scholarly journals An attempt to deal with flash floods using a probabilistic hydrological nowcasting chain: a case study

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 7497-7515 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Silvestro ◽  
N. Rebora ◽  
G. Cummings
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Anticipation Time ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Meteorological Models

Abstract. The forecast of flash floods is sometimes impossible. In the last two decades, Numerical Weather Prediction Systems have become increasingly reliable with very relevant improvements in terms of quantitative precipitation forecasts. However, some types of events, those that are intense and localized in small areas, are still very difficult to predict. In many cases meteorological models fail to predict the volume of precipitable water at the large scale. Despite the application of modern probabilistic chains that uses precipitation downscaling algorithms in order to forecast the streamflow, some significant flood events remain unpredicted. This was also the case with an event which occurred on 8 and 9 June 2011 in the eastern part of the Liguria Region, Italy. This event affected in particular the Entella basin, which is quite a small watershed that flows into the Mediterranean Sea. The application of a hydrological nowcasting chain as a tool for predicting flash-floods in small and medium size basins with an anticipation time of a few hours (2–5) is here presented. This work investigated the "behaviour" of the chain in the cited event and how it could be exploited for operational purposes. The results in this particular case were encouraging.

scholarly journals A case study carried out with two different NWP systems

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 755-760
Author(s):  
P. Kållberg ◽  
A. Montani
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Screen Level ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Surface Fields

Abstract. A model intercomparison between two atmospheric models, the non–hydrostatic Lokal Modell (LM) and the hydrostatic HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) is carried out for a one-week period, including a case of cyclogeneis leading to heavy precipitation over Northern Italy. The two models, very different in terms of data-assimilation and numerics, provide different results in terms of forecasts of surface fields. Opposite diurnal biases for the two models are found in terms of screen level temperatures. HIRLAM wind speed forecasts are too strong, while LM precipitation forecasts have larger extremes. The intercomparison exercise identifies some systematic differences in the weather products generated by the two systems and sheds some light on the biases of the two numerical weather prediction systems.

A Case Study of Weather Radar Data Assimilation into the Harmonie Numerical Weather Prediction System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silas Michaelides ◽  
Serguei Ivanov ◽  
Igor Ruban ◽  
Demetris Charalambous ◽  
Filippos Tymvios
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Frontal Zone ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

<p>Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) is among the most central challenges of atmospheric prediction systems. The primary aim of such a task is the generation of accurate estimates of heavy precipitation events associated with severe weather, atmospheric fronts and heavy convective rainfalls. QPF is still among the most intricate challenges of Numerical Weather Prediction. The efforts in this direction are mainly concentrated on improving model formulations for microphysics and convective process and remote sensing data assimilation.</p><p>This paper describes the first results with the regional radar signal processing chain that provides the radar data assimilation (RDA) in the Harmonie convection permitting numerical model. This task is performed for a case study focusing on a wintertime frontal cyclone over the island of Cyprus. Reflectivity measurements from two weather radars, at Larnaka and Paphos, are exploited for simulations of severe weather conditions associated with this synoptic-scale system. Through the variational assimilation procedure, the model takes into account the atmospheric processes occurring in the upstream flow which can be outside the area of radar measurements. The focus is on the precipitable water vapor content and its changes during the cyclone evolution, as well as on the impact of the radar data assimilation on precipitation estimates.</p><p>The results show that the numerical experiments exhibit, in general, a suitable simulation of precipitable water at different stages of the cyclone. In particular, the bulk of the rainfall volume exhibits three stages: intensive rain on the cyclone's frontal zone, weaker precipitation immediately behind the front, and the secondary enhancement of rainfall. The largest corrections due to RDA are of up to 5 mm and occur during the approach of the cyclone frontal zone in a form of enhanced rainfall over the whole area, but more prominently in weak precipitation locations.</p>

scholarly journals A Bayesian approach to exploring the influence of climate variability modes on fire weather conditions and lightning-ignited wildfires

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryson C. Bates ◽  
Andrew J. Dowdy ◽  
Lachlan McCaw
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Prescribed Burn ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Climate Modes

AbstractUnderstanding the relationships between large-scale, low-frequency climate variability modes, fire weather conditions and lighting-ignited wildfires has implications for fire-weather prediction, fire management and conservation. This article proposes a Bayesian network framework for quantifying the influence of climate modes on fire weather conditions and occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires. The main objectives are to describe and demonstrate a probabilistic framework for identifying and quantifying the joint and individual relationships that comprise the climate-wildfire system; gain insight into potential causal mechanisms and pathways; gauge the influence of climate modes on fire weather and lightning-ignition relative to that of local-scale conditions alone; assess the predictive skill of the network; and motivate the use of techniques that are intuitive, flexible and for which user‐friendly software is freely available. A case study illustrates the application of the framework to a forested region in southwest Australia. Indices for six climate variability modes are considered along with two hazard variables (observed fire weather conditions and prescribed burn area), and a 41-year record of lightning-ignited wildfire counts. Using the case study data set, we demonstrate that the proposed framework: (1) is based on reasonable assumptions provided the joint density of the variables is converted to multivariate normal; (2) generates a parsimonious and interpretable network architecture; (3) identifies known or partially known relationships between the variables; (4) has potential to be used in a predictive setting for fire weather conditions; and (5) climate modes are more directly related to fire weather conditions than to lightning-ignition counts.

scholarly journals Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. T. Gouweleeuw ◽  
J. Thielen ◽  
G. Franchello ◽  
A. P. J. De Roo ◽  
R. Buizza
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Techniques ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a shift from a so-called single solution or 'best guess' deterministic approach towards a probabilistic approach based on ensemble techniques. While this probabilistic approach is now more or less common practice and well established in the meteorological community, operational flood forecasters have only started to look for ways to interpret and mitigate for end-users the prediction products obtained by combining so-called Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with rainfall-runoff models. This paper presents initial results obtained by combining deterministic and EPS hindcasts of the global NWP model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with the large-scale hydrological model LISFLOOD for two historic flood events: the river Meuse flood in January 1995 and the river Odra flood in July 1997. In addition, a possible way to interpret the obtained ensemble based stream flow prediction is proposed.

scholarly journals Distribution of precipitable water contents over Indian monsoon region

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-250
Author(s):  
V. R. DURAI ◽  
S. K. ROY BHOWMIK ◽  
H. R. HATWAR
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Time Availability ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Water Contents

This paper investigates the spatial distribution of precipitable water contents over Indian region for the southwest monsoon 2005. The precipitable water contents are derived from the objective analysis field of operational Numerical Weather Prediction system of India Meteorological Department. The study shows that the distribution of PWC is capable to capture large scale features of monsoon precipitation system. Real-time availability of this product is expected to be useful in monitoring and prediction of heavy rainfall events.

scholarly journals Covid-19 and the Search for the Common Good: The Case of Parmon Spa (Italy)

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanna Centorrino
Keyword(s):  
Common Good ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Positive Culture ◽  
Good Choice ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Common

The Covid-19 pandemic marks an extraordinary global crisis unseen in this last century, with its rapid spread worldwide and associated mortality burden, which is leading to profound economic consequences. In such an unprecedented scenario, most firms were not ready to deal with the resulting significant large-scale perturbations. Challenges for firms in the sector of the production of essential medical devices were among the most urgent. This study aims to investigate the behavior of a medium-size Italian enterprise that during this crisis, by converting part of its production line to the production of masks, undertook a path characterized by an ethics mindset, showing how its potentialities can also be used for the aim of common good. The case study is also presented to demonstrate that leadership ethical values and constant connection to the entrepreneurial ecosystem, maintaining a positive culture therein, have contributed toward a common good choice.

Mean Offshore Refractive Conditions during the CASPER East Field Campaign

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 853-874 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcela Ulate ◽  
Qing Wang ◽  
Tracy Haack ◽  
Teddy Holt ◽  
Denny P. Alappattu
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Atmospheric Boundary Layer ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Electromagnetic Properties ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Lower Height

AbstractIn this study, we use observational and numerical model data from the Coupled Air Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research (CASPER) field campaign to describe the mean refractive conditions offshore Duck, North Carolina. The U.S. Navy operational numerical weather prediction model known as the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) performed well forecasting large-scale conditions during the experiment, with an observed warm bias in SST and cold and dry biases in temperature and humidity in the lowest 2000 m. In general, COAMPS underpredicted the number of ducts, and they were weaker and at lower height than those seen in observations. It was found that there is a noticeable diurnal evolution of the ducts, more over land than over the ocean. Ducts were found to be more frequent over land but overall were stronger and deeper over the ocean. Also, the evaporative duct height increases as one moves offshore. A case study was chosen to describe the electromagnetic properties under different synoptic conditions. In this case the continental atmospheric boundary layer dominates and interacts with the marine atmospheric boundary layer. As a result, the latter moves around 80 km offshore and then back inland after 2 h.

A Family With Autosomal-Dominant Progressive Sensorineural Hearing Loss

1996 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Halpin ◽  
Barbara Herrmann ◽  
Margaret Whearty
Keyword(s):  
Speech Production ◽  
Hearing Aids ◽  
Role Models ◽  
Speech Intelligibility ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Speech Language Pathology ◽  
The Family ◽  
Patient Will ◽  
Language Pathology

The family described in this article provides an unusual opportunity to relate findings from genetic, histological, electrophysiological, psychophysical, and rehabilitative investigation. Although the total number evaluated is large (49), the known, living affected population is smaller (14), and these are spread from age 20 to age 59. As a result, the findings described above are those of a large-scale case study. Clearly, more data will be available through longitudinal study of the individuals documented in the course of this investigation but, given the slow nature of the progression in this disease, such studies will be undertaken after an interval of several years. The general picture presented to the audiologist who must rehabilitate these cases is that of a progressive cochlear degeneration that affects only thresholds at first, and then rapidly diminishes speech intelligibility. The expected result is that, after normal language development, the patient may accept hearing aids well, encouraged by the support of the family. Performance and satisfaction with the hearing aids is good, until the onset of the speech intelligibility loss, at which time the patient will encounter serious difficulties and may reject hearing aids as unhelpful. As the histological and electrophysiological results indicate, however, the eighth nerve remains viable, especially in the younger affected members, and success with cochlear implantation may be expected. Audiologic counseling efforts are aided by the presence of role models and support from the other affected members of the family. Speech-language pathology services were not considered important by the members of this family since their speech production developed normally and has remained very good. Self-correction of speech was supported by hearing aids and cochlear implants (Case 5’s speech production was documented in Perkell, Lane, Svirsky, & Webster, 1992). These patients received genetic counseling and, due to the high penetrance of the disease, exhibited serious concerns regarding future generations and the hope of a cure.

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