene lithospheric thickness in the region varied from ∼50 km or less near the Bitlis suture zone to ∼80 km near the Inner Tauride suture zone. This southward-tapering lithospheric base could be a vestige of the former interface between the subducted (and now detached) portion of the Arabian plate and the overriding Eurasian plate, and/or a reflection of mantle weakening associated with greater mantle hydration trenchward prior to collision. Asthenospheric upwelling driven by slab tearing and foundering along this former interface, possibly accompanied by convective removal of the lithosphere, could have led to renewed volcanic activity after 20 Ma. Melt equilibration depths for late Miocene and Pliocene basalts together with seismic imaging of the present lithosphere indicate that relatively invariant lithospheric thicknesses of 60–70 km have persisted since the middle Miocene. Thus, no evidence is found for large-scale (tens of kilometers) Miocene delamination of the lower lithosphere from the overriding plate, which has been proposed elsewhere to account for late Miocene and younger uplift of Anatolia.

Contrasting tactical and strategic dynamics on a Clausewitz landscape

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-153
Author(s):  
Rodrick Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Human Organization ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Time

Statistical models based on the asymptotic limit theorems of control and information theories allow formal examination of the essential differences between short-time “tactical” confrontations and a long-term “strategic” conflict dominated by evolutionary process. The world of extended coevolutionary conflict is not the world of sequential “muddling through.” The existential strategic challenge is to take cognitive control of a long-term dynamic in which one may, in fact, be “losing” most short-term confrontations. Winning individual battles can be a relatively direct, if not simple or easy, matter of sufficient local resources, training, and resolve. Winning extended conflicts is not direct, and requires management of subtle coevolutionary phenomena subject to a dismaying punctuated equilibrium more familiar from evolutionary theory than military doctrine. Directed evolution has given us the agricultural base needed for large-scale human organization. Directed coevolution of the inevitable conflicts between the various segments of that organization may be needed for its long-term persistence.

scholarly journals 'The worst disaster suffered by the people of Scotland in recorded history': climate change, dearth and pathogens in the long 14th century

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 223-244
Author(s):  
Richard Oram
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Historical Discourse ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
The North ◽  
Political Upheaval ◽  
The People ◽  
Large Scale Change

Informing historical and archaeological discourse with environmental data culled from documentary and climate proxy records is transforming understanding of political, social economic and cultural change across the North Atlantic and European Atlantic regions generally. Limited record evidence and region-specific proxy data has hindered engagement by historians of medieval Scotland with the exploration of environmental factors as motors for long term and large scale change and adoption of the interdisciplinary methodologies involved in their use. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the potential for such data and methodologies in providing context for the well-rehearsed narratives of political upheaval and socio-economic realignment that have characterised much past Scottish historical discourse.

scholarly journals YOUTH EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 69-74
Author(s):  
Oxana Martirosyan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Quality Education ◽  
International Labour Organization ◽  
Decent Work ◽  
Youth Labor Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Mental Well Being

The economic crisis caused by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to serious long-term consequences for young people around the world, primarily because States have suspended funding for education and a large number of youth projects, and many children and adolescents have not been able to implement their plans for quality education and decent work. The international labour organization conducted a large-scale study on “Youth and COVID-19: impact on jobs, education, rights and mental well-being”, covering 112 countries and 120 thousand respondents. The article presents some results of this study, reflecting the situation in the youth labor market.

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