The effects of changing climate on estuarine water levels: a United States Pacific Northwest case study

Abstract. Climate change impacts on extreme water levels (WLs) at two United States Pacific Northwest estuaries are investigated using a multicomponent process-based modeling framework. The integrated impact of climate change on estuarine forcing is considered using a series of sub-models that track changes to oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic controls on hydrodynamics. This modeling framework is run at decadal scales for historic (1979–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods with changes to extreme WLs quantified across the two study sites. It is found that there is spatial variability in extreme WLs at both study sites with all recurrence interval events increasing with further distance into the estuary. This spatial variability is found to increase for the 100-year event moving into the future. It is found that the full effect of sea level rise is mitigated by a decrease in forcing. Short-recurrence-interval events are less buffered and therefore more impacted by sea level rise than higher-return-interval events. Finally, results show that annual extremes at the study sites are defined by compound events with a variety of forcing contributing to high WLs.

Download Full-text

The Effects of Changing Climate on Estuarine Water Levels: A United States Pacific Northwest Case Study

10.5194/nhess-2018-383 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Kai Parker ◽

David Hill ◽

Gabriel García-Medina ◽

Jordan Beamer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Spatial Variability ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Pacific Northwest ◽

Water Levels ◽

Recurrence Interval ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Study Sites

Abstract. Climate change impacts to extreme water levels (WLs) at two United States Pacific Northwest estuaries are investigated using a multi-component process-based modeling framework. The integrated impact of climate change on estuarine forcing is considered using a series of sub-models that track changes to oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic controls on hydrodynamics. This modeling framework is run at decadal scales for historic and future periods with changes to extreme WLs quantified across the two study sites. It is found that there is spatial variability in extreme WLs at both study sites with all recurrence interval events increasing with further distance into the estuary. This spatial variability is found to increase for the 100-year event moving into the future. It is found that the full effect of sea level rise is mitigated by a decrease in forcing. Short recurrence interval events are less buffered and therefore more impacted by sea level rise than higher return interval events. Finally, results show that annual extremes at the study sites are defined by compound events with a variety of forcing contributing to high WLs.

Download Full-text

Coastal wetland resilience to climate change: modelling ecosystem response to rising sea level and salinity in a variable climate

Anthropocene Coasts ◽

10.1139/anc-2018-0004 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 1-20

Author(s):

S.E. Grenfell ◽

F. Fortune ◽

M.F. Mamphoka ◽

N. Sanderson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Coastal Wetland ◽

Spring Tide ◽

Water Levels ◽

Recurrence Interval ◽

Sediment Accretion ◽

Tidal Variation ◽

The Impact

We investigate coastal wetland ecosystem resilience to sea level rise by modelling sea level rise trajectories and the impact on vegetation communities for a coastal wetland in South Africa. The rate of sediment accretion was modelled relative to IPCC sea level rise estimates for multiple RCP scenarios. For each scenario, inundation by neap and spring tide and the 2, 4, and 8 year recurrence interval water level was modelled over a period of 200 years. When tidal variation is considered, the rate of sediment accretion exceeds rising sea levels associated with climate change, resulting in no major changes in terms of inundation. When sea level rise scenarios were modelled in conjunction with recurrence interval water levels, flooding of the coastal wetland was much greater than current levels at 1 in 4 and 1 in 8 year events. In the long term, increases in salinity may cause a reduction in Phragmites australis cover. Very small increases in depth and frequency of inundation are likely to cause an expansion of samphire species at the expense of Juncus spp. The study suggests that for this wetland, variability in flow may be a key factor in balancing wetland resilience.

Download Full-text

Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-22838-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Benjamin H. Strauss ◽

Philip M. Orton ◽

Klaus Bittermann ◽

Maya K. Buchanan ◽

Daniel M. Gilford ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

East Coast ◽

The United States ◽

Hurricane Sandy ◽

Water Levels ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Economic Damage ◽

Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

Download Full-text

Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽

10.3390/w13040545 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 545

Author(s):

Alexis K. Mills ◽

Peter Ruggiero ◽

John P. Bolte ◽

Katherine A. Serafin ◽

Eva Lipiec

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Coastal Flooding ◽

Water Levels ◽

Coastal Hazards ◽

Policy Decisions ◽

Management Decisions ◽

Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

Download Full-text

Modelling the climate change impact on the largest White Sea estuarine areas

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8274 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Evgeniya Panchenko ◽

Andrei Alabyan ◽

Inna Krylenko ◽

Serafima Lebedeva

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

River Runoff ◽

White Sea ◽

Water Levels ◽

Hydrodynamic Modelling ◽

The White Sea ◽

Runoff Changes ◽

Flow Velocities

Possible sea level rise and changes in hydrological regime of rivers are the major threats to estuarine systems. The sensibility of hydrodynamic regime of the Northern Dvina delta and the Onega estuary under various scenarios of climate change has been investigated. Hydrodynamic models HEC-RAS (USA, US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center) and STREAM_2D (Russia, authors V.Belikov et.al.) were used for analysis of estuarine flow regime (variations of water levels, discharges and flow velocities throughout tidal cycles). Input runoff changes were simulated for different climate scenarios using ECOMAG model (Russia, author Yu.Motovilov) based on data of global climate models (GSM) of CMIP5 project for the White Sea region.ECOMAG modelling has demonstrated that the maximum river discharges averaged for 30-year period 2036 &#8211; 2065 can reduce for about 20 &#8211; 27% for the Onega and 15 &#8211; 20% for the Northern Dvina river compared against the historical period 1971 &#8211; 2000.Averaged minimum river discharges can reduce for about 33 &#8211; 45% for the Onega and 30 &#8211; 40% for the Northern Dvina.The White Sea level rise by 0.27 m in average (with inter-model variation from 0.20 to 0.38 m) can took place by the middle of the XXI century according to input data of GSM models. The 12 scenarios of estuarine hydrodynamic changes were simulated for the both rivers based on combining river runoff changes and sea level elevation.In general, the expected flow changes are negative for the local industry and population. According to modelling results for &#8216;high runoff/spring tide&#8217; scenarios the flooding area in the Northern Dvina delta will increase by 13-20% depending on the intensity of sea level rise. In the low water seasons the distance from the river mouth to the upper boundary of the reach, where reverse currents can be observed, will move upstream by 8 - 36 km depending of sea/river conditions due to decrease in minimum river runoff. It may adversely effect on shipping conditions at the city of Arkhangelsk and on brackish water intrusion up-to industrial and communal water intakes.The reverse currents also will intensify in the Onega estuary (tidal flow velocities increase for 11 &#8211; 19%) that leads to the change of the sediment regime and can significantly deteriorate the navigation conditions at the seaport of the Onega town. The problem of the intensification of salt intrusion can arise there as well.The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 18- 05-60021 in development of the scenarios; No. 19-35-90032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Onega; Project No. 19-35-60032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Northern Dvina).

Download Full-text

Tidal wetland resilience to sea level rise increases their carbon sequestration capacity in United States

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-019-13294-z ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Faming Wang ◽

Xiaoliang Lu ◽

Christian J. Sanders ◽

Jianwu Tang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Large Scale ◽

Accumulation Rate ◽

C Sequestration ◽

Tidal Wetlands ◽

Tidal Wetland ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractCoastal wetlands are large reservoirs of soil carbon (C). However, the annual C accumulation rates contributing to the C storage in these systems have yet to be spatially estimated on a large scale. We synthesized C accumulation rate (CAR) in tidal wetlands of the conterminous United States (US), upscaled the CAR to national scale, and predicted trends based on climate change scenarios. Here, we show that the mean CAR is 161.8 ± 6 g Cm−2 yr−1, and the conterminous US tidal wetlands sequestrate 4.2–5.0 Tg C yr−1. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely regulates the CAR. The tidal wetland CAR is projected to increase in this century and continue their C sequestration capacity in all climate change scenarios, suggesting a strong resilience to sea level rise. These results serve as a baseline assessment of C accumulation in tidal wetlands of US, and indicate a significant C sink throughout this century.

Download Full-text

Spatial variability of late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast of the United States

Geology ◽

10.1130/g30360a.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 37 (12) ◽

pp. 1115-1118 ◽

Cited By ~ 124

Author(s):

S. E. Engelhart ◽

B. P. Horton ◽

B. C. Douglas ◽

W. R. Peltier ◽

T. E. Tornqvist

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Spatial Variability ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

20Th Century ◽

Late Holocene ◽

Atlantic Coast ◽

The United States

Download Full-text

Assessing the extreme risk of coastal inundation due to climate change: A case study of Rongcheng, China

10.5194/nhess-2017-31 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Aiqing Feng ◽

Jiangbo Gao ◽

Shaohong Wu ◽

Yanzhong Li ◽

Xiliu Yue

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Water Levels ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Extreme Water Levels ◽

Extreme Risk ◽

Extreme Flood

Abstract. Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. Given the ongoing climate change, this study explored the risk of future sea-level rise on the extreme inundation by combining P-III model and losses assessment model. Taking Rongcheng as a case study, the integrated risk of extreme water levels was assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicated that the increase in total direct losses would reach an average of 60 % in 2100 as a 0.82 m sea-level rise under RCP 8.5. In addition, affected population would be increased by 4.95 % to 13.87 % and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be increased by 3.66 % to 10.95 % in 2050 while the augment of affected population and GDP in 2100 would be as twice as in 2050. Residential land and farmland would be under greater flooding risk in terms of the higher exposure and losses than other land-use types. Moreover, this study indicated that sea-level rise shortened the recurrence period of extreme water levels significantly and extreme events would become common. Consequently, the increase in frequency and possible losses of extreme flood events suggested that sea-level rise was very likely to exacerbate the extreme risk of coastal zone in future.

Download Full-text

Risk to North American Birds from Climate Change-Related Threats

10.1101/798694 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Brooke L. Bateman ◽

Lotem Taylor ◽

Chad Wilsey ◽

Joanna Wu ◽

Geoffrey S. LeBaron ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Species Richness ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Individual Species ◽

Weather Events

AbstractClimate change is a significant threat to biodiversity globally, compounded by threats that could hinder species’ ability to respond through range shifts. However, little research has examined how future bird ranges may coincide with multiple stressors at a broad scale. Here, we assess the risk to 544 birds in the United States from future climate change threats under a mitigation-dependent global warming scenario of 1.5°C and an unmitigated scenario of 3.0°C. Threats considered included sea level rise, lake level change, human land cover conversion, and extreme weather events. We developed a gridded index of risk based on coincident threats, species richness, and richness of vulnerable species. To assign risk to individual species and habitat groups, we overlaid future bird ranges with threats to calculate the proportion of species’ ranges affected in both the breeding and non-breeding seasons. Nearly all species will face at least one new climate-related threat in each season and scenario analyzed. Even with lower species richness, the 3.0°C scenario had higher risk for species and groups in both seasons. With unmitigated climate change, multiple coincident threats will affect over 88% of the conterminous United States, and 97% of species could be affected by two or more climate-related threats. Some habitat groups will see up to 96% species facing three or more threats. However, climate change mitigation would reduce risk to birds from climate change-related threats across over 90% of the US. Across the threats included here, extreme weather events have the most significant influence on risk and the most extensive spatial coverage. Urbanization and sea level rise will also have disproportionate impacts on species relative to the area they cover. By incorporating threats into predictions of climate change impacts, this assessment provides a comprehensive picture of how climate change will affect birds and the places they need.

Download Full-text

Event and decadal-scale modeling of barrier island restoration designs for decision support

Shore & Beach ◽

10.34237/1008816 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 49-57

Author(s):

Joseph Long ◽

P. Soupy Dalyander ◽

Michael Poff ◽

Brian Spears ◽

Brett Borne ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Water Levels ◽

Storm Events ◽

Model Framework ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Dune System ◽

Island Restoration ◽

Decadal Scale ◽

Wide Range

An interdisciplinary project team was convened to develop a modeling framework that simulates the potential impacts of storms and sea level-rise to habitat availability at Breton Island, Louisiana, for existing conditions and potential future restoration designs. The model framework was iteratively developed through evaluation of model results at multiple checkpoints. A methodology was developed for characterizing regional wave and water levels, and the numerical model XBeach was used to simulate the potential impacts from a wide range of storm events. Simulations quantified the potential for erosion, overwash, and inundation of the pre- and post-restoration beach and dune system and were used as a preliminary screening of restoration designs. The model framework also incorporated a computationally efficient method to evaluate the impacts of storms, long-term shoreline changes, and relative sea level rise over a 15-year time period, in order to evaluate the effect of the preferred restoration alternative on habitat distribution. Results directly informed engineering design decisions and expedited later project stages including the construction permitting process.

Download Full-text