scholarly journals Response of microbial decomposition to spin-up explains CMIP5 soil carbon range until 2100

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 2683-2692 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-F. Exbrayat ◽  
A. J. Pitman ◽  
G. Abramowitz
Keyword(s):  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Microbial Decomposition ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Business As Usual

Abstract. Soil carbon storage simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models varies 6-fold for the present day. Here, we confirm earlier work showing that this range already exists at the beginning of the CMIP5 historical simulations. We additionally show that this range is largely determined by the response of microbial decomposition during each model's spin-up procedure from initialization to equilibration. The 6-fold range in soil carbon, once established prior to the beginning of the historical period (and prior to the beginning of a CMIP5 simulation), is then maintained through the present and to 2100 almost unchanged even under a strong business-as-usual emissions scenario. We therefore highlight that a commonly ignored part of CMIP5 analyses – the land surface state achieved through the spin-up procedure – can be important for determining future carbon storage and land surface fluxes. We identify the need to better constrain the outcome of the spin-up procedure as an important step in reducing uncertainty in both projected soil carbon and land surface fluxes in CMIP5 transient simulations.

scholarly journals Response of microbial decomposition to spin-up explains CMIP5 soil carbon range until 2100

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3481-3504 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-F. Exbrayat ◽  
A. J. Pitman ◽  
G. Abramowitz
Keyword(s):  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Soil Carbon Storage ◽  
Microbial Decomposition ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Carbon Stores

Abstract. Soil carbon storage simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models varies 6-fold for the present day. We show that this range already exists at the beginning of the historical simulations and demonstrate that it is mostly an artifact of the representation of microbial decomposition and its response during the spin-up procedure used by the models. The 6-fold range in soil carbon, once established, is maintained through the present and to 2100 almost unchanged even under a strong business-as-usual emissions scenario. By highlighting the role of the response of decomposition to spin-up in explaining why current CMIP5 soil carbon stores vary widely, we identify the need to better constrain the outcome of this procedure as a means to reduce uncertainty in transient simulations.

scholarly journals Carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations with JSBACH (version 3.10)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel S. Goll ◽  
Alexander J. Winkler ◽  
Thomas Raddatz ◽  
Ning Dong ◽  
Ian Colin Prentice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Nitrogen Loss ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Carbon Decomposition ◽  
Model Average ◽  
Nitrogen Inputs

Abstract. Recent advances in the representation of soil carbon decomposition (Goll et al., 2015) and carbon-nitrogen interactions (Parida, 2011; Goll et al., 2012) implemented previously into separate versions of the land surface scheme JSBACH are here combined in a single version which is set to be used in the upcoming 6th phase of coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) (Eyring et al., 2016). Here we demonstrate that the new version of JSBACH is able to reproduce the spatial variability in the reactive nitrogen loss pathways as derived from a compilation of δ15N data (r=.63, RMSE=.26, Taylor score=.81). The inclusion of carbon-nitrogen interactions leads to a moderate reduction (−10 %) of the carbon-concentration feedback (βL) and has a negligible effect on the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to warming (γL) compared to the same version of the model without carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations (1 % increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide per yr). In line with evidence from elevated carbon dioxide manipulation experiments (Shi et al., 2015; Liang et al., 2016), pronounced nitrogen scarcity is alleviated by (1) the accumulation of nitrogen due to enhanced nitrogen inputs by biological nitrogen fixation and reduced losses by leaching and volatilization as well as the (2) enhanced turnover of organic nitrogen. The strengths of the land carbon feedbacks of the recent version of JSBACH, with βL=0.61 Pg ppm−1 and γL=−27.5 Pg °C−1, are 34 % and 53 % less than the averages of CMIP5 models (Arora et al., 2013), although the CMIP5 version of JSBACH simulated βL and γL which are 59 % and 42 % higher than multi-model average. These changes are primarily due to the new decomposition model, stressing the importance of getting the basics right (here: the decomposition of soil carbon) before increasing the complexity of the model (here: carbon-nitrogen interactions).

scholarly journals Disentangling residence time and temperature sensitivity of microbial decomposition in a global soil carbon model

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 4995-5021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-F. Exbrayat ◽  
A. J. Pitman ◽  
G. Abramowitz
Keyword(s):  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Residence Time ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Microbial Decomposition ◽  
Total Soil ◽  
Industrial Soil ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Recent studies have identified the first-order parameterization of microbial decomposition as a major source of uncertainty in simulations and projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. Here, we use a reduced complexity model representative of the current state-of-the-art parameterization of soil organic carbon decomposition. We undertake a systematic sensitivity analysis to disentangle the effect of the time-invariant baseline residence time (k) and the sensitvity of microbial decomposition to temperature (Q10) on soil carbon dynamics at regional and global scales. Our simulations produce a range in total soil carbon at equilibrium of ~ 592 to 2745 Pg C which is similar to the ~ 561 to 2938 Pg C range in pre-industrial soil carbon in models used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This range depends primarily on the value of k, although the impact of Q10 is not trivial at regional scales. As climate changes through the historical period, and into the future, k is primarily responsible for the magnitude of the response in soil carbon, whereas Q10 determines whether the soil remains a sink, or becomes a source in the future mostly by its effect on mid-latitudes carbon balance. If we restrict our simulations to those simulating total soil carbon stocks consistent with observations of current stocks, the projected range in total soil carbon change is reduced by 42% for the historical simulations and 45% for the future projections. However, while this observation-based selection dismisses outliers it does not increase confidence in the future sign of the soil carbon feedback. We conclude that despite this result, future estimates of soil carbon, and how soil carbon responds to climate change should be constrained by available observational data sets.

scholarly journals Examining soil carbon uncertainty in a global model: response of microbial decomposition to temperature, moisture and nutrient limitation

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 10229-10269
Author(s):  
J.-F. Exbrayat ◽  
A. J. Pitman ◽  
Q. Zhang ◽  
G. Abramowitz ◽  
Y.-P. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Nutrient Limitation ◽  
Historical Change ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Microbial Decomposition ◽  
Soil C ◽  
System Models ◽  
C And N ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Reliable projections of future climate require land–atmosphere carbon (C) fluxes to be represented realistically in Earth System Models. There are several sources of uncertainty in how carbon is parameterized in these models. First, while interactions between the C, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles have been implemented in some models, these lead to diverse changes in land–atmosphere fluxes. Second, while the parameterization of soil organic matter decomposition is similar between models, formulations of the control of the soil physical state on microbial activity vary widely. We address these sources uncertainty by implementing three soil moisture (SMRF) and three soil temperature (STRF) respiration functions in an Earth System Model that can be run with three degrees of biogeochemical nutrient limitation (C-only, C and N, and C and N and P). All 27 possible combinations of a SMRF with a STRF and a biogeochemical mode are equilibrated before transient historical (1850–2005) simulations are performed. As expected, implementing N and P limitation reduces the land carbon sink, transforming some regions from net sinks to net sources over the historical period (1850–2005). Differences in the soil C balance implied by the various SMRFs and STRFs also change the sign of some regional sinks. Further, although the absolute uncertainty in global carbon uptake is reduced, the uncertainty due to the SMRFs and STRFs grows relative to the inter-annual variability in net uptake when N and P limitations are added. We also demonstrate that the equilibrated soil C also depend on the shape of the SMRF and STRF. Equilibration using different STRFs and SMRFs and nutrient limitation generates a six-fold range of global soil C that largely mirrors the range in available (17) CMIP5 models. Simulating the historical change in soil carbon therefore critically depends on the choice of STRF, SMRF and nutrient limitation, as it controls the equilibrated state to which transient conditions are applied. This direct effect of the representation of microbial decomposition in Earth System Models adds to recent concerns on the adequacy of these simple representations of very complex soil carbon processes.

scholarly journals Climate Extremes over the Arabian Peninsula Using RegCM4 for Present Conditions Forced by Several CMIP5 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almazroui
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

This paper investigates the temperature and precipitation extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using data from the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and ERA–Interim reanalysis data. Indices of extremes are calculated using daily temperature and precipitation data at 27 meteorological stations located across Saudi Arabia in line with the suggested procedure from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the present climate (1986–2005) using 1981–2000 as the reference period. The results show that RegCM4 accurately captures the main features of temperature extremes found in surface observations. The results also show that RegCM4 with the CLM land–surface scheme performs better in the simulation of precipitation and minimum temperature, while the BATS scheme is better than CLM in simulating maximum temperature. Among the three CMIP5 models, the two best performing models are found to accurately reproduce the observations in calculating the extreme indices, while the other is not so successful. The reason for the good performance by these two models is that they successfully capture the circulation patterns and the humidity fields, which in turn influence the temperature and precipitation patterns that determine the extremes over the study region.

scholarly journals Intermodel Variability and Mechanism Attribution of Central and Southeastern U.S. Anomalous Cooling in the Twentieth Century as Simulated by CMIP5 Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6215-6237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zaitao Pan ◽  
Xiaodong Liu ◽  
Sanjiv Kumar ◽  
Zhiqiu Gao ◽  
James Kinter
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Some parts of the United States, especially the southeastern and central portion, cooled by up to 2°C during the twentieth century, while the global mean temperature rose by 0.6°C (0.76°C from 1901 to 2006). Studies have suggested that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) may be responsible for this cooling, termed the “warming hole” (WH), while other works reported that regional-scale processes such as the low-level jet and evapotranspiration contribute to the abnormity. In phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), only a few of the 53 simulations could reproduce the cooling. This study analyzes newly available simulations in experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 28 models, totaling 175 ensemble members. It was found that 1) only 19 out of 100 all-forcing historical ensemble members simulated negative temperature trend (cooling) over the southeast United States, with 99 members underpredicting the cooling rate in the region; 2) the missing of cooling in the models is likely due to the poor performance in simulating the spatial pattern of the cooling rather than the temporal variation, as indicated by a larger temporal correlation coefficient than spatial one between the observation and simulations; 3) the simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only produced strong warming in the central United States that may have compensated the cooling; and 4) the all-forcing historical experiment compared with the natural-forcing-only experiment showed a well-defined WH in the central United States, suggesting that land surface processes, among others, could have contributed to the cooling in the twentieth century.

scholarly journals Carbon–nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations with JSBACH (version 3.10)

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2009-2030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel S. Goll ◽  
Alexander J. Winkler ◽  
Thomas Raddatz ◽  
Ning Dong ◽  
Ian Colin Prentice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Nitrogen Loss ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Carbon Decomposition ◽  
Model Average ◽  
Nitrogen Inputs ◽  
Surface Scheme

Abstract. Recent advances in the representation of soil carbon decomposition and carbon–nitrogen interactions implemented previously into separate versions of the land surface scheme JSBACH are here combined in a single version, which is set to be used in the upcoming 6th phase of coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6).Here we demonstrate that the new version of JSBACH is able to reproduce the spatial variability in the reactive nitrogen-loss pathways as derived from a compilation of δ15N data (R = 0. 76, root mean square error (RMSE)  = 0. 2, Taylor score  = 0. 83). The inclusion of carbon–nitrogen interactions leads to a moderate reduction (−10 %) of the carbon-concentration feedback (βL) and has a negligible effect on the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to warming (γL) compared to the same version of the model without carbon–nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations (1 % increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide per year). In line with evidence from elevated carbon dioxide manipulation experiments, pronounced nitrogen scarcity is alleviated by (1) the accumulation of nitrogen due to enhanced nitrogen inputs by biological nitrogen fixation and reduced losses by leaching and volatilization. Warming stimulated turnover of organic nitrogen further counteracts scarcity.The strengths of the land carbon feedbacks of the recent version of JSBACH, with βL = 0. 61 Pg ppm−1 and γL = −27. 5 Pg °C−1, are 34 and 53 % less than the averages of CMIP5 models, although the CMIP5 version of JSBACH simulated βL and γL, which are 59 and 42 % higher than multi-model average. These changes are primarily due to the new decomposition model, indicating the importance of soil organic matter decomposition for land carbon feedbacks.

scholarly journals Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after land use change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Lena Boysen ◽  
David Wårlind ◽  
Daniele Peano ◽  
Anne Sofie Lansø ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Nitrogen Levels ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Crop Harvest

<p>Land surface models are used to provide global estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes after past and future land use change (LUC). To evaluate how well the models capture decadal scale changes in SOC after LUC, we provide the first consistent comparison of simulated time series of LUC by six land models all of which participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with soil carbon chronosequences (SCC). For this comparison we use SOC measurements of adjacent plots at four high-quality data sites in temperate and tropical regions. We find that initial SOC stocks differ among models due to different approaches to represent SOC. Models generally meet the direction of SOC change after reforestation of cropland but the amplitude and rate of changes vary strongly among them. Further, models simulate SOC losses after deforestation for crop or grassland too slow due to the lack of crop harvest impacts in the models or an overestimation of the SOC recovery on grassland. The representation of management, especially nitrogen levels is important to capture drops in SOC after land abandonment for forest regrowth. Crop harvest and fire management are important to match SOC dynamics but more difficult to quantify as SCC hardly report on these events. Based on our findings, we identify strengths and propose potential improvements of the applied models in simulating SOC changes after LUC.</p>

Evaluation of snow albedo feedback simulated by CMIP6 coupled climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
jiangling hu ◽  
duoying ji
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Simulation Research ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Snow Albedo ◽  
Autumn And Winter

<p>As the land surface warms, a subsequent reduction in snow and ice cover reveals a less reflective surface that absorbs more solar radiation, which further enhances the initial warming. This positive feedback climate mechanism is the snow albedo feedback (SAF), which will exacerbate climate warming and is the second largest contributor to Arctic amplification. Snow albedo feedback will increase the sensitivity of climate change in the northern hemisphere, which affects the accuracy of climate models in simulation research of climate change, and further affects the credibility of future climate prediction results.</p><p>Using the latest generation of climate models from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6), we analyze seasonal cycle snow albedo feedback in Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We find that the strongest SAF strength is in spring (mean: -1.34 %K<sup>-1</sup>), second strongest is autumn (mean: -1.01 %K<sup>-1</sup>), the weakest is in summer (mean: -0.18 %K<sup>-1</sup>). Except summer, the SAF strength is approximately 0.15% K<sup>-1</sup> larger than CMIP5 models in the other three seasons. The spread of spring SAF strength (range: -1.09 to -1.37% K<sup>-1</sup>) is larger than CMIP5 models. Oppositely, the spread of summer SAF strength (range: 0.20 to -0.56% K<sup>-1</sup>) is smaller than CMIP5 models. When compared with CMIP5 models, the spread of autumn and winter SAF strength have not changed much.</p>

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Soil Moisture and Atmospheric Stability on Cloud Development and Distribution Using a Coupled Large-Eddy Simulation and Land Surface Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 787-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsin-Yuan Huang ◽  
Steven A. Margulis
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Stability ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Cloud Development

Abstract The influence of soil moisture and atmospheric thermal stability on surface fluxes, boundary layer characteristics, and cloud development are investigated using a coupled large-eddy simulation (LES)–land surface model (LSM) framework. The study day from the Cabauw site in the central part of the Netherlands has been studied to examine the soil moisture–cloud feedback using a parameterized single-column model (SCM) in previous work. Good agreement is seen in the comparison between coupled model results and observations collected at the Cabauw eddy-covariance tower. Simulation results confirm the hypothesis that both surface fluxes and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) states are strongly affected by soil moisture and atmospheric stability, which was proposed by a previous study using an SCM with simple parameterization. While the ABL-top cloud development is a nonmonotonic function of surface water content under different thermal stability conditions, coupled model simulations find that weak thermal stability has significant impacts on both thermal and moisture fluxes and variances near the entrainment zone, especially for the dry surface cases. Additionally, the impacts of ABL-top stability on thermal and moisture entrainment processes are in a different magnitude. The explicitly resolved cloud cover fraction increases with increasing soil moisture only occurs in cases with strong atmospheric stability, and an opposite result is seen when weak atmospheric stability exists. The elevation of cloud base highly depends on the strength of sensible heat flux. However, results of cloud thickness show that a dry surface with weak thermal stability is able to form a large amount of cumulus cloud, even if the soil provides less water vapor.

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