scholarly journals Spatial distribution of water level impacting back-barrier bays

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1823-1838
Author(s):  
Alfredo L. Aretxabaleta ◽  
Neil K. Ganju ◽  
Zafer Defne ◽  
Richard P. Signell
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Barnegat Bay ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Flooding Hazard ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Spatial Estimates

Abstract. Water level in semi-enclosed bays, landward of barrier islands, is mainly driven by offshore sea level fluctuations that are modulated by bay geometry and bathymetry, causing spatial variability in the ensuing response (transfer). Local wind setup can have a complementary role that depends on wind speed, fetch, and relative orientation of the wind direction and the bay. Bay area and inlet geometry and bathymetry primarily regulate the magnitude of the transfer between open ocean and bay. Tides and short-period offshore oscillations are more damped in the bays than longer-lasting offshore fluctuations, such as a storm surge and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled water levels at stations in a mid-Atlantic bay (Barnegat Bay) with offshore water level proxies. Observed water levels in Barnegat Bay are compared and combined with model results from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to evaluate the spatial structure of the water level transfer. Analytical models based on the dimensional characteristics of the bay are used to combine the observed data and the numerical model results in a physically consistent approach. Model water level transfers match observed values at locations inside the bay in the storm frequency band (transfers ranging from 50 %–100 %) and tidal frequencies (10 %–55 %). The contribution of frequency-dependent local setup caused by wind acting along the bay is also considered. The wind setup effect can be comparable in magnitude to the offshore transfer forcing during intense storms. The approach provides transfer estimates for locations inside the bay where observations were not available, resulting in a complete spatial characterization. An extension of the methodology that takes advantage of the ADCIRC tidal database for the east coast of the United States allows for the expansion of the approach to other bay systems. Detailed spatial estimates of water level transfer can inform decisions on inlet management and contribute to the assessment of current and future flooding hazard in back-barrier bays and along mainland shorelines.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of water level impact to back-barrier bays

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo L. Aretxabaleta ◽  
Neil K. Ganju ◽  
Zafer Defne ◽  
Richard P. Signell
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Barnegat Bay ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Flooding Hazard ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Inlet Geometry ◽  
Spatial Estimates

Abstract. Water level in semi-enclosed bays, landward of barrier islands, is mainly driven by offshore sea level fluctuations that are modulated by bay geometry and bathymetry, causing spatial variability in the ensuing response (transfer). Local wind setup can have a secondary role that depends on wind speed, fetch, and relative orientation of the wind direction and the bay. Inlet geometry and bathymetry primarily regulate the magnitude of the transfer between open ocean and bay. Tides and short-period offshore oscillations are more damped in the bays than longer-lasting offshore fluctuations, such as storm surge and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled water levels at stations in a mid-Atlantic bay (Barnegat Bay) with offshore water level proxies. Observed water levels in Barnegat Bay are compared and combined with model results from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to evaluate the spatial structure of the water level transfer. Analytical models based on the dimensional characteristics of the bay are used to combine the observed data and the numerical model results in a physically consistent approach. Model water level transfers match observed values at locations inside the Bay in the storm frequency band (transfers ranging from 70–100 %) and tidal frequencies (10–55 %). The contribution of frequency-dependent local setup caused by wind acting along the bay is also considered. The approach provides transfer estimates for locations inside the Bay where observations were not available resulting in a complete spatial characterization. The approach allows for the study of the Bay response to alternative forcing scenarios (landscape changes, future storms, and rising sea level). Detailed spatial estimates of water level transfer can inform decisions on inlet management and contribute to the assessment of current and future flooding hazard in back-barrier bays and along mainland shorelines.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Determining Extreme Still Water Levels for Design and Planning Purposes Incorporating Sea Level Rise: Sydney, Australia

Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Phil J. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

scholarly journals The Role of Mean Sea Level Annual Cycle on Extreme Water Levels Along European Coastline

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3419
Author(s):  
Tomás Fernández-Montblanc ◽  
Jesús Gómez-Enri ◽  
Paolo Ciavola
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

The knowledge of extreme total water levels (ETWLs) and the derived impact, coastal flooding and erosion, is crucial to face the present and future challenges exacerbated in European densely populated coastal areas. Based on 24 years (1993–2016) of multimission radar altimetry, this paper investigates the contribution of each water level component: tide, surge and annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (MMSL) to the ETWLs. It focuses on the contribution of the annual variation of MMSL in the coastal flooding extreme events registered in a European database. In microtidal areas (Black, Baltic and Mediterranean Sea), the MMSL contribution is mostly larger than tide, and it can be at the same order of magnitude of the surge. In meso and macrotidal areas, the MMSL contribution is <20% of the total water level, but larger (>30%) in the North Sea. No correlation was observed between the average annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (AMMSL) and coastal flooding extreme events (CFEEs) along the European coastal line. Positive correlations of the component variance of MMSL with the relative frequency of CFEEs extend to the Central Mediterranean (r = 0.59), North Sea (r = 0.60) and Baltic Sea (r = 0.75). In the case of positive MMSL anomalies, the correlation expands to the Bay of Biscay and northern North Atlantic (at >90% of statistical significance). The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of a combination of all the components of the ETWLs shall improve the preparedness and coastal adaptation measures to reduce the impact of coastal flooding.

scholarly journals Validation of Sentinel-3A Based Lake Level over US and Canada

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 2835
Author(s):  
Karina Nielsen ◽  
Ole Baltazar Andersen ◽  
Heidi Ranndal
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Large Lakes ◽  
In Situ Data

Satellite altimetry is an important contributor for measuring the water level of continental water bodies. The technique has been applied for almost three decades. In this period the data quality has increased and the applications have evolved from the study of a few large lakes and rivers, to near global applications at various scales. Products from current satellite altimetry missions should be validated to continuously improve the measurements. Sentinel-3A has been operating since 2016 and is the first mission operating in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) mode globally. Here we evaluate its performance in capturing lake level variations based on a physical and an empirical retracker provided in the official level 2 product. The validation is performed for more than 100 lakes in the United States and Canada where the altimetry based water levels are compared with in situ data. As validation measures we consider the root mean squared error, the Pearson correlation, and the percentage of outliers. For the US sites the median of the RMSE value is 25 cm and 19 cm and the median of the Pearson correlations are 0.86 and 0.93 for the physical and empirical retracker, respectively. The percentage of outliers (median) is 11% for both retrackers. The validations measures are slightly poorer for the Canadian sites; the median RMSE is approximately 5 cm larger, the Pearson correlation 0.1 lower, and the percentage of outliers 5% larger. The poorer performance for the Canadian sites is mainly related to the presence of lake ice in the winter period where the surface elevations are not able to map the surface correctly. The validation measures improve considerably when evaluated for summer data only. For both areas we show that the reconstruction of the water level variations based on the empirical retracker is significantly better compared to that of the physical retracker in terms of the RMSE and the Pearson correlation.

Linking weather types to tense dewatering situations of the Kiel Canal (NOK)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinna Jensen ◽  
Jens Möller ◽  
Peter Löwe
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Kiel Canal

&lt;p&gt;Within the &amp;#8220;Network of experts&amp;#8221; of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI), the effect of climate change on infrastructure is investigated. One aspect of this project is the future dewatering situation of the Kiel Canal (&amp;#8220;Nord-Ostsee-Kanal&amp;#8221; (NOK)). The Kiel Canal is one of the world&amp;#8217;s busiest man-made waterways navigable by seagoing ships. It connects the North Sea to the Baltic Sea and can save the ships hundreds of kilometers of distance. With a total annual sum of transferred cargo of up to 100 million tons it is an economically very important transportation way. Additionally to the transportation of cargo, the canal is also used to discharge water from smaller rivers as well as drainage of a catchments area of about 1500 km&amp;#178;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The canal can only operate in a certain water level range. If its water level exceeds the maximum level, the water must be drained into the sea. In 90% of the time, the water is drained into the North Sea during time windows with low tide. If the water level outside of the canal is too high, drainage is not possible and the canal traffic has to be reduced or, in extreme cases, shut down. Due to the expected sea level rise, the potential time windows for dewatering are decreasing in the future. With a decrease in operational hours, there will be substantial economic losses as well as an increase in traffic around Denmark.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To get a better understanding of what causes tense dewatering situations other than sea level rise a linkage between high water levels on the outside of the canal and weather types is made. Weather types describe large-scale circulation patterns and can therefore give an estimate on tracks of low-pressure systems as well as the prevailing winds, which can explain surges and water levels at the coast. This analysis is conducted for one weather type classification method based solely on sea level pressure fields. Weather types derived from regionally coupled climate models as well as reanalyses are investigated.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals ENSO components of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and their relation to North Atlantic interannual coastal sea level anomalies

Ocean Science ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 535-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Park ◽  
G. Dusek
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Contribution ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Coastal Sea

Abstract. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are known to influence coastal water levels along the East Coast of the United States. By identifying empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which coherently contribute from the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to the AMO index (AMOI), we characterize both the expression of ENSO in the unsmoothed AMOI, and coherent relationships between these indices and interannual sea level anomalies at six stations in the Gulf of Mexico and western North Atlantic. Within the ENSO band (2–7 yr periods) the total contribution of MEI to unsmoothed AMOI variability is 79%. Cross correlation suggests that the MEI leads expression of the ENSO signature in the AMOI by six months, consistent with the mechanism of an atmospheric bridge. Within the ENSO band, essentially all of the coupling between the unsmoothed AMOI and sea level anomalies is the result of ENSO expression in the AMOI. At longer periods we find decadal components of sea level anomalies linked to the AMOI at three southern stations (Key West, Pensacola, Charleston), but not at the northern stations (Baltimore, Boston, Portland), with values of coherence ranging from 20 to 50%. The coherence of MEI to coastal sea level anomalies has a different structure and is generally weaker than that of the ENSO expressed AMOI influence, suggesting distinct physical mechanisms are influencing sea level anomalies due to a direct ENSO teleconnection when compared to teleconnections based on ENSO expression in the AMOI. It is expected that applying this analysis to extremes of sea level anomalies will reveal additional influences.

Improving Methodology for High-Resolution Reconstruction of Sea-Level Rise and Neotectonics by Paleoecological Analysis and AMS 14C Dating of Basal Peats

1998 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torbjörn E. Törnqvist ◽  
Mark H.M. van Ree ◽  
Ron van 't Veer ◽  
Bas van Geel
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Ground Water Level ◽  
Specific Level ◽  
High Resolution Reconstruction

Sea-level research in several submerging coastal regions has traditionally been based on 14C dating of basal peats that overlie a compaction-free substratum and can be related to paleo-(ground)water levels. Provided that an unequivocal relationship between (ground)water level and sea level can be assumed, this approach contains two sources of uncertainty: (1) the paleoenvironmental interpretation of samples is usually based on inherently inaccurate macroscopic descriptions in the field, and (2) 14C ages of bulk peat samples may be erroneous as a result of contamination. Due to the uncertainties in both the altitude and the age—the two crucial sources of evidence necessary to arrive at accurate sea-level curves—sea-level index points are therefore represented by considerable, but typically not quantified, error boxes. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) opens new perspectives for this type of sea-level research, as illustrated by a paleoecological and AMS 14C study of basal peats from a small study area in the Rhine–Meuse Delta (The Netherlands), where previous (conventional) work revealed highly problematic results. A detailed macrofossil analysis has two purposes: (1) an inferred paleoecological succession indicates a relatively accurate level of paludification of the site, and hence rise of the (ground)water level; (2) suitable macrofossils from that specific level are then selected for AMS 14C dating. In spite of very small sample sizes, our results are consistent and indicate that this approach can constitute a step forward in high-resolution reconstruction of sea-level rise. The new results further enable a revision of Holocene (ground)water gradient lines for the Rhine–Meuse Delta. A knickpoint in these gradient lines can be related to the effect of faulting. This approach therefore also has considerable potential to unravel and quantify neotectonic activity in submerging coastal settings.

scholarly journals Evolution of extreme Total Water Levels along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 613-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. F. Rasilla Álvarez ◽  
J. C. García Codron
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Total Water Level

Abstract. This paper assesses the evolution of storminess along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula through the calculation of extreme (1%) Total Water Levels (eTWL) on both observed (tide gauge and buoy data) and hindcasted (SIMAR-44) data. Those events were first identified and then characterized in terms of oceanographic parameters and atmospheric circulation features. Additionally, an analysis of the long-term trends in both types of data was performed. Most of the events correspond to a rough wave climate and moderate storm surges, linked to extratropical disturbances following a northern track. While local atmospheric conditions seem to be evolving towards lesser storminess, their impact has been balanced by the favorable exposure of the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula to the increasing frequency and strength of distant disturbances crossing the North Atlantic. This evolution is also correctly reproduced by the simulated long-term evolution of the forcing component (meteorological sea level residuals and wave run up) of the Total Water Level values calculated from the SIMAR 44 database, since sea level residuals have been experiencing a reduction while waves are arriving with longer periods. Finally, the addition of the rate of relative sea level trend to the temporal evolution of the atmospheric forcing component of the Total Water Level values is enough to simulate more frequent and persistent eTWL.

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