scholarly journals Sustainable use of water resources in a Wadi system facing climate change impacts and growing groundwater demand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariman Mahmoodi ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Paul D. Wagner ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Hydrologic Regime ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Abstract. Understanding current and possible future alterations of water resources under climate change and increased water withdrawal allows for better water and environmental management decisions in arid regions. This study aims at analyzing the impact of groundwater withdrawals and climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alterations in a Wadi system in central Iran. A hydrologic model is used to assess streamflow and groundwater recharge of the Halilrood Basin on a daily time step under different scenarios over a model setup period (1979–2009) and for two future scenario periods (near future: 2030–2059 and far future: 2070–2099). The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) with a set of 32 parameters are used in conjunction with the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) to evaluate hydrologic regime change in the river. The results show that groundwater recharge is expected to decrease, and is not able to fulfil the increasing water demand in the far future scenario. The Halilrood River will undergo low and moderate flow alteration under both stressors during the near future as RVA alteration is classified as high for only three indicators, while in the far future, 11 indicators lie in high range. Absolute changes in hydrologic indicators are stronger when both climate change and withdrawals are considered in the far future simulations, since 27 indicators show significant changes and RVA show high and moderate level of changes for 18 indicators. Considering the evaluated RVA changes, future impacts on the freshwater ecosystems in the Halilrood Basin will be severe. The developed approach can be transferred to other Wadi regions for a spatially-distributed assessment of water resources sustainability.

scholarly journals Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 5065-5081
Author(s):  
Nariman Mahmoodi ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Paul D. Wagner ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Hydrologic Regime ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Groundwater Demand ◽  
Far Future

Abstract. Understanding current and possible future alterations of water resources under climate change and increased water demand allows for better water and environmental management decisions in arid regions. This study aims at analyzing the impact of groundwater demand and climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alterations in a wadi system in central Iran. A hydrologic model is used to assess streamflow and groundwater recharge of the Halilrood Basin on a daily time step under five different scenarios over the baseline period (1979–2009) and for two future scenario periods (near future: 2030–2059 and far future: 2070–2099). The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) with a set of 32 parameters are used in conjunction with the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) to evaluate hydrologic regime change in the river. The results show that groundwater recharge is expected to decrease and is not able to fulfill the increasing water demand in the far future scenario. The Halilrood River will undergo low and moderate streamflow alteration under both stressors during the near future as RVA alteration is classified as “high” for only three indicators, whereas stronger alteration is expected in the far future, with 11 indicators in the high range. Absolute changes in hydrologic indicators are stronger when both climate change and groundwater demand are considered in the far future simulations, since 27 indicators show significant changes, and the RVA shows high and moderate levels of changes for 18 indicators. Considering the evaluated RVA changes, future impacts on the freshwater ecosystems in the Halilrood Basin will be severe. The developed approach can be transferred to other wadi regions for a spatially distributed assessment of water resources sustainability.

scholarly journals Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Impact

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.

Precipitation trends and ruptures effect on catchment hydrology and water resources availability for agricultural lands under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youness Hrour ◽  
Zahra Thomas ◽  
Ophélie Fovet ◽  
Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin ◽  
Pascal Pichelin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Catchment Hydrology ◽  
Agricultural Adaptation ◽  
Stream Discharge ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Trends

<p>Water resources depletion under climate change is a major concern over the world. Mediterranean countries are deeply affected by changes in precipitation intensity, duration and frequency. Such changes lead to decrease in the averaged stream discharge and groundwater recharge consequently decreasing water resources availability. Our research focused on a case study performed in the Loukkos catchment, draining an area of 3730 km², located in the north of Morocco. Trend analysis of 8 to 62 years of precipitations was conducted based on statistical tests at about ten stations over the catchment. 20 to 70 years of temperature and discharge data were also analyzed. The time series were investigated using several non-parametric tests in order to characterize trends, to track down changes and their effect on agricultural land changes at the catchment scale. The present study highlights the impact of climate and catchment hydrology on agricultural practices and water resources used for irrigation. Analysis of precipitation indices showed that the temporal distribution of precipitation in the study area has changed since the 1970s. This change results from a reduction in precipitation, a shift in the hydrological year and a reduction in the number of wet days per year. Severe drought periods appear after the climatic rupture, which occurred around 1971. An increase in the intensity and frequency of droughts, in addition to an increase in the annual and seasonal average temperature (more than 1°C) were observed. Such changes contributed to agricultural practice modifications, with development of irrigated agriculture and later sowing period to adapt to the delay in the onset of the rains. For the future, the use of IPCC/CMIP5 climate projections for the Mediterranean region will help to evaluate how the precipitation indices will evolve. The impact of irrigation on stream discharge and groundwater recharge needs to be considered through agro-hydrological modeling including agricultural trajectory. Such tools will help to strengthen agricultural adaptation strategies and promote resilient farming practices.</p><p>Keywords: Precipitation trends, agricultural land use, water use for irrigation, agricultural adaptation strategies.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 709-725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina E. Bennett ◽  
Theodore J. Bohn ◽  
Kurt Solander ◽  
Nathan G. McDowell ◽  
Chonggang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
San Juan ◽  
Forest Disturbances ◽  
San Juan River ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Near and the Far Future Streamflow in the Bocheongcheon Basin of Geumgang River, South Korea

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 2516
Author(s):  
Yoonji Kim ◽  
Jieun Yu ◽  
Kyungil Lee ◽  
Hye In Chung ◽  
Hyun Chan Sung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
The Impact

Highly concentrated precipitation during the rainy season poses challenges to the South Korean water resources management in efficiently storing and redistributing water resources. Under the new climate regime, water resources management is likely to become more challenging with regards to water-related disaster risk and deterioration of water quality. To alleviate such issues by adjusting management plans, this study examined the impact of climate change on the streamflow in the Bocheongcheon basin of the Geumgang river. A globally accepted hydrologic model, the HEC-HMS model, was chosen for the simulation. By the calibration and the validation processes, the model performance was evaluated to range between “satisfactory” and “very good”. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the future streamflow over six decades from 2041 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicated significant increase in the future streamflow of the study site in all months and seasons over the simulation period. Intensification of seasonal differences and fluctuations was projected under RCP 8.5, implying a challenge for water resources managers to secure stable sources of clean water and to prevent water-related disasters. The analysis of the simulation results was applied to suggest possible local adaptive water resources management policy.

Climate change impact on water resources of the Desna river basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeriy Osypov ◽  
Natalia Osadcha ◽  
Volodimir Osadchyi ◽  
Oleh Speka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

<p>A river basin management plan has to consider climate change impact because global warming influences the water cycle explicitly. For Ukraine, only continental-scale studies or(and) global hydrological models reflect the climate change impact on water resources. Such resolution is insufficient to develop confident adaptation strategies.</p><p>This study aims to assess changes in the river runoff, water flow formation, and soil water of the Desna river basin under future climate. The Desna supply Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, with fresh water. Moreover, soil water capacity across the basin is critical for crop production, the leading sector of the region.</p><p>The framework consists of the process-based ecohydrological SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution (~12 km) regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios till the end of the XXI century. The SWAT model was successfully calibrated on water discharge from 12 gauges across the basin, then it was driven by each climate model to achieve a range of possible future scenarios. This approach better represents the hydrological processes and achieves more confident results than in previous studies.</p><p>Seven of eight models project warmer and wetter climate in the near future (2021-2050), and all models project the same in the far future (2071-2100). According to the ensemble mean, the air temperature will increase by 1.1°C under RCP4.5 and 1.2°C under RCP8.5 in the near future, and by 2.2°C under RCP4.5 and 4.2°C under RCP8.5 in the far future. Precipitation surplus will reach 5% (range from -6% to 16%) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the near future, and 8% (from 2% to 17%) under RCP4.5 and 14% (from 3% to 23%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. The discharge will likely increase (mean signal 6-8% in the near future and 10-14% in the far future) mostly due to higher groundwater inflow.</p><p>Intra-annual changes could be very unfavorable for plant growth because of lower soil water content and higher temperature stress during the vegetation period. The models agree about precipitation surplus during the cold period but, in summer, all directions of change are almost equally possible.</p><p>We consider that, among other vulnerabilities of the Desna basin, the water stress for crops will be the main issue because of the high dependence of the economy on crop production. Attention should also be paid to forest fires, eutrophication, and the concentration of organic substances in the stream</p>

scholarly journals Climatic impacts on water resources in a tropical catchment in Uganda and adaptation measures proposed by resident stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bano Mehdi ◽  
Julie Dekens ◽  
Mathew Herrnegger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Far Future

AbstractThe Ruhezamyenda catchment in Uganda includes a unique lake, Lake Bunyonyi, and is threatened by increasing social and environmental pressures. The COSERO hydrological model was used to assess the impact of climate change on future surface runoff and evapotranspiration in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment (381 km2). The model was forced with an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) simulations for the mid-term future (2041–2070) and for the far future (2071–2100), each with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the Ruhezamyenda catchment, compared to 1971–2000, the median of all GCMs (for both RCPs) showed the mean monthly air temperature to increase by approximately 1.5 to 3.0 °C in the mid-term future and by roughly 2.0 to 4.5 °C in the far future. The mean annual precipitation is generally projected to increase, with future changes between − 25 and + 75% (RCP8.5). AET in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment was simulated to increase for the future by approximately + 8 mm/month in the median of all GCMs for RCP8.5 for the far future. The runoff for future periods showed much uncertainty, but with an overall increasing trend. A combination of no-regrets adaptation options in the five categories of: governance; communication and capacity development; water, soil, land management and livelihoods improvement; data management; and research, was identified and validated with stakeholders, who also identified additional adaptation actions based on the model results. This study contributes to improving scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on water resources in Uganda with the purpose to support adaptation.

Assessing the hydrologic regime alteration of a Wadi system as a proxy on initial ecological responses to climate change and growing water demand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariman Mahmoodi ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Paul Wagner ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Hydrologic Regime ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Far Future

<p>Most Wadi systems of the world are threatened by climate change and unsustainable consumption through different water use systems (WUS) which can result in an alteration of the hydrologic regime, a deterioration of water resources, and their valuable ecosystems. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change and growing water demand on the alteration of the Halilrood River’s flow regime and the associated impacts on the ecosystem of the Jazmorian wetland in central Iran. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the flow regime of the near and far future (2030-2059 and 2070-2099). Based on 32 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) in conjunction with the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) alterations in the flow regime are evaluated. Impacts of three scenarios for future water use (No-, Constant-, and Projected-WUS) are assessed. No-WUS assumes pristine conditions in the future when no water use system are included in the model (no demand) and we only account for the impact of climate change; Constant-WUS assumes unaltered groundwater demand in the future; and Projected-WUS corresponds to the increases in the number of water use systems in the future (increasing demand). Flow regime alteration assessment indicates that climate change will severely affect the magnitude of monthly and annual extreme flows, frequency and duration of high and low Pulses in the Halilrood Basin, especially in the far future. The comparison of model simulations under different scenarios shows that the impact of climate change was more intense when growing water demand in the future is taken into account. The result of the RVA test indicates moderate and high level of changes for 18 indicators, thus likely affecting the environmental flows required for the health of the downstream wetland.</p>

scholarly journals River Temperature Evolution in Switzerland over the 21st Century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrien Michel ◽  
Jannis Epting ◽  
Michael Lehning ◽  
Hendrik Huwald
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Alpine Catchments ◽  
The Impact

<p>Climate change has and will have many impacts on natural and human systems, and many of these impacts are already well described in the literature. One impact of climate change that received less attention is the increase in river temperature, even though it is recognized as a key variable controlling the water quality of freshwater ecosystems. It influences both the metabolic activity of aquatic organisms and biochemical cycles. It is also a key variable for many industrial sectors, and favorable for the spreading of certain diseases affecting fish.</p><p>In a previous study (Michel et al., 2020) we showed a clear increase of +0.33 ± 0.03 °C per decade in water temperature over the last four decades in Switzerland. Important differences between lowland and alpine catchment were identified. Indeed, the warming rate in alpine catchments is only half of that observed in lowlands rivers. This difference is attributed mainly to the contribution of cold water from snow and glacier melt in mountainous area during summer, mitigating the impact of air temperature warming.</p><p>As a follow up, the response of selected Swiss catchments in lowland and alpine regions to the future forcing is numerically assessed using the CH2018 climate change scenarios for Switzerland. This is done using a sequence of physics-based models. The CH2018 climate change scenarios have been extended to a new set of alpine meteorological stations and downscaled to hourly resolution (Michel et al., 2021).</p><p>The results show an increase in water temperature for any of the RCP (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) scenarios and a strong impact of climate change on alpine catchments caused by changes in snowfall/melt, glacier melt, and surface albedo. Indeed, we see a rapid acceleration of the warming in alpine catchments which “catch-up” with the warming already observed in lowland catchments. This can lead to a warming of up to +7 °C by the end of the century in some alpine rivers with the RCP8.5 scenario. An important shift in the hydrological regime is also observed, particularly in high-altitude rivers.</p><p>As a result, river ecosystems will be severely impacted. In addition, the combined changes in water temperature and discharge have an important impact on the groundwater temperature annual cycle, as we discussed in Epting et al. (2021). Seasonal shifts in rivers water infiltration associated with increased groundwater recharge during high runoff periods could be an important factor affecting future groundwater temperatures.</p><p><strong>REFERENCES</strong></p><p>Epting, J., Michel, A., Affolter, A., & Huggenberger, P.: Climate change effects on groundwater recharge and temperatures in Swiss alluvial aquifers, Journal of Hydrology X, 11, 100071, 2021, doi:10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100071.</p><p>Michel, A., Brauchli, T., Lehning, M., Schaefli, B., & Huwald, H.: Stream temperature and discharge evolution in Switzerland over the last 50 years: annual and seasonal behaviour, Hydrological and Earth System Science, 24, 115–142, 2020, doi:10.5194/hess-24-115-2020.</p><p>Michel, A., Sharma, V., Lehning, M., & Huwald, H.: Climate change scenarios at hourly time-step over Switzerland from an enhanced temporal downscaling approach, International Journal of Climatology, under review</p>

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