scholarly journals A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet-climate interactions on a multi-million year timescale: CLISEMv1.0

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Van Breedam ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Michel Crucifix
Keyword(s):  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Time Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Interactions ◽  
Gaussian Process Emulator

Abstract. On multi-million year timescales, fully coupled ice sheet – climate simulations are hampered by computational limitations, even at coarser resolutions and when considering asynchronous coupling schemes. In this study, a novel coupling method CLISEMv1.0 (CLimate-Ice Sheet EMulator version 1.0) is presented where a Gaussian process emulator is applied to the climate model HadSM3 coupled to the ice sheet model AISMPALEO. The temperature and precipitation fields from HadSM3 are emulated to feed the mass balance model from AISMPALEO. The sensitivity of the evolution of the ice sheet over time is tested to the number of predefined ice sheet geometries the emulator is calibrated on, to the formulation of the ice sheet parameter (being either ice sheet volume, either ice sheet area, or both) and to the coupling time. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the uncertainty introduced by the emulator. Additionally, different lapse rate adjustments are used between the relatively coarse climate model and the much finer ice sheet model topography. It is shown that the ice sheet evolution over a million-year timescale is strongly sensitive to the definition of the ice sheet parameter and to the number of predefined ice sheet geometries. With the new coupling procedure, we provide a computationally efficient framework for simulating ice sheet-climate interactions on a multi-million year timescale that allows for a large number of sensitivity tests.

A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet-climate interactions on a multi-million year timescale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Van Breedam ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Michel Crucifix
Keyword(s):  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate Interactions ◽  
Coupling Time ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Gaussian Process Emulator

<p>Fully coupled state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models are the best tool to investigate feedbacks between the different components of the climate system on a decadal to centennial timescale. On millennial to multi-millennial timescales, Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity are used to explore the feedbacks in the climate system between the ice sheets, the atmosphere and the ocean. Those fully coupled models, even at coarser resolution, are computationally very expensive and other techniques have been proposed to simulate ice sheet-climate interactions on a million-year timescale. The asynchronous coupling technique proposes to run a climate model for a few decades and subsequently an ice sheet model for a few millennia. Another, more efficient method is the use of a matrix look-up table where climate model runs are performed for end-members and intermediate climatic states are linearly interpolated.</p><p>In this study, a novel coupling approach is presented where a Gaussian Process emulator applied to the climate model HadSM3 is coupled to the ice sheet model AISMPALEO. We have tested the sensitivity of the formulation of the ice sheet parameter and of the coupling time to the evolution of the ice sheet over time. Additionally, we used different lapse rate adjustments between the relatively coarse climate model and the much finer ice sheet model topography. It is shown that the ice sheet evolution over a million year timescale is strongly sensitive to the choice of the coupling time and to the implementation of the lapse rate adjustment. With the new coupling procedure, we provide a more realistic and computationally efficient framework for ice sheet-climate interactions on a multi-million year timescale.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Robinson ◽  
R. Calov ◽  
A. Ganopolski
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Regional Energy ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Moisture Balance

Abstract. In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial) time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

scholarly journals A Two-Dimensional Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Sheet-Continent Model Designed for Paleoclimatic Simulations

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 55-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.B. Esch ◽  
K. Herterich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Vertical Plane ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Geothermal Heat ◽  
The North ◽  
Slow Evolution

We present a two-dimensional climate model to be used for basic dynamic studies on ice-age time scales (103 to 106 years). The model contains an ice sheet, where flow and temperature are calculated in a vertical plane, oriented in the north-south direction. The model ice sheet is forced by a zonally-averaged atmospheric energy-balance model, including a seasonal cycle and a simplified hydrological cycle, which specifies ice temperature and the mass balance at the ice-sheet surface. At the bottom of the ice sheet, the geothermal heat flux is prescribed. In addition, delayed bedrock sinking (or bedrock rising) is assumed.A stationary state is achieved after 200 000 model years. This long time scale is introduced by the slow evolution of the temperature field within the ice sheet. Using reasonable parameter values and presently observed precipitation patterns, modified by ice-sheet orography, the observed thickness to length ratio (4 km/3300 km) of the Laurentide ice sheet can be simulated within a realistic build-up time (40 000 years). Near the ice bottom, temperate regions developed. They may have had an important effect on ice-sheet build-up and ice-sheet decay.

scholarly journals Dependence of Eemian Greenland temperature reconstructions on the ice sheet topography

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 6683-6732
Author(s):  
N. Merz ◽  
A. Born ◽  
C. C. Raible ◽  
H. Fischer ◽  
T. F. Stocker
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Energy Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Lapse Rate

Abstract. The influence of a reduced Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) on Greenland's surface climate during the Eemian interglacial is studied using a comprehensive climate model. We find a distinct impact of changes in the GrIS topography on Greenland's surface air temperatures (SAT) even when correcting for changes in surface elevation which influences SAT through the lapse rate effect. The resulting lapse rate corrected SAT anomalies are thermodynamically driven by changes in the local surface energy balance rather than dynamically caused through anomalous advection of warm/cold air masses. The large-scale circulation is indeed very stable among all sensitivity experiments and the NH flow pattern does not depend on Greenland's topography in the Eemian. In contrast, Greenland's surface energy balance is clearly influenced by changes in the GrIS topography and this impact is seasonally diverse. In winter, the variable reacting strongest to changes in the topography is the sensible heat flux (SHFLX). The reason is its dependence on surface winds, which themselves are controlled to a large extent by the shape of the GrIS. Hence, regions where a receding GrIS causes higher surface wind velocities also experience anomalous warming through SHFLX. Vice-versa, regions that become flat and ice-free are characterized by low wind speeds, low SHFLX and anomalous cold winter temperatures. In summer, we find surface warming induced by a decrease in surface albedo in deglaciated areas and regions which experience surface melting. The Eemian temperature records derived from Greenland proxies, thus, likely include a temperature signal arising from changes in the GrIS topography. For the NEEM ice core site, our model suggests that up to 3.2 °C of the annual mean Eemian warming can be attributed to these topography-related processes and hence is not necessarily linked to large-scale climate variations.

scholarly journals Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1489-1500 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Korhonen ◽  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
H. Seppä ◽  
H. Järvinen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) have proven to be able to simulate the large-scale features of glacial–interglacial climate evolution. For many climatic applications the spatial resolution of the EMICs' output is, however, too coarse, and downscaling methods are needed. In this study we introduce a way to use generalized additive models (GAMs) for downscaling the large-scale output of an EMIC in very different climatological conditions ranging from glacial periods to current relatively warm climates. GAMs are regression models in which a combination of explanatory variables is related to the response through a sum of spline functions. We calibrated the GAMs using observations of the recent past climate and the results of short time-slice simulations of glacial climate performed by the relatively high-resolution general circulation model CCSM (Community Climate System Model) and the regional climate model RCA3 (Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model). As explanatory variables we used the output of a simulation by the CLIMBER-2 (CLIMate and BiosphERe model 2) EMIC of the last glacial cycle, coupled with the SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) ice sheet model, i.e. the large-scale temperature and precipitation data of CLIMBER-2, and the elevation, distance to ice sheet, slope direction and slope angle from SICOPOLIS. The fitted GAMs were able to explain more than 96% of the temperature response with a correlation of >0.98 and more than 59% of the precipitation response with a correlation of >0.72. The first comparison with two pollen-based reconstructions of temperature for Northern Europe showed that CLIMBER-2 data downscaled by GAMs corresponded better with the reconstructions than did the bilinearly interpolated CLIMBER-2 surface temperature.

scholarly journals Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Helsen ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
W. J. van de Berg ◽  
J. Oerlemans
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate

Abstract. It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (Hs). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of Hs and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

scholarly journals A benchmark dataset of in situ Antarctic surface melt rates and energy balance

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (256) ◽  
pp. 291-302
Author(s):  
Constantijn L. Jakobs ◽  
Carleen H. Reijmer ◽  
C. J. P. Paul Smeets ◽  
Luke D. Trusel ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Benchmark Dataset ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Stability

AbstractSurface melt on the coastal Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) determines the viability of its ice shelves and the stability of the grounded ice sheet, but very few in situ melt rate estimates exist to date. Here we present a benchmark dataset of in situ surface melt rates and energy balance from nine sites in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and coastal Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, seven of which are located on AIS ice shelves. Meteorological time series from eight automatic and one staffed weather station (Neumayer), ranging in length from 15 months to almost 24 years, serve as input for an energy-balance model to obtain consistent surface melt rates and energy-balance results. We find that surface melt rates exhibit large temporal, spatial and process variability. Intermittent summer melt in coastal DML is primarily driven by absorption of shortwave radiation, while non-summer melt events in the eastern AP occur during föhn events that force a large downward directed turbulent flux of sensible heat. We use the in situ surface melt rate dataset to evaluate melt rates from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 and validate a melt product from the QuikSCAT satellite.

scholarly journals Large sensitivity of a Greenland ice sheet model to atmospheric forcing fields

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1037-1083 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Quiquet ◽  
H. J. Punge ◽  
C. Ritz ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The prediction of future climate and ice sheet evolution requires coupling of ice sheet and climate models. Before proceeding to a coupled setup, we propose to analyze the impact of model simulated climate on an ice sheet. Here, we undertake this exercise for a set of regional and global climate models. Modelled near surface air temperature and precipitation are provided as upper boundary condition to the GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice model) hybrid ice sheet model (ISM) in its Greenland configuration. After 20 kyr of simulation, the resulting ice sheets highlight the differences between the climate models. While modelled ice sheet sizes are generally comparable to the observed ones, there are considerable deviations among the ice sheets on regional scales. These can be explained by difficulties in modelling local temperature and precipitation near the coast. This is especially true in the case of global models. But the deviations of each climate model are also due to the differences in the atmospheric general circulation. In the context of coupling ice sheet and climate models, we conclude that appropriate downscaling methods will be needed and systematic corrections of the climatic variables at the interface may be required in some cases to obtain realistic results for the Greenland ice sheet (GIS).

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