scholarly journals Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3151-3168 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. F. Hattermann ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
O. Burghoff ◽  
W. Willems ◽  
H. Österle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Insurance Sector ◽  
Main River ◽  
Flood Damages

Abstract. The aim of the study is to analyze and discuss possible climate change impacts on flood damages in Germany. The study was initiated and supported by the German insurance sector whereby the main goal was to identify general climate-related trends in flood hazard and damages and to explore sensitivity of results to climate scenario uncertainty. The study makes use of climate scenarios regionalized for the main river basins in Germany. A hydrological model (SWIM) that had been calibrated and validated for the main river gauges, was applied to transform these scenarios into discharge for more than 5000 river reaches. Extreme value distribution has been fitted to the time series of river discharge to derive the flood frequency statistics. The hydrological results for each river reach have been linked using the flood statistics to related damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association, considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The result is that, under the specific scenario conditions, a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany in future, warmer, climate.

scholarly journals Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mook Bangalore ◽  
Andrew Smith ◽  
Ted Veldkamp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
National Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Socioeconomic Data ◽  
The City ◽  
Level Analysis

Abstract. With 70 percent of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is highly exposed to riverine and coastal flooding. This paper examines the exposure of the population and poor people in particular to current and future flooding in Vietnam and specifically in Ho Chi Minh City, using new high-resolution flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomic data. The national-level analysis finds that a third of today’s population is already exposed to a flood, which occurs once every 25 years, assuming no protection. For the same return period flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climate change may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46 percent of the population. Climate change impacts can make frequent events as important as rare ones: the estimates suggest a 25-year flood under future conditions can expose more people than a 200-year flood under current conditions. Although poor districts are not found to be more exposed to floods at the national level, the city-level analysis of Ho Chi Minh City provides evidence that slum areas are highly exposed. The results of this paper show the benefits of investing today in flood risk management, and can provide guidance as to where future investments may be targeted.

Influence of Headwater Reservoirs on Climate Change Impacts and Flood Frequency in the Kabul River Basin

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yar M. Taraky ◽  
Yongbo Liu ◽  
Bahram Gharabaghi ◽  
Edward McBean ◽  
Prasad Daggupati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Kabul River

While climate change impacts vary globally, for the Kabul River Basin (KRB), concerns are primarily associated with frequent flooding. This research describes the influence of headwater reservoirs on projections of climate change impacts and flood frequency, and how the riparian countries can benefit from storing of floodwaters for use during dry seasons. Six climate change scenarios and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used in three periods of a quarter-century each. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess how the proposed reservoirs will reduce flooding by ~38% during the wet season, reduce the flood frequency from five to 25 years return period, and increase low flows by ~110% during the dry season, which reflect an ~17.5% reduction in the glacier-covered area by the end of the century. The risks and benefits of reservoirs are highlighted in light of the developmental goals of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Book Reviews

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 559-562
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Economics

Warwick McKibbin of the Australian National University and the Brookings Institution reviews “Climate Economics: The State of the Art”, by Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth A. Stanton. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Reviews the state of the art in climate economics and its background sciences. Discusses climate science for economists; damage functions and climate impacts; climate change impacts on natural systems; climate change impacts on human systems; climate economics before and after the Stern Review; uncertainty; public goods and public policy; economics and the climate policy debate; technologies for mitigation; the economics of mitigation; and adaptation. Ackerman and Stanton are Senior Economists at Synapse Energy Economics, Cambridge, Mass.”

Optimal rainfall temporal patterns for urban drainage design in the context of climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 1170-1176 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.-T.-V. Nguyen ◽  
N. Desramaut ◽  
T.-D. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Atmospheric Environment ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Design Storm ◽  
Drainage Design ◽  
Environment Service

The main objective of the present study is to propose a method for estimating an optimal temporal storm pattern for urban drainage design in southern Quebec (Canada) in the context of climate change. Following a systematic evaluation of the performance of eight popular design storm models for different typical urban basins, it was found that the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) storm pattern and the Desbordes model (with a peak intensity duration of 30 min) were the most accurate for estimating runoff peak flows while the Watt model gave the best estimation of runoff volumes. Based on these analyses, an optimal storm pattern was derived for southern Quebec region. The proposed storm pattern was found to be the most suitable for urban drainage design in southern Quebec since it could provide accurate estimation of both runoff peak flow and volume. Finally, a spatial-temporal downscaling method, based on a combination of the spatial statistical downscaling SDSM technique and the temporal scaling General Extreme Value distribution, was used to assess the climate change impacts on the proposed optimal design storm pattern and the resulting runoff properties.

scholarly journals Climate change and maize agriculture among Chepang communities of Nepal: A review

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-66
Author(s):  
Pratiksha Sharma ◽  
Rishi Ram Kattel ◽  
Ananta Prakash Subedi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Productivity Change ◽  
Tree Plantation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

This paper reviews recent literature concerning effects of climate change on agriculture and its agricultural adaptation strategies, climate change impacts on Chepang communities and their maize farming. Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to agricultural productivity. Change in temperature and precipitation specially has greater influence on crop growth and productivity and most of these effect are found to be adverse. Climate change has been great global threat with global temperature rise by 0.83 °C and  global sea level rise by 0.19 m. Poor countries of the world are more vulnerable to changing climate due to different technological, institutional and resource constraints. In context of Nepal, practices like tree plantation, lowering numbers of livestock, shifting to off farm activities, sloping agricultural land technology (SALT) and shifting cultivation are most common coping strategies. Chepang, one of the most backward indigenous ethnic groups of Nepal are also found to perceive change in the climate. Perception  and adaptation strategies  followed by different farmers of world including Chepang  is mainly found to be effected by household head’s age, size of farm, family size, assessment to credit, information and extension service, training received and  transportation. Maize is second most important crop in Nepal in which increase in temperature is favorable in Mountain and its yield is negatively influenced by increase in summer rain and maximum temperature. Local knowledge of indigenous people provides new insights into the phenomenon that has not yet been scientifically researched. So, government should combine this perceptive with scientific climate scenario and should conduct activities in term of adoption strategies and policies to insist targeted and marginalized farmers.

scholarly journals Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 7357-7385 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Delgado ◽  
B. Merz ◽  
H. Apel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Frequency Model ◽  
Alternative Approach

Abstract. Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario – global climate model – downscaling, possibly including bias correction – hydrological model – flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires large efforts, and their complexity is high. We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario – global climate model – non-stationary flood frequency model". The underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives a nonstationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate models. The simplicity of the monsoon-flood link allows deriving large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between climate and floods is found.

Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a Ricardian valuation

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
SUNG-NO NIGGOL SEO ◽  
ROBERT MENDELSOHN ◽  
MOHAN MUNASINGHE
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Limited Range ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Net Revenue ◽  
Temperature Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Damages ◽  
Uniform Change

This paper measures climate change impacts on Sri Lankan agriculture using the Ricardian method. The model examines the net revenue per hectare of the four most important crops in the country. The limited range of temperature variation allows only a simple test of temperature impacts, but the greater range of precipitation across the country distinguishesmore complex precipitation effects.We then examine the impacts of the climate predictions of five AOGCM models and two simple uniform change scenarios for SriLanka. The impacts of rainfall increases are predicted to be beneficial to the country as a whole in all five AOGCM scenarios, but temperature increases are predicted to be harmful. Nationally, the impacts vary from −11 billion rupees (−20 per cent) to +39 billion rupees (+72 per cent) depending on the climate scenarios. With warming, the already dry regions (the Northern and Eastern provinces), are expected to lose large portions of their current agriculture, but the cooler regions (the central highlands), are predicted to remain the same or increase their output. The paper reconfirms that climate change damages could be large in tropical developing countries, but highly dependent on the actual climate scenario.

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