Assessing Detectability of Global Flood Occurrences using Daily and Monthly GRACE/GRACE-FO

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashraf Rateb ◽  
Alexander Sun ◽  
Bridget Scanlon ◽  
Himanshu Save
Keyword(s):  
Water Storage ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Coincidence Rate ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Grace Data

<p> </p> <p>Floods pose a threat to the lives of millions of people globally each year, with economic losses exceeding those of any other natural hazard. Improving flood forecasting with longer lead times can support enhanced risk management strategies and reduce associated socioeconomic losses. The objective of this study was to assess the detectability of floods using newly developed GRACE daily and regular monthly total water storage data. </p> <p>We compared total water storage (TWS) maxima from GRACE and GRACE-FO with flood occurrences from 2002 to 2020. GRACE daily TWS maxima were based on three daily GRACE solutions (UTCSR-RSWM, GFZ-RBF, and ITSG-2018) derived using statistical learning and geophysical models for the GRACE period (2002-2017). Monthly GRACE and GRACE-FO data were based on mascons solutions from UT-CSR and NASA-JPL for 2002-2020. A flood susceptibility index was developed based on the climate signal portion in the TWSA and compared with other flood indices (e.g., standardized precipitation index and streamflow). We evaluated the spatiotemporal coincidence rate of change of the 90th percentile of the daily and monthly precipitation based on the GPM-Imerg and GPCP rainfall data and the corresponding 90th percentile of the daily and monthly TWSA. The coincidence rate between GRACE TWSA maxima and precipitation were also compared relative to actual flood data (~3000 events) from the Dartmouth flood Observatory (DFO) catalog. </p> <p>Preliminary results using precipitation data from GPCP reveal that monthly GRACE/GRACE-FO data have a high predication rate for the monthly maxima precipitation > 90th percentile with a lead time of ~ two months across the tropical rain belt. Assessment against the real flood events shows that the three daily GRACE data perform well for flood events resulting from heavy and monsoonal rain and slightly differ for the events triggered by snowmelt and storm surges. The duration of flood events from GRACE data is generally shorter than the periods reported by DFO. An empirical relationship was derived between floods' duration based on the cause and the expected precursor coincidence rate from daily GRACE data. Further analysis is necessary to evaluate the GRACE precursor rate using different lead times and tolerance windows, quantify the change in rate relative to climate, topography, and soil types, and interpret the different performance GRACE products. This preliminary analysis suggests the high potential for GRACE/GRACE-FO data to extend flood forecast lead times and potentially improve the mitigation strategies</p>

Long‐Term (1979‐Present) Total Water Storage Anomalies Over the Global Land Derived by Reconstructing GRACE Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fupeng Li ◽  
Jürgen Kusche ◽  
Nengfang Chao ◽  
Zhengtao Wang ◽  
Anno Löcher
Keyword(s):  
Water Storage ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Global Land

scholarly journals Calibration and evaluation of a semi-distributed watershed model of Sub-Saharan Africa using GRACE data

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 3083-3099 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Xie ◽  
L. Longuevergne ◽  
C. Ringler ◽  
B. R. Scanlon
Keyword(s):  
Regional Scale ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract. Irrigation development is rapidly expanding in mostly rainfed Sub-Saharan Africa. This expansion underscores the need for a more comprehensive understanding of water resources beyond surface water. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites provide valuable information on spatio-temporal variability in water storage. The objective of this study was to calibrate and evaluate a semi-distributed regional-scale hydrologic model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) code for basins in Sub-Saharan Africa using seven-year (July 2002–April 2009) 10-day GRACE data and multi-site river discharge data. The analysis was conducted in a multi-criteria framework. In spite of the uncertainty arising from the tradeoff in optimising model parameters with respect to two non-commensurable criteria defined for two fluxes, SWAT was found to perform well in simulating total water storage variability in most areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, which have semi-arid and sub-humid climates, and that among various water storages represented in SWAT, water storage variations in soil, vadose zone and groundwater are dominant. The study also showed that the simulated total water storage variations tend to have less agreement with GRACE data in arid and equatorial humid regions, and model-based partitioning of total water storage variations into different water storage compartments may be highly uncertain. Thus, future work will be needed for model enhancement in these areas with inferior model fit and for uncertainty reduction in component-wise estimation of water storage variations.

scholarly journals Analysis of Groundwater and Total Water Storage Changes in Poland Using GRACE Observations, In-situ Data, and Various Assimilation and Climate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 2949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Śliwińska ◽  
Monika Birylo ◽  
Zofia Rzepecka ◽  
Jolanta Nastula
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Total Water ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Land Data Assimilation System

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations have provided global observations of total water storage (TWS) changes at monthly intervals for over 15 years, which can be useful for estimating changes in GWS after extracting other water storage components. In this study, we analyzed the TWS and groundwater storage (GWS) variations of the main Polish basins, the Vistula and the Odra, using GRACE observations, in-situ data, GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) hydrological models, and CMIP5 (the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate data. The research was conducted for the period between September 2006 and October 2015. The TWS data were taken directly from GRACE measurements and also computed from four GLDAS (VIC, CLM, MOSAIC, and NOAH) and six CMIP5 (FGOALS-g2, GFDL-ESM2G, GISS-E2-H, inmcm4, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-LR) models. The GWS data were obtained by subtracting the model TWS from the GRACE TWS. The resulting GWS values were compared with in-situ well measurements calibrated using porosity coefficients. For each time series, the trends, spectra, amplitudes, and seasonal components were computed and analyzed. The results suggest that in Poland there has been generally no major TWS or GWS depletion. Our results indicate that when comparing TWS values, better compliance with GRACE data was obtained for GLDAS than for CMIP5 models. However, the GWS analysis showed better consistency of climate models with the well results. The results can contribute toward selection of an appropriate model that, in combination with global GRACE observations, would provide information on groundwater changes in regions with limited or inaccurate ground measurements.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Extremes and Human Water Use on GRACE Total Water Storage Trends in Major U.S. Aquifers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bridget Scanlon ◽  
Ashraf Rateb ◽  
Alexander Sun ◽  
Himanshu Save
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
The U.S

<p>There is considerable concern about water depletion caused by climate extremes (e.g., drought) and human water use in the U.S. and globally. Major U.S. aquifers provide an ideal laboratory to assess water storage changes from GRACE satellites because the aquifers are intensively monitored and modeled. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of climate extremes and human water use on GRACE Total Water Storage Anomalies in 14 major U.S. aquifers and to evaluate the reliability of the GRACE data by comparing with groundwater level monitoring (~-23,000 wells) and regional and global models. We quantified total water and groundwater storage anomalies over 2002 – 2017 from GRACE satellites and compared GRACE data with groundwater level monitoring and regional and global modeling results.  </p> <p>The results show that water storage changes were controlled primarily by climate extremes and amplified or dampened by human water use, primarily irrigation. The results were somewhat surprising, with stable or rising long-term trends in the majority of aquifers with large scale depletion limited to agricultural areas in the semi-arid southwest and southcentral U.S. GRACE total water storage in the California Central Valley and Central/Southern High Plains aquifers was depleted by drought and amplified by groundwater irrigation, totaling ~70 km<sup>3</sup> (2002–2017), about 2× the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest surface reservoir in the U.S. In the Pacific Northwest and Northern High Plains aquifers, lower drought intensities were partially dampened by conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for irrigation and managed aquifer recharge, increasing water storage by up to 22 km<sup>3</sup> in the Northern High Plains over the 15 yr period. GRACE-derived total water storage changes in the remaining aquifers were stable or slightly rising throughout the rest of the U.S.</p> <p>GRACE data compared favorably with composite groundwater level hydrographs for most aquifers except for those with very low signals, indicating that GRACE tracks groundwater storage dynamics. Comparison with regional models was restricted to the limited overlap periods but showed good correspondence for modeled aquifers with the exception of the Mississippi Embayment, where the modeled trend is 4x the GRACE trend. The discrepancy is attributed to uncertainties in model storage parameters and groundwater/surface water interactions. Global hydrologic models (WGHM-2d and PCR-GLOBWB-5.0 overestimated trends in groundwater storage in heavily exploited aquifers in the southwestern and southcentral U.S. Land surface models (CLSM-F2.5 and NOAH-MP) seem to track GRACE TWSAs better than global hydrologic models but underestimated TWS trends in aquifers dominated by irrigation.</p> <p>Intercomparing GRACE, traditional hydrologic monitoring, and modeling data underscore the importance of considering all data sources to constrain water storage changes.  GRACE satellite data have critical implications for many nationally important aquifers, highlighting the importance of conjunctively using surface-water and groundwater and managed aquifer recharge to enhance sustainable development.</p>

Global flood monitoring with GRACE/GRACE-FO

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milena Latinovic ◽  
Andreas Güntner ◽  
Frank Flechtner ◽  
Michael Murböck ◽  
Andreas Kwas
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Large River ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Water Redistribution ◽  
German Aerospace

<p>The German Aerospace Center and NASA's joint mission, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) operational from 2002 until October 2017, provided measurements of Earth's gravity field anomalies. Its follow-on mission GRACE-FO, implemented by NASA and GFZ, was launched in May 2018 and continued to give us large-scale measurements of the Earth's gravity variations. These variations in gravity are used to determine anomalies of total water storage (TWSA) which can provide us with insights into global water redistribution on a monthly up to a daily basis.</p><p>Most common natural disasters that still require efficient early warning systems are floods. Floods are causing significant economic and humanitarian losses on a global scale and are triggered by the interaction of different hydro-meteorological processes (e.g. precipitation, sub-surface water storage, snow cover).    </p><p>We aim to explore GRACE and GRACE-FO products' possibilities to detect the water storage dynamics associated with floods in large river catchments. We include analysis of the basins' wetness states before the flood events, which eventually can give us early indicators of flood development. During the GRACE data period, we investigate around 2500 historical floods from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO). We acquire GRACE data with daily resolution from the latest releases of ITSG and GFZ for the spatial extent of DFO floods and reduce TWSA values by long-term trends and by average seasonal variability. Furthermore, we assess the available river discharge time series, during the GRACE period, obtained from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) for the flood event separation. We compare GRACE-based water storage anomalies to flood events' characteristics, like peak, volume, and duration. Results show the potential of GRACE-based TWSA to detect large-scale flood events.</p>

scholarly journals Downscaling GRACE total water storage change using partial least squares regression

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma ◽  
Jinwei Zhang ◽  
Nico Sneeuw
Keyword(s):  
Water Mass ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Satellite Mission ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Gravity Recovery ◽  
Storage Change

AbstractThe Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission recorded temporal variations in the Earth’s gravity field, which are then converted to Total Water Storage Change (TWSC) fields representing an anomaly in the water mass stored in all three physical states, on and below the surface of the Earth. GRACE provided a first global observational record of water mass redistribution at spatial scales greater than 63000 km2. This limits their usability in regional hydrological applications. In this study, we implement a statistical downscaling approach that assimilates 0.5° × 0.5° water storage fields from the WaterGAP hydrology model (WGHM), precipitation fields from 3 models, evapotranspiration and runoff from 2 models, with GRACE data to obtain TWSC at a 0.5° × 0.5° grid. The downscaled product exploits dominant common statistical modes between all the hydrological datasets to improve the spatial resolution of GRACE. We also provide open access to scripts that researchers can use to produce downscaled TWSC fields with input observations and models of their own choice.

scholarly journals Water Storage Variations in Tibet from GRACE, ICESat, and Hydrological Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Zou ◽  
Robert Tenzer ◽  
Shuanggen Jin
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Satellite Mission ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
The Impact

The monitoring of water storage variations is essential not only for the management of water resources, but also for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle, particularly in Tibet. In this study, we estimated and analyzed changes of the total water budget on the Tibetan Plateau from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission over 15 years prior to 2017. To suppress overall leakage effect of GRACE monthly solutions in Tibet, we applied a forward modeling technique to reconstruct hydrological signals from GRACE data. The results reveal a considerable decrease in the total water budget at an average annual rate of −6.22 ± 1.74 Gt during the period from August 2002 to December 2016. In addition to the secular trend, seasonal variations controlled mainly by annual changes in precipitation were detected, with maxima in September and minima in December. A rising temperature on the plateau is likely a principal factor causing a continuous decline of the total water budget attributed to increase melting of mountain glaciers, permafrost, and snow cover. We also demonstrate that a substantial decrease in the total water budget due to melting of mountain glaciers was partially moderated by the increasing water storage of lakes. This is evident from results of ICESat data for selected major lakes and glaciers. The ICESat results confirm a substantial retreat of mountain glaciers and an increasing trend of major lakes. An increasing volume of lakes is mainly due to an inflow of the meltwater from glaciers and precipitation. Our estimates of the total water budget on the Tibetan Plateau are affected by a hydrological signal from neighboring regions. Probably the most significant are aliasing signals due to ground water depletion in Northwest India and decreasing precipitation in the Eastern Himalayas. Nevertheless, an integral downtrend in the total water budget on the Tibetan Plateau caused by melting of glaciers prevails over the investigated period.

scholarly journals State-of-the-art potential of the GRACE satellite mission for solving modern hydrological problems

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia L. Frolova ◽  
◽  
Vadim Yu. Grigorev ◽  
Inna N. Krylenko ◽  
Elena A. Zakharova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Satellite Mission ◽  
The North ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
North Part ◽  
Grace Mission

The paper presents main results of GRACE mission using in such fields of study as estimations of components of basins water storage and water balance, hydrological modeling. It is shown that error of GRACE data is of the order 11 mm for watersheds with area about 100 000 km2 and decreasing with increasing of basin area. This accuracy made it possible to identify long-term and seasonal water storage. It is shown, that decreasing of total water storage in the Don basin for 2002–2019 is approximately equally caused by both soil moisture and groundwater changes. At the same time, minimum of groundwater was already reached in 2010, and soil moisture in 2015. Since 2016, Don basin groundwater changes a little during the winter period that is due, probably, with increase number of thaws and thinning of the freezing layer during this period. By the data of meteorological stations for the precipitation of cold period for the European Russia the value of their systematic error was estimated, it is about 20-25%. The comparison of the values of total water storage for the river basins of the north part of European part of Russia, according GRACE data and ECOMAG runoff modeling results has shown their good coincidence (NSE =0.78 0.89). In comparison with GRACE, ECOMAG shows a smaller increase in water storage during the winter and a faster decline during spring flood period. Currently, progress in the use of GRACE in hydrology is limited by low spatial-temporal resolution of data, which, within the framework of the GRACE mission itself, will not be improved in the coming years. At the same time, the principle of GRACE operation can be applied in future to various satellite constellations.

Reconstruction of GRACE Data on Changes in Total Water Storage Over the Global Land Surface and 60 Basins

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhangli Sun ◽  
Di Long ◽  
Wenting Yang ◽  
Xueying Li ◽  
Yun Pan
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Global Land
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